Zogby Poll released: Kerry/ Bush once again tied, Kerry consolidates base

[xyboymil]

B48

K47

Pollster John Zogby: "Today was a big day for Kerry, with a 5 point lead in the single day of polling. Kerry has managed to consolidate a big chunk of his base just as Bush has done on his own behalf. Kerry leads 2 to 1 among Hispanics; he is getting 90% of African Americans; 84% of Democrats; 55% of union voters; 65% of singles; and well over 50% of all voters earning under $50K."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=909

:toast: Buish was up by 3. More importantly, Kerry has solidified has base.

[Randi_Listener]

1. The fucking rout is on

Shiteater Fuckstain is out the door.

[Rose Siding]

2. Yay Yay Yay!!!!!!

For whatever ground this gains us in the media...:toast:

[Ivote]

3. Yea!

:toast: :bounce: :kick:

[BlueNomad]

4. ... blacks, women and

working people coming home to roost.....They just wanted to be certain that Kerry could kick some ass and now they know...Everyone likes an underdog, scrappy bounce back hero.....

[Claire Beth]

5. woooooohoooooo!

[JI7]

6. Kerry's best polling days seem to be in the middle of weekdays

i wonder if it has to do with the large number of singles who tend to go out during weekends so are less likely to be home during polling.

[xyboymil]

7. And next Tuesday will be his best polling day of all!!!!

[Arugula Latte]

18. Oh, you know, we liberals have lots to do on the weekends.

Gosh, that's when we score our drugs, get abortions, bribe the media for all that favorable coverage we get, hug those trees, suck off the welfare teat, and so on. :eyes:

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

36. that's also when we tend to give birth to crack babies

and worship the devil.

You forgot those.

[Arugula Latte]

46. That's right. Thanks for the reminder.

I've got the former down on my Ziggy "Dumb Stuff I Gotta Do" notepad on Saturday and the latter is set for Sunday. (Well, actually, Sunday IS Halloween, after all...)

[kurtyboy]

37. More like this

All of us hardcore DEMs are working to get out the vote on weekends! I haven't had a weekend without working for the campaign since June. It must be similar for a lot of others....

But I doubt it'd skew the polls significantly, BTW.

[displacedtexan]

8. What a crock! As if the DEM BASE needed to be solidified!

This tells me that JK is sooooooooooo far ahead that pollsters have to start showing a JK trend today, in order not to have 2000-era egg on their faces next week.

[expatriot]

13. Unfortunately, the Demo base always needs to be solidified....

Analogy:

Democrats are like cats: Independent thinkers, very hard to herd.

Republicans are dogs.... take orders well, march in lock step, etc.

[MADem]

45. Republicans are like SHEEP, not dogs

Dogs are loyal and unified. Dogs are like Democrats, too, in their own way.

Sheep go where they are told, when they are told, and are too fucking stupid to come in out of the rain.

[cubsfan forever]

19. Darn, I wanted to be

the first to say that! :-)Nicely said!

Professor 2

[TrogL]

24. THOSE are the wolves from the ads?

I moved yesterday and my cats are totally pissed off. They look more threatening than the wolves.

[The Backlash Cometh]

9. What about the MILITARY VOTE???

That's the real test. He loses the military vote and we WILL win by a landslide.

[BlueNomad]

11. I am happy you raised that...

I know folks through DOD, Pentagon etc...and the amount of sheer disdain for George Bush and Rumsfeld is unbelievable. These folks can say yes sir and go into the polls and vote no fucking way sir....Lots of high level Army folks despise the White House as do a growing number of military families....lok at Powell's ratings and then look at folks like Rumsfeld, Cheney and Ashcroft...

[AndyTiedye]

30. What Chance do Kerry Ballots Have of Being Delivered from Military Bases?

[BlueNomad]

41. don't have a clue about military base people but

the DOD, Pentagon and other workers here in DC go to polls....

[iam]

43. The military (generally) is demoralized

Coming back on a plane from a gig in Ft. Wayne, I overheard a conversation betwen two consevative DOD'ers. The conversation eventually got around the state of the military and that a lot of gung-ho conservatives in the military were demoralized because their guy had made such a mess of things.

[mumon]

10. LOOK TO THURSDAY

That's "Anything Can Happen Day."

That's the last big news-cycle day before the election.

Should be a good one for us.

Rumor has it.

[FuzzyMath]

29. "LOOK TO THURSDAY"

well i'm nervous on what could come out about kerry.

[Qutzupalotl]

33. Why?

[joefree1]

12. Boom, Boom, Boom

Out go the right!

[PATRICK]

14. The Scientific polls

are now, close to the actual election, solemnly proclaiming the obvious and declaring the inevitable- with cautious reservations.

With as much acknowledgment of reality as they could have exercised months ago without any polls.

Hire gypsies.

[Bandit]

15. 55% of Union Votes

What is wrong with those people? Are they just plain stupid? Kerry should be getting 100% support from every single Union. I don't get it. :shrug:

[fishwax]

17. I don't get that either

Most of the other numbers are encouraging/expected, but I would hope we'd pull a higher rate of union workers.

:shrug:

[cubsfan forever]

21. I thought I read somewhere

that all of the major unions had endorsed Kerry. So maybe this 55% for asswipe is skewed somewhat.

Professor 2

[ProfessorGAC]

23. Union LEADERS Provide The Endorsement

Not all union MEMBERS vote for whom the leadership would like. Just the way it is.
The Professor

[ProfessorGAC]

22. Even If Not 100%, A Lot Higher Than 55%

Remember though that technically, major league baseball players, football pros, and NBA guys are union members. Think the majority of them will vote for Dems. (Maybe the NBA since there is a preponderance of guys who grew up poor, white and black.)

Also, SAG members and Directors' Guild folks are in a "union". There are other such things.

Lastly, there are unions for some very menial employment positions which are typically filled by undereducated people. The fraction of the undereducated voters who decide on single issues is much higher than in the overall population. So, abortion, or immigration, or something else might trigger their Repub support.

Just speculating.
The Professor

[cubsfan forever]

25. Nice analysis, Professor!

Like my grandfather (a union carpenter for 44 years)used to say:
"Any workingman who votes for a Republican is a G--damn fool."

Professor 2

[ProfessorGAC]

27. Kudos To Your Grandfather

People ask me why i vote Dem. I tell them "It's because i'm highly educated."
The Professor

[cubsfan forever]

40. Thanks! n/t

Professor 2

[JusticeForAll]

26. Margin of Error is substantially greater when studying subsets!!

Don't get too excited, Margin of error increases substantially when subsets of populations are studied.

From the Department of Labor statistics: In 2003, 12.9 percent of wage and salary workers were union members. Zogby polled 1203 people for this poll. Therefore, let's assume they polled 1203 x 12.9%= 156 people.

Margin of Error becomes: 1 divided by the square root of 156
which equals

8% Margin of Error.

Read Zogby's statistic as 55% +/- 8%. Given what we know about Union voters, I would bet that Zogby's results are skewed downward from the actual population.



In the link that follows, the bullet-point section describes 'subset' polling fairly well...

http://whyfiles.org/009poll/math_primer2.html

This section discusses Margin of Error, with a good chart near the bottom:

http://whyfiles.org/009poll/math_primer.html

[DoBotherMe]

28. That's why the goose hunting

photo op. According to Carville on Leno, the hunting pix are to help the union men overcome the disconnect between saving their jobs and keeping their guns. So gun-owning hunters must make up a substantial portion of the union voting bloc.

[Upfront]

32. Gun Issue

I agree stupid, but the way it is.

[fjc]

16. I so much want to go there with yall...

but I cannot allow myself to celebrate on what amounts to a statistical tie, the improvement for Kerry not withstanding.

[cubsfan forever]

20. GOTV n/t

Professor 2

[dennis4868]

31. 50% of all voters earning under $50K?

this should be 100%

[David Zephyr]

34. Zogby Is Playing Quick Catch Up After ABC & WP Put Kerry Ahead Nationally.

So was it ABC & the Washington Post separate polls were "ahead of the curve" or is Zogby now playing catch up after playing politics with his polling?

In any event, Kerry is now ahead in every national poll and leading in the battleground polls.

Look for the terror alert to go orange or red now in the last few days.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

35. Huh!

Kerry's getting more than 84% of Democrats!!! What kind of crack do you have to be smoking to think there are more than FIVE whole Democrats in the US of A who are voting for bush?? And of those five, three are DINOs.

Sheesh.

[Nicholas_J]

38. I have noticed that Zogby tends to

Follow other polls. If other polls show a candidate in the lead, his polls tend to end up doing the same thing several days later. This happened continually before the democratic primaries.

[cubsfan forever]

42. Good point! n/t

Professor 2

[Shopaholic]

39. Kerry in a landslide!

Gosh I like the sound of that! But we've got to keep on working--GOTV--GOTV--GOTV!

[Piperay]

44. I don't think chimp has even secured

his own base otherwise he wouldn't have been out yesterday begging for Democrats to vote for him, AS IF. Chimp should have thought about those Democratic voters 4 years ago and reached out toward them instead of basically telling Democratic voters to fuck off!

[BlueNomad]

47. yeah when you start pandering for faux AMISH

votes and begging Democrats to vote for you when they are not even allowed into the event...you've got major problems!

[phattyt]

48. I smell victory!

The rout is on! Get out to vote!