Kerry Presidency Could Mean Cheaper Oil- Analysts

[Beaverhausen]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041101/pl_nm/energy_prices_election_dc

By Richard Valdmanis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices may cost as much as 10 percent less next year if U.S. Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) defeats President Bush (news - web sites) in Tuesday's election, some energy analysts said on Monday.


Kerry is seen as more likely to use the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to cool prices and is expected to have a less aggressive policy in the Middle East, lowering the risk of supply disruptions from the energy-rich region.

"Under a Kerry administration we'd likely have a much more interventionist SPR policy," said Jamal Qureshi, market analyst at PFC Energy in Washington. "And when you look out a bit further, Bush is more likely to be aggressive in the Middle East, particularly in Iran," he added.

Oil prices have jumped to record highs this year over $55 a barrel on concerns over tight supplies, unreliable shipments from war-torn Iraq (news - web sites) and growing demand from countries like China and India.

On Monday, a day ahead of the election, oil prices recoiled more than two dollars to dip below $50.

PFC predicts an average oil price of $43 a barrel in 2005 if Kerry wins, compared with $48 if Bush is reelected .

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more at the link

[Bozita]

1. That Yahoo story gets a 5 from me

[rjbny62]

2. just look at the enormous profits posted by the big oil companies lately

it appears that they are raking it in now before the fresh start

[goforit]

3. I've never been a socialist, but the Gov't needs to take over the OIL Ind.

The OIL industry has raped, pilaged, murdered and abused more
people here and in the US and abroad, that their greed and lust for power has got to come to an end!!!!!

We can not afford WWIII for these schmucks!!!

[Az_lefty]

4. Gets a "5" from me too...

Hey, I'm finally out of the 700 club!!!

:toast:

[Polly Glot]

5. Another reason why a Kerry presidency is great for business.

Thanks to the outrageous gas prices, so many small businesses are really hurting. If you jack up your prices to compensate for the high oil prices, you risk losing customers. If you keep them low, you risk going out of business entirely.

My hope is that our collective dependency on foreign oil becomes increasingly irrevelant thanks to Kerry's pledge to advance the search for alternative fuels.

[Sporadicus]

6. Hey, President Kerry! Three Words: Windfall Profits Tax! n/t

[Ganja Ninja]

7. And after Bush worked so hard to drive prices through the roof ...

Mission Un-Accomplished.

[lovuian]

8. Cheaper Gas I love that!!!

:bounce:

[peterh]

9. Maybe it’s just me trying to read between the lines….

But the recent downturn in prices have been a bit more extreme than what I would normally see based on the news items that are allegedly driving the market currently….

The downturn started on Wed. 27th with the release of the weekly DOE stats showing a modest 4 million bbl build in crude inventories and prices dropped $2.71 that day….extreme considering the build. Other factors such as labor disagreements in Norway and Nigeria now looking bearish to the market, also were getting factored in. We had a follow through on Thursday with a drop of $1.54….again based on the same factors with some profit-taking from the “funds”. Friday, we had what could be categorized as a typical “squaring the books” day ahead of the weekend, especially after two huge drops…crude gained $.84.

Currently, with the market just ending, crude is down $1.66 @ 50.20 (non-settlement) based on…..continued follow through from last week….it’s extreme folks. Not what I would normally see based on the existing factors….which brings me to “reading between the lines”…..it’s been documented that the price of crude has had a “terror premium” of anywhere from $10 to $15 attached to it since 9/11 and especially since Iraq. Me thinks there’s a “hint” here with some of the premium eroding in anticipation of a likely election result…..it might be a stretch, but this is kinda extreme for just 4 days activity.

[Anaxamander]

10. New headline: Speculators Bet on Kerry Win, Oil Down $2

:D

[redqueen]

11. It's a beautiful thing!

Rate both a 5. :D

[nookiemonster]

12. 4.08, lookin good eom