STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 28 October

[ozymandius]

Thursday October 28, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 84
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 5
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 321 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 10 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1071
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 27, 2004

Dow... 10,002.03 +113.55 (+1.15%)
Nasdaq... 1,969.99 +41.20 (+2.14%)
S&P 500... 1,125.40 +14.31 (+1.29%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.09% +0.10 (+2.46%)
Gold future... 425.60 -2.20 (-0.52%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[lil-petunia]

1. sinclair closed under 7.00 yesterday,

will probably drop more today.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.53 Change +0.09 (+0.11%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH04192_2004-10-27_06-33-00_SP167084

Asia gold dips slightly; Japan seeks bullion

SINGAPORE, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Gold was a touch lower in Asia on Wednesday as the dollar rebounded against the euro, but dealers said the metal remained a safe haven amid high oil prices and worries about the U.S. economy.

Spot gold <XAU=> was at $425.60/426.35 an ounce by 0546 GMT, compared with $426.05/426.80 last quoted in New York and off a six-month peak of $430.20 an ounce on Monday.

Some dealers expected a tight $3 range in Asia and Europe with support pegged at $422 an ounce. The upside was seen at $432, a 16-year high, although a stronger dollar could delay any breach of key resistance at $430 an ounce.

<snip>

Many investors were looking past equities, which offer limited returns at the moment, Fay said at a media briefing.

"Equity will probably offer just single-digit returns or potentially negative returns," he said. "Now they are looking at commodities, they are looking at gold, they are looking at specific funds such as biotech funds."

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH32113_2004-10-28_10-25-42_L28528280

GLOBAL MARKETS-European stocks rise as oil slips, bonds down

LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - A sharp fall in oil prices boosted European stock markets and energy import-dependent Japan's yen on Thursday, but depressed government bonds as investors factored in a rosier economic outlook.

Oil continued to slide from its all-time peak of $55.67 a barrel earlier this week, falling below $52 a barrel after news on Wednesday of a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories.

"The drop in oil (will) bring out a lot of speculative short-term capital flows from the oil markets," said Daniel Birch, a strategist at brokers Execution Ltd in London.

<snip>

"The fall in oil prices was good for the dollar versus the European currencies but it was even better for the yen," said Kamal Sharma, a foreign exchange strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London.

Currency dealers remain concerned about a slowdown in economic growth and the U.S. trade and current account deficits.

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Today's reports:

Oct 28 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 10/23
report -
briefing.com anticipates 340K
market anticipates 335K
last report 329K
revised -

Oct 28 10:00 AM
Help-Wanted Index Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 38
market anticipates 37
last report 37
revised -

4:30p Money Supply

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

36. dollar is requiring dramamine today

Last trade 85.08 Change -0.36 (-0.42%)

Settle 85.44 Settle Time 23:35

Open 85.30 Previous Close 85.44

High 85.89 Low 85.04

Last tick: 2004-10-28 12:38:37 ET
30-min delayed quote.

(edited for html)

[UpInArms]

3. Buyouts, Layoffs Included in FDIC Plan to Cut Staff

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4016-2004Oct27.html

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. plans to cut 10 to 12 percent of its staff through buyouts, retirements and layoffs, the agency has told employees.

The FDIC, which has about 5,300 employees, hopes to make most of its staff reductions by the end of next year and complete them in 2006, according to a memo sent to employees by the agency's chief operating officer, John F. Bovenzi.

In some parts of the FDIC, Bovenzi said, the agency probably will have to lay off employees in order to reach its downsizing goals. About half of the staff cuts will fall on employees in Dallas and in Washington who work in the division that handles failed banks, an agency spokesman said.

Bovenzi, in his memo, said the downsizing has been prompted by bank consolidations and by internal changes, such as improved use of technology, that have made the FDIC more efficient. "I recognize the anxiety and discomfort many of you may be experiencing while reading this message," Bovenzi wrote. "The notion of undergoing another round of downsizing is troubling to everyone."

The FDIC, which insures deposits in banks and thrifts for up to $100,000, has been reducing its workforce steadily since 1999 but has usually minimized layoffs through the use of buyouts and job transfers. The job cuts will affect employees in bank oversight, administrative support, technology, budget and legal offices.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. Heh-heh, Just when you think thy are gonna need all the help they

can get. :evilgrin:

[KoKo]

26. Doesn't this make you glad that "we" have our money in those "zip-locks,"

under the mattress, in the doggie bed and just in case a little under the floorboards."

:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

4. ABB Posts Third Consecutive Profit on Asian Demand, Job Cuts

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aZUPh1OzYypQ&refer=europe

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- ABB Ltd., the world's biggest maker of power transformers, posted a third consecutive quarterly profit as demand in Asia increased and Chief Executive Officer Juergen Dormann cut costs by shedding more than 45,000 jobs.

Third-quarter net income totaled $98 million, or 5 cents a share, compared with a restated net loss of $283 million, or 24 cents a share, a year earlier, the Zurich-based company said in an e-mailed statement. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a profit of $113 million.

[UpInArms]

5. More GM layoffs point to slow sales

9,000 short-term furloughs coming

http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/gm28e_20041028.htm

General Motors Corp. has told more than 9,000 workers at five plants that primarily make SUVs and pickups that they will be laid off for a week or more early next year as the company continues to reduce production of its vehicles.

That is in addition to the indefinite layoff of 900 workers in Pontiac disclosed by GM last week.

<snip>

• Pontiac Assembly, which builds the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups. In January, GM will eliminate a third shift at the plant, which employs 5,200 hourly workers, causing the layoff of about 900 employees.

• Arlington Assembly in Arlington, Texas, which builds the Cadillac Escalade, Chevrolet Suburban, Chevrolet Tahoe, GMC Yukon and GMC Yukon XL. The plant, which employs 2,634 hourly workers, will have extended downtime during the weeks of Jan. 3, Jan. 10 and March 14.

• Janesville Assembly in Janesville, Wis., which builds the Chevrolet Tahoe, Chevrolet Suburban, GMC Yukon and GMC Yukon XL. The plant, which employs 3,180 hourly workers, will have extended downtime the weeks of Jan. 3, March 21, March 28 and April 4.

• Lansing Craft Centre, which builds the Chevrolet SSR pickup. The plant, which employs about 300 hourly workers, will have extended downtime the week of Jan. 3.

• Lansing Car Assembly, which builds the Pontiac Grand Am and Chevrolet Classic, the previous version of the Malibu. The plant, which employs about 2,170 hourly workers, will have extended downtime the week of Jan. 3.

• Oklahoma City Assembly, which builds the GMC Envoy XL, GMC Envoy XUV and Chevrolet Trailblazer EXT. The plant, which employs 2,427 workers, will have extended downtime the weeks of Jan. 3 and Jan. 10.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Lessons from 1929

75 years later, debate over whether the crash had to happen, and post-1987, if it can happen again.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/26/markets/1929crash/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The numbers are still stunning.

On "Black Monday" in October 1929, the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 12.8 percent, and the next day, "Black Tuesday," it sank another 11.7 percent. The crash of 1929 took the market down 23 percent in just two days and nearly 30 percent over six days that fall.

Things would get even worse. By July 1932 the market had plummeted almost 90 percent, and it would take 25 years before the Dow would surpass its 1929 peak.

Now, as we look back seventy-five years later, several questions come to mind: Can it happen again given the reforms instituted after the 1987 crash. And this probably unanswerable puzzler: Did the crash of 1929 really have to happen in the first place?

Economists are still exploring the dynamics that came together to create a perfect storm of panic selling that fall.

<snip>

Even in retrospect, stock valuations in pre-crash 1929 don't seem hyper-inflated, certainly not by today's standards. The price-to-earnings ratio of the market climbed from about 12 to 14 in 1928, then reached 15 in 1929, according to Harold Bierman Jr., an economist at Cornell University.

The S&P 500 today trades at 15.5 times forward earnings, according to Thomson First Call.

But if P/Es weren't quite stratospheric, the market had certainly run up considerably and fears about valuations were widespread. From March to September 1929, stocks rose almost 30 percent, capping a climb that had been going on for much of the roaring '20s.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. WrapUp by Chris Sumner & Tony Allison

Mike Hartman called in sick.


Modern Portfolio Theory Measured In An Inflated Currency

The summer of 2002 was a time when fear was gripping the markets. During this time we began to look at investments from a value perspective (Graham/Dodd) rather than the scientific or “sophisticated” asset allocation models widely accepted by many advisors and clients today. We questioned the accepted investment thesis as we observed fixed income returns (not including the asset value lost by most stocks) that were wiped out in nominal terms as the US dollar fell relative to most currencies and commodities. The investment thesis of many larger firms today subscribes to a strategy focusing on past mathematical results rather than fundamental analysis and identification of intrinsic value.

History In The Making

Mike Hartman routinely commented on the new issues of government debt to prospective buyers. The U.S. Treasury is auctioning significant new issues of debt on a routine basis. The Fed can also continue to monetize debt (www.federalreserve.gov) in the short term but in the long run no player is bigger than the market.

Summary: Any allocation seeking “safety of principal” or “income” in US dollar denominated bonds (especially with longer maturities) may present an extreme amount of risk to an unknowing investor. A sixty four year old couple may see much of their wealth confiscated due to interest rate risk, credit risk and most importantly currency risk. A “modern” portfolio theory (possibly an oxymoron in the future) may not explain why the 10-year Treasury bond is selling at these prices (low rates) given the deficits, falling U$D and new highs in commodities (inflation).

Today’s Market

There is no shortage of interesting events going on in the world today. The big story today was "plunge" of oil prices and "surge" of stocks. How nice before the elections. The Associated (collaborated?) Press ran stories entitled "Oil Prices Plunge on U.S. Inventories" and "Stocks Extend Rally As Oil Prices Plummet." Looking at Ike Iossif's charts yesterday I can only assume the term "Extend Rally" relates to some other index than the S&P Large Caps or the Dow Jones Industrial Average because we don't see an "extended rally."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

8. ExxonMobil posts 56% increase in Q3 profit

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&dateid=38288.3343300463-824961536&

DALLAS (CBS.MW) -- ExxonMobil (XOM) said its net income was $5.68 billion, or 88 cents a share, on revenue of $76.375 billion. A year ago, net income was $3.65 billion, or 55 cents a share, on revenue of $58.841 billion. Excluding special items, Exxon earned $6.23 billion, or 96 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected Exxon to earn 87 cents a share, on average.

[ozymandius]

10. I get mixed messages about this.

First, this is price gouging. It seems that with ExxonMobil showing massive profit, prices are higher than they really ought to be.

Second, one could infer that the oil companies are earning as many profits as they can while they can. A complicit Bush administration is wonderful partner in allowing this to happen.

This leads me to wonder if the fuel companies are betting that this is their only chance to make huge gains, as the Bush administration will not be around later.

[UpInArms]

18. I saw a commentary article headline

and have been searching for it - wish I had "clicked" - that (paraphrasing) said "Oil Investors want another 4 years".

hmmmm....

[UpInArms]

19. Energy Investors Clamor for Four More Years (found!)

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/stocks/melissadavid/10190813.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Energy investors certainly like the sound of four more years.

Since President Bush took office in early 2001, oil prices -- and oil stocks -- have surged to record levels. Some hold Bush, who hails from Texas oil country, at least somewhat responsible. Others dismiss his influence. But even the latter group tends to believe that Bush would do nothing to harm big energy companies during a second term in office.

Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry, on the other hand, might push for major changes.

"Either one will have to deal with $55 oil," says Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit. "But I believe we will see very slow, if any, change under Bush."

Gheit puts more weight on the election results than some other industry experts. He suspects that a Bush victory could, in fact, bring higher energy prices than a Kerry win. Still, he expects energy companies to remain extremely profitable regardless of who winds up in office.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Them bastards!!! Check out this "Bush factor" section

snip>

...He points to a "perfect storm" -- involving fears about supply disruptions in Norway, Russia and Venezuela -- as part of the explanation. But he says that Bush is responsible as well. He says the president chose to invade Iraq when oil inventories were particularly low. Moreover, he says, Bush later began stockpiling oil for the strategic reserve, and that "spooked" fast-growing countries -- such as China, India and Korea -- that rely heavily on imported fuel. From there, he believes, speculators capitalized on mounting anxieties and drove oil to record levels.

"It was almost a comedy of errors," he says. "One mistake was made, and the next seemed inevitable. ... I believe the ill-advised policies and actions of this administration have been a major contributor -- if not the cause -- of the run-up in oil prices."

Gheit suspects that a U.S. "regime change" is necessary for oil prices to correct. He has long insisted that oil carries a huge terror premium that, over time, is destined to fade.

But Ben Halliburton, a chief investment officer of Tradition Capital Management who has no link to the big energy company that bears the same name, doubts that oil will ever trade at even the $30 level for any sustained period of time. He believes that supplies are too tight -- and demand is too great -- for any return to low energy prices. He, therefore, pegs the real value of oil at between $35 and $50 a barrel.

[TrogL]

39. FOUR MORE YEARS!!!

That's what we can say in 2008.

The one place many consumers have sticker shock is at the gas pump. If we can point to the rise in the price of gasoline under a Republican administration and compare it to the moderate price under a Democratic administration, that's enough for many voters.

FOUR MORE YEARS!! :party::bounce::party:

[UpInArms]

23. Baker Hughes' profit best in six years

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF684F61D%2D5BDA%2D41BF%2DABE5%2D6A6B4CAD62A2%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Baker Hughes Inc. returned to profit in the third quarter, fueled by a 16 percent increase in revenue compared to a year ago, the petroleum-services company said Thursday.

Houston-based Baker Hughes (BHI: news, chart, profile) posted net income of $137.5 million, or 41 cents per share, reversing a loss of $98.8 million, or 29 cents, generated in the year-ago third quarter.

The company's operating profit of $137.3 million was up 52 percent from the prior year's $90.2 million, reflecting in part "record levels" of oilfield revenue from outside the United States, according to Chad Deaton, chairman and chief executive.

The latest quarter's net income "was the company's best since 1998 and was achieved despite significant disruptions of customer activity in the Gulf of Mexico due to hurricanes, in Canada due to unusually wet weather, and in Norway due to an oilfield workers strike," Deaton said in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Unocal's Q3 profit more than doubles

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B83898338%2D8191%2D4370%2DBD4A%2D39DCA85CBDAB%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (CBS.MW) - Unocal Corp. said Thursday its net income more than doubled in the third quarter with high commodity prices driving results.

<snip>

The El Segundo, Calif.-based oil and gas company (UCL: news, chart, profile) said its net income was $330 million, or $1.23 a share, compared with $152 million, or 58 cents a share, in third-quarter of 2003.

Excluding special items, aftertax earnings were $294 million, or $1.09 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected Unocal to earn 96 cents a share, on average.

Aftertax items included $38 million in tax benefits and a $16 million gain from the sale of some non-oil and gas properties. The benefits were partially offset by environmental and litigation provisions amounting to $17 million.

Worldwide oil and natural gas production averaged 407,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, down from 441,000 BOE per day a year ago.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Dynegy Q3 profit soars

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAF3205A4%2D33DD%2D46C8%2DB6A3%2D085703E56ECD%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (CBS.MW) - Dynegy Inc. reported a third-quarter profit almost 16 times better than in the year-ago period, and well ahead of analyst expectations, as high commodity prices and increased margins and volumes helped boost results.

Shares jumped 24 cents, or 5 percent, to $5.03.

As a result, Dynegy increased its 2004 earnings estimate to 20 to 25 cents a share, up from 3 to 8 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected Dynegy to earn 7 cents a share, on average, in 2004.

Houston-based Dynegy (DYN: news, chart, profile), a power generator, said it earned $78 million, or 16 cents a share, vs. $5 million, or $2.65 a share, earned in the same period a year ago.

The third quarter of 2003 included a dividend gain of $1.2 billion, or $2.64 a share, related to the restructuring of Series B preferred stock. See archived story.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Dow Chemical Q3 profit rises 86%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBBAEF9D9%2D71CC%2D4F89%2DA75A%2DC1835E66ECF0%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Dow Chemical reported an 86 percent increase in third-quarter net income Thursday, citing strong pricing momentum, but the stock fell because some investors had expected an even heftier profit.

<snip>

"Solid economic growth continues, and although demand remains vulnerable to uncertainties around oil and natural gas, we are increasingly confident that the chemical industry upturn is a reality," according to Reinhard.

By segment, performance plastics sales rose 23 percent to $2.4 billion, while performance chemicals' sales strengthened 21 percent to $1.7 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Weekly Jobs Claims up 20,000 to 350,000

8:30am 10/28/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 20,000 TO 350,000

8:30am 10/28/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG. CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL TO 3-YEAR LOW

8:30am 10/28/04 NO SPECIAL FACTORS BEHIND RISE IN CLAIMS: LABOR DEPT.

8:30am 10/28/04 U.S. WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.2%

8:30am 10/28/04 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 38K TO 2.82M

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38288.3545433449-824964509&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. initial jobless claims rise 20,000 to 350,000 By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) – Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly by 20,000 to 350,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The department could identify no special factors behind the increase. Economists were expecting only a slight increase in initial claims to about 335,000. The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 5,500 to 343,250 in the week ending Oct. 23, the lowest level in five weeks. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks rose by 38,000 to 2.82 million in the week ending Oct. 16. The four-week average of continuing claims dipped to a fresh three-year low of 2.82 million.

(edited to add newsblurb)

[Maeve]

11. In other words, things aren't getting much better

And the rosy side is--they aren't getting much worse. That is why Dubya has to run a negative political campaign--"Not as bad as it could be" isn't much of a rallying cry.

[UpInArms]

12. Dana warns of big layoffs at Caldwell plant

http://www.mariettatimes.com/news/story/1028202004_new02danaplant.asp

Noble County's largest private employer is planning significant layoffs by the end of the year, though local union members said Wednesday they had not yet been notified.
Officials at Dana Corp.'s Toledo headquarters said Wednesday that a decision on how many layoffs there will be will be made by Jan. 1. Dana Corp.'s Caldwell plant employs more than 300 people, who manufacture bushings and bearings for automobiles.

"There will be a significant number of layoffs in Caldwell and they will be permanent layoffs," said Gary Corrigan, vice president of corporate communications for Dana Corp. "We're still in discussions with the labor union and the state of Ohio so the number hasn't been fixed yet."

Mike Lloyd, Noble County economic development director, said he has heard estimates that 100 to 115 workers in Caldwell could lose their jobs. That number was not confirmed to him by the company.

...more...

From the layoff notices going out, it doesn't appear that the employment sector is going to improve any time soon. :(

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures market is off its worst levels of the morning, but continues to presage a negative start for the cash market

8:54AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Not much buying interest in the futures market this morning, which is likely to be the case for the cash market when trading begins... Expected profit taking after the recent rally and China's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 9 years, which is creating concerns about an economic slowdown there, are factors contributing to the negative disposition

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. Initial claims were weaker than expected at 350K (consensus 335K), but the data haven't caused too much disruption for the futures market, which recognizes that net new hiring has supplanted claims as the lead factor for providing direction on payrolls; moreover, traders placated by realization that the 4-wk average in claims fell to 343,250 from 348,750

8:10AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.0. Futures market action suggests the cash market will start the day on a negative note...

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.21. Stochastics and the RSI turned bullish with Wednesday's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1500.50 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low at 1426.50 would confirm that a top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 0.50 pts. at 1479 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally, which led to a test of the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.50. Stochastics and the RSI turning bullish following Wednesday's rally signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, a test of the reaction high crossing at 1127.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1108.46 would signal that this week's rebound has ended. The December S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 pts. at 1122.70 as of 5:56 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

14. Dollar yields to reality

Conversion of petro-dollars to petro-euros may drag the greenback to a record low versus the euro.

(I don't know if this article has been posted - if I am redundant, my apologies)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/25/commentary/breakingviews/bviews_hadas/index.htm

LONDON (Breakingviews) - The oil boom has introduced a new factor into currency markets one that could be the trigger for the dollar's latest downward lurch.

Oil exporters may not want to keep all of their new petro-dollars and, instead, may be turning them into petro-euros.

It has long been clear that the dollar needs to fall for fundamental reasons. The only way to sustain a high trade deficit -- and the U.S. one is at crisis levels -- is through offering attractive real interest rates to overseas dollar holders. But the U.S. real interest rate is zero.

<snip>

This time around, some of those petro-dollars may be turning into petro-euros. Indeed, market observers think that diversification of the $100 billion of Russian currency reserves lies behind the recent dollar weakness.

The trade position of the U.S. is a lot worse than they were in 1992, when the currency was at its 20-year low of $1.42 against the basket of euro currencies. Even modest selling by oil exporters would be enough to bring the dollar below that level.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

15. 9:37 EST markets are open

Dow 9,964.50 -37.53 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,962.18 -7.81 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,121.98 -3.42 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.106% +0.019

NYSE Volume 44,513,000
Nasdaq Volume 95,268,000

[UpInArms]

17. Help Wanted Index falls to 36

10:06am 10/28/04 U.S. SEPT. HELP WANTED INDEX FALLS TO 36 VS. 37

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. Sept. help wanted index falls to 36

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38288.4230710648-824973684&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The volume of help-wanted advertising in major U.S. newspapers declined in September, the Conference Board said Thursday. The help wanted index fell to 36 in September from 37 in August. Twenty-five percent of 51 major markets saw rising volumes of employment advertising, down from 49 percent in August.

[UpInArms]

21. 10:17 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,965.46 -36.57 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,965.81 -4.18 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,122.36 -3.04 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.112% +0.025

NYSE Volume 289,539,000
Nasdaq Volume 382,959,000

10:00AM: Market shows early resilience to selling pressures...not all that surprising given the strong gains of the past two days and further significant decline in oil prices this morning...volume is moderate...a notable active stock is Ask Jeeves (ASKJ 26.39 -8.60)... it is down after giving a disappointing earnings report relative to the strong reports from other search engine companies...NYSE Adv/Dec 828/1164, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 808/1454

9:40AM: Stock indices open a bit weaker futures indications...oil is down another 86 cents today, and the earnings reports were good overall, so the action is seen as a modest sell-off in response to the strong gains of the past two days...the SOX semiconductor index is only down 0.2% despite a large drop in LSI Logic (LSI 4.35 -0.41) after its poor earnings report...

[KoKo]

27. .."a modest sell off in response to gains." Ha! Traders making their

bundle after napping for a week.

modest sell-off in response to the strong gains of the past two days...

[UpInArms]

22. Dollar drifts as data, China rate mulled

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB8A33C17%2DBBAE%2D4CEC%2D9DE4%2DC3BA834BE980%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar trimmed its modest decline in the wake of an economic report issued Thursday that showed a rise in weekly first-time U.S. jobless benefits applications along with a drop in the less-volatile four-week average.

The dollar was quoted at 106.40 Japanese yen in morning trading vs. 106.32 yen before the report. The greenback remained 0.1 percent lower against its Japanese counterpart compared to late-Wednesday U.S. trading.

The euro was quoted at $1.2698 vs. $1.2719 before the report. The dollar thus also remains 0.1 percent lower against Europe's shared currency compared to Wednesday.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly by 20,000 to 350,000 last week, the Labor Department said. Economists had been expecting only a slight increase, to about 335,000.

But the closely watched four-week moving average of new claims fell by 5,500 to 343,250 in the week ended Oct. 23, the lowest level in five weeks. The four-week average of continuing claims dipped to a fresh three-year low of 2.82 million. See Economic Report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. 11:04 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,980.05 -21.98 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,967.82 -2.17 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,123.72 -1.68 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.087% +0.000

NYSE Volume 499,484,000
Nasdaq Volume 621,735,000

11:00AM: The potential slowdown in the Chinese economy after rate hikes there is hurting some commodity stocks on the theory that slower demand will hurt commodity pricing...that's fine, but the idea that lower oil prices are thus not a benefit to the US economy, as some analysts are suggesting, is a real stretch...a continued decline in oil prices would help ease fears about future economic growth substantially...the market continues to show good resilience to profit-taking pressures...NYSE Adv/Dec 1084/1818, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 924/1760

10:30AM: The big international news is the China has raised interest rates...this has pressured bonds globally...it reflects a desire by the Chinese government to avoid a boom-bust scenario for its economy...more moderate Chinese economic growth could also ease pressures on global commodity prices, including oil...which happens to be down 65 cents today...the 10-year note is off 7/32 to yield 4.11% and traders are suggesting a strong GDP report tomorrow could push bond prices even lower...NYSE Adv/Dec 1251/1532, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1004/1529

[UpInArms]

29. 11:28 EST numbers (all better now!)

Dow 10,004.39 +2.36 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,972.21 +2.22 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,126.61 +1.21 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.082% -0.005

NYSE Volume 593,544,000
Nasdaq Volume 718,316,000

[UpInArms]

32. 12:04 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,993.92 -8.11 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,967.33 -2.66 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,125.17 -0.23 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.074% -0.013

NYSE Volume 715,646,000
Nasdaq Volume 852,225,000

12:00PM: Stocks opened slightly lower on profit-taking after the two-day run, then the indices rebounded to move slightly into positive territory before dipping again as oil prices moved higher...there were well over 200 earnings reports after the close yesterday and this morning, but they provided no broad impact to the market...Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 48.89 -0.06) and Verizon (VZ 38.88 -0.52) both reported better than expected profits...so did Aetna (AET 95.85 +4.10) and Dow Chemical (DOW 44.05 -0.96)...

oil prices were down 85 cents in early trading, but that provided no help, and as that reversed to a 15 cent increase by mid-day, stocks hardly reacted as well...China raised interest rates, which has pushed global bonds lower, and hurt commodity stocks...the idea is that the Chinese economy will cool down, thereby decreasing demand for commodities which could lead to lower prices...by mid-day, the indices were little changed, which is not a bad result at all considering the gains of the past two days...the action has been tame, and volume is moderate...DreamWorks Animation (DWA 37.41 +9.41) went public today and the stock has jumped...

Delta (DAL 5.67 +0.73) reached a tentative wage concession agreement with its pilots...

[54anickel]

34. Ha-ha-ha. A decline in oil prices isn't going to help the US economy as

long as the US$ purchasing power is declining right along with it. Sounds more like an even-steven trade-off to me. But then again, what do I know. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

31. Crude futures turn higher; natural-gas prices rally

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38288.4943695139-824983050&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December crude is up 14 cents at $52.60 a barrel in New York, after falling to a low of $51.29 in overnight trade. Concerns over the possibility of slower demand growth from China following the country's first interest- rate hike in nine years lingered, but traders were also relieved by Wednesday's reported climb in U.S. crude inventories, analysts said. Meanwhile, December natural gas is up 4.4 percent at $9.16 per million British thermal units after a reported 26 billion-cubic-foot increase in last week's stocks.

[UpInArms]

35. CNNfn to close down in mid-December, says CNN

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38288.528301713-824986883&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- CNN, a division of Time Warner (TWX) , will shut down its CNNfn cable television business channel, said CNN spokeswoman Edna Johnson in the company's Atlanta headquarters. A memo sent to staffers by Jim Walton, president of the CNN News Group, said the move will take place in mid-December. Walton cited the increasing competition in the television business-news industry since CNNfn's 1995 launch as a major reason for the decision.

what will they do with all of the whoring cheerleaders?

[54anickel]

38. HA! Maybe they know something we don't?

[ozymandius]

52. There is something they know.

I know it too. All sections of the CNN family are getting at top-to-bottom reassessment. Underperforming sections of the company are being reworked or tombstoned. CNNsi (Sports Illustrated) was tomstoned two years ago. All freelancers, company-wide, are gone as of the end of the year. Headline News is seeing a huge shakeup, including the loss of several full-time veteran personnel.

They are trying to make broadcast news on the cheap.


Meanwhile, the new Time Warner broadcast facility in New York is experiencing a hiring boom with all the production jobs that are moving out of Atlanta.

[KoKo]

48. Oh My! Remember when I said CNBC might have to auction off it's glitzy

new set on E-Bay! CNNfn is the first "shoe to drop?" Sounds like this is a cautionary sign that things are gonna get baaaad out there for the Financial Entertainment Pushers....and for the markets in general..

[KoKo]

49. Now that I had time to read whole article...there's more that's

interesting about this. The article says Ruppert Murdoch is going to do his on Financial Show on Dish TV which CNNfn couldn't compete with but then the article goes on to say this:

Business news was hot when CNNfn began in December 1995 and watching the stock market became sport. When the Internet bubble burst on Wall Street, much of that interest disappeared; CNBC's ratings plunged and haven't revived.

Because of its weak distribution, CNNfn didn't receive ratings from Nielsen Media Research.

Management turmoil didn't help. When Lou Dobbs left in a feud with management in 1999, CNNfn lost its best-known personality at a key moment. Dobbs, whose nightly newscast is shown on both CNN and CNNfn, returned in 2001.

That year, CNN also announced the network would change its name to CNN Money. But the idea was quietly dropped after another management change. CNN Money remains as a Web site.

Recently, CNNfn shifted focus away from Wall Street toward personal finance. Some of its programming, including the real estate series "Open House" and personal finance talk show "Dolans Unscripted," will move to the main network.

[UpInArms]

37. 1:20 EST numbers and blather (clinging to 10,000)

Dow 10,002.40 +0.37 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 1,968.82 -1.17 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,126.13 +0.73 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% -0.034

NYSE Volume 917,500,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,064,287,000

1:00PM: The market shows continued resilience as the S&P 500 index pushes back into positive territory, helped by strength in airlines and insurance...Delta (DAL 5.67 +0.73) is the boost to airlines, as it reached a tentative deal with its pilots to cut costs, and Aetna (AET 95.79 +4.04) is boosting the insurance sector after its strong earnings report...volume is about average, but decliners have a good lead on the number of advancing issues...NYSE Adv/Dec 1389/1718, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1147/1748

12:25PM: Indices remain in fairly tight range...there are plenty of earnings releases after the close today, and some tomorrow morning, but the big release coming up is the third quarter real GDP numbers tomorrow morning...expectations are for a very strong number of 4 1/2% to 5%...this follows a 3.3% gain in the second quarter, and gains of over 4% in the prior two quarters...the pickup in the growth rate is expected due to a rebound in consumer spending trends as well as a continued strong trend in business investment, which is running at over a 10% growth rate this year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1340/1731, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1141/1746

[nolabels]

44. Money gangsters have set that 10,000 mark as a tread water mark

Frankly the more I look at it, the less and less it would think it would have anything to do with real economy. It seems to me like sort of like sticking a thermometer in somebody to see if there is something wrong with them. It might tell you something, but then again there might be something wrong and it would tell you nothing.


http://www.misspitasdomain.com/parties/

[RawMaterials]

40. The dollar's Achilles' heel

The United States is now borrowing about $540 billion per year from the rest of the world to pay for the overall deficit funding Americans' consumption of goods and services and US foreign transfers. This unprecedented current-account deficit is paid through direct lending and the net sales of US assets to foreign business or persons: everything from stocks and bonds to corporations and real estate. The United States imports roughly $4 billion of foreign capital each day, half of that to cover the current-account deficit and the other half to finance investments abroad. At 5.4% of GDP in the first quarter of 2004, the deficit is substantially higher than its previous record (3.5% of GDP) in 1987, when the dollar fell by a third and the stock market took its "Black Monday" plunge...

The Economist magazine recently summed it up this way: "China's boom is itself partly the product of the Fed's super-lax monetary policy. With its currency pegged to the dollar, China has been forced to import America's easy monetary conditions. Its higher interest rates have attracted large inflows of capital that have inflated domestic liquidity, encouraging excessive investment and bank lending in some sectors which could lead to a bust."

With the Fed now in a tightening mode, the music in China could soon end. And the scramble "back into cash" from "commodities, stocks, and real estate", as Kindleberger describes, could soon begin. When it does, it's very bad news for the buck.

When the US financial markets cratered in early 2000 after one of the biggest financial parties in the history of mankind, the Fed quickly stepped in to fill the void with liquidity. This is why the so-called "emergency" Fed funds rate of 1.0% materialized. The Fed made it clear to all it would err on the side of creating global asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate to stave off the bogeyman of global deflation. Well, the Fed succeeded beyond anyone's wildest expectations at the time.

To get a sense of the massive liquidity created by the Fed, consider that Asian central banks are now sitting atop an estimated $2.2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves - double their 2002 total. In other words, Asian banks were able to recycle $1.1 trillion into US Treasury bonds - driving yields lower and creating a virtuous circle for US consumers - increasing US demand for Asian exports.

As Treasury bonds soared and US demand rose, stocks revived. "It's the 1990s again," rattled the talking heads on CNBC. But the big winner in this liquidity game was global real estate. "The world is sitting on top one of the biggest property bubbles in history, with the biggest bits in China and the US, in my view," says Xie.

There is nothing new in what we are seeing in China. Massive lending funneled into property and commodities speculation: it's the classic boom-bust credit cycle. The late economist Ludwig von Mises wrote:

....

So because the fed just keeps prolonging the natural correction of markets, this is going to lead to a super correction.

[RawMaterials]

41. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FJ14Dj01.html

[ozymandius]

42. Welcome GoldOilCrude!

Thank you for this thoughtful post. And welcome to DU! :toast:

[ozymandius]

43. I've been out most of the day. Who'da thunk that this was all just a setup

for a sucker rally?

So one may have thought that lowering oil prices eased pressures on recovering our economic health, precipitating higher stock values. Wrong. The rise in stock prices were evidence of some people looking to make a quick buck exploiting other people's emotions on the oil event.

[RawMaterials]

45. market before the election

something is propping up the market waiting for the election, trying to keep the incumbent in office. There is no "real" reason we should be over 10000 this week.

[ozymandius]

50. Two things on the subject have weighed heavily on me.

The former market "fixer" at the White House called "Fisher the Fixer". Here's a brief NY Post summary of what this guy did.

http://moneycentral.groups.msn.com/QQQMoneyCentral/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=2906&LastModified=4675429691644813727

WALL STREET IS NOT HAPPY AT LOSING FISHER THE FIXER
By JOHN CRUDELE

-cut-

People who really live the stock market considered Fisher their life preserver. He's the guy who - rumor has it - would jump in and take action if the market started to sink.
...
Fisher used to be a top official at the New York Federal Reserve Bank, where he was the liaison with Wall Street firms.
...
A very odd piece of information for the Fed to leak. Its officials aren't supposed to interact with traders and "swap" intelligence isn't that the same thing as inside information?

I wonder what happened to this guy and who took his place. History tells us that the Federal Reserve chairman has the official role of propping up markets.

The second issue involves the S&P. Someone or something is propping up the S&P. That entity is 990N, as reported by John Mackenzie.

Received this message from a member of my investment forum who is currently on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange :

" Only have a minute but, write more later but... The entire S&P price action in the Futures is being controlled by one counter party. All the guys strongly hate them: their CME clearing number is 990N and they clear through Gelber trading.

That one account is solely responsible for the current level of the S&P.

They are the ones that are throwing the S&P up overnight.

Then they are the ones that are sitting on the bid all day long, supporting the market action. The S&P pits have been decimated, absolutely ruined.

There is no volatility, so all the traders have left.

...more...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/jmackenzie061704.html

Who???

[loudsue]

51. That's pretty wild, Oz. I wonder .......

This should be BIG NEWS!!!

:kick::kick:

[ozymandius]

46. closing numbers

Dow 10,004.54 +2.51 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,975.74 +5.75 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,127.44 +2.04 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.08% -0.007
NYSE Volume 1,630,992,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,809,779,000

[TrogL]

47. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


004-09-28 Tuesday, September 28 0.784068 USD
2004-09-29 Wednesday, September 29 0.785546 USD
2004-09-30 Thursday, September 30 0.790639 USD
2004-10-01 Friday, October 1 0.791828 USD
2004-10-04 Monday, October 4 0.785793 USD
2004-10-05 Tuesday, October 5 0.792079 USD
2004-10-06 Wednesday, October 6 0.794155 USD
2004-10-07 Thursday, October 7 0.795102 USD
2004-10-08 Friday, October 8 0.799233 USD
2004-10-12 Tuesday, October 12 0.795229 USD
2004-10-13 Wednesday, October 13 0.791139 USD
2004-10-14 Thursday, October 14 0.798212 USD
2004-10-15 Friday, October 15 0.798722 USD
2004-10-18 Monday, October 18 0.796813 USD
2004-10-19 Tuesday, October 19 0.797321 USD
2004-10-20 Wednesday, October 20 0.804376 USD
2004-10-21 Thursday, October 21 0.804764 USD
2004-10-22 Friday, October 22 0.80782 USD
2004-10-25 Monday, October 25 0.817528 USD
2004-10-26 Tuesday, October 26 0.816593 USD
2004-10-27 Wednesday, October 27 0.816127 USD
2004-10-28 Thursday, October 28 0.820075 USD






The loonie's on another tear.

Missed the daily CBC economics report, but here's some other blather (which I don't particularly buy into)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Despite overnight weakness December remains above broken weekly resistance crossing at .8060. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this fall's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 1991-2002 decline crossing at .8260 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10- day moving average crossing at .8044 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.