STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 29 October

[ozymandius]

Friday October 29, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 83
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 4
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 322 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 11 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1072
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 28, 2004

Dow... 10,004.54 +2.51 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 1,975.74 +5.75 (+0.29%)
S&P 500... 1,127.44 +2.04 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... .08% -0.01 (-0.17%)
Gold future... 426.10 +0.50 (+0.12%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.12 Change -0.16 (-0.19%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH56556_2004-10-29_10-41-58_L29710181

FOREX-Dollar eyes by US outlook, hits 6-mth low vs yen

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a six-month low against the yen and drifted near recent eight-month lows versus a rising euro on Friday as investors considered the effect of China's interest rate hike on currencies and the U.S economic outlook.

The euro also got a brief push higher after euro zone data showed inflation in the 12-nation region surged to 2.5 percent in October, further above the European Central Bank's goal, due to soaring oil prices.

And investors were gearing up for U.S. gross domestic product data due at 1230 GMT for hints about the pace of economic recovery.

"The main theme today is continuation of the recent trend, meaning dollar weakness," said Bilal Hafeez, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank in London.

"The rate rise in China on the margin increases the risk of people revising downward their global growth forecasts, but we aren't revising ours. And it does not tell you anything about revaluation."

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH56110_2004-10-29_10-15-16_RAJ921716

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares hit by earnings, dlr falls after China

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - European shares fell on poor earnings news on Friday as investors looked past China's surprise rate hike to key U.S. Q3 gross domestic product data for the next read on the health of the world's largest economy.

The dollar hit a six-month low against the yen and drifted near recent eight-month lows versus the euro on hopes of a revaluation of the Chinese yuan which is broadly expected to put downward pressure on the greenback.

NYMEX crude oil futures slipped for a third day to a 3-1/2-week low of $50.47 and helping brighten the outlook for global growth which has been darkened by soaring oil prices, stubbornly above $50 a barrel.

Markets were also anticipating a healthier economic picture being unveiled with the release of the U.S. GDP data at 1230 GMT and Michigan consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI reports later in the afternoon. This hurt sentiment in the bond market.

...more...

Today's Reports:

Oct 29 8:30 AM
Chain Deflator-Adv Q3
report -
briefing.com anticipates 1.5%
market anticipates 1.6%
last report 3.2%
revised -

Oct 29 8:30 AM
Employment Cost Index Q3
report -
briefing.com anticipates 1.0%
market anticipates 1.0%
last report 0.9%
revised -

Oct 29 8:30 AM
GDP-Adv. Q3
report -
briefing.com anticipates 5.0%
market anticipates 4.3%
last report 3.3%
revised -

Oct 29 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 88.0
market anticipates 88.0
last report 87.5
revised -

Oct 29 10:00 AM
Chicago PMI Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 58.0
market anticiaptes 59.0
last report 61.3
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

8. All eyes on US Q3 GDP number at 12:30 GMT

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100400/content.asp?menu=indices&dia=29102004

All eyes on US Q3 GDP number at 12:30 GMT. USD remains weak despite rallying stocks and crude oil price drop.
Chinese rate hike yesterday ruffles the surface, but currencies are right back to where they started...

<snip>

The People's Bank of China raised rates yesterday (by 0.27 bps to bring the deposit rate to 2.25%) for the first time in 9 years and this set off a flurry of activity in the currency markets. At first, traders considered it bearish for world fixed income as world treasury markets were immediately hit for sizable losses. The USD strengthened on this, but within an hour it was all over with and the USD weakened right back to where it came from as treasuries found support. The reason for the reversal may be that traders considered it bearish for global growth prospects to see China tightening. All of the logic escapes me. The only thing it shows me is that the PBOC step is a step towards a revaluation of the CNY and this will eventually be very USD bearish - especially versus Asia. Expect more rate increases to come. This is being underlined by the very strong JPY overnight, which would likely be much stronger still if the BoJ weren't intervening.

But for the very short term, the Chinese rate situation is trumped by the important numbers today - especially the US GDP number, as the market will likely pivot on this number. An as expected to weakish number will likely bring on a further USD sell-off while a much stronger than expected number could do the opposite. Also important is the Chicago PMI, which is a much more up-to-date number, though it is only a regional indicator. We still lean on the USD bearish scenario - but if bonds sell-off today, this scenario has little chance of survival...

Be patient on the numbers, however, because next Tuesday's election looms and a move either way could quickly be reversed!

<snip>

USD/JPY - fell below 106.00 and may be seeing considerable intervention today as the BoJ is likely on the bid. Strong US data today will favor the JPY - though USD/JPY would like stay relatively stable on positive data (while EUR/JPY could sell-off in this instance). First resistance is 116.25.

...more...

[UpInArms]

2. Reports are in (and looking grim)

Reports

8:29am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 BENEFIT COSTS UP 1.1%, SMALLEST SINCE Q1 2002

8:29am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX UP 0.9% VS 1.0% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 SAVINGS RATE 0.4%, LOWEST SINCE DEPRESSION

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 REAL DISPOSABLE INCOMES UP 1.4% VS. 2.4%

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 11.7% VS. 12.5%

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 4.6% VS. 1.6%

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 PCE CORE PRICE INDEX UP 0.7%, 42-YEAR LOW

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 PCE PRICE INDEX 1.1% VS. 3.1%

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. GDP UP 3.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR VS. 4.9% IN Q2

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 GDP ACCELERATES TO 3.7% FROM 3.3% IN Q2

8:30am 10/29/04 U.S. Q3 GDP UP 3.7% VS. 4.3% EXPECTED

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.3542382523-825079559&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

U.S. Q3 GDP increases 3.7% vs. 4.3% expected By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) – The U.S. economy grew at a less-than-expected 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter after growing 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were expecting gross domestic product to grow 4.3 percent. Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate while business investment grew at a 11.7 percent rate. The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.3541987732-825079512&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

U.S. Q3 ECI up 0.9% vs 1.0% expected By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) – U.S. employment costs increased 0.9 percent in the third quarter after a 1.0 percent gain in the second quarter, the Labor Department reported Friday. The increase in the employment cost index was slightly below expectations. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for the employment cost index to rise 1.0 percent. Year-on-year, the employment cost index rose 3.8 percent in the third quarter, down from a 3.9 percent rise in the second quarter. Benefit costs rose 1.1 percent in the third quarter, the smallest increase since the first quarter of 2002. Wages and salaries rose 0.7 percent in the July- September quarter. Over the past year, wages rose 2.4 percent, a record low.

[UpInArms]

17. UMich Oct Sent revised up to 91.7 vs 87.5

9:47am 10/29/04 UMICH OCT. CONSUMER SENTIMENT REVISED TO 91.7 VS 87.5

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. Oct. Chicago PMI surges to 68.5%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.4201990162-825087625&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Business activity in the Chicago region expanded robustly in October, according to a survey of purchasing managers in the region. The Chicago PMI jumped to 68.5 percent from 61.3 percent in September, a 17-year high. Economists were expecting a rise to 61.6 percent. The production index rose to 79.7 percent, the new orders index rose to 79.4 percent, and employment rose to 54.1 percent.

will keep looking for the full report

[punpirate]

3. Now, if Texas were run by...

... Ben Sargent, it would be a much more interesting state. :P

[UpInArms]

4. Pilots at Delta take 33pc cut in pay

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1032710;s=rollingnews.htm

Pilots have agreed a USD1bn cost cutting programme at the troubled US airline Delta.

They hope the deal will save it from bankruptcy.

Under its terms, the pilots will accept a 33pc pay cut in return with options to buy 30m Delta shares.

The airline's chief executive Gerald Grinstein describes the pact as a "crucial step" in securing its future.

However, he warned that bankruptcy was still a possibility.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

5. What can $2-million do for your office?

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/10/29/Business/What_can_2_million_do.shtml

Michael Ovitz, who had a brief but extremely lucrative career as president of Walt Disney Co. in the mid 1990s, might emerge as the latest embodiment of corporate spending run amok.

Though it has been eight years since his abrupt termination from Disney in December 1996, the sordid episode is being rehashed in Chancery Court in Georgetown, Del., thanks to a shareholder lawsuit.

Investors have sued Disney and Ovitz over an estimated $140-million severance package the onetime top Hollywood talent agent received after just 14 months with the entertainment company. While that gold-plated parachute might seem excessive, it followed a pattern of extravagant spending by Ovitz while he was in office, the lawsuit claims.

Among the allegations of misspending were Ovitz's personal use of the corporate aircraft to the tune of $650,000, charged to the company tab. He billed the company $100,000 for his season tickets to Lakers and Dodgers games and $350,000 for home entertainment, including "home-catered breakfasts."

The plaintiffs' piece de resistance: the $2-million renovation of Ovitz's office at Disney headquarters in Burbank, Calif.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Japan deflation struggle nears end

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/news/international/japan_economy.reut/

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's five-year bout with deflation is likely to end next year, the Bank of Japan said Friday, but investors expressed concern that a surprise rise in Chinese interest rates could hurt Japanese exports.

Nationwide consumer prices are expected to rise 0.1 percent in the fiscal year starting April 1, the central bank said in its much-anticipated semi-annual report on prices and the economy.

"An end to deflation is nearing, but I cannot say when," Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui told a news conference.

<snip>

The BOJ has pledged to maintain its quantitative easing framework -- in which it floods the market with liquidity and keeps short-term rates near zero -- until the year-on-year change stabilizes above zero percent.

Data released Friday showed that nationwide consumer prices were flat in September from a year earlier, compared with expectations of a fall of 0.1 percent.

But Tokyo-area core CPI, which precedes the nationwide data by a month, showed a 0.3 percent fall in October.

"You can't really say Japan has defeated deflation just because you have a few months of higher prices or just because the BOJ's outlook report shows expectations of a modest rise in prices," said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Amerock tells of (450) layoffs

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0410290356oct29,1,5965777.story?coll=chi-business-hed

Workers at Amerock Corp. in Rockford have been told they will be out of a job in 60 days. The maker of hardware for cabinets and windows announced in February that it planned to close the plant and lay off all 450 of its factory workers, but did not give a time line for the cuts. Amerock's parent company, Newell Rubbermaid Inc., moved its headquarters to Atlanta from Freeport last year. Amerock's clerical services, including distribution, customer service and human resources, were expected to remain in Rockford, but the company did not say for how long.

[RawMaterials]

9. GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.7 instead of forecast 4.2

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6660463

Stock futures initially fell on the data, then returned to earlier levels. S&P 500 futures were near unchanged, about even with fair value accounting for dividends, interest rates and time to expiration on the contract, indicating the market would open near unchanged.

"The numbers will not cause a major sell-off," said John O'Donoghue, managing director of listed trading at CSFB.

"The numbers are not massively to the upside, but it is not going to cause anything major. The futures may bounce back. I won't surprised if the market ends flat to slightly up later," O'Donoghue said.

The GDP report from the Commerce Department was one of the final pieces of economic data before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election in which the economy's condition has been a focal point. The data indicated generally that a solid expansion remains in place.

Stocks have risen three days in a row despite looming uncertainty about next week's election. A Reuters/Zogby poll on Friday showed President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat.

[UpInArms]

11. U.S. GDP disappointing, economist Brusca says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.3840166088-825083137&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Although gross domestic product grew at an above-trend 3.7 percent in the third quarter, the U.S. economy was "a bit off its game," said Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics. "Any GDP growth rate that does not create jobs in the amount averaging 150,000 per month is a growth rate that is not high enough. Period," he said. "This is the fourth quarter IN A ROW in which GDP has grown faster than disposable personal income, not a trend that can be sustained."

Hi GoldOilCrude! Good to have you in the SMW with us :hi:

[54anickel]

18. Amazing, ain't it?

Discretionary income is creeping along, savings at an all time low, but consumer spending is UP! Sounds like the little consumer is again being set up to take the entire blame when this house of cards collapses. Those damned consumers spent every dime they had on "stuff".

Yeah, but what "stuff"? Sure, I think a lot of people might have been a bit excessive in those boom years. But now with the price of everything going up, despite the spinmeisters dinkin' with the numbers, the are spending those buck-a-roos on necessities.

So where are they getting those extra bucks their spending anyway? It's gotta be a lot of credit - Friggen Monopoly money. I remember playing that game as a kid. Sometimes it the game would go on for so long - we'd run outta Monopoly money to play with. We'd just call GAME OVER.

[RawMaterials]

40. monopoly money

I remember playing with my cousin's the one time one of them went into his
room, then came back. we later discovered that he went in an got more monopoly money out of a different game. Just like the fed just keeps printing money. games are unwinable when playing with people that can change the rules,and cheat without repercussions.

[Trojan]

23. The October Surprise

The Chicago number was 68... The highest in 50 Years...Of course it will be revised after the Election (Unreal)

[UpInArms]

26. and check out the Chicago PMI

I smell something icky :wrinklingnose:

[UpInArms]

10. (San Diego) News of auditor's warning stirs up campaigns

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20041029-9999-1n29audit.html

Revelations that San Diego's independent auditor has privately warned that the possibility of illegal activity at City Hall has not been fully explored hit the mayor's and city attorney's races yesterday like a rock slamming into a hornet's nest.

Accounting giant KPMG said the failure of the city to broadly investigate its finances – including circumstances leading to a $1.17 billion pension deficit – makes it impossible for it to release a widely anticipated audit of the city's 2003 books.

The lack of this audit is being closely watched by Wall Street and led a leading credit-rating agency to suspend San Diego's rating last month.

<snip>

Among the irregularities were failure to fully disclose the nature and depth of the pension system deficit caused primarily by benefit hikes, underfunding and investment losses.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

12. The 9 - 11 Commission Hearings (2009)

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37158

snip>

· In November 2008, Hilary Clinton was elected President in a landslide victory. Her message was simple, “Do you want the Republicans to continue destroying your economic future?” She promised a full and complete investigation of how America, the lone superpower, had been reduced to such a sorry economic state. “The American people deserve a comprehensive explanation,” she declared.

· In her inaugural address, the new President reiterated her pledge to convene an impartial commission to determine the cause and find remedies for America’s crisis. After much partisan wrangling, the investigative panel was convened in November, 2009. Some media wonk dubbed it the second 9-11 Commission and the moniker stuck.

The “star witness” during the second 9-11 Commission hearings was Dr. Alan Greenspan. As the chief steward of U.S. monetary policy for almost two decades, it was felt that he deserved a healthy chunk of the blame for the current sad state of affairs. Dr. Greenspan, although in his mid-80s, was in good health. More importantly, not seeking public office anymore, he was not going to take any guff from anybody.

Here are some excerpts from the hearings record.

Commission Chairman: “Dr. Greenspan, thank you for appearing before the panel. Let me get straight to the point. The overall responsibility of the Federal Reserve has always been to maintain a strong financial and monetary system. And yet, your legacy, after almost two decades at the helm, is a system in tatters. Our currency has never been weaker, our debts never higher, and our financial institutions never closer to bankruptcy. What happened? Why did you and the Federal Reserve fail so utterly?”

[UpInArms]

14. waaaa???

link???

I want to read more :D

[54anickel]

20. DOH!, Sorry I added the link. 2nd time this morning I forgot that.

Caught myself the first time.

[54anickel]

15. Greenspan: Playing the Fool Or the Scoundrel?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7975-2004Oct28_2.html

snip>

In 1990, he underestimated the economic impact of the bursting of a commercial real estate bubble and the ensuing credit crunch, which combined to throw the economy into recession.

And during the late 1990s, he was so busy touting the productivity miracle of the new economy that he failed to see the biggest equity bubble in history developing right under his nose. And when it finally burst and began to take the real economy down with it, Captain Greenspan was confidently predicting a soft landing almost until the moment the wheels came off the landing gear.

As it turns out, Greenspan is a better rhetorician than he is a forecaster. In his recent speeches and testimonies, he cleverly frames his what-me-worry message in apposition to the more extreme doomsayers who warn that the world is about to run out of oil or that foreign investors are about to trigger a financial meltdown by dumping their dollar assets. He's also careful to include hedges and caveats that he can point to when things don't turn out as swimmingly as he suggests.

But through it all, the consistent message is that global financial markets have become so gloriously efficient and flexible in pricing risk and intermediating capital that they can cushion any shock, correct any imbalance and cure your lumbago besides. In the World According to Greenspan, the only real threats come from those who would tamper with this machinery by reversing the march toward deregulation, open markets and the free flow of capital.

Unfortunately, what Americans desperately need now is not a Fed chairman pushing an ideological agenda -- not a Paul Wolfowitz of economic policy -- but a clear-eyed pragmatist willing to tell Americans the truth that nobody else dares: That they are living beyond their means, that their profligacy has put the global economy out of whack and that the only way to avoid a bad ending is to save more, import less, raise taxes and accept lower levels of government services and benefits.

[ozymandius]

30. Believe in me. I will tell you what 'is' is.

Did I ever express what revulsion this man evokes in me?

A wordsmith. A grandfather archetype to some. A shrewd businessman - in the worst sense of the word.

His only allegiance is to political ideologues that get all rheumy-eyed when waxing nostalgic on the days of the robber barons. Greenspan has profited handsomely from his influential position while setting an example for stewardship that this failed Bush administration has co-opted. When things do not turn out like you prophecied, explain it away through condescension and rhetorical devices. Rhetorical devices that play on the emotions and implied lack of knowledge among those willing to give you an audience.

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. At the end of pre-market trading, still looks like a marginally lower open for the cash market... Two more economic reports await traders at 9:45 ET and 10 ET - the revision to October Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Chicago PMI Index, a regional manufacturing report.

8:57AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures indications bounce off their lows, although still signal a slightly lower start... Recognition that the Q3 GDP figure - from an absolute perspective - was not a bad number and relief that the chain deflator (at 1.3% versus the consensus of 1.6%) did not show much inflation have curbed the selling pressure.

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Futures trade begins to slip away on the heels of the weaker than expected advanced Q3 (Sept) GDP report... The figure came in at 3.7%, which is an improvement from Q2 at 3.3%, but still below the consensus estimate of 4.3%... As such, the indices are poised for a modestly lower open.

8:04AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures trade possess a slightly negative tone, which should translate into a negative start for the indices... Traders continue to take a cautious stance following Tuesday and Wednesday's large gains on the indices, and what has been a losing session in Asia (Nikkei -0.8%)... Better than expected earnings reports from names like AVP have provided a supportive influence, though.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.21. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1500.50 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low at 1426.50 would confirm that a top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 2.00 pts. at 1487.50 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the June- August decline crossing at 1125.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, a test of the reaction high crossing at 1132.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1110.78 would signal that this week's rebound has ended. The December S&P 500 Index was down 0.80 pts. at 1126.60 as of 5:54 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

16. 9:35 EST markets open (everybody's happy!)

Dow 10,016.27 +11.73 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,977.17 +1.43 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,127.44 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.054% -0.026

NYSE Volume 27,626,000
Nasdaq Volume 58,301,00

well, except the dollar

Last trade 85.04 Change -0.24 (-0.28%)

[RawMaterials]

19. This proubly isnt the place but o well, to buy or not to buy a house

I'm married, Im 25, and i want to buy a house.
The proublem is I dont want to be stuck buying a house that eather drops in value or puts me in a postion were i cant make payments(great depresion 2). On the other hand I dont want to Miss the opertunity to get a 30 year morgage at 6-7%. I have a good stable job, but my wife is still in school and money is tight. what do you guys think, and what would you do if you were in my shoes. should i just wait it out and keep renting.

[54anickel]

29. Hi GoldOilCrude,

We do not like to offer any type of advise here on the SMW thread. I certainly can understand your position. It is becoming increasingly scary to be taking on any debt these days.

You may want to try posting your question in the Economics Forum. Lots of friendly helpful people over there with a variety of viewpoints and experience. :hi:

[RawMaterials]

34. thanks

[54anickel]

21. Snazzier houses bring energy crisis home to middle class

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1028/p01s02-usec.htm

snip>

These examples may be extreme, but they're indicative of the "SUVing," as some people call it, of the American home. And they show one reason why utility bills, even before the first inflated one this winter, are going up.

The old homestead - and not just the kind with seven baths - is increasingly filled with multiple refrigerators, plasma TV sets, and lap pools. The result is that this year's energy woes, more than ever, are hitting the American middle class and upper middle class as well as the poor.

snip>

Home heating-oil prices are 60 percent higher than a year ago. Propane, often used by rural and lower-income families, is 30 percent higher.

snip>

For the average family, these higher prices may be a wake-up call. In 2000, ACEEE estimated the average home budget for energy was about $6,000, split evenly between fueling the family car and heating the hearth. Now, that number is estimated to be between $8,000 and $9,000, Mr. Elliott says.

"All of a sudden this is a big chunk, particularly for the lower-income and fixed-income households," he says.

more...

[ozymandius]

24. WHAT THE TRANSPORTS AND INTERNETS ARE TELLING US -

WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

WHAT THE TRANSPORTS AND INTERNETS ARE TELLING US -
Planes Trains and Balloons

Is there a reason why the transports are behaving so funny relative to the other stocks? I looked for clues in the charts that I will discuss in tonight’s Wrap-Up. There has been a lot of debate as to whether the surge in the transportation stocks is foretelling good times ahead or whether their stock-action is just a flash in the pan. While I don’t have any definitive conclusions, there are some interesting relationships and chart behavior of the transports that are worth examining. There are also some interesting charts in Internet leader stocks that may provide clues as to the sustainability of the stock market rally. So why go down this road without a definite conclusion and/or investment idea? It will give us something to focus on while we wait for economic realities to grip the stock market. Until that changes, may be suddenly, all you have to know about the stock market is, “buy Google, it’s a great web site,” and “listen to Kudlow and Kramer.” I’m hoping that this article will give you something to keep your gray matter active.

-cut-

Dow Transportation Average Goes Parabolic

Below is a 3-year weekly chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. It bottomed with the general stock market in March of 2003, and then surged in a steep uptrend until roughly New Year’s Day 2004. Yet when the broad market topped in January, the transports continued in a consistent uptrend. Before the August 2004 rally in the general stock market, the transports went into an even steeper uptrend that has broken the upper trendline of the longer-term uptrend.



-cut-

Today’s Market

Most of the major stock market indices finished near the flat line today. Oil down. CNBC now routinely posts the price of oil in the same continuous manner that they post the major index values. Something is wrong with that picture. The 10-year note was little changed. The XAU and the HUI were each down about 1.5%. Gold was up $0.70 at 424.60, and silver was down a penny at 7.16/oz. The dollar index was down 0.22 at 85.23.

-cut-

Finally, never has it been more true that short-term, the stock market is a voting machine, and long-term it is a weighing machine. It may therefore be possible to take Kudlow and Kramer’s advice for a successful short-term trade. Yet, for decisions geared to the long-term, it would probably be a wise choice to lag these two.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

25. 10:12 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,015.08 +10.54 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,973.40 -2.34 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,128.09 +0.65 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.057% -0.023

NYSE Volume 226,652,000
Nasdaq Volume 308,380,000

10:00AM: Market gets a boost from the 4.2 point upward revision to Michigan Consumer Sentiment... The October reading checked in at 91.7 (consensus of 88.0) as consumers expressed more confidence in the state of the economy, but the final result still represented a decline from September (at 94.2)... Elsewhere, the Chicago PMI Index was leaked a few minutes earlier, coming in at 68.5 - a huge increase from 61.3 in September and a solid beat of the consensus estimate of 59.0...

The bullish number has sent the indices higher across the board, with computer hardware, cyclical, utility, and basic material pacing the advance...NYSE Adv/Dec 1632/898, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1221/1102

9:40AM: Major indices move slightly higher at the open as buyers remain generally reluctant in light of the huge gains observed over Tuesday and Wednesday, and a weaker than expected advanced Q3 (Sept) GDP report this morning... The piece of data checked in at 3.7% - below the consensus estimate of 4.3% but better than Q2's figure of 3.3%... A rebound in consumer spending (+4.6%) counterbalanced the effect of higher energy prices... Additionally, the Q3 chain deflator was relatively benign at 1.3% (consensus of 1.6%) and helped curb concerns about inflation...

The final two economic reports will be released soon: the revision to October Consumer Sentiment (consensus of 88.0) at 9:45 ET and the October Chicago PMI (consensus of 59.0) at 10 ET...

[54anickel]

27. Big Insurer Denies Any Ties to Plan to Attack Spitzer

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/29/business/29spitzer.html?oref=login

snip>

A Washington agency that represents public speakers sent e-mail messages to four financial industry experts on Monday, offering them fees of at least $25,000 if they would attack Mr. Spitzer and defend the insurance industry. Two weeks ago, two A.I.G. executives pleaded guilty to criminal involvement in what Mr. Spitzer described as a widespread conspiracy to cheat customers.

In its e-mail message, Leading Authorities, the speakers' bureau, said it was making the offer on behalf of American International. "We have had an inquiry from A.I.G. for assistance in getting the insurance industry's side of the story out to the public," wrote Mark French, the president of Leading Authorities.

Yesterday, Mr. French and a spokesman for A.I.G. said the e-mail was incorrect. A.I.G. did not know of the offer, they said.

Mr. French said he had sent out the e-mail at the behest of Qorvis Communications, a Washington public relations firm that until Monday worked for A.I.G. Qorvis hoped to identify possible insurance industry supporters, Mr. French said. "We had simply responded to their request for potential people," he said. "We never spoke with A.I.G., and I've had no communication with them."

Joe Norton, a spokesman for American International, said A.I.G. had not and would not offer to pay supposedly independent experts to attack Mr. Spitzer.

more...

[54anickel]

28. GM to idle 5 plants, 10,300 of its workers

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0410290354oct29,1,5179343.story?coll=chi-business-hed

General Motors Corp. said it will temporarily idle five plants early in 2005, idling about 10,300 workers as well, because the company expects to have an oversupply of sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks. Spokesman Dan Flores said the temporary shutdowns involve plants in Janesville, Wis.; Arlington, Texas; Oklahoma City; and Lansing, Mich.

[ozymandius]

36. This does not surprise me (about GM).

This is like the 1970s all over again. Because of a complicit Republican Congress, in refusing to even address raising the CAFE standards and other issues, thousands are out of work.

I was unaware that Lansing had any more jobs to lose.

[UpInArms]

31. Clear Channel Earnings Plummet 60 Percent

http://www.forbes.com/business/businesstech/feeds/ap/2004/10/29/ap1621032.html

Clear Channel Communications Inc.'s third-quarter profit fell nearly 60 percent from the same period in 2003, which had been inflated by the nation's largest radio station operator's sale of its stake in a Spanish-language broadcasting network.

Clear Channel said Friday that it earned $261.2 million, or 44 cents per share, in the three months ended Sept. 30, down from $636 million, or $1.03 a share, in the year-ago period.

Thomson First Call said the consensus of industry analysts it surveyed was for earnings of 43 cents per share for the most recent quarter.

Clear Channel's year-ago results reflected gains on its sale of its stake in Univision Communications Inc. Without the one-time gains, Clear Channel's third-quarter profit in 2003 would have been $237 million, or 38 cents per share.

...more...

If Clear(ly for Bush) Channel(ling) goes silent, my heart would not break.

:nopity:

[54anickel]

32. Greenspan, not a sturdy, floppy-eared workmate (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty102904.html

- It was a busy, weird week, as are most weeks here lately, it seems. Nothing seems to make sense anymore. The Fed increased Total Credit by a couple billion, Bought Outright another billion in government bonds, convinced foreigners to keep buying our debt to the tune of $6 billion, the Treasury increased total national debt by another few billion, the banks continued issuing mortgages by another 9 billion. Yet all these debt securities went up in price, and thus the interest rates went down on that debt!

All of this while the dollar continued falling and gold went up. Like I said; weird.

- And speaking of Alan Greenspan, and although the surveillance tapes show that we were not speaking of Alan Greenspan, in my Mogambo Mind (MM) I am always speaking to, or about, Alan Greenspan, and that is why I said "And speaking of Alan Greenspan." I am now referring to a speech entitled "The Mortgage Market and Consumer Debt" that he delivered to the America's Community Bankers Annual Convention, Washington, D.C. He said that everything, especially in the housing sector, is just peachy, but finally allows that there are "pockets of severe stress within the household sector that remain a concern and we need to be mindful of the difficulties these households face."

He has created the money that created the mortgages that created the inflation in house prices and everything else has caused "pockets of distress," and yet he wants US to be "mindful"? With a snarl, I demand "What in the hell is THAT supposed to mean, anyway?" How about if the Mogambo says "I was stimulating the ammunition manufacturing sector and the aluminum siding businesses of the United States and was shooting off a few thousand rounds around the whole town, but especially at a few houses in a 'pocket' over on 34th Street, so we ought to be mindful of their 'difficulties.' "

But let me try that crap one lousy time and they send the SWAT team over here, barricading themselves outside my house, and then we yell at each other awhile, where one thing leads to another and pretty soon everything starts going downhill pretty quick, and then I wake up a few weeks later in some secret military installation someplace with a throbbing headache, spilling my guts about what I know about flying saucers and how space invaders are assuming our identities with these big vegetable pods while we are sleeping.

- John Hussman of the Hussman Funds (and I think it is more than coincidence that a guy named Hussman works for a financial company named Hussman. I mean, what are the odds?) says "In my view, earnings are simply the wrong unit to place at the center of the analysis. What matters, very simply, is the stream of cash that investors actually have a claim upon, after all obligations to other stakeholders have been met."

more...

[UpInArms]

33. Delta Woes Flown In From Saudi Arabia

http://www.forbes.com/work/2004/10/29/cx_da_1029topnews.html

NEW YORK - Recent reports on the Delta Air Lines pilots' agreement focus on the carrier's pilots being the highest paid in the industry and on the possibility that the company may still declare bankruptcy, despite the $1 billion cost-cutting deal, according to its Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein.

But the pilots' salaries, which will be chopped by 32.5% starting Dec. 1, are not new. What is new (or relatively new) is the persistence of the decline in the business of all airlines, not just Delta (nyse: DAL - news - people ), and the runup in fuel prices.

The starkest item in reality facing the airline industry is that its business has yet to recover to pre-Sept. 11, 2001, levels. Another big problem is fuel costs. While Delta, like other airlines, cut about $600 million in costs between 2001 and 2003 (even before the recent changes in labor agreements), its fuel costs at the same time went up by about $120 million. Given that oil prices have increased by roughly three-quarters in a year, the fuel expense for 2004 will be much worse. Salaries and related costs increased, too, by $210 million, but that was largely because of pension expenses and pre-existing labor contracts.

The biggest impact on Atlanta-based Delta has come from items it cannot control. The overall level of airline business for 2003 was still about 10% lower than 2000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airline traffic for July, the latest month available, was up 7.9% over a year earlier, the BTS said. If the trend holds, 2004 airline traffic may match 2000 levels. In the four years before 2000, traffic was up about 19%, which is more in line with historical norms.

...more...

I recall KindaSleazy stating that warning the public about flying prior to 9/11 would have "destroyed the airline industry" - my goodness! Look how well that stratergie worked out. :eyes:

[54anickel]

35. Another big repo Thursday 16.25 Biggins

Still haven't figured out why Thursdays have become the big repo day the last couple of months. :shrug:

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[UpInArms]

37. 11:22 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,004.84 +0.30 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 1,966.09 -9.65 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,125.54 -1.90 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.053% -0.027

NYSE Volume 492,523,000
Nasdaq Volume 617,226,00

11:00AM: Equities continue to sport losses, albeit slight ones in the morning session... The Dow is trading right around its 10,000 mark as a run at yesterday's highs/its 50-day exponential moving average at 10044/10056 has proved largely unsuccessful... Buyers have been somewhat hesitant this morning despite the strong economic numbers found in Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI... The large rally observed during mid-week, combined with a slight increase in the price of crude oil (to $51.05/bbl), has instilled the basically flat tone of trading...

Advancers are essentially split with decliners at the NYSE...NYSE Adv/Dec 1472/1459, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1085/1621

10:25AM: Sellers use the run-up in the indices following the strong Chicago PMI Index as a reason to book profits... After peaking at 10 ET, the market has deteriorated noticeably as semiconductor reverses course and posts notable losses... Nonetheless, several manufacturing-related industries (basic material, cyclical, and machinery) have marcher higher as the Chicago PMI spiked to 68.5 (consensus of 59.0)... The October figure jumped to a 16-year high as both new orders and production surged to levels just below 80...

This suggests there could be upward surprise in Monday's ISM Index (the national manufacturing report)...SOX -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1628/1136, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1115/1419

dollar jumping up

Last trade 85.30 Change +0.02 (+0.02%)

Settle 85.28 Settle Time 23:32

Open 85.18 Previous Close 85.28

High 85.37 Low 85.00

Last tick: 2004-10-29 10:49:22 ET
30-min delayed quote.

If I didn't know better, I would suspect a bit of intervention from some central banks :eyes:

[UpInArms]

43. 12:18 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,007.78 +3.24 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,969.03 -6.71 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,126.36 -1.08 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% -0.043

NYSE Volume 652,392,000
Nasdaq Volume 777,905,000

12:05PM: It's been a morning of whipsaw trade - the market opening with noticeable gains and then dropping much lower for slight losses at mid-day... The market's inability to sustain its bid has stemmed from a number of reasons, but center upon (1) the sharp rally seen Tuesday-Wednesday (2) a slight increase in the price of crude oil to $51.05/bbl and (3) a sense of caution ahead of the Presidential Election on Tuesday and the October employment report on Friday....

Nonetheless, several economic reports from October have come back with strong readings - as demonstrated by Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI today... The latter leapt to 16-year highs at 68.5 (consensus of 59.0) as two leading components - new orders and production - surged to levels just shy of 80... The October Consumer Sentiment number was also revised higher, to 91.7 (consensus of 88.0), and suggested consumer optimism was brightening... News of these numbers (including an early leak of Chicago PMI) sent the market blazing higher in the first 30 minutes as traders rushed to cover shorts...

However, the Dow hit resistance at yesterday's high/its 50-day exponential moving average, which prompted broad-based selling across the indices... Tech and health care have emerged as the weakest groups, although some of their losses have been offset by gains in energy (off the crude oil price rise) and basic material (off the dollar's fall to 6-month lows against the yen)... In other economic reports, Q3 (Sept) GDP was released at 8:30 ET and proved to be an initial disappointment to the market...

dollar losing its shine

Last trade 85.10 Change -0.18 (-0.21%)

[UpInArms]

38. ChevronTexaco's 3Q profit soars 62%

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2004-10-29-chevrontexaco_x.htm

SAN RAMON, Calif. — ChevronTexaco's (CVX) third-quarter profit improved 62% as the oil giant continued to cash in on record-high oil prices.

The company said Friday that it earned $3.2 billion, or $1.51 a share, the three months ended in September. That compared with net income of $1.98 billion, or $1.01 a share, last year.

<snip>

The performance continued a recent roll for ChevronTexaco, which is well on its way to the most prosperous year since the company's inception in 1879.

<snip>

The spike has squeezed household budgets as gasoline prices climbed above $2 a gallon. In California — typically the nation's most expensive gasoline market — prices at the pump have gushed above $2.50 a gallon in some cities.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Oil, gas prices boost Anadarko's Q3

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B319F9F1E%2D4B53%2D482C%2DA182%2D48878FAC992D%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Anadarko Petroleum Corp., riding a nearly one-third increase in the per-barrel price of oil, posted third-quarter profit growth of 45 percent, the company said Friday.

<snip>

Houston-based Anadarko's net income rose to $399 million, or $1.58 per share, up from $274 million, or $1.09 per share, earned in the third quarter of 2003.

...more...

[UpInArms]

39. U.S. drug prices highest in West (81% more than rest of world)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2CB0202B%2D0DED%2D4EDA%2DBD81%2DDA0027B36495%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Americans pay an average of 81 percent more for brand-name prescription drugs than people in Canada and seven European countries, said a study released this week.

The report, by Boston University's School of Public Health, suggested that the price differential has been steadily growing since 2000, when the average cost gap was 60 percent.

The study, including 1,000 patented drugs such as Pfizer's (PFE: news, chart, profile) cholesterol-lowering Lipitor, showed the most dramatic variances were with Italy, with Americans paying 118 percent more for their prescription drugs, and France, with patients stateside paying 108 percent more..

"The U.S. government lets drug makers freely raise prices," said the report's authors. "Other nations limit prices and costs through price negotiations, across-the-board price cuts, reference pricing, profit caps, putting drug spending on a budget and other methods," they said.

Proponents of U.S. price controls argue that skyrocketing prescription drug prices are a main culprit in out-of-control health care costs.

The U.S. drug industry has vehemently resisted the policy. Drug companies say price controls would cripple innovation and take away the market incentives at the heart of a robust industry. U.S. pharma reportedly produces as much as 70 percent of the world's drug supply.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Lehman agrees to pay $222.5m to settle Enron suit

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.483169537-825095283&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Lehman Brothers (LEH) agreed to pay $222.5 million to settle an Enron securities class action suit, the University of California said Friday. UC is the lead plaintiff in the suit that charged Lehman with making misstatements about Enron's business when it underwrote securities offerings for the bankrupt energy trader. The settlement is subject to court approval. Bank of America settled similar claims for $69 million this past July.

[UpInArms]

44. Rep. Frank seeks report about Fannie Mae regulator

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.5033026157-825097513&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., on Friday asked Fannie Mae's (FNM) regulator to allow the release of an outside report about alleged leaks by the regulator concerning Fannie. Frank earlier asked the Department of Housing and Urban Development to release its report about the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, but the agency denied the congressman's request. OFHEO recently charged Fannie Mae, the mortgage finance giant, of bending accounting rules to make its earnings appear smooth.

Gee, why should anyone be able to understand what the reports the taxpayers pay for anyway :shrug:

:nuke:

[RawMaterials]

45. New $1 billion Ford plant set for Oakville, Ont

"We'll continue working with industry, labour and the research community towards our goal of building the most productive workforce in North America," said Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, who was on hand for Friday's announcement.

"We know that the best workforce will attract and keep the best jobs and investment, that will build prosperity and support a great quality of life," he said.

Details of the Ford plan are still being finalized, but it could see the new plant employing 4,000 workers by the fall of 2006.

The plans call for a "flexible" manufacturing site where production of one model can be quickly changed to another to accommodate shifts in consumer preference

DaimlerChrysler is expected to announce in the coming days that it will add 900 jobs to its Brampton, Ont., assembly plant.

The Chrysler expansion could come as early next year as the company expands production to meet strong demand for LX sedans made there

cant anyone remember when japan wanted to be a service economy with no manufacturing?

[RawMaterials]

46. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1099063843054_94473043

[UpInArms]

47. 2:18 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,007.56 +3.02 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,970.03 -5.71 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,126.81 -0.63 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.039% -0.041

NYSE Volume 944,973,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,097,761,000

2:05PM: Stocks remain stuck in the same narrow range they have been over the past four hours... Sectors continue to trade in erratic fashion - with little cohesiveness among industry groups... Some areas of health care, for instance, have shown relative strength (health care payer), whereas others have trailed behind... Biotech has been one of the biggest losers, with most of the blame falling on ImClone Systems' (IMCL 43.41 -2.54) shoulders... The stock was downgraded to Sell from Hold by Smith Barney following its Q3 (Sept) earnings report yesterday...

Shares declined meaningfully that day too as US Erbitux revenues (the company's leading drug) came in softer than expected...NYSE Adv/Dec 1696/1496, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1249/1723

1:30PM: Major indices continue to hug the flat line in what has been a lackluster day of trade... Given the run-up seen this week - which came after several weeks of losses - investors have sat back to assess the situation... Briefing.com continues to believe that the market will move in a more convincing fashion after the winner of the Presidential election is announced... With that event behind it, traders will be free to focus on the earnings and economic picture with one more 'uncertainty' behind them... Presently, S&P forecasts call for Q3 (Sept) earnings to increase, on average, 16%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1591/1567, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1223/1716

1:00PM: Still a flat market during the lunch hour as traders leave early to start their weekend... That fact helps explain the modest volume levels (in comparison to the rest this week) as well as the mixed breadth figures...

dollar sinking

Last trade 84.90 Change -0.38 (-0.45%)

Settle 85.28 Settle Time 23:32

Open 85.18 Previous Close 85.28

High 85.37 Low 84.90

Last tick: 2004-10-29 13:48:10 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[RawMaterials]

50. Dow points to kerry

His organization has also studied what happens to incumbents based on stock market performance from the end of the most recent political convention -- this year, the Republican National Convention in New York -- and the election.

The Dow closed on Sept. 2 at 10,260.20 after the RNC wound down. For President Bush to win, the Dow would have to rise at least 255 points or so from current levels to be in positive territory, according to the post-convention indicator.

This post-convention indicator has correctly predicted presidential elections since 1900, said Hirsch, with two notable exceptions.

The post-convention indicator was undone again in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won his second term in office. That year, the Dow lost 0.6 percent from the day after the convention until the election, when it closed at 1,229.24 on the eve of Reagan's landslide.

"But that was just a minor correction on the heels of a huge bull market. The market's former success seemed to be more of an indicator that year," said Hirsch.

There is some hope for President Bush, however.

Looking just at the last week, the market has had a bit of a run, and although he hasn't studied the Dow's performance for each week before a presidential election over the last century, Hirsch said that the Dow's 250-point rise since last Friday "is better news for Mr. Bush.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/markets/election_dow/index.htm

[UpInArms]

48. Ferguson (Fed Gov) leads cheerleaders in spew

2:00pm 10/29/04 FERGUSON SAYS ECONOMY OF TRACK FOR SUSTAINED GROWTH

2:00pm 10/29/04 FERGUSON: MANY FACTORS LOWER CURRENT NEUTRAL RATE

2:00pm 10/29/04 FERGUSON: FED CAN'T DEFINE NEUTRAL RATE WITH PRECISION

2:00pm 10/29/04 FERGUSON: FED SHOULD NOT GO ON FORCED MARCH TO NEUTRAL

2:00pm 10/29/04 FERGUSON: MOVE TO NEUTRAL NEITHER HASTY OR ATTENUATED

2:00pm 10/29/04 FED'S FERGUSON: FRESH DATA KEY TO FUTURE RATE HIKES

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38289.5834249306-825106688&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Fed's Ferguson says fresh data key to future rate hikes By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Incoming economic data will play an important role in determing the pace and ultimate scope of the Fed's future rate hikes, said Federal Reserve vice chairman Roger Ferguson on Friday. The Fed will have to watch the data closely given the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, he said in a speech at the University of Connecticut. The Fed has said that current monetary policy is accomodative and officials have said they want to get rates up to a "neutral level" that neither fosters inflation nor dampens growth. Ferguson said the Fed will move rates higher in a process that is "neither hasty nor overly attenuated."

[UpInArms]

49. 2:32 EST numbers and dollar numbers (Fergie should've shut up)

Dow 10,001.15 -3.39 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,969.18 -6.56 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,126.25 -1.19 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% -0.043

NYSE Volume 986,549,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,141,159,000

Last trade 84.88 Change -0.40 (-0.47%)

[UpInArms]

51. Black to quit Hollinger Inc "within days"

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6662516

TORONTO, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Former press baron Conrad Black will quit as chairman and chief executive of his Canadian holding company, Hollinger Inc. (HLGc.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , to facilitate his offer to take the company private, his lawyer said on Friday.

The surprise announcement was made by Black's lawyer during an Ontario court hearing involving one of Hollinger Inc.'s institutional shareholders. The shareholder is seeking to have Black removed from the board.

"Lord Black will be resigning. We do have to work out timing and other issues," lawyer Alan Mark told the court.

He later told reporters that Black will resign in "a matter of days."

"The trigger now is the proposal for the privatization...he doesn't accept that there are any other grounds for his removal," Mark said.

"Now that the process has started he wants to ensure that the board is unimpeded by any concerns or controversy, and to enable that to happen he is prepared to retire from the company."

...more...

[UpInArms]

52. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,027.47 +22.93 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,974.99 -0.75 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,130.20 +2.76 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029% -0.051

NYSE Volume 1,449,779,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,661,806,000

Close: It was a sluggish day of trade that was the product of huge gains observed over Tuesday and Wednesday, a 2% climb in the price of crude oil (to $51.76/bbl), and a sense of apprehension ahead of Tuesday's presidential election and Friday's employment report... The overhangs curbed widespread buying interest, kept the volume totals light, and translated into mixed breadth figures at the averages... At the same time, the indices did not sell-off wholeheartedly as the blue chip averages - for instance - managed slight 0.2% gains...

Most economic reports were bullish and helped lift economically-sensitive (cyclical, machinery, transportation) parts of the market... October Michigan Consumer Sentiment was revised higher to 91.7 (consensus of 88.0), Q3 (Sept) GDP came in at 3.7% - below the consensus of 4.3% - but was offset by a low chain deflator (at 1.3%), and October Chicago PMI checked in at whopping 16-year highs... The huge spike in the regional manufacturing report (to 68.5) suggested strong upside to the national manufacturing report (ISM Index) - released Monday...

As a result, industrial and basic material posted solid gains over the course of the session - the latter (like gold) helped out by the yen's climb to 6-month highs against the yen... Other areas, such airline, retail, and most pockets of tech did not find buying interest as traders booked profits from the week's gains...

Have a Great Weekend Everyone!