Pendulum Swings to Kerry Landslide: Malcolm Mackerras ( Aussie expert)

[the Kelly Gang]

Pendulum swings to Kerry landslide
Malcolm Mackerras
November 01, 2004
MY key prediction in an article published in February this year was this: "On Monday, December 20, 2004, the Electoral College will meet and 327 votes will be cast for John Kerry and 211 for George W. Bush."

The article went on to predict that the 327 votes for Kerry would be made up as follows:

"First, he will win 260 votes by carrying every state carried by Al Gore in 2000. Second, he will win 27 votes in Florida, four in New Hampshire, 11 in Missouri, 20 in Ohio and five in Nevada."

Subject to a quite minor revision, that remains my forecast.

I am referring to a diagram known as the Mackerras US Pendulum which accompanied that article and appears again today.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11247939%5E2703,00.html
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Malcom MacKerras success rate is almost 100 % correct

[cubsfan forever]

1. And here's to you remaining so! n/t

Professor 2

[goforit]

2. Pretty specific #s, eh?.......Your Stats and our prayers and votes just

may create this miracle!!!!

[venus]

3. Note: he says "However, under the US system the Nader and Buchanan

votes are wasted". It's not Nader's fault entirely, it's the nuts who vote for him who do the most harm.

[fizzana]

4. Makes sense to me

I'm predicting a 4.5% margin to Kerry which should translate into about that many electoral votes.

[springhill]

5. That's only if this is a fair election.......

And I have my doubts. Electronic voting machines? Anything could happen. These people will not go down without pulling out all the stops.

[Lindacooks]

9. You know, I used to think that too

but after the bad news for Bush* in the last couple of weeks, and no October surprise, I'm beginning to think we are overestimating the Repukes' power and resolve.

[Joe Turner]

10. I think the October surprise was the Bin Laden tape

I suspect that Rove knew about the tape weeks ago and strong armed Al Jajerza (sp) into keeping it bottled up until the last few days of the election.

Turned out the tape didn't have the reaction they were hoping for.

[Skittles]

15. I agree, although this time it will be much tougher

so many states they'd have to focus on. Amazing, isn't it? Repugs own the White House, congress, the Supreme Court and the media yet they are struggling to remain afloat. Truly a testament to how badly BUSH SUCKS.

[GregD]

6. Only subject to GOP disenfranchisement, cheating, and BBV

If you have not seen www.votergate.tv, do so.

Then MOSH to the polls and vote!

[PATRICK]

18. But take Ohio

BBV plans were smashed there. There voter suppression was overplayed and is being fought back. They may have created backlash more than equal to any cheating.

That was to have been a done deal for Bush. It ceased being a done deal when the doofus from Diebold openly boasted of delivering the state to Bush.

Loose lips sink ships. Ohio is ours. The same goes for BBV even in states where it could have an effect- because it will be closely, very closely watched. If they do AND LOSE anyway, private sector private source code paperless voter fraud will be headed for the trashcan along. Criminal suits(I hope).

[autorank]

7. Ahoy, Kelly Gang. How smart/accurate is this Mackerras guy?

[the Kelly Gang]

13. Mackerras is very scientific how he conducts his polls

he has picked every election to date and the only thing he is ever out on is a few numbers and even then it's very rare for him to be wrong..I think you can safely say Kerry is in but by how much ??

[Randi_Listener]

8. Do they have any of this analysis....

...on the other side? Anything that "guarantees" them a fucking victory?

[davepc]

11. This guy also predicted Howard would lose

FWIW

[the Kelly Gang]

12. no I think you are wrong..

from what I read he accurately predicted Howard would win and by how many seats

[Tashi]

14. MacKerras

I think it was 2001 when he predicted a Labor landslide..

[Norquist Nemesis]

16. YES!!! The rubberband has snapped!

GWB has pulled this country so far to the right...I'm convinced the country is ready to jerk it back!

The real question is...will they be stealing it through BBV. :scared: Sorry, this is something that truly scares me. I finally made this a concern for hubby tonight (the BBV thing). He said something to the effect that with what I was saying about BBV voting the election would be invalid. I replied that the Constitution does not allow us to have another vote and the Supreme Court will look at the Consitution. Also, it was George Bush that filed the first law suit in 2000, not Al Gore...now he's scared.

[ramapo]

17. Landslide YES!

My prediction exactly...I'm just scared that I'm wrong

Can't wait till it's over...for better or for worse

[Julian English]

19. Now go and vote to make this true--and bring friends

[Zero Gravitas]

20. Mackerras is Australian for

KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE!

[DeadManInc]

21. Good news

I just hope he is correct this time around.