Speculators Betting on Kerry Win, Oil Plungling

[Bluebear]

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell sharply on Monday on speculation that a U.S. election win for Senator John Kerry could ease the geopolitical friction that has helped fuel this year's record-breaking rally.

U.S. light crude settled down $1.63 to $50.13 after diving as low as $49.30 a barrel, breaking below $50 the first time in nearly a month. U.S. crude peaked a week ago at $55.67 a barrel. In London, Brent crude lost $1.92 to $47.06 a barrel.

Energy analysts said a win for the challenger Kerry in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election could mean lower crude prices than if President Bush were reelected. Latest opinion polls can barely separate the two.

"Under a Kerry administration we'd likely have a much more interventionist SPR policy," said Jamal Qureshi, market analyst at PFC Energy in Washington. "And when you look out a bit further, Bush is more likely to be aggressive in the Middle East, particularly in Iran."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20041101/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

[Socialist Dem]

1. Hmm....Kerry = lower gas prices?

Gee....wonder why that is? :shrug:

[Bluebear]

3. Go figure! :)

[onehandle]

5. Less War=Cheaper Oil. It's always like this.

Bush and his merry band of war crazies don't understand this very basic concept.

[Old and In the Way]

7. No, I think they understand it quite well.

War = munitions contracts = Carlyle Group benefits
War = supply and rebuild contracts = Halliburton/NewBridge benefits
War = oil supply uncertainty = Big Oil benefits
War = torched Iraqi oilfields = Saudi Arabia benefits

Seems like the Republicans have all their bases covered.

[Gman]

8. Oh, they understand this concept quite well

and have taken full advantage of it.

[joeunderdog]

16. Here's what I don't get...

They lied about the reasons for war, and Americans (chose to) believe him. They lie about the economy being on the upswing and winning the war on terror, and they still believe. You could argue that thesse things are hard to (dis)prove.

But how do you lie about a 100% increase in the price of gas
a 23% increase in health insurance
a net job loss during a presidency
inflation at the grocery store (despite reports otherwise)
etc
etc
etc?

So many voters vote to keep more of their paycheck. Why do repubs refuse to even acknowledge hard numbers like this?

Don't believe us...look at the pump.

[eggplantparmesan]

20. huh?

100% gas increase?

The nationwide average is under 2 dollars...I don't remember gas being 99 cents a gallon in 2000...

And how can you claim there's inflation at the grocery store if every single report from every economist says there's not?

[joeunderdog]

21. Guess you're one of those people who don't even believe hard numbers.

Gas was 2.15 today for me. 90+% increase maybe? that's not enough for ya?

no inflation where you live? read those little orange tags. smaller product sizes mean less food/bigger prices. well, why would anything go up in price when the cost of the feul for shipping has doubled?

are your prescription drugs cheap over there in Freperville too?

[eggplantparmesan]

23. what was gas before for you?

Gas went up "90+ %" for you?

So it was a dollar and 12 cents in 2000?

Damn, I wish I lived there.

[joeunderdog]

25. You are wasting your (and our) time on this board.

Oil was $26 a barrel in 2k. That means it is now just below 100% more expensive than that now.

As you continue your drivel, you just prove my point: why can't republicans even add for themselves? these prices don't lie like the people selling the stuff.

#1 Bush contributor...EXXon

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html

[eggplantparmesan]

26. nowhere did you mention oil

All you or I spoke about was gas. And all I'm saying is that the price didn't double.

Or do you buy your oil by the barrel?

[Samantha]

28. Along that same vein

I had a disagreement some months ago with someone about the war in Iraq. I finally asked, "why do you think someone who lied about an election would tell you the truth about a war?"

[StupidFOX]

13. OH, GAWD NO! 50 CENT GAS TAX PEOPLE!!! (sarcasm)

What'll happen to the market if Bush wins? (ugggghhhh... I just threw up a little)

[54anickel]

22. Speculators will start to bail. Check out this article from last week

I posted this in the other oil down on Kerry win thread as well.

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/stocks/melissadavid/10190813.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

snip>
Since President Bush took office in early 2001, oil prices -- and oil stocks -- have surged to record levels. Some hold Bush, who hails from Texas oil country, at least somewhat responsible. Others dismiss his influence. But even the latter group tends to believe that Bush would do nothing to harm big energy companies during a second term in office.

Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry, on the other hand, might push for major changes.


snip>

Bush Factor
Gheit, for one, still marvels that energy prices have risen as high as they have.

He points to a "perfect storm" -- involving fears about supply disruptions in Norway, Russia and Venezuela -- as part of the explanation. But he says that Bush is responsible as well. He says the president chose to invade Iraq when oil inventories were particularly low. Moreover, he says, Bush later began stockpiling oil for the strategic reserve, and that "spooked" fast-growing countries -- such as China, India and Korea -- that rely heavily on imported fuel. From there, he believes, speculators capitalized on mounting anxieties and drove oil to record levels.

"It was almost a comedy of errors," he says. "One mistake was made, and the next seemed inevitable. ... I believe the ill-advised policies and actions of this administration have been a major contributor -- if not the cause -- of the run-up in oil prices."

more...

[mikehiggins]

2. That's a story that deserves a 5 vote.

Talk about Bush being hoist on his own petard.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

4. Great news

[crossroads]

6. I already knew this... does that make me psychic? lol

Hmmm

:shrug: :dem:

[hughee99]

9. I thought that

*'s friends, the house of Saud, were going to lower oil prices before the election to help him out?

[yellerpup]

10. Think it's too late for jawbonin'?

:dem:

[hughee99]

11. Yup.

It looks like even *'s friends want him out. A good sign for us!

[Ima]

12. and just when* could use the profit money

[AntiFascist]

14. This is great new for the U.S economy....

it means that there really is some hope, and perhaps the oil exporters are starting to see this.

[SoCalDem]

15. Gee..now they'll have to settle for ONLY 60% profits

:eyes:..

The increases in gasoline have gone directly to their bottom line..

[Tab]

17. Oh man!

We just stacked 5 cords of wood in anticipation of ridiculously high oil prices!

[Divine Discontent]

18. MO MENT UM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CAN YOU FEEL IT!!!!!!!!!????

[orpupilofnature57]

19. Money talks and * walks,or live by the BOARD die by a hoard

[smbolisnch]

24. Shocking news I tell you.......

nt

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

27. Yep those Demonrats just fuck up the economy