NBC/WSJ poll: Bush and Kerry, in a Dead Heat, Fight for an Edge

[question everything]

Bush and Kerry, in a Dead Heat, Fight for an Edge

Latest Journal/NBC Poll Shows No 'October Surprise'; Bin Laden Has Little Effect

By DAVID ROGERS in Dayton, Ohio, GREG HITT in Miami and JOHN HARWOOD in Washington
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 1, 2004

(snip)

With the outcomes in Florida and the Midwest looking crucial, Mr. Bush had 48% and Mr. Kerry 47% in the Journal/NBC survey of 1,014 likely voters, conducted Friday through Sunday. Independent Ralph Nader drew just 1%, with 4% of voters saying they weren't sure or backed someone else. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points. That result, statistically identical to mid-October's 48%-48% tie, suggests that the late-breaking news involving Mr. bin Laden alarmed Americans but hasn't proved to be a consequential "October surprise." Voters expressed diminished confidence in both candidates' ability to protect the U.S. against terrorist threats, but roughly two-thirds said it made no difference in their presidential preference.

(snip)

The cornerstone of the Kerry strategy rests on first winning either Ohio or Florida, both captured by Mr. Bush four years ago. Bush advisers noted late movement toward the Republican ticket in Ohio; one senior Kerry adviser, after days in which the campaign had been especially bullish on the state, predicted Florida's 27 electoral votes might be easier to grab than Ohio's 20. Next, Mr. Kerry must win at least two of three states -- Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa -- won by Al Gore. With both campaigns hungrily scanning for the barest signs of movement in the polls, late trends appeared to be moving Mr. Kerry's way in all three, including a Des Moines Register Iowa survey showing the Democratic ticket ahead by three percentage points. The Massachusetts senator must also protect his current lead in Michigan, where he will campaign today in Detroit.

(snip)

The poll showed the campaign's issue agenda has shifted ever so slightly in a favorable direction for Mr. Kerry. The proportion of likely voters identifying the Bush-friendly issues of terrorism and values as most important, dipped to 49% from 51% in mid-October, while the Kerry-friendly issues of the economy and health care were cited by 39%. The furor over missing explosives in Iraq, like the bin Laden videotape, also appeared to have had scant effect on the presidential contest... Despite outward confidence, the White House is deploying its full arsenal in the final days. Air Force One became the backdrop for three in-flight interviews with local television stations, whose reporters each got separate sit-downs in the president's forward cabin. Air Force One kept aloft until all the interviews were complete, extending a flight from Columbus to Grand Rapids, Mich., by 20 minutes.

The Bush administration also began doling out transportation grants late last week to battleground states. More than $700,000 each went for highway improvements in Eau Claire, Wis., and Canal Winchester, Ohio. New Mexico came in for $900,000 for road upgrades near Albuquerque, a final Bush stop, and $300,000 is provided for improvements to the public-transit system of Palm Beach County in Florida, a hurricane-battered state that already has received billions of dollars in disaster aid.

(snip)


Write to David Rogers at [e-mail], Greg Hitt at [e-mail] and John Harwood at [e-mail]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109924774505360442,00.html

[fizzana]

1. And that cow, Andrea Mitchell was on MSNBC earlier

going on about how Bush was gaining in the battleground states.

Fuck the lot of them.

[springhill]

3. Kerry should win in a rout, however...............

After watching "Orwell Rolls In His Grave" I don't trust the news media or the polls that they take. The owners of the news organizations need to keep this election close in order for it to be stolen. I don't have a very good feeling about what is going to happen.

[lebkuchen]

2. Australia's Howard and Latham were in dead heats, too

But the results were a rather lopsided Howard win.

The Kerry camp is much more energized and organized than the Bushies. There will be no tie. Kerry will win, as long as that energy stays high and the supports maintain a high public presence.