STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 1 November

[ozymandius]

Monday November 1, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 80
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 1
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 325 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 14 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1075
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 29, 2004

Dow... 10,027.47 +22.93 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq... 1,974.99 -0.75 (-0.04%)
S&P 500... 1,130.20 +2.76 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.03% -0.05 (-1.25%)
Gold future... 429.40 +3.40 (+0.79%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Merlin]

1. Will the market deliver Rove's final denoument today?

Will it drop below 10,000 in time for tomorrow, thus fulfilling Rove's prophecy that if the DJI is under 10K the Andover cheerleader loses?

[ozymandius]

4. Deus ex machina, as always

The "god in the machine" moves in mysterious ways. However, futures are pointing to a flat opening in the day's trading. Remember that the first half hour does not a daily trend make.

Stocks Seen Starting Flat on Eve of Vote
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were headed for a flat open on Monday a day before the U.S. presidential election amid Wall Street concerns the tight race may not immediately produce a clear winner and prolong the market's uncertainty.

-cut-

S&P 500 futures were up 0.2 point, about even with fair value accounting for dividends, interest rates and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial index futures were up 15 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.5 points.

"Until the election is over, it's going to have a hard time making too many moves. This week is all about the U.S. election and people will be happy to sit on their hands until we know who wins," said Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays Stockbrokers in London. "The worst case scenario would be a non-result."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[54anickel]

8. Hey, How about them Packers yesterday?!! Heh, just another bit of

bad news for Bush in that win! The futures are down from when I check last night. DOW was up by 9.00, now at -4.00, but who knows which way the wind will blow today. I wonder if there will be some short covering heading into the election. :shrug:

Either way, it should be an interesting couple of days.

[54anickel]

11. Heh-heh, nevermind - DOW futures are now UP by 11.00, S&P 0.50 while

the NAS is still down by 3.00 - not much movement there yet.

[ozymandius]

14. Friend came up to me last night and said "Redskins Lost!"

I asked what that meant. He then quoted the statistics for the past several elections. While this means nothing in a logical sense, it does make us guys wearing the white hats fell a little better about the possibilities.

[54anickel]

17. There had to be folks on both sides of that field feeling a bit bi-polar

for that game. Heck, even I felt a bit suspicious in the final quarter - it almost looked like the Packers were trying to throw the game. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Jim Puplava "Trading Places"

History often repeats itself. The characters change. The events are different, but follow similar patterns. It may be a different time and in a different country and involve a different cast of actors on the world stage, but there are similarities. Wars, famines, depressions, booms, and busts are no stranger to historians. They have been repeated over and over again and have been documented by scribes, historians, and authors of the bible. We have had times of peace, followed by times of war. Famine and depression have followed booms and bull markets. What I’m saying here is nothing new to anyone who has ever picked up a history book and studied civilization. Mankind hasn’t changed much in thousands of years of recorded history. From events recorded in the bible and hieroglyphics on the walls of the pyramids to the writings of the ancients, human drive, ambition, emotion, fear, greed, evil, avarice, and benevolence are evident for all to see. In the words of wise King Solomon, “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again, there is nothing new under the sun.”

-cut-

It's Just a Game of Chicken

The markets and the economies of the world are on the edge of a precipice. The Fed is playing a game of chicken with the markets by insisting it can proceed with measured interest rate hikes. Its insistence that higher oil prices won’t have a major impact on the economy is a clear case of denial. Already the outlook for capital spending is showing signs of rolling over and there are emerging signs of financial stress among consumers. I suspect that this game of chicken will end soon with the Fed reversing or going to a neutral policy after one more rate hike. After that the Fed could just as easily shift back into hyperinflation mode with buckets of money thrown at the economy. When this happens, most of this new money will not go into the economy as expected, but instead it will fuel the next asset mania, which I believe will be in natural resources.

-cut-

Today sector weightings are once again trading places. Basic materials and energy are on the rise. This reflects the new bull market in commodities as reflected in the graph of the CRB commodity index above. While energy and basic materials increase in their size, the weighting of the financial and technology sector are in decline. This reflects a truism of the markets as market leadership changes with time. In the words of King Solomon, there is a time and season for everything.

Something I wrote back in April of 2002 is just as applicable to today. “Once a long-term trend is broken, it is replaced by another trend…. At such milestones in financial history, the rules of the investment game are altered; but alas, the vast majority of investors continue to play by the old rules and therefore either lose money or miss out on the substantial capital gains which the new opportunity or leadership brings about… I suppose that one reason the road to ruin is broad, is to accommodate the great amount of travel in that direction… The key to successful investing is to understand that, with nearly 100% certainty, the bursting of a bubble leads to a permanent change in leadership.”<1>

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2004/1029.html

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.13 Change +0.22 (+0.26%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1099283362-9e32d306-04487

Forex - Dollar firmer vs yen in Tokyo trade ahead of US presidential election

TOKYO (AFX) - The dollar was higher against the yen in early afternoon Tokyo trade, with dollar-bears in Asia seen trimming their short-dollar positions ahead of the US presidential election this week, dealers said. The closely-fought Nov. 2 US election campaign has produced some forecasts of a victory for Democratic candidate John Kerry

Some analysts interpret such an outcome as resulting in more protectionist policy for the US, which could be bullish for the yen, while others said his policy with regard to currency remains largely uncertain. In early Asian trade, the US unit fell to 105.75 yen - the lowest level since April 13 - with speculators seen testing the downside on overall bearish sentiment towards the US currency, dealers said. Factors behind the currency movement included lower-than-forecast third quarter US economic growth, along with renewed worries over geopolitical risks. The US economy grew at a 3.7 pct annual rate in the third quarter to September, below market expectations of 4.3 pct rise, according to CBS MarketWatch. New terrorist threats also encouraged dollar-bears when the leader of the Al Qaeda organization, Osama bin Laden, emerged with a video message Friday warning of further possible attacks on the US

However, the US unit climbed back above the 106 yen mark, with traders seen adjusting their dollar-short positions ahead of Tuesday's elections, dealers said. At 1.00 pm in Tokyo (0500 GMT), the dollar stood at 106.12 yen, up from 105.77 in Sydney and from 105.81 in late New York trade. The US unit has moved in a range of 105.75-106.31 yen so far in Tokyo

<snip>

Going forward, the market is divided over the US dollar's direction

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi chief currency analyst Osamu Takashima doubts whether the US unit will drop below the 103.40 yen level - a level not seen since March 31

"The US unit's fall (in recent weeks) have been driven by short-term speculators, who tried to capitalize on dollar-bearish factors, including rising oil prices," said Takashima. Third quarter US GDP growth proved weaker-than-anticipated, "but I believe demand from lower-end (customers) seems to be pretty firm... so once speculators move to unwind their dollar-shorts, the US unit could surge back toward the 110 yen mark within a couple of months." Nonetheless, dollar-bearish players pointed out the US currency could weaken further, with the Bank of Japan governor seen unwilling to step into the market to stem the yen's rapid rise. Last Friday, BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui said the current yen/dollar moves are stable and they do not pose a risk to the economy, suggesting the authorities would stay on the sidelines

...more...

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=23771255&brk=1

Dollar regains some ground in Asia vs. yen, euro

TOKYO (CBS.MW) - The dollar regained some ground from multi-month lows against the yen and the euro on Monday ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as Japanese importers bought the U.S. currency and stocks here weakened.

The dollar, which fell as low as 105.75 yen in early deals, traded at 106.17 yen, compared with 105.81 yen late Friday in the United States.

The euro traded at $1.2786, compared with $1.2793 in the United States late Friday.

The dollar gained some ground as Japanese importers bought the greenback, said Ryohei Muramatsu, manager of group treasury Asia at Commerz Bank AG in Tokyo,

<snip>

But the dollar is likely to remain weak amid concerns about the wide U.S. trade deficit and uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, Muramatsu said.

Later in the session, the U.S. nonfarm jobs report for October is expected to show that the economy added 176,000 jobs last month, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

<snip>

The greenback slid below 105.80 yen per dollar. Analysts have said in recent days that a drop below 106 yen could prompt Japanese finance officials to intervene by selling yen for dollars.

...more...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=agi5V4QZng28&refer=top_world_news

Dollar May Extend 21 Percent Decline Under Bush, Survey Shows

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend the 21 percent drop it has suffered since U.S. President George W. Bush took office in 2001, according to a Bloomberg News poll of traders, investors and strategists.

In the final weekly survey before tomorrow's U.S. presidential election, 54 percent of the people questioned on Oct. 29 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. The survey also indicated the U.S. currency will weaken versus the yen.

``Dollar weakness has to go further,'' said Lyle Gramley, a former Federal Reserve Governor, now an adviser to Schwab Soundview Capital Markets in Washington. ``The chances of a slowing U.S. economy are rising; so a rally in the dollar in these circumstances would be very unexpected.''

The dollar, down 2.8 percent against the euro last month, is being buffeted by waning demand for U.S. assets among foreign investors, the widening trade deficit and a slackening pace of economic expansion.

The currency's slide might be exacerbated should initial vote counting not produce a clear election winner, said Jake Moore, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Plc, which cut its dollar forecasts on Oct. 29 for the second time in less than two weeks.

<snip>

Measured by the Fed's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index, the dollar has shed 21 percent since Bush took office in January 2001. The decline is the most since Ronald Reagan's second term, when the dollar lost 35 percent.

...more...

Today's Reports:

Nov 01 8:30 AM
Personal Income Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.3%
market anticiaptes 0.3%
last report 0.4%
revised -

Nov 01 8:30 AM
Personal Spending Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.7%
market anticipates 0.6%
last report 0.0%
revised -

Nov 01 10:00 AM
Construction Spending Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.5%
market anticipates 0.4%
last report 0.8%
revised -

Nov 01 10:00 AM
ISM Index Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 60.0
market anticipates 58.0
last report 58.5
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

43. DAILY COMMODITY MARKET COMMENTARY

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100530/content.asp?menu=commodities&dia=1112004

Financials: Bonds have rallied back on Friday and traders should look for the market to close below 113-20 level today. After elections look for the market to test the 110-20 level. Closing below 112-20 targets the 110-20 level. Bonds have a number of factors supporting higher prices and lower yields such as; rising energy prices, terrorism, U.S. elections, the global economy driving into the abyss again just to name a few. Traders should use extreme caution when the media groups are focused completely on one side. Examples are the weak dollar, higher energy prices, lower stocks and higher commodities and higher bond prices. Rising energy prices continue to eat away the global economy and Bond prices are not going to let up until there is a sign that energy prices will top. December Put options should be used for a quick play on the downside. Targets are at 112-20 and 110-20 after the elections. Long traders in the Dow Jones contract should raise the stop another 50 points to 9950 and protect about $2200 in profits. Stock Index's would get a large boost if Crude Oil where to start topping out but that has not happened yet. When Crude Oil comes down below $41 per barrel we will get excited. Year end targets are 1200 to 1245 in the S&P. The Crb Index jumped early last week to the 290 level and we are thinking that a major multiyear top has formed. China trying to cool their economy by raising interest rates, so their economy will cool down but will it be a hard or soft landing. Either one is not good for commodity bulls. Major support is near the 280 level which is the low from the last two weeks. The Crb is still holding near 23 year highs and we would recommend traders to look at the January 270 Crb Puts for 1.5 or $750 bought on October 7th. The Crb has advanced 18 points since Sept 7, 2004 or a $9000 advance to a high of 290. Aggressive traders can look to sell Crb Futures on interday rallies.

Currencies: The U.S. Dollar is still respecting the multiyear lows and the low of the year at 85 cents. Failure to pierce this level could result in massive short covering rally after elections. Watch for aggressive intervention from foreign central banks at any given moment to defend the Dollar. China raising rates to help cool off their economy was seen yesterday at supporting the U.S. Greenback. Traders that have short positions should use extreme caution at these levels. Several days of closing below 85 cents would probably begin a new leg lower of 2 to 3 cents and vice versa on the upside. Massive uncertainty with the U.S. elections, high energy prices, war and terrorism fears have put a huge amount of pressure on the Dollar. The massive consolidation that we have seen all year looks set to continue and we don't believe you will see the dollar close below the 85 cent level. Traders should remain bearish on foreign currencies by buying long term put positions on rallies. British Pound looks to target and close the gap left back on July 19th at the $1.84 and a half level. The old high near $1.85 basis December is probably the short term target on the upside. The Japanese Yen is holding up extremely well in the face of a massive earthquake and concerns over rising energy costs hitting the country. We are getting very close to levels that we would expect the Bank of Japan to start intervening in the currency markets. Bulls should use extreme caution. Major support near 89.50 needs to get broken and is the near term target. Canadian Dollar is still consolidating just below 82 cents. We are looking for a break and close below the 81 cent level to confirm a short term top. Multi year highs. The Can. Dollar is overbought and had a fantastic run traders should be looking for a nice pullback into the 76 to 77 cents level. Traders should focus this morning on the March Options for a quick play on the downside.

Metals: Gold is a sell going into elections. Traders should look to sell futures near the $430 level and placing your stops near $434. The U.S. Dollar should continue to consolidate and form a base until Tuesday night. The Dollar has formed a major double bottom on the monthly charts at the 85 cent. Gold was higher recently on weaker equities, high oil prices, and most importantly the weak U.S. Dollar. Concerns are that the U.S. economy is weakening and maybe ready to flip back into another a recession because of higher energy prices. Massive volatility should be expected on the near term going into the elections. Gold prices closing below $420 would probably start a run for the exits due to the massive long positions (small spec. and funds long an estimated 210,000 contracts). The U.S. Dollar has tested the major support level and low for the year near 85 cents and if this level does not break look for the longs in metals to begin liquidating their long positions. The COT data showed a massive long position built by the speculators and the possibility of heavy liquidation is present. December Silver is on the same page as Gold and trading now at its highest levels since Mid April. Long positions are probably very close to the record of almost 100,000 contracts. Silver traders should be focused on December or March Put Options for a two week time frame. Massive liquidation is coming. The near term support is at the $7.20 level and we closed below there yesterday and that could be the sign of a near term top. Trader should also be positioned with longer term Puts (March contracts or further out). December Copper rallied above near term resistance on Friday and the volatility picked up sharply. Closing below $1.25 should open up a test of major support near $1.10. Looking for the downtrend to continue and target the old double bottom at $1.22. Position traders hopefully got positioned in long term Puts up above $1.40, April 2005 Puts or further. Near term Target is the double bottom near $1.22 after a few days more of consolidation and there after $1.10 to $1.00. News that China will raise their interest rates in an effort to cool their economy is also a major negative for commodity prices.

Energies: Crude Oil made a weekly reversal on the downside last week. Confirmation of top would be a break this week below $50 per barrel. Gulf of Mexico production is now around 80% of normal. The President of Opec says he expects prices to fall. He also thought they would fall in the beginning of the year. Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 13.7% compared to only 3% a year earlier. Opec is asking the United States to release some of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, when has that happened before. The market needs to see global SPR's (U.S. release 30 million barrels) coming to the rescue and get cracking on exploration, new drilling and energy conservation. This situation needs to be fixed quick or you will have people using food money for their families to heat their homes so they don't freeze or if they don't have the money to heat their home I guess they will freeze. December Crude Oil did break and close below support at $52.00 and now the $48.00 needs to get touched to begin a steep sell off. Options traders that have taken on any of the Oil Puts on the Trading Activity should dollar down immediately if they have not done so to lower break evens. If traders don't want the risk of strait Puts look to acquire Straddles. Heating Oil has probably already made its highs for this winter.

[UpInArms]

5. PNC deal for Riggs in jeopardy, analyst says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38292.3436946412-825385646&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- PNC Financial's (PNC) acquisition of Riggs National (RIGS) "is at risk of being delayed or scrapped" because of lingering concerns of Riggs money-laundering scandal, an analyst for RBC Capital Markets said in a research note Monday. If these (issues) are resolved or the risks can be quantified with confidence, the deal is likely to go through," wrote RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy. "If these three issues are not resolved by April 30, 2005, we believe the risk of consummating the deal will be too great for PNC Financial." Shares of Washington-based Riggs closed down 22 cents to $21.11 on Friday. Pittsburgh-based PNC shares fell 13 cents fell to $52.30.

[ozymandius]

6. Election Will Dominate Wall Street's Moves

NEW YORK - Does Wall Street like Bush or Kerry? At this point, investors would be happy with having a clear winner by the opening bell on Wednesday, no matter who it might be. The stock market hates uncertainty, and a second straight election decided by the courts could drive stocks lower for weeks — possibly until someone is inaugurated on Jan. 20.

With the contest between President Bush (news - web sites) and Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) just as tight as the 2000 race, and thousands of lawyers from both parties primed to pounce on even the smallest improprieties, only a solid Tuesday night showing by one of the candidates would likely forestall a downturn in the markets on Wednesday.

Regardless of the outcome, the election will likely overshadow a number of important economic reports and earnings releases in the week ahead, including the jobs creation report for October and earnings from media giants Time Warner Inc. and News Corp.

-cut-

ECONOMIC NEWS:

Friday's job creation report from the Labor Department (news - web sites) will be anxiously awaited, and could either help or hinder the market as it digests the election results. Analysts expect 160,000 new jobs to have been created in October, up from September's disappointing 96,000. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 5.4 percent.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=9&u=/ap/20041101/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead&sid=95609876

[UpInArms]

7. Reports coming in

8:30am 11/01/04 U.S. SEPT CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.6% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 11/01/04 U.S. SEPT. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.2% VS UP 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 11/01/04 U.S. SEPT. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.1%, 1.5% Y-O-Y

8:30am 11/01/04 U.S. SEPT. PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.1%, UP 2.0% Y-O-Y

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38292.3542878472-825387052&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Sept. spending up 0.6%, income up 0.2

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in September, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Meanwhile, personal incomes rose 0.2 percent. The increase in spending was in line with the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists, while personal income came in slightly below expectations of a 0.3 percent increase. The personal consumption expenditure price index is up 2.0 percent in the past year, down from an annualized 2.1 percent in August. The core PCE index is up 1.5 percent, up from an annualized 1.4 percent rate in the previous month.

[UpInArms]

20. Report: Construction spending FLAT vs .5% up expectation

10:00am 11/01/04 U.S. SEPT CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS FLAT VS UP 0.5% EXPECTED

10:00am 11/01/04 U.S. AUG. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP REVISED 0.9% VS 0.8%

10:00am 11/01/04 U.S. SEPT CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS FLAT VS UP 0.5% EXPECTED

10:00am 11/01/04 U.S. AUG. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP REVISED 0.9% VS 0.8%

10:01am 11/01/04 U.S. OCT. ISM NEW ORDERS 58.3% VS. 58.1%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38292.416807581-825394443&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Sept construction outlays flat vs up 0.5% expected

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Spending on U.S. construction projects was unchanged in September after rising a revised 0.9 percent in August, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. The flat reading in September was below expectations of Wall Street economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch, who had forecast a 0.5 percent gain. August outlays were also revised slightly higher to a 0.9 percent gain from the 0.8 percent increase previously estimated. Construction spending had risen for seven straight months.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B4E49862F-4601-4ACD-9405-A9394D16E041%7D&

U.S. Oct. ISM 56.8% vs. 58.9% expected

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the 18th straight month in October, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. The ISM index fell to 56.8 percent from 58.5 percent in September. Economists were expected the closely watched index to rise to 58.9 percent. Readings over 50 percent indicate growth in the sector. The new orders index rose to 58.3 percent from 58.1 percent. The production index fell to 58.9 percent from 61.6 percent and the employment index fell to 54.8 percent from 58.1 percent. The prices paid index rose to 78.5 percent from 76.0 percent.

[UpInArms]

26. U.S. Oct. ISM falls to 56.8% - Factory sector grows at slowest pace in yr

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B82B05D18%2D6FBC%2D4CE8%2DA1F7%2DD258C55AEFBA%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The 18-month expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector weakened in October, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday.

The ISM index fell to 56.8 percent in October from 58.5 percent in September. It's the lowest since September 2003's 54.7 percent. Read the full release.

Economists were expecting the closely watched index to rise to 58.9 percent. Readings over 50 percent indicate growth in the sector.

<snip>

The prices paid index rose to 78.5 percent from 76.0 percent.

"There is significant upward pressure on prices,' the ISM said.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. European Manufacturing Index Falls to 10-Month Low

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aOM5XDZ7Rvf8&refer=europe

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The manufacturing industry in the 12 nations sharing the euro grew at the slowest pace in 10 months in October as record oil prices crimped global demand and squeezed companies' profit margins.

An index based on a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers compiled by NTC Research Ltd. for Reuters Group Plc fell to 52.4 from 53.1 in September, the lowest reading since December 2003, according to figures on the Internet. Economists expected a drop to 53, the median of 38 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The 62 percent surge in oil prices this year is sapping growth by boosting costs for companies and leaving households with less money to spend. ABB Ltd., the world's largest maker of power transformers, and Volkswagen AG are among manufacturers that reported third-quarter earnings below analyst forecasts.

``We have a clear deterioration of the situation in manufacturing,'' said Holger Schmieding, co-head of European economics at Bank of America in London. ``Domestic demand isn't picking up steam, while foreign demand is weakening slightly because of higher oil prices, a rising euro and a general slowdown in the global economy.''

snip>

U.S. Expansion

By comparison, a similar gauge of manufacturing in the U.S. is forecast to be unchanged for October as new orders increased. The Institute for Supply Management's index probably held at 58.5, according to the median estimate of 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington.

European Central Bank council member Nicholas Garganas said in an interview on Oct. 27 that ``there is bound to be an effect on growth'' in 2005 if oil prices remain at current levels, echoing remarks by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet that increasing energy costs could ``dampen the strength of the recovery, both inside and outside the euro area.''

more...

[54anickel]

54. "spending rising three times as fast as after-tax incomes"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/02/content_2166412.htm

snip>

The 0.6 percent rise in consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of total US economic activity and is the major engine in the economic growth, followed an outright decline of 0.1percent in August.

The report showed that the spending on durable goods, items expected to last for more than three years such autos, rose by 1.6percent in September after having fallen by 2 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, US personal income growth was a far more moderate 0.2 percent in September following a 0.3 percent rise in August. Theafter-tax incomes rose by a smaller 0.1 percent in September following a 0.2 percent advance in August.

With spending rising three times as fast as after-tax incomes, Americans' savings rate dropped to 0.2 percent in September, down from 0.7 percent in September. It was the lowest level since the saving rate dropped to an all-time low of minus 0.2 percent in October 2001.

[UpInArms]

9. Report: Merck Tried to Bury Vioxx Concerns for Years

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=healthNews&storyID=6675039

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Internal e-mails and other documents from Merck & Co. show the company fought for years to keep safety concerns from undermining the drug's commercial prospects, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

Vioxx, a drug known as a COX-2 inhibitor, was withdrawn from the market after it was shown to double the risk of heart attack and stroke in patients who had been taking it for at least 18 months. Vioxx generated some $2.5 billion in annual sales, and its withdrawal pummeled Merck's shares.

On Monday, the Journal reported that an e-mail dated March 9, 2000, suggested Merck recognized that something in Vioxx was linked to increased heart risk.

Edward Scolnick, Merck research chief at the time, wrote in the e-mail that cardiovascular events "are clearly there" and called it a "shame."

...more...

[Tempest]

28. Tried?

They successfully buried the information for years.

[54anickel]

10. Fed May Take a Break After Its Next Increase

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=arLF4EUK_SbY

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Economic data released last week and comments from a top Federal Reserve official strongly suggest central bank officials will take a breather after they raise their target for the federal funds rate another quarter- percentage point at a policy making session next week.

In a key speech in Connecticut last week, Fed Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson Jr. stressed the importance of economic data on central bank decisions, and he highlighted several reasons for caution against raising rates too quickly.

``Clearly, prevailing conditions matter in determining the degree of policy accommodation,'' Ferguson said. ``It is only against a backdrop of an economy that seems poised to maintain sustained and solid economic growth, even as the (federal) funds rate rises, that the FOMC can determine that current policy is accommodative.''

snip>

Neutral Level

A number of Fed policy makers have suggested that such a neutral level may fall in a range of about 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent. However, some have also suggested that as the economy moves toward full employment, a lower intermediate federal funds rate may be appropriate.

Ferguson went even further in his speech.

``Indeed, in my judgment, the lingering hesitancy of businesses to make commitments, the restraint imposed on domestic consumers from an increase in the cost of energy, and the drag on domestic production from the excess of imports over exports all represent forces pulling the equilibrium real federal funds rate below its perceived longer-term level,'' the Fed vice chairman said.

An Open Door

``And, in the context of well-contained inflation, the evidence of remaining underused resources gives us a good reason to hold the real rate below even the intermediate-run notion of its equilibrium to allow the economy to be firmly set on a path that will shrink the pool of these underused resources over a reasonable period,'' he said.

more...

[54anickel]

12. States Are Battling Against Wal-Mart Over Health Care

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/01/business/01health.html?hp&ex=1099371600&en=a03b012daef32749&ei=5094&partner=homepage

snip>

Now, Wal-Mart finds itself under attack for what critics see as its miserly approach to employee health care, which they say is forcing too many of its workers and their families into state insurance programs or making them rely on charity care by hospitals.

Wal-Mart vigorously defends its health care policies, saying it offers affordable coverage for all employees.

The company says it has no way of knowing how many of its employees, whom it calls associates, or their families are insured under state programs. The larger issue of whether companies can and should absorb the soaring cost of health care is a national issue, said Susan Chambers, the executive vice president who oversees benefits at Wal-Mart. "You can't solve it for the 1.2 million associates if you can't solve it for the country.''

A survey by Georgia officials found that more than 10,000 children of Wal-Mart employees were in the state's health program for children at an annual cost of nearly $10 million to taxpayers. A North Carolina hospital found that 31 percent of 1,900 patients who described themselves as Wal-Mart employees were on Medicaid, while an additional 16 percent had no insurance at all.

And backers of a measure that will be on California's ballot tomorrow, which would force big employers like Wal-Mart to either provide affordable health insurance to their workers or pay into a state insurance pool, say Wal-Mart employees without company insurance are costing California's state health care programs an estimated $32 million a year.

more...

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Not much conviction on the part of futures traders this morning, as current indications suggest the cash market is likely to begin the day on a mixed and relatively flat note.... Look for some volatility following the ISM Index at 10:00 ET, yet with election day on the horizon, don't be surprised if there is an overall lack of conviction throughout the day

8:51AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Personal Income (+0.2%) and personal spending (+0.6%) reports are both pretty much on the mark with consensus estimates of +0.3% and +0.6%, respectively... As such, the data haven't had any real impact on the futures market, which is trading in close proximity to pre-release levels... ISM Index at 10ET will carry some market moving potential; consensus estimate is 58.0

8:06AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Little conviction in the futures market, which is expected to be the case for the cash market when trading begins... An underlying sense of caution ahead of tomorrow's election, rising oil prices, and a lack of market moving corporate news are acting as limiting factors

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to light profit taking but remains above the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.21. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1500.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1464.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 3.00 pts. at 1487 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, a test of the reaction high crossing at 1132.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1112.89 would signal that the rebound off last week's low has ended. The December S&P 500 Index was up 0.30 pts. at 1130.30 as of 5:54 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning

[UpInArms]

15. 9:34 EST markets are open (and down)

Dow 10,019.58 -7.89 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,972.97 -2.02 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,129.22 -0.98 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.060% +0.031

NYSE Volume 30,292,000
Nasdaq Volume 79,487,000

[54anickel]

16. Class of '99 trying to live with reality

I found this one rather interesting as I weigh the pros and cons of remaining in college now that I've started. I am really leaning toward dropping out these days for numerous reasons.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2874473

snip>

"It was a huge confidence breaker," she said. "I thought yeah, the economy is bad, but I'm one of the best."

Many members of the class of 1999 found their high hopes similarly dashed. Although they were in demand and getting high salaries upon graduation, when the economy started slumping in mid-2000, they found themselves facing layoffs and pay cuts.

Five years later, many are struggling to move up the corporate ladder or out from under their parents' wings.

snip>

College graduates were uniquely affected by the dot-com bust and the recession, partly because their expectations were warped by the booming 1990s, according to Jordan Goodman, author of Everyone's Money Book. Many graduates flocked to the technology sector, which had been paying top dollar for the young and computer-savvy.

"Things were being handed to them right out of college, in a way no generation had ever seen," Goodman said.

snip>

To survive the workplace now, many young people have had to start over on the bottom rung — not exactly the position many expected to be in five years after graduation. According to Alexandra Levit, a Northwestern University graduate who recently wrote the book They Don't Teach Corporate in College, her age group has aspirations that are "way out of whack with reality."

"They're very innovative, very entrepreneurial. ... There's a bit of a clash with managers, who are much more bureaucratic," she said.

[54anickel]

18. Fannie, Freddie loan rules may ease

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/01/news/fortune500/fannie_freddie.reut/index.htm

Newspaper: U.S. may ease rules to enable mortgage companies to finance more low-income homes.
November 1, 2004: 7:06 AM EST



NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development will propose easing rules that will require Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to finance more low-income housing, according to a published report Monday.

Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) -- which is expected to make its announcement as early as Monday -- will propose minimum requirements for Fannie and Freddie for lending to low-income households that are slightly less stringent than minimums proposed earlier this year, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The earlier HUD plan was opposed by the National Association of Home Builders, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and other housing groups, according to the report.

Housing industry lobbyists also have warned that the rules could weaken the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, which insures mortgages for low-income borrowers, it added.

more...

[54anickel]

19. A Card to Borrow Your Future (401K credit card)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56183-2004Oct23.html

For a quarter-century, a Boston inventor has been obsessed with a single idea: an innovation that would give millions of American workers the chance to borrow their own money from their 401(k) savings plans using a new kind of credit card.

In 1980 the inventor, an animated fellow named Francis Vitagliano, shared his concept with an MIT professor, Franco Modigliani. The Italian-born economist had been writing for 20 years about his theory of how and when people spend and save money during their lifetime, the so-called Life-Cycle Hypothesis. Modigliani's work would win him the 1985 Nobel Prize in Economics, but the call from Vitagliano would, he thought, give him a way to test his theory in real life.

snip>

Working in the pension-compliance field, Vitagliano had his breakthrough idea about the retirement card decades ago when 401(k) savings accounts were in their infancy. But even then he could see that workers would apply to borrow some of the tax-deferred savings from their k-plans, putting employers through a cumbersome process to approve loans for purchase of a principal residence or education or large medical expenses. It would be a laborious process at best, one that employers and plan administrators would grow to dislike as much as the employees did. A 401(k) card would make the process much easier.

He and Modigliani also shared the belief that a 401(k) card would give workers the chance to replace costly credit card debt, often bearing interest rates above 20 percent, with lower-cost funds from their own savings. They also held fast to the view that easier access to 401(k) savings would encourage more employees, especially younger ones, to put greater sums of money away for retirement, knowing that they weren't locking it away for decades.

Each of those ideas had powerful critics.

snip>

Here's how the new 401k card would work:

Individuals with money in 401(k) savings plans would, if their employers permit, be able to purchase the new card for a $50 annual fee, enabling them to borrow money for routine purchases or major expenditures or, as with an ATM card, just to have cash readily available. They would not be permitted to borrow more than $10,000, or 40 percent of the money in the account, whichever is smaller. Furthermore, loans made with the card would not be subject to the tax penalties usually associated with early withdrawal from the retirement account.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. 10:06 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,024.74 -2.73 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,971.87 -3.12 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,129.38 -0.82 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.056% +0.027

NYSE Volume 168,553,000
Nasdaq Volume 254,502,000

10:00AM: Market remains in holding pattern...October national ISM index released at 10:00 ET came in at 56.8, down a bit from 58.5 in September...this is the first national read on manufacturing conditions for the just concluded month, and it reflects decent growth...any reading above 50 is intended to reflect growth...the market was expected unchanged at 58.5, however, so the stock market might view the report slightly negatively...

9:45AM: Market is on election watch...positive carryover tone from last week runs into slightly negative news today: oil is up a bit, Merck (MRK 29.40 -1.96) is down on reports it knew of Vioxx issues earlier, and Wal-Mart (WMT 53.71 -0.21) said October same store sales were +2.8%, a tad below the mid-point of the announced 2% to 4% expectation...nothing particularly troublesome, but not much bullish news either...

[UpInArms]

22. Crude rises back above $52 on Nigeria strike threat

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38292.4186841551-825394665&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures climbed back above $52 a barrel in early New York trade with oil workers in Nigeria threatening a nationwide strike starting Nov. 16 in protest against high fuel prices. December crude is up 34 cents at $52.15 a barrel.

[UpInArms]

53. IRAQI OIL PIPELINE BLOWN UP

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1157895,00.html

Saboteurs have blown up an oil pipeline in northern Iraq, in what officials say was a large explosion.

It was not immediately known whether exports were affected, an official in the state North Oil Company said.

"It was big," the official said, adding that the explosion was in Riyad, southwest of the oil centre of Kirkuk.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

23. personal note on Election Day

I will not be around much tomorrow - I will be ferrying rural individuals to the polls (in a 90 mile radius) and will just not be near the computer.

I do hope that others will post the day's activities (there will be no reports out tomorrow) so that I can catch up later.

Thanks!

[54anickel]

25. GOTV UIA!!! I have a feeling the markets might be hanging in some

sort of suspended animation mode tomorrow anyway - could be wrong, but just a feeling I have.

[ozymandius]

31. an addtional note

This thread will get an early start tomorrow. I will be at the polls when they open - anticipating a long wait.

I suspect you're correct 54anickel. The markets will be in some sort of suspended animation and probably not moving much until some elements of the various exit polls start to trickle in.

[54anickel]

24. Global funds buoy bond market

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f000e2dc-2b76-11d9-92d4-00000e2511c8.html

Global funds poured more money into bonds in October than in any other month this year while withdrawing investments from equities, new data show.

snip>

Bond prices have rallied this year in spite of a rise in US interest rates a rare phenomenon in fixed-income markets. Many investors attribute the freak market to a 60 per cent rise in oil prices since January 1, which is expected to limit global growth and ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further.

“High oil prices, weak earnings results and expectations of slowing growth lured investors out of equities and into bond funds in October,” said Brad Durham, managing director at EmergingPortfolio.com.

US politics has also played a role, say analysts, referring to nervousness ahead of tomorrow's presidential poll.

So far this year, global bond funds have added $5.4bn in net investments, increasing their assets by 7.4 per cent. This represents unexpectedly robust demand for bonds. Against expectations of flat returns, US Treasuries have this year gained 3.8 per cent in dollar terms, while UK gilts have risen 4.6 per cent and eurozone government bonds by 5.7 per cent. The US S&P 500-share index has, meanwhile, produced gains of just 2.8 per cent.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Global: China Tradeoffs

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041029-fri.html#anchor0

China’s hike in interest rates is good news, in my view. It is a plus for an overheated Chinese economy, and it is a positive development for an unbalanced global economy. But there are always winners and losers when a nation opts for policy restraint. China is no exception. Three such tradeoffs loom particularly important in assessing the domestic and global implications of China’s monetary tightening:

Policy strategy. China’s tightening campaign is now over a year old. Up until now, the Chinese authorities have relied mainly on administrative measures to slow their overheated economy. Such actions, which included increased reserve requirements on some banks, as well as targeted restrictions on the availability of funds by sector and region, borrow a page from China’s central planning script. These are largely micro tools designed to have an impact on the quantity of credit -- the only way really to control the State-owned segment of the economy. The interest rate move, by contrast, determines the price of credit. As such, it is a much broader macro instrument, having a more pervasive impact on the increasingly important market-driven piece of the Chinese economy.

snip>

Global tradeoffs. There are two main channels by which fluctuations in the Chinese economy are transmitted to the broader global economy -- through trade linkages and commodity markets. The two impacts are of opposite signs: A China slowdown reduces import demand, thereby inhibiting the export growth of China’s major suppliers. By contrast, a China slowdown also results in a reduction of commodity demand and a falloff in commodity prices -- providing relief from input price inflation on the production side of the global economy. The trade effects lower global growth, whereas the commodity effects work the other way. The key for the global prognosis is to assess the balance between these two opposing forces.

In my view, the negative trade effects will predominate. China’s explosive import growth has had a dramatic impact in boosting export growth in most of the world’s major economies. In Japan, for example, rapidly expanding shipments to China accounted for fully 43% of total export growth in 2003. The China factor accounted for 48% of total Korean export growth in 2003, 68% in Taiwan, 27% in Malaysia, 28% in Germany, and even 21% in the United States. Unless these countries have alternative markets to sell their exports or a backstop of improving domestic demand, the China slowdown will be a distinct negative. Unfortunately, that’s precisely the case with the countries enumerated above -- with the possible exception of the United States, where growth support has been more diversified, at least up until now. Chinese import growth has already been cut in half -- from 40% in 2003 to 22% on a Y-o-Y basis in September 2004. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that export growth has already begun to falter in recent months in Korea, Japan, Germany, and the US. With the China slowdown only in its early stages, the impacts on global trade should intensify a good deal further.

snip>

Oil may be a special case for China. While oil prices fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the Chinese interest rate hike, that may have been an over-reaction. For starters, China continues to be plagued by widespread energy shortages and power disruptions. That suggests even in the event of a further slowdown in economic activity, China’s oil and energy demand could remain surprisingly resilient. Moreover, China is a very inefficient user of energy; relative to the average developed country in the OECD, China consumes 2.3 times as much oil per unit of GDP. This is yet another reason to believe that the China slowdown could play a surprisingly limited role in pushing oil prices lower.

more...

[RawMaterials]

29. Office Depot cutbacks follow weaker earnings, cut 900 jobs

The Associated Press

DELRAY BEACH, Fla. - Office Depot Inc. plans to cut 900 jobs as it consolidates operations at eight call centers and offices in six states.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Office Depot - the nation's second-largest office supply retailer - said three of the facilities will close. The cuts were estimated to generate $15 million in annual savings.

Some operations will move to call centers located in Boca Raton and Norcross, Ga., the company said, affecting offices in Ohio, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Kansas and Texas.

The SEC filing Friday added that Office Depot "is continuing to review its cost structure in other operating units."

The announcement comes shortly after third-quarter earnings fell nearly 2 percent as back-to-school and European sales were weaker than expected, and follows Bruce Nelson's resignation as chairman and CEO. His temporary replacement, Neil Austrian, has said a lack of "execution and focus" plagued the company.

Austrian was a board member before he replaced Nelson.

[54anickel]

30. Baghdad Year Zero - Pillaging Iraq in pursuit of a neocon utopia

Someone shared this over the weekend here on DU. I'm afraid I can't remember who that was to give proper credit to the original poster. It's a long article, but I found it extremely interesting.

http://www.harpers.org/BaghdadYearZero.html

It was only after I had been in Baghdad for a month that I found what I was looking for. I had traveled to Iraq a year after the war began, at the height of what should have been a construction boom, but after weeks of searching I had not seen a single piece of heavy machinery apart from tanks and humvees. Then I saw it: a construction crane. It was big and yellow and impressive, and when I caught a glimpse of it around a corner in a busy shopping district I thought that I was finally about to witness some of the reconstruction I had heard so much about. But as I got closer I noticed that the crane was not actually rebuilding anything—not one of the bombed-out government buildings that still lay in rubble all over the city, nor one of the many power lines that remained in twisted heaps even as the heat of summer was starting to bear down. No, the crane was hoisting a giant billboard to the top of a three-story building. SUNBULAH: HONEY 100% NATURAL, made in Saudi Arabia.

Seeing the sign, I couldn’t help but think about something Senator John McCain had said back in October. Iraq, he said, is “a huge pot of honey that’s attracting a lot of flies.” The flies McCain was referring to were the Halliburtons and Bechtels, as well as the venture capitalists who flocked to Iraq in the path cleared by Bradley Fighting Vehicles and laser-guided bombs. The honey that drew them was not just no-bid contracts and Iraq’s famed oil wealth but the myriad investment opportunities offered by a country that had just been cracked wide open after decades of being sealed off, first by the nationalist economic policies of Saddam Hussein, then by asphyxiating United Nations sanctions.

Looking at the honey billboard, I was also reminded of the most common explanation for what has gone wrong in Iraq, a complaint echoed by everyone from John Kerry to Pat Buchanan: Iraq is mired in blood and deprivation because George W. Bush didn’t have “a postwar plan.” The only problem with this theory is that it isn’t true. The Bush Administration did have a plan for what it would do after the war; put simply, it was to lay out as much honey as possible, then sit back and wait for the flies.

* * *

The honey theory of Iraqi reconstruction stems from the most cherished belief of the war’s ideological architects: that greed is good. Not good just for them and their friends but good for humanity, and certainly good for Iraqis. Greed creates profit, which creates growth, which creates jobs and products and services and everything else anyone could possibly need or want. The role of good government, then, is to create the optimal conditions for corporations to pursue their bottomless greed, so that they in turn can meet the needs of the society. The problem is that governments, even neoconservative governments, rarely get the chance to prove their sacred theory right: despite their enormous ideological advances, even George Bush’s Republicans are, in their own minds, perennially sabotaged by meddling Democrats, intractable unions, and alarmist environmentalists.

Iraq was going to change all that. In one place on Earth, the theory would finally be put into practice in its most perfect and uncompromised form. A country of 25 million would not be rebuilt as it was before the war; it would be erased, disappeared. In its place would spring forth a gleaming showroom for laissez-faire economics, a utopia such as the world had never seen. Every policy that liberates multinational corporations to pursue their quest for profit would be put into place: a shrunken state, a flexible workforce, open borders, minimal taxes, no tariffs, no ownership restrictions. The people of Iraq would, of course, have to endure some short-term pain: assets, previously owned by the state, would have to be given up to create new opportunities for growth and investment. Jobs would have to be lost and, as foreign products flooded across the border, local businesses and family farms would, unfortunately, be unable to compete. But to the authors of this plan, these would be small prices to pay for the economic boom that would surely explode once the proper conditions were in place, a boom so powerful the country would practically rebuild itself.

more...

[UpInArms]

33. 10:51 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,021.13 -6.34 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,974.47 -0.52 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,129.16 -1.04 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.040% +0.011

NYSE Volume 326,469,000
Nasdaq Volume 429,441,000

10:30AM: Major indices give back some following the worse than expected October ISM Index... The national manufacturing report declined 1.7 points to 56.8 - its lowest reading since September 2003... This is a bit of a surprise to the market as it did not show the same surge seen in Friday's Chicago PMI Index - in which the regional manufacturing report climbed to 16-year highs... Instead, both the new orders and production components of the ISM came in below 59... September Constuction Spending was also released at 10 ET, and checked in at 0.4% (consensus of 0.9%)...

A s a result, the homebuilding group has turned negative...

nice little straight up spike on the Nasdaq :eyes:

[54anickel]

34. Instant rally in the pits at 10:56

Dow 10,031.25 +3.78 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,978.30 +3.31 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,130.44 +0.24 (+0.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.045% +0.016
30-yr Bond 4.809% +0.015
NYSE Volume 345,898,000
Nasdaq Volume 454,527,000

[54anickel]

35. U.S. stocks rally as oil falls below $50 a barrel

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041101/cf1889a83b5b8118fcd87610620b3d42_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks gained ground Monday as oil fell below $50 a barrel, in a market which remains unsettled by a
Presidential election race which is too close to call.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last up 47 points, at 10,074.

snip>

"For many, just getting past the election should kick off a nice technical rally as we enter the November to January favorable historical timeframe," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist, at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained a total of 10,175.23 points between November and February, but lost 1,909.47 points through May to October, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

snip>

Crude prices turned lower late morning on news of rising oil production out of Iraq and hopes a strike in Nigeria may not actually take place. :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

38. baseless hope drives markets would be a more

appropriate headline.

:eyes:

[54anickel]

36. The Dollar - The wolf at the door

http://www.economist.com/finance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=3329902

MOST economists, and this newspaper, have been fretting about America's huge current-account deficit and predicting the dollar's sharp decline for years. The trouble with crying wolf too often is that people stop believing you. After slipping 14% in broad trade-weighted terms since 2002, the dollar had stabilised this year, even as the current-account deficit continued to grow. This has encouraged some economists to offer theories explaining why America's current-account deficit does not matter and why the dollar need not fall further. But the dollar has now started to slide again: this week it hit $1.28 against the euro, within a whisker of its all-time low of $1.29. Trust us, the wolf is real.

The dollar's latest slide seems to have been triggered by uncertainty about the presidential election and a flurry of comments from Fed officials. Robert McTeer, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, mused (only “theoretically” of course) that when capital inflows into America dry up, “there will be a crisis that will result in rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar that will be very disruptive”.

Policymakers' usual reply when asked about exchange rates is to say that they are set by the market. But if the dollar was truly being set by the market it would now be much weaker. The dollar has fallen by over 30% against the euro since 2001, but its trade-weighted index has fallen by much less because of heavy intervention by Asian central banks, aimed at holding down their currencies against the dollar. This policy seems likely to continue, despite China's decision this week to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years. That decision was aimed at curbing its overheating domestic economy, rather than bolstering its currency.

Because Asian currencies have been held down against the dollar, America's current-account deficit has continued to swell, reaching almost 6% of GDP in the second quarter. The dollar is already below most estimates of its fair value against the euro, but it will need to undershoot if the deficit is to be reduced. Economists at UBS estimate that the dollar's trade-weighted value might need to fall by another 20-30% to trim the deficit by enough to stabilise the ratio of America's external liabilities to GDP. Though it might seem unthinkable, that could imply a rate of around $1.70 against the euro.

Other economists, however, argue that America can sustain its large current-account deficit for at least another decade, without a sharp fall in the dollar, because it will be happily financed by China and other Asian countries. In a series of papers Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber at Deutsche Bank have argued that the present arrangements resemble a revived Bretton Woods, the system of fixed exchange rates after the second world war.

more...

[UpInArms]

40. Dollar reclaims some lost ground (another bad headline)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1ABD984D%2DD704%2D48E4%2D9AE6%2D03E268D1BEA7%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar inched off of multimonth lows Monday as uncertainty ahead of the closely fought U.S. presidential election kept the currency market on tenterhooks.

"The event risk ahead of tomorrow's election, and fears that it could become a drawn out and contested affair that triggers significant political uncertainty, should limit the dollar's upside potential," said Alex Beuzelin, senior market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington.

"The most important factor for the greenback is not necessarily who wins the presidential election, but that it be decided in a clear and timely manner," he said. See related story on post-election dollar impact.

Most currency traders said Monday's gains were not a reflection of changed fortunes for the dollar. Rather, the market was consolidating after steep dollar declines last week.

The buck fell to eight-month lows against the euro and six-month lows against the yen, as record-high oil prices raised uncertainty the U.S. economy would be strong enough to draw foreign investor interest. With capital flows at risk, the sustainability of a wide U.S. trade imbalance was questioned anew.

The dollar did pare Monday's early gain following the release of the Institute for Supply Management's latest index, which showed the 18-month-long, U.S. factory-sector expansion slowed in October.

...more...

[54anickel]

42. So the question is no longer who wins the election, just that there not

be a repeat of 2000?

Interesting thought - if it's the big money plutocracy that now wants Shrub out because he has basically messed up their plans with his neo-con empire scheme (a belief I still hold as a possible theory for the sudden "bad news for Shrub" leaks), then it is possible that the huge risks to the markets at this point in time might be used to keep Shrubco out of the courts in a close election.

The really big money could use the current fragile state of the markets to convince the rabid Shrub cronies to back off.

Just having another :tinfoilhat: moment.

[54anickel]

37. Europe embraces a strong euro; that’s bad news

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P93619.asp?Printer

A higher euro means imports will become more expensive, the dollar will slide and we'll feel new inflationary pressures in the United States.

By Bill Fleckenstein

I believe that in hindsight, we will look back on a news story from Oct. 21 as the biggest development in the foreign-exchange market of the last 19 years, since the Plaza Accord of 1985.

In the Oct. 21 report, Bloomberg News reported that Dutch Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm, prior to chairing a meeting of the European Union ministers, said the euro's advance was "not an issue." When asked if worried about the currency trading at $1.30, he replied: "It is good for oil prices."

Finance ministers are usually more political than central bankers, which makes this statement from Zalm more powerful. And, the sentiment was echoed by many of his colleagues, including:

French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy: "A strong currency is better when commodity prices are high."
European Commission President Romano Prodi: "Certainly the euro is very high at this moment, but it's not true that European trade is bad. . . . (The euro's increase) has been some sort of protection (against oil costs)."
Spanish Economy Minister Pedro Solbes: "(The euro's rise) could help to offset the oil price rises in terms of inflation."

These comments reflect a transformed mindset on the part of the European authorities. It was only last February, when the euro was peaking around $1.28, that they feared its appreciation would short-circuit their economic recovery. At the time, "brutal" was European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s description of the currency's move. But in reading the previous comments, it is clear that, in the last nine months, their psychology has undergone a sea change.

more...

[54anickel]

39. 11:50 pre-lunch check in

Charts just starting to turn back south.

Dow 10,065.01 +37.54 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,980.99 +6.00 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,131.89 +1.69 (+0.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.076% +0.047
30-yr Bond 4.842% +0.048
NYSE Volume 556,665,000
Nasdaq Volume 662,344,000

11:25AM: Market continues to travel higher, spurred on by the rapid fall in the price of crude oil... The commodity has slipped below the $52/bbl mark and inspired equity buying in the process... Tech and biotech have been particularly strong and have launched the Nasdaq to last week's high at 1984... The Composite has stalled some at that level, so it remains to be seen if the rally can continue... Nonetheless, the indices are much improved and reflect both the positive breadth figures at the NYSE/Nasdaq and the solid industry participation...
Things have not been as great at the bond market, where treasuries are showing losses following the crude oil reversal...NYSE Adv/Dec 1572/1431, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1341/1532

11:00AM: Stocks pare some of their losses as the Dow and Nasdaq cross into positive territory... An ease in the price of crude oil - now up just $0.04 at $51.80/bbl - has prompted the modest wave of buying interest... The commodity had moved noticeably higher earlier on news a strike was imminent in Nigeria - the world's 7th largest oil exporter... Crude oil has since back off those levels, and has inspired selective buying across the board... Software, retail, computer hardware, biotech, and brokerage continue to show relative strength and offset losses in health care and airline...NYSE Adv/Dec 1475/1495, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1184/1614

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1719 (52%) 1462 (48%)
Declines 1352 (41%) 1440 (47%)
Unchanged 177 (5%) 142 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 262 (53%) 431 (70%)
Down Vol* 224 (45%) 175 (28%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (1%) 9 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 134 83
New Lo's 8 31

[54anickel]

41. Alice in Zeroland

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/oberholster103104.html

Alice in Wonderland came vividly to mind when I recently had reason to read a "staff working paper" published by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. The paper is called "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment". The stated objective of the paper is "to stimulate discussion and critical comment". The working paper can be found at this link, www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/#2004-48.

Reading this paper was a chilling reminder of just how fragile liberty truly is. The Federal Reserve Board publication persuades to be forward looking. It is not! The body consist of reviews and "empirical" evidence of successfully implemented strategies on a brainwashed investment public. You will find little of what is discussed or proposed that has not been implemented or is not in the process of being implemented when one matches the report with past and current economic activity.

snip>

These objectives will require direct management of private sector expectations and the question is asked. "How then can a central bank influence private sector expectations?"<6> The paper continues to answer its own question. "Shaping Policy Expectations: Evidence from a Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure. Our event studies confirm that FOMC statements have important influences, both direct and indirect, on private sector policy expectations."<7> The writers even claim success at sensitising market responses to those variables that the central bank wishes the market to focus on and to detract from undesirable developments. "If FOMC communications are responsible for the increased responsiveness of yields (and the associated policy expectations) to unexpected changes in payroll employment, it should also be the case that markets have responded less to macroeconomic developments not flagged by the Committee as likely to have a strong bearing on policy decisions."<8> It is carefully worded in the negative but translates to; we will tell you what is important and what is not important. Every effort will be made to control the thinking and behavioural patterns of other economic entities.

How did they do it? They used hints, strong hints and for maximum effect surprise the market with an unexpected strong hint. "Investors are most interested in statements that provide hints about the Committee's inclinations regarding future policy actions (as opposed to, for example, statements that describe past economic developments)."<9> "… indicating that statements providing new information about the prospective path of policy have a powerful effect on year-ahead policy expectations and hence, indirectly, on the five-year Treasury yield as well."<10> "Conditioning effects of policy statements. The immediate effects of official FOMC statements on policy expectations likely underestimates the overall impact of FOMC communications on expectations;"<11> It is concluded that the effectiveness of conditioning on market behaviour is underestimated!

It's all about make-believe. Even scare tactics will be employed when needed… "

more...

[54anickel]

44. 1:10 update

Dow 10,052.61 +25.14 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,978.65 +3.66 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,130.61 +0.41 (+0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.087% +0.058
30-yr Bond 4.846% +0.052
NYSE Volume 749,372,000
Nasdaq Volume 860,541,000

1:00PM: Stocks catch a bid and head near their highs of the day... Up volume continues to outpace down volume at the NYSE and Nasdaq, although the margin of lead is not that impressive... Volume also continues to trail levels set in the previous weeks as traders hold back in light of the election... In the past 15 minutes, there have been reports that saboteurs blew up a northern Iraq oil pipeline, which has sent the price of crude oil off its lows... The commodity now trades above the $50/bbl mark... As a result, it's unlikely the indices will stage a break-out in this half hour of trading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1768/1394, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1443/1536
12:30PM: Major indices edge off their best levels but hold tight to their mid-day trading range.. Buyers continue to show some hesitation in light of the Presidential election tomorrow... Given the closeness of the race and talk that early voting has had problems, it is possible the election will not be decided tomorrow... Instead, a 2000 scenario might develop in which the victor is not known for weeks... Briefing.com noted in this week's Tying It Together that from the day after the election until the day the Supreme Court heard arguments, the S&P 500 fell 8.1%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1724/1412, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1476/1480

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1754 (52%) 1461 (46%)
Declines 1420 (42%) 1532 (49%)
Unchanged 170 (5%) 131 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 354 (50%) 547 (66%)
Down Vol* 333 (47%) 266 (32%)
Unch. Vol* 18 (2%) 12 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 151 91
New Lo's 9 35

[UpInArms]

45. 1:35 EST numbers and blather (gains all gone now)

Dow 10,025.04 -2.43 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,972.59 -2.40 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,127.64 -2.56 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.087% +0.058

NYSE Volume 819,842,000
Nasdaq Volume 934,149,000

1:30PM: The market continues to sport thin gains as the daily news flow remains light... Few companies have reported today and must have withheld corporate announcements (with the exception of Oracle/PeopleSoft) with traders skittish for the election tomorrow... Regional banking, homebuilding, airline, and telecom service continue to put up gains, but biotech, networking, and consumer staple have recently turned negative... The latter has been impacted by a Deutsche Bank downgrade of Avon Products (AVP 37.76 -1.79) to Hold from Buy following the company's Q3 (Sept) earnings report last Friday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1726/1455, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1418/1576

[54anickel]

49. 1:51 Market a bit bi-polar today as well?

Dow 10,042.81 +15.34 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,976.82 +1.83 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,129.05 -1.15 (-0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.078% +0.049
30-yr Bond 4.837% +0.043
NYSE Volume 855,349,000
Nasdaq Volume 974,944,000

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1667 (49%) 1373 (43%)
Declines 1539 (45%) 1631 (51%)
Unchanged 162 (4%) 154 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 365 (45%) 576 (61%)
Down Vol* 435 (53%) 335 (35%) :crazy:
Unch. Vol* 6 (0%) 23 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 155 96
New Lo's 9 35

[Chicago Democrat]

50. Kerry Victory Pushing Market Up, Nigerian Oil Woes Pushing it

Down...

[JNelson6563]

46. What happened?

1:37 and things grow dark...

Dow 10,027.40 -0.07 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 1,972.90 -2.09 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,127.63 -2.57 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.087% +0.058

Just stopping by on a crazy busy day. Hope it's all good with you Marketeers! :hi:

Julie

[UpInArms]

48. hi Julie!

:hi:

looks like they're heading back up again

1:50 EST

Dow 10,042.44 +14.97 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,976.82 +1.83 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,129.05 -1.15 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.078% +0.049

NYSE Volume 855,349,000
Nasdaq Volume 974,944,000

[UpInArms]

47. Housing affordability sinks in Q3

Higher prices, slightly higher mortgage rates are culprits

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B406E45DF%2D282B%2D433A%2DB0CF%2DA517C2EF44EF%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. homebuyers found it more difficult to come up with the money for their house purchases in the third quarter, although housing affordability remained historically high in the period, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

The NAR's composite housing affordability index was 128.6 during the third quarter of 2004, down 3.7 percentage points from 132.3 in the second quarter; it was 7.6 points below the same period a year earlier when it stood at 136.2.

The decline was blamed on rising home prices. Still, the index shows the nation's typical household could afford to buy a home costing $242,400, well above the national median existing-home price in the third quarter, which was $188,500. That's up about 6.5 percent from the median of $176,900 in the third quarter of 2003.

<snip>

A separate index measuring housing affordability for first-time buyers also fell in the third quarter, down 2.4 percentage points to 74.7 from a reading of 77.1 in the second quarter; the index was 6.3 points below the third quarter 2003 index.

A typical first-time buyer household, age 25 to 44, with an income of $31,225, had 74.7 percent of the income needed to purchase a typical starter home with a 10 percent down payment. The median starter home price was $160,200 during the third quarter. The index shows the typical first-time buyer could afford a home costing $119,700.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. High oil prices trigger inflation worries in Midwest

http://www.grandforks.com/mld/grandforks/news/state/10070865.htm

OMAHA, Neb. - Oil prices at higher than $50 a barrel and rising prices for other supplies indicate increased inflation at the wholesale level, according to a manufacturing index released Monday.

The overall index of the Mid-America Business Conditions Survey declined slightly in October to 61.6 from September's brisk 63.9, Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss said.

A reading of 50 or above means the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a figure below 50 represents a contraction.

The index measuring prices paid for supplies was above 80 for a ninth straight month, indicating inflation, Goss said.

<snip>

Triggered by concerns about inflation, the uncertain presidential election and international political events, business confidence declined to 61.8 in October, its lowest reading since March 2003, or just before the war with Iraq, Goss said.

Despite a weak dollar making American goods less expensive abroad and foreign goods more expensive in the United States, the new export orders index declined to 53.7 from September's 54.2, while the regional import index rose to 60.2, its second highest level in more than 10 years, Goss said.

...more at link...

[RawMaterials]

52. Treasury Bills at Highest Level in 3 Years

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Interest rates on short-term Treasury bills rose in Monday's auction to the highest levels in three years.

The Treasury Department auctioned $21 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 1.950 percent. Another $19 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 2.140 percent.

The three-month rate was up from 1.855 percent last week and was the highest since three-month bills averaged 1.975 percent on Nov. 5, 2001. The six-month rate was up from 2.040 percent last week and was the highest since 2.160 percent on Oct. 15, 2001.

The new discount rates understate the actual return to investors - 1.987 percent for three-month bills with a $10,000 bill selling for $9,950.71 and 2.193 percent for a six-month bill selling for $9,891.81.



© 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[54anickel]

55. 2:34 and coming full circle back to where they started from

Market might as well not even bothered hangin' out the shingle today.

Dow 10,037.36 +9.89 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,976.63 +1.64 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,128.15 -2.05 (-0.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.087% +0.058
30-yr Bond 4.842% +0.048
NYSE Volume 973,189,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,095,386,000

2:00PM: Listless day of trading continues as the major indices hug the flat line... The S&P 500 has taken out an intraday support level near the 1130 area as it has dipped decisively into negative territory... Follow-through on the part of buyers continues to be weak in light of last week's winning (+2.8-3.1% for the major indices) performance for the market... This week holds several important things for the market - the previously mentioned election tomorrow and the October employment report on Friday...
The market will be looking to see convincing evidence of job growth, with the nonfarm payrolls consensus estimate set at 175K...NYSE Adv/Dec 1636/1575, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1413/1608

[UpInArms]

57. 2:41 and market jumps to life

Dow 10,056.01 +28.54 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,980.65 +5.66 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,130.66 +0.46 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.089% +0.060

NYSE Volume 1,003,884,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,119,888,000

[54anickel]

61. Splash o' blather

3:30PM : More of the same headed into the final half hour of regular session trading... Buyers continue to be put off by tomorrow's Presidential election, the recent run-up in the indices, and the potential for terrorist activity associated with tomorrow's events... Such worries have been large enough to overshadow a huge drop in the price of crude oil... Tomorrow is likely to see a similar session of trade as participants gear up for the evening exit polls... If a winner is declared, expected an interesting session of both equities and bonds tomorrow night...NYSE Adv/Dec 1837/1438, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1658/1530

3:00PM : Choppy day of trade continues as the indices now rally... A close in the price of crude oil near its lows of the session - down 3.6% to $49.90/bbl - has lifted equities to near their highs... Software, disk drive, homebuilding, airline, cyclical, retail, and telecom continue to be the biggest gainers and help keep the indices positive... Meanwhile, energy and health care continue to do their part to keep the market range-bound... Tonight, the market will contend with less earnings reports as compared to the past couple of weeks...

Maxim Integrated (MXIM 44.34 +0.35) is arguably the biggest name on tap...NYSE Adv/Dec 1839/1412, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1574/1513

2:30PM : Hasn't been the most inspiring afternoon of trade as buyers and sellers alike continue to lack conviction... The breadth figures continue to be mixed, sector leadership remains lackluster, and volumes are light - all signaling that investors are simply biding their time during today's session... The dollar has similarly seen little action today - declining against the euro overnight while regaining some ground against the yen... Commodities, however, have generally moved lower in conjunction with the decline in the price of crude oil... The CRB Index has dropped 2 points to 281.7 today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1728/1510, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1417/1656

[Tesibria]

56. Sorry to be a dufus - but remind me please?

.. my head's about to pop.

What is the rule again? The Dow would have to gain XXX points today to be a postive indicator for Bush? I remember reading about this last week, but can't remember what the exact "rule" is.

[54anickel]

60. It's related to the month of October and it points to a Kerry win

If you believe in the theory, it was all over with Friday's closing numbers.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/markets/election_dow/?cnn=yes

snip>

According to a recent study by the Hirsch Organization, publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac, if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value in the month of October before Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job. The Dow fell 0.52 percent in October.

This predictor has been true without exception from 1904 to the present, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and president of the Hirsch Organization.

snip>

So what would it have taken for the indicator to point to a Bush win?

For the president to be assured of a win, the Dow would have to be at 10,413 or above at the end of October, Hirsch said. That's because incumbents usually win when the Dow rises in October, but this is especially so if the gain is 3.3 percent or more.

[Tesibria]

63. thank you!! n/t

[UpInArms]

58. U.S. Expects to Borrow $100 Billion in Q4

3:00pm 11/01/04 U.S. EXPECTS TO BORROW $100 BLN IN Q4

3:00pm 11/01/04 U.S. EXPECTS TO BORROW RECORD $147 BLN IN Q1 2005

Will someone please make them stop using the taxpayers as co-signors to their freakin' insanity?

:grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr:

[KoKo]

59. Well....at least We Dems aren't going to have to live with the label of

"Tax and Spend," anymore. The Bushies/Repugs have reduced taxes while keeping the printing presses rolling day and night are spending it as fast as they can print it.

Amazing how they carried on for years about Debt and Big Government. We've got a Bloated Dept. of Homeland Security, now we are going to have an Intelligence Czar who will need a "staff" and "independent researchers" and I imagine the Pentagon is cooking on all burners....

Tsk Tsk...

[Laelth]

62. What's Sad Is ...

That the right will keep lobbing that groundless attack, even though it's an outright lie. Over the past 24 years--Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II--Clinton is the only President to balance the budget. Yet many American still believe that the Republican Party is the party of fiscal prudence. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

:silly:

-Laelth

[ramapo]

64. It really is so bizarre

Just goes to show...repeat a lie enough times and it becomes the truth

[Laelth]

68. That must be it.

Frankly, I've given up trying to understand. It's too depressing how loony our opposition can be.

:crazy:

-Laelth

[54anickel]

65. Closin' time

Dow 10,054.39 +26.92 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,979.87 +4.88 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,130.51 +0.31 (+0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.09% +0.061
30-yr Bond 4.847% +0.053
NYSE Volume 1,396,892,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,522,826,000

Close: The market squeezed out modest gains today despite a number of overhangs that kept overall enthusiasm in check... The lack of conviction was seen in the breadth figures, moderate volume totals, and split industry participation... Health care and energy never managed to get off the ground and kept the indices range-bound... The source of weakness for the oil-related stocks, however, was considered a positive development for market bulls - an over 3% decrease in the price of crude oil...

The commodity successfully shrugged off worries about a strike in Nigeria and an oil pipe explosion in Iraq, and finished at $50.13/bbl... The buying seen off this news did not last through the rest of the session as buyers remain troubled by tomorrow's Presidential election... Concerns that the victor would not be decided tomorrow night - with 2000's race in mind (the S&P 500 dropped 8% from the night of the election to the day of the Supreme Court ruling) - curbed widespread buying interest... Traders also preferred to back off long positions with last week's 2.8-3.1% run-up in mind... As a result, only a few sectors emerged as winners...

Software was one of those following Oracle's (ORCL 12.75 +0.09) sweetened bid for PeopleSoft (PSFT 22.93 +2.16)... Elsewhere, today's economic reports were fairly discouraging as most showed declines... September Personal Spending rose 0.6% (consensus of 0.6%), Personal Income showed a 0.2% gain (consensus of 0.3%), September Construction Spending came in flat (consensus of 0.4%), and the October ISM Index dropped to 56.8 (consensus of 58.5)... The latter was viewed as a disappointment with Friday's surge in the Chicago PMI Index (to 16-year highs) fresh in investors' minds...NYSE Adv/Dec 1926/1379, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1609/1534

3:30PM : More of the same headed into the final half hour of regular session trading... Buyers continue to be put off by tomorrow's Presidential election, the recent run-up in the indices, and the potential for terrorist activity associated with tomorrow's events... Such worries have been large enough to overshadow a huge drop in the price of crude oil... Tomorrow is likely to see a similar session of trade as participants gear up for the evening exit polls... If a winner is declared, expected an interesting session of both equities and bonds tomorrow night...NYSE Adv/Dec 1837/1438, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1658/1530

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1930 (55%) 1609 (49%)
Declines 1371 (39%) 1534 (46%)
Unchanged 155 (4%) 121 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 719 (51%) 963 (63%)
Down Vol* 657 (47%) 517 (34%)
Unch. Vol* 21 (1%) 37 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 192 119
New Lo's 13 42

[54anickel]

66. U.S. stocks end higher after oil ends at one-month low

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041101/9b875a18b9fe9582773975a433b973e4_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks ended higher Monday as blue chips posted a fifth straight session of gains on a one-month low for oil prices, but light trading volume pointed to caution on the eve of a Bush-Kerry presidential election that many say is too close to call.

snip>

Within the blue-chip benchmark, Merck (NYSE:MRK - News) was the biggest percentage decliner, sliding nearly 10 percent, in the wake of a Wall Street Journal Report that said the company downplayed the health risks of Vioxx, its recently-withdrawn arthritis drug.

snip>

"Because there is a vacuum right now one day prior to the big day, oil has the power to move the market," said Mark Bryant, senior vice-president at Brean Murray. "If oil was trading flat, this market would be trading flat."

"There are very few people who are going to make a major move in the market the day before the election."

snip>

Nevertheless, a survey of leading economists has concluded energy prices will not drag the U.S. economy into recession.

Energy prices will gradually retreat from current high levels and fall to $43.55 per barrel by the middle of next year before slipping to the $39.75 level by the end of 2005, according the latest forecast of economists released by Blue Chip Financial Forecasts.

more...

[54anickel]

67. Heh-heh, and +11Billion in O/N repos issued. Little emergency change

in the pockets - just in case...:evilgrin:

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html