Reuters Poll: Bush Keeps Three-Point Lead on Kerry ( Zogby)

[OKNancy]

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush holds a slim three-point lead over Democratic rival John Kerry one week before the Nov. 2 presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

Bush led Kerry 49-46 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, maintaining a stable lead on the Massachusetts senator as the White House rivals head down the stretch. Bush led Kerry 48-45 percent the day before.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6611225

[Was_Immer]

1. From article

Bush's three-point lead is identical to the three-point margin he had over Democrat Al Gore in the tracking poll at the same stage of the disputed 2000 election.

[morphy]

13. Kerry is pulling out of Colorado...

From KOA radio this am... Kerry has pulled all ads from Colorado. Kerry spokes person said that they were going to shift some resources to the local get out the vote here in the state. Kerry also canceled a visit to Denver.

[cubsfan forever]

14. So, Mr. 1 post

You base this in....what? Your dreams? Last I heard Kerry was actually leading.

Professor 2

[otohara]

15. Actually, There Was A Small Article

in today's Denver Post, now known as Denver POS Post since endorsing Bush. Said the same thing.

Be nice:smoke:

[cubsfan forever]

17. Good point

but it is a bit odd that the person's first post was this.

Professor 2

[mac56]

20. For each of us there is a first post.

Give the benefit of the doubt until it is no longer deserved.

[northernsoul]

22. yup, we all had to pop that DU cherry at some point

:evilgrin:

[alfredo]

18. Each state is gearing up for their GOTV effort. That takes money

and will do more to move the base than TV ads. The time to change minds is ending, now is the time to Get Out The Vote.

[morphy]

23. Yes... my first post...

and is true...

[northernsoul]

21. I thought Salazar was way up in CO

pullling ads doesn't necessarily mean giving up either, like the spokesperson said maybe they're shifting their resources to making sure people get to the polls next week.

[morphy]

24. Salazar may win...

Coors is a really bad choice for the republicans... but Kerry is way down.

The Denver Post endorsed Bush (with very faint praise) and I think that was the last straw.

[robbedvoter]

35. O yeah, thousands of Kerry voters switched to W cuz the paper endorsement

That makes so much sense, it hurts!

[Sinnerman]

27. I don't Think So still to close 2call

[cubsfan forever]

30. Welcome to DU!

So, what's your take on the splitting of EVs I keep hearing about in CO? My cynical take is that the EV vote will be split only if The Chimp carries the state.

Professor 2

[cubsfan forever]

31. Errr, I meant only if Kerry

carries the state. Jeesh!

Professor 2

[progressivebydesign]

33. I think with the electoral vote shenanigans there.. he's wise..

Better to work on the states where you KNOW you'll get ALL the electoral votes.. that initiative in Colorado is draconian.

[KansDem]

34. KOA radio?

I thought they just operated camp grounds...:crazy:

[JoFerret]

40. Sounds good

- three point Bush lead over Gore that led to an actual Bush defeat. Great news for Kerry.

[truthisfreedom]

2. sigh. i'd be a lot happier at this poin if Kerry was up 5 points. i know

in my heart he's winning, though, and that's based on some factual examination by poll analyzers... cell phones make a big difference these days. all the kids have them, and don't buy regular phone service... so i guess it's up to the kids to win this time!

[trapper914]

4. Another Thing To Keep In Mind

This is totally unscientific and based on a very small sample, but I don't know of an African-American who DOESN'T own a cell phone. Some of them don't have a wired phone in their home, because they use their cell so much. They're not being polled.

Also, with the number of unemployed who have exhausted their benefits, one wonders how many cut expenses by turning the phone off at home.

[northernsoul]

19. I agree, the sample group is going to be a lot whiter and older

than the population really is.

There are lots of folks who don't have a permanent landline anymore for lots of reasons, and they're completely off the radar in these polls - and most of them are going to vote Kerry.

[enigma-e]

5. Like they say:

The kids are our future!

BTW: I love your signature!

[Sinnerman]

3. Bottom Line ... Race too close to call...

Ignore the National Polls, This is a horse race but basically it comes down to a game of chess. This Election will be determined by 3 States
Florida - Pennsylvania - Ohio

Who ever wins 2 of them will win the White House.

Kerry Will Carry PA & Will most likely carry Ohio

Kerry Wins

[truthpusher]

6. the bottom of the bottom line is...

...the polls do not include cell phone users and in most cases newly registered. I figure unless all the polls show * up by 7 points, there is nothing to worry about. Finally the only polls that really count are the state polls mostly in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.

[semillama]

28. not just the young ones are switching to cell service only

I did it myself. It was a smart move-just about the only calls I got on my normal phone line were wrong numbers and telemarketers.

didn't see why I should fork over dough for that.

of course, that also means I don't get polled - although I do get Zogby poll emails.

[BillZBubb]

8. Don't forget Wisconsin.

If Kerry wins Ohio and PA, but loses Wisconsin, we are in big trouble. Unless, that is, a miracle happens somewhere like Virginia.

If Kerry wins Ohio, PA, and Florida, it's over, he's President.

[yellowcanine]

12. Tied in Wisconsin and Iowa , Kerry up in OH, PA, FL (ARG)

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[Almost_there]

37. Can you rely on only 1 poll? Or any polls until Nov. 3rd?

I like ARG's numbers, but, are they slanted at all towards Kerry? The only reason I'm asking is that they essentially have Kerry winning in every single battleground state, except New Hampshire (where I though Kerry was winning!). I can't put all my hopeful eggs in one basket, or too much faith in any poll. Polls change on a dime, and unless you accept virtually every poll into some sort of grand average system, they can be very deceiving. Things are going great, but, don't just assume because a poll has Kerry winning in a landslide (ARG's model almost seems to predict Kerry would gather about 350 or more electoral votes) that you can rest on your laurels. Get calling!!

~Almost

[Pump Man]

7. Don't look good for Bush in MOE! VOTE http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/609274

iN MARGIN OF ERROR   WE HAVE 200 MILLION TO GET OUT VOTE

[rodeodance]

9. Arnie not commit to stump for Bush

Wonder if Bush tosses Arnie a few more carrots he will promise more stumping for him? I am surprized--as the news made it seem like Bush had Arnie in his pocket. But good news if he only goes to OHIO!!!


"http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-me-arnold26oct26,1,186375.story?coll=la-home-headlines"

Gov. Won't Commit to Stump for Bush
Schwarzenegger says he might campaign for the president in Ohio but otherwise will focus on candidates and issues at home.

By Peter Nicholas, Times Staff Writer


SAN FRANCISCO — Though he still won't commit to campaigning out of state for President Bush, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is blitzing California in the days before the election, stumping for legislative candidates and urging voters to follow his advice on a string of ballot measures.

Schwarzenegger appeared at a rally here Monday afternoon to tout an initiative, Proposition 1A, that would make it tougher for the state to tap local government revenue during financial crises. He told reporters afterward that "we haven't really made up our mind yet" as to whether he would campaign for Bush in the last week of the presidential race.

He is considering a single trip to Ohio — there and back the same day, probably Friday.

[Pump Man]

38. Are you talking about switch-hitter ARNIE -VOTEhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/

SWITCH-HITTER =AC/DC arnie going to hurt BUSH with kool-aid
drinkers

[Beetwasher]

10. Zogby Still Has the Saturday Outlier Figured Into His Numbers

On Saturday Zogby's numbers were way out of whack and had Bush up like 8 points, it was obviously an outlier and an anomalie and those data won't be used in tomorrow's numbers...

[lancdem]

11. I was about to point that out

This is the last day for that outlier to be in the sample.

[JohnnyCougar]

16. Saturday's 7-point lead for Bush* accounts for most of that lead

It will drop off tomorrow and the race will be tied.

[Almost_there]

25. Colorado will be close!!

I hope he's not dropping CO, I've seen Rasmussen having Bush up by 5 and SurveyUSA with Bush up by 7, sure, BUT!! They are a week old, and Zogby has Kerry ahead! (I don't have links, just a printout from a co-worker). I hope this is a crock that he's pulling out. He can take Colorado!!

~Almost

[West Coast Democrat]

26. Gore was down by as much as 5 pts in the Zogby tracking poll....

a week before the 2000 election. The shift for Gore came in the final two days.

I was quite surprised that the last ABC/WP tracking poll had Kerry ahead! Gore never led in that tracking poll, and was 3 pts down in their final polling.

[struggle4progress]

29. ABC/Washington Post U.S. Poll: Kerry 49%, Bush 48%

(CPOD) Oct. 26, 2004 – The 2004 United States presidential race has no clear frontrunner, according to a tracking poll by ABC News and the Washington Post. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, while 48 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. <snip>

Source: ABC News / Washington Post
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,631 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 21 to Oct. 24, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4804


Rasmussen U.S. Poll: Kerry 48.4%, Bush 46.4%

(CPOD) Oct. 26, 2004 – The 2004 United States presidential is still too close to call, according to a tracking poll by Rasmussen Reports. 48.4 per cent of respondents would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry in the election, while 46.4 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. <snip>

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 3,000 likely American voters, conducted over the course of three consecutive nights (Oct. 22-24). Margin of error is 2 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4802


It's all about GOTV. If our voters vote, we win. It's that simple.

[lakeguy]

32. what about people who refuse to say who they will vote for when

polled? my mom does that and so does at least one of my friends...both dems of course!

[Pump Man]

39. You hit it on the head, many mid-class won't answer any poll

SPEAKING OF POLLS  VOTE ON 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6092749

[w4rma]

36. Ignore the polls. They are a distraction and a waste of time that could be

spent helping Democrats get elected to Congress and Sen. John Kerry elected as President of the United States of America.

[Sinnerman]

41. MORE LIES