STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 2 November

[ozymandius]

Tuesday November 2, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 79
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP - 0! GOTV!!!
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 326 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 15 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1076
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 1, 2004

Dow... 10,054.39 +26.92 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq... 1,979.87 +4.88 (+0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,130.51 +0.31 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.09% +0.06 (+1.51%)
Gold future... 428.20 -1.60 (-0.37%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie

SUB-ROSA TRADE WAR

The winds of war are blowing. What is brewing is dangerous and ominous. Put aside the military warfare waged in Iraq and elsewhere. Adversaries have begun to align in opposition on a financial battlefield. Imagine an old manner of battle to the death from the Old West. A native plains bare-chested warrior and an anglo blue-coat soldier, or a nomadic warrior and an anglo settler/hunter, would be tied arm to arm with a rawhide strip. They would engage in a fierce hand-to-hand battle to the death with knives, unable to gain distance. That is the image in my mind as the upcoming trade war with China forms a foundation with clear directional pulls. The two nations, the USA and China, are inextricably linked through commerce. On the surface, the link appears to be mutually beneficial. Each is put at extreme risk, but for different reasons. Despite the inter-dependence, a titanic battle is soon to begin. The hint of war is unmistakable and unambiguous. It will in its early stages emerge as a “sub-rosa” protectionist exercise (hostility under the table), sure to morph into outright trade war.

-cut-

SLEEPY TIME, SLEEPY HEADS

Our nation of financially and mathematically illiterate citizens fails to comprehend and distinguish economic matters adeptly. Numerous contrasts can be stated which illustrate the perceptual and analytic inadequacies and shortcomings of our citizens as trade war looms. Such extreme misconceptions and misguided policy have led us to ever-widening imbalances which cannot be resolved under the current system and the current leadership. Nothing compares with the failure to comprehend the grand mega-trend reversal at work and still very much in progress. The Strong Dollar momentum in the last decade served as a tail wind which has now shifted into a deadly headwind of rising energy costs, rising production costs, and rising household costs. At the same time, in the past decade an overly valued USDollar enabled an Asian industry build-up to such an extent that prices cannot rise in the USA in either the manufacturing arena or the service arena. Their manufactured exports to our land are too omnipresent. The ease of service outsourcing is too simple.

-cut-

This summer marked an historical development in the commodity arena. China has tendered offers to secure copper and silver supplies, along with energy field development. China has begun its bold attempt to execute an end run around the commodity market, to secure their future supply, and in effect to lock out American customers. This spring we suffered interruption to large Florida construction projects, due to unavailable cement supply. Such disruption will become commonplace. Karl Marx warned that a capitalist will sell you the rope to hang that same capitalist. In this case, the USA will supply the shipping vessels to send commodity supply to China, as our nation suffers from lack of supply. A new battleground will become more apparent soon, supply chain guarantee, much like past shelf space battles in convenience stores. We have begun to sense our vulnerability, but to date, we have not executed on a single action in response. By making acquisitions, China benefits in other ways which are discussed in depth in my private newsletter.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

26. Another great wrap up by Jim Willie! n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I am leaving shortly to go vote. No idea what the lines may be like - if there are any lines. So my attendance here will be sporadic at best under any circumstances.

Friends and I are getting together tonight to watch the returns with plans to celebrate.

Best to all,

Ozy :hi:

[saigon68]

3. Me too

Have the day off-- going to do "voluntary driving"


lets go get those Bush Bastards

[Maeve]

4. Happy Voting Day, Marketeers!

We've been waiting for this day for so long--here we go!

Trading may be light today while voting should be heavy. Expect long lines and help keep the reports going here if you can.

Let's go get those Bush Bastards!

[MidwestMomma]

5. Happy Pink-Slip Day for W *

Just wanted to say hi and happy voting to all. Reading the Stock Market thread is part of my daily routine. Thanks to all who contribute.

Seems like I've been waiting FOREVER for the pink slip countdown to reach zero!

Oh Happy Day! Good day to all...

[54anickel]

6. Dollar Watch (Buck is doing the happy dance today!)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 85.35 Change +0.15 (+0.18%)

Settle 85.20 Settle Time 23:36

Open 85.22 Previous Close 85.20

High 85.51 Low 85.17


Oil prices decline, US dollar gains in pre-election trading
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_503336.html

NEW YORK, November 2 (newratings.com) – Crude oil prices stayed below the $50 per barrel mark hours before the US elections this morning, amid the pre-election profit booking activities after a record rally in oil prices in the recent past.

Crude oil prices have declined by more than $5 per barrel over the past one week, driven by the uncertainties associated with the outcome of the US elections, improved crude inventories and signs of declining economic momentum due to the high oil prices. The oil futures market witnessed accelerated profit-taking activities yesterday after speculations regarding a sharp decline in oil prices in the event that John Kerry wins the US presidential elections, given his potentially less-aggressive Middle East policy and the likelihood of the use of emergency oil reserves under his presidency. US light crude price declined to $49.75 per barrel, while the Brent crude oil price declined to $46.67 per barrel this morning, extending the previous day's sharp price decline. The US dollar also strengthened its position against the euro and Swiss franc this morning, boosted by the decline in oil prices.


Speculators bet on Kerry win, oil falls
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/02/content_387780.htm

snip>

"A Bush status quo results in somewhat higher oil prices both in the short and the longer term, in my view," said Tim Evans, senior analyst at IFR Energy Services.

PFC is forecasting an average U.S. crude price of $43 a barrel in 2005 should Kerry win, compared with $48 a barrel in the event Bush triumphed. It sees $52 on average in the first quarter 2005 under Bush compared with $45 under Kerry.

PFC said a Bush win could stoke nervousness about U.S. policies in the oil-producing Middle East, while Kerry is seen as more likely to work through diplomatic channels.

A Kerry victory could also mean more financing for renewable energy sources and trigger a push for tighter mileage standards for gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles.

"Conservation, in my opinion, is the only way to get us out of this hole which we put ourselves in," said Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

more...


Dollar gains as dealers sweat on US election result
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/114934/1/.html

LONDON : The dollar edged higher as voting got under way in the knife-edge US presidential election, but few analysts expected the US currency to win more than a fleeting boost whatever the outcome.

snip>

"I think it's going to continue to be the economic cycle and the structural imbalances that are likely to determine the path of the dollar. As far as actual drivers of the dollar are concerned, things are pretty negative out there at the moment," he said.

Some analysts argued that a clear victory for Kerry was likely to lead to a sell-off in the dollar due to the uncertainty associated with political change, while an emphatic victory for Bush could spark a dollar rally.

But few market watchers expected any respite for the dollar to last long, while most appeared to be bracing for a spell of uncertainty.

snip>

Simon Derrick, analyst at the Bank of New York, said there was a "distinct likelihood" of intervention from the Japanese finance ministry in the event of further dollar weakness.

"Rumours have been circulating the market place that there has been a tacit agreement struck between the Bush administration and the Japanese Ministry of Finance for the latter to refrain from any intervention to stymie yen strength, until after the elections," said Derrick.

more...

Edit for html

[54anickel]

9. Couple more dollar articles

GLOBAL FX DAILY - U.S. EDITION

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103140/content.asp?menu=market&banner=mellon

Key Points
• Position liquidation still benefiting the USD and this could extend sharply if a clear winner emerges.
• The tone of Friday’s employment report will be significant in determining how sustainable any postelection move (up or down) proves to be.
• Indications about the outcome of the contest are unlikely until after midnight GMT.
• Primary focus will be on overall voter turnout and exit polls in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
• High volatility could ensue in tonight’s Asian session if the news is unclear.
• UK CBI retail survey shows rebound.


Market Outlook
An unwillingness on the part of some to carry existing short USD positioning through the uncertainty of the Election result has boosted the USD over the past 24 hours and this could continue quite sharply in the short-term if a clear winner does emerge from today’s contest (see below for a preview of the important points to look for in today’s Election).

A move back to the mid-1.26s could be seen today (prior to the result), while a clear victor would likely set up a retest of the 1.2450-1.2500 previous resistance area, although in the instance of a Kerry victory the market may initially be unsure. A high degree of volatility could occur during tonight’s Asian session if the news flow about the outcome is ‘uneven’.

A winner would boost the USD initially, but sentiment about the economic outlook will most likely decide medium-term prospects and yesterday’s ISM report was a little disappointing in this regard. It is still comfortably above the 50 level, although some strength in the employment report may also be required if any post-election USD short covering rally is to have any chance of being sustained. Tomorrow’s ISM for non-manufacturing will also be important.

If today’s contest ends in deadlock and legal acrimony it will be another big blow to USD confidence and a test of the February high on EUR-USD at 1.2930 could follow. However, some further complicity in the economic data is also likely to be required to send EUR-USD roaring into new territory for the year, given how short of USDs the market already is. A ‘dead heat’ in 2004 would not be the nasty surprise it proved to be in 2000.

more...


DAILY FOREX COMMENTARY
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/108010/content.asp?menu=market

Just like death and taxes, we can always count on the BoJ to threaten or carry carry out FX intervention. Last night, Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki stated once again, “We are ready to take appropriate action if foreign exchange rates start to move in a manner which doesn't reflect fundamentals." It would seem based on recent comments, where there were none just a few weeks ago, that the 105 level is where major exporters would likely be negatively impacted. Higher oil prices are also part of the reasoning behind his statement, although with the drop in the last two days to under $50 bbl, perhaps this will take some pressure off. With mostly negative data surprises out of Japan, rather sluggish equity inflows and stagnating export growth, the Yen managed a sizable rally, accompanied by a rather sudden increase in Yen bullishness. With this backdrop and the decision on the election upon us, it does not seem like the right time to be a Yen bull. While this is not a recommendation to go long the dollar vs. yen, if you are short at present levels, taking some money off the table is prudent.

While the story on the Yen is not particularly new, it does shed light on the recent moves lower in the dollar in general. It appears that negative dollar sentiment is at an extreme, and risk reversals are far more likely. Yesterday’s worse than expected ISM data saw the dollar rally, and with a large speculative position in the dollar currently, the election and payroll data on Friday, the risk is for dollar strength.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. Forex - Dollar firmer vs yen in Tokyo ahead of US presidential election

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1099370761-9e32d306-04511

TOKYO (AFX) - The dollar was slightly firmer against the yen but remained top-heavy in early afternoon trade, with market players in Asia keenly awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election, dealers said. At 1.00 pm in Tokyo (0500 GMT) the dollar stood at 106.43 yen, up from 106.39 in Sydney and down from 106.45 in late New York trade. The US unit has traded between 106.27 yen and 106.64 yen so far in Tokyo

<snip>

Nonetheless, some analysts said the US unit could gain after the US elections, whichever candidate wins

"The dollar's falls in recent weeks were led by short-term speculators capitalizing on uncertainty over the US (presidential) election without real investor involvement, so once things become clear after the election -- regardless of who wins -- speculators would need to buy dollars back," Kikuko Takeda, a market analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd, said. Some point to caution over the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which acts at the behest of the Ministry of Finance (MoF), potentially stepping in to stem the rise of the yen. But JP Morgan Chase's Sasaki remains doubtful whether the MoF would actually intervene. "It's a matter of the speed (of the yen's rise) ...unless the yen breaks 103.40 yen against the dollar by the end of the month, I doubt whether the (BoJ) could step in." Tokyo-Mitsubshi's Takeda also said it is unlikely that Japan's monetary authorities would attempt to hinder the yen's rise

"When they sold the yen actively (before mid-March), there were still uncertainties over Japan's economic outlook. Now things have changed and the MoF has no reason to justify (yen-selling intervention)," given that Japan's economic recovery remains on track, Takeda said

...more...

[JNelson6563]

7. Happy election day Marketeers!!

I'm down at HQ, been here since 6:30, incredible activity already!

I will check in as time permits, I hope everyone has a great and productive day! Turn your region blue!

Cheers-

Julie

[54anickel]

13. Hey Julie!!! Keep us up to date on the revolution over there! Again,

thanks for all of your hard work this year in tossing the usurper outta Al's house!

[54anickel]

8. Households Run Record $342 Billion Deficit!

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/109940/content.asp?menu=macro

With today’s release of third quarter GDP data, we see that households outdid themselves by spending a record $342 billion at an annual rate on consumer goods and services and residential investment more than they received in disposable (after-tax) income. The history of household surpluses, now deficits, is shown in Chart 1.

Now, of course, this is a little “yellow” journalism on my part. To be more forthright, this $342 billion household deficit should be scaled against something – something like Disposable Personal Income (DPI). So, that’s what is shown in Chart 2 – the household surplus or deficit as a percent of DPI. Both the quarterly as well as the 4-quarter moving average observations of this percentage are presented in Chart 2. As a percent of DPI, the household deficit in this past third quarter was 4.0%. So, for every dollar of after-tax income received by households, they spend a dollar and 4 cents. For a given quarter, this is not a record relative deficit. The record was set in third quarter of 1950 when folks spent $1.05 for every dollar of after-tax income received. But on a 4-quarter moving average basis, we American households did set a post-WWII relative deficit record of 3.1%.

Prior to 1999, the last time households ran net deficits of any consequence was right after World War II. At that time, it made a lot of sense to run deficits. During World War II, we did not produce much in the way of consumer durables or private housing. A disproportionate amount of US output was devoted to the war effort. And because there was little for households to legally purchase, the household saving rate skyrocketed. So, during the war, household balance sheets got put into great shape and the capital stock of consumer durables and housing fell. It was quite natural, then, for households to run deficits for a few years after the end of World War II.

But is it natural now? Is it natural that a population laden with aging Baby Boomers who have entered their prime saving years would be running record budget deficits? Well, we are just doing what Alan Greenspan is encouraging us to do. With the CPI up 2.5% vs. year-ago and with the fed funds rate at 1.75%, the before-tax inflation-adjusted return on saving is negative. After taxes, the return is even more negative. Herb Stein, one of President Nixon’s economic advisers said something along the lines as follows: Something that can’t go on won’t. Households cannot continue to run deficits. So they won’t. Over the next three to five years, households will move back into surplus positions. Now, if exports and business capital spending offset the slowdown in consumer spending and residential investment, GDP growth need not slump. Odds are that GDP will slump. But regardless, those industries dedicated to discretionary consumer spending and housing are going to experience weak demand going forward. Adjust your stock portfolios accordingly.

The charts referred to are in the pdf file linked at the end of the article.

[trogdor]

15. Well, everyone needed a new car...

...and there was this nifty new gadget called television. Most people paid off their TV's on time, just like cars.

[54anickel]

10. Pre-opening yada

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.21. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1500.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1469.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 6.50 pts. at 1497 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the recent breakout above the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.50. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, a test of October's high crossing at 1143.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1116 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 3.50 pts. at 1134.30 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

8:48AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -297.0 (Typo?). Futures hold steady...election has many talking of a "wait and see" until tomorrow, but that doesn't preclude some volatility today...

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures ease a bit, but remain upbeat...oil is down 15 cents...dollar is little changed, and most European exchanges are slightly higher...Walgreen (WAG) reported same store sales up 8.1%, ahead of the 6.5% Briefing.com consensus...

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Election day...that, of course, is the main issue today...futures are higher, suggesting that the market is looking forward to finally having a result - as long as there is a clear winner...also possibly helping the tone are good earnings reports from AmerisourceBergen (ABC) and Emerson (EMR), and oil is down a bit more.

7:48AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures hold steady...election has many talking of a "wait and see" until tomorrow, but that doesn't preclude some volatility today...

6:26AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5.





U.S. stocks set for election-day gains on weak oil
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041102/5a2ef1d7773d7f205631d96f7b763e0a_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stock futures were pointing to a higher open Tuesday as oil prices held steady and voters began casting their ballot for the next president of the United States.
Several investors are saying the best outcome for the market is a clear-cut victory for either candidate, which could set the stage for a rally in stocks in the final months of the year.

Dow futures were up 16 points at 10,058, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 3.50 points, to 1,495 while S&P 500 futures climbed 2 points, to 1,132.80.

Market activity could improve after a depressed third quarter for stocks and debt trading if a "clear" result emerges from the U.S. presidential election, said Clive Standish, chief financial officer at UBS.

"Assuming there is a clear result, it is quite possible that market activity may become more buoyant, although there are plenty of reasons to be cautious," CFO Clive Standish said after UBS posted its third quarter profits, Agence France-Presse reported from Zurich.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Research reveals sun may come up

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

Seasonal wonders
It’s hard to believe it’s that time of year again. Here in Texas, daytime temperatures now dip below 80, and the first snowfall is just a plane ride away. This can only mean that the September/October edition of the New York Fed’s Current Issues in Economics and Finance is on the internet for our downloading pleasure. This month’s article is titled “Reserve Accumulation: Implications for Global Capital Flows and Financial Markets,” which, if you ask me, is too long and not exactly to the point. The CIEF could have saved valuable cyberspace by simply calling the piece “Uh-Oh.”

This NY Fed piece is a good one, especially for one written by economists. And that’s not just because there’s not a single mathematical formula in the entire article. In fact, the piece is so well written that they do a great job of summarizing their own article, which makes life easy for someone adept at using the “copy-paste function.” Here’s their snappy summary:

Central bank holdings of foreign currency assets, particularly foreign government securities, have risen sharply in recent years. Known as foreign exchange reserves, these holdings reached $3.0 trillion at the end of 2003, up roughly $600 billion from 2002, and more than double their level in 1995.

Okay, so you might not leap out of your chair with joy if you are all set to watch a golfing accident on America’s Funniest Home Videos when suddenly the screen goes black and the above synopsis on foreign central bank activity appears on the screen in white letters. But here’s the rest of the story: The foreign government securities they are talking about are OUR government securities. As the authors put it, “In recent years, foreign central banks’ dollar reserve purchases have accounted for a large share of the capital flowing in for the acquisition of U.S. assets.” The authors figure that these purchases finance a whopping 83% of the US current account deficit, with private investors shouldering the remaining 17%. All this purchasing of dollar assets leads the NY Fed folks to believe that a “…decline in dollar reserve purchases from recent heavy levels would remove one source of support for U.S. asset prices, which might then have to fall to attract a compensating increase in purchases by foreign private investors.”

snip>

What the Fed hath wrought

Speaking of paltry yielding investments, evidently there are enough individuals and institutions so fed up with the miserable returns generated by their money market accounts, and so petrified of anything with a maturity longer than the life span of a fruit fly, that new Semi-Money Market accounts are a hot ticket. These are short term funds that reach for yield by buying riskier credits or longer maturities. In other words, they don’t necessarily end up the day selling for an even dollar. According to a Bloomberg story, these products can vary greatly and can come in the form of private placements, separately managed accounts, or registered investments funds. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with a short term bond fund for people who know they are buying a short term bond fund. But people who think they are buying a money market fund that just happens to be a little turbo-charged may wind up semi-surprised.

[54anickel]

12. Global: The Day after Tomorrow (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041101-mon.html#anchor0

Unlike most of my fellow citizens, November 3 will not find me waking up at home to “morning in America.” Instead, I’ll be spending a sleepless night on yet another airplane, full of apprehension over the outcome of a bitterly contested presidential election. Hopefully, the morning after will bring a clear-cut verdict. Whatever your preference, another cloud of ambiguity is the last thing the world’s greatest democracy needs. Yet with Wednesday morning also comes the proverbial cold shower -- a wake-up call that cuts through the fiction of campaign rhetoric and focuses on the heavy lifting that now lies ahead. My concern is that whoever wins, the next four years are going to be unusually challenging from the standpoint of America’s economic stewardship. We can only hope that the victor is up to the task.

In the financial markets, we endlessly debate the prognosis for next quarter’s numbers -- GDP, earnings, inflation, and the like. Our fixation on the here and now reflects both the difficulties of longer-term forecasting as well as the short-termism of the investment community. Each quarter that we escape a problem, the greater the comfort level as to what lies ahead. Such myopic risk assessment misses the forest for the trees. In my view, the US economy is an accident waiting to happen. That’s the message to be taken from a record shortfall in national saving, a record current-account deficit, record levels of household indebtedness, a record deficiency of personal saving, and outsize government budget deficits. The emphasis is on the word “record.” Never before has the United States pushed the envelope to this degree on such a wide array of economic imbalances.

The politicians haven’t touched these issues in Campaign 2004. That’s hardly surprising. After all, the resolution of imbalances may actually imply some personal economic sacrifice -- not exactly the approach that attracts votes. Just ask Jimmy Carter or Walter Mondale. But the campaign is now over. The rhetorical flourishes hopefully will subside. And America will wake up the day after tomorrow with the most daunting economic agenda it has faced in a generation. Then, the real debate can begin.

I continue to believe that the national saving construct offers the most comprehensive framework to understand many of America’s toughest economic challenges. I focus, in particular, on the net national saving rate -- the combined saving of households, businesses, and the government sector. For, macro purposes, such saving is best viewed in “net” terms -- that is, after subtracting out that portion of gross saving that goes toward depreciation, or the replacement of worn-out or obsolete capital stock. It is a basic accounting rule of economics that saving must always equal investment. The net national saving rate provides a clear sense of how much society is setting aside out of current income generation in order to fund the net growth in new productive capacity -- the sustenance of future economic growth.

The verdict from America’s net national saving rate is nothing short of frightening: It fell to a record low of 0.4% in early 2003 and has since rebounded to just 1.9% as of mid-2004. While official 3Q04 estimates are not yet available, a sharp plunge in the personal saving rate to 0.4% (from 1.2% in the second quarter), in conjunction with diminished corporate profits growth and outsize government budget deficits, points to a further decline in overall national saving. These trends leave America’s net national saving rate in the 1-2% range over the 2003-04 period -- all-time lows by any standard. Such anemic saving speaks of a nation that is living well beyond its means, as those means are defined by America’s domestic income generating capacity. A record-low saving rate also ties together many of America’s other economic problems:

more...

[54anickel]

14. Investors prepare for cliffhanger vote in U.S

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/01/yourmoney/market.html

Investors around the world are girding for the possibility that the U.S. presidential election, like the one four years ago, could devolve into a interminable quarrel over contested ballots and voting laws.
.
If investors wake up Wednesday morning to find that neither George W. Bush nor John Kerry has been elected president, global markets could face a period of instability and volatile trading until a winner is determined.
.
Some investors have already decided to dump the dollar if that happens, analysts said Monday.
.
"It will be a classic case of 'go-with-the-trend' if there is a disputed election," said Alan Ruskin, the research director of 4Cast in New York, which recently surveyed traders about their outlook for the U.S. currency. "An unresolved election seems sure to drive down the dollar."
.
Investors said this prospect would not portend a deep-seated crisis of confidence in the dollar, according to analysts of currency market dynamics.
.
Though the election weighs heavily on the minds of traders from London to New York and Tokyo, the market weathered the U.S. election debacle four years ago without a meltdown.

snip>

Investors said they nonetheless were taking precautions.
.
By moving funds to investments that are typically more stable than currencies - government bonds in the United States and in Europe, for example - speculators are cushioning themselves against the possibility that the dollar will fall, Wattret said.

more...

[54anickel]

16. 9:42 Casino's open

Dow 10,069.96 +15.57 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,982.80 +2.93 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,132.16 +1.65 (+0.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.083% -0.007
30-yr Bond 4.843% -0.004
NYSE Volume 69,935,000
Nasdaq Volume 125,598,000

[54anickel]

17. India Taps China's Reserve of Technological Talent

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/02/business/worldbusiness/02india.html

BANGALORE, India, Nov. 1 - When Infosys Technologies began scouting for an alternative to India as a source of unlimited, low-cost human resources, the fast-growing company came up with one answer: its home country's archrival, China.

snip>

Infosys, the Bangalore-based software services company, and other top Indian outsourcing rivals, including Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro Technologies, are doing application development and maintenance work in China as they grow rapidly to keep up with booming demand from the West for their services.


And they are quickly concluding that only China has a worker base equal to India's in terms of cost, quality and scale. Expansion there also offers the ability to cater to - and possibly garner more of - the local and regional markets, including Japan.

Vigorous global demand - revenue from India's information technology exports was $12.5 billion in the year ended in March, up 30 percent from the previous year - has resulted in a 10 percent to 15 percent annual rise in wages in India's software and back-office services industry.

According to a KPMG study for the National Association of Software and Services Companies, or Nasscom, an industry trade group in India, the country will face an acute shortage of technical employees by 2009, falling short by about 250,000 workers.

"We need a deep reservoir of talent as well as an alternative low-cost center like India as we continue to grow," said Nandan Nilekani, chief executive of Infosys, who has talked of his company's scaling up to become the Wal-Mart of outsourcing. "And only China can match up."

more...

[54anickel]

18. Sysco warns of inflation on foods

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f6799ad8-2c74-11d9-8339-00000e2511c8.html

Sysco, the largest distributor of food in the US, yesterday warned that inflation on critical foodstuffs such as beef was set to continue, keeping pressure on the country's sluggish restaurant business.


Suppliers have successfully passed on the price increases to customers, but lower discretionary spending among the hungry has left sales stalled. The outlook from companies such as Sysco is viewed as an increasingly important bellwether of the broader business, with distribution costs now accounting for 50 per cent of dollar food spend.

The Houston-based company's sales rose 5.6 per cent to $7.5bn in the three months to September 30, but this reflected inflation of 5.9 per cent and a 0.5 per cent contribution from acquisitions. USFoodservice, its closest rival, saw sales rise 2.9 per cent in the same period.

Higher fuel and packaging costs have added to the pressure on foodstuffs, though the latest quarter represented a slowdown from the 8 per cent seen by Sysco in the three months to June 30. The company said dairy and poultry prices could be expected to decline from peak levels, but the opening of US beef exports to Japan was likely to maintain pressure in that segment.

more...

[54anickel]

19. 10:29 and flying high

Dow 10,127.24 +72.85 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,996.58 +16.71 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,138.69 +8.18 (+0.72%)
10-yr Bond 4.091% +0.001
30-yr Bond 4.847% 0.00
NYSE Volume 319,123,000
Nasdaq Volume 410,628,000

10:00AM: Market action is extremely tame early on... The SOX semiconductor index is a notable underperformer, down 1.0%... Yesterday after the close National Semiconductor (NSM 15.92 -0.77) reduced its sales outlook, citing weak demand in Asia...NYSE Adv/Dec 1501/1039, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1277/1058

9:40AM: Stocks open modestly higher, in line with futures indications...hopes that a clear winner will emerge from the election today are providing a lift, as there is much talk that a year-end rally could occur absent a disputed outcome...oil is down about 10 cents, European markets are mostly higher, and earnings reports were generally good...


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1842 (61%) 1667 (61%)
Declines 978 (32%) 897 (33%)
Unchanged 188 (6%) 154 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 140 (64%) 267 (80%)
Down Vol* 73 (33%) 61 (18%)
Unch. Vol* 4 (1%) 5 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 120 67
New Lo's 6 14


Gotta run for a while, errands and election shuttle for "Dad" and his friends. Will check back later this afternoon.

[UpInArms]

20. Hey-Ho Marketeers!

quick drop-in for me to say hello and post a few numbers:

11:07 EST

Dow 10,126.06 +71.67 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,998.89 +19.02 (+0.96%)
S&P 500 1,139.01 +8.50 (+0.75%)
10-Yr Bond 4.091% +0.001

NYSE Volume 479,839,000
Nasdaq Volume 601,747,000

11:00AM: Market holds onto its gains...there are earnings reports after the close today and before the open tomorrow, but fortunately there aren't any major ones, because they will get lost in all the election issues...the most significant are Time Warner, Cigna, and Prudential...the economic reports tomorrow are also of the minor variety: factory orders and the ISM services index...NYSE Adv/Dec 1997/929, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1713/984

[Maeve]

22. 1:01 update

Dow 10,120.39 +66.00 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,000.28 +20.41 (+1.03%)
S&P 500 1,139.62 +9.11 (+0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.095% +0.005

12:30PM: Market maintains its positive disposition on fairly broad-based participation from both a market-cap and industry standpoint... In that regard, big-cap technology shares appear to be the main pocket of strength as evidenced by the 1.20% gain in the Nasdaq 100, which places it ahead of all other major indices today... Separately, the Nasdaq Composite is just off its best levels of the session, but with today's advance, has ventured back above the 2,000 mark for the first time since July...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[Maeve]

23. 2:32 and remaining cheerful

Dow 10,122.30 +67.91 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,001.99 +22.12 (+1.12%)
S&P 500 1,140.02 +9.51 (+0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 4.087% -0.003

2:00PM: The indices have leveled off over the past three hours, as election watch continues...there are earnings reports after the close today, a few economic releases tomorrow, and same store sales data tomorrow and Thursday, but all pales relative to election results...Nasdaq showing good resistance at 2,000...SOX semiconductor index now up 0.8%...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[54anickel]

24. 3:06 and what happened to all the happy, happy? Exit polls?

Dow 10,055.72 +1.33 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,989.39 +9.52 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,132.83 +2.32 (+0.21%)
10-yr Bond 4.085% -0.005
30-yr Bond 4.846% -0.001
NYSE Volume 1,259,836,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,417,324,000

2:55PM: Market takes a quick dive...nervousness over possible election outcomes emerges...NYSE Adv/Dec 2191/1079, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1891/1171
2:30PM: Indices retain slightly bullish bias, as volume slows a bit...airline sector is up strongly today...oil is down just 15 cents, but continuing its slide...computer peripherals are also very strong, while commodity stocks are weak...StemCells Inc (STEM 4.22 -0.06) is very active today as an election play, based partly on propositions...Merck (MRK 27.04 -1.24) is NYSE most active as its debt was put on credit watch by S&P...NYSE Adv/Dec 2184/1045, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1853/1195

2:00PM: The indices have leveled off over the past three hours, as election watch continues...there are earnings reports after the close today, a few economic releases tomorrow, and same store sales data tomorrow and Thursday, but all pales relative to election results...Nasdaq showing good resistance at 2,000...SOX semiconductor index now up 0.8%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2213/1008, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1859/1170

1:30PM: Market is settling into a holding pattern with slight upward bias...Nasdaq continues to hold just above 2,000...commodity stocks are the weakest today, as gold, oil, metals, and aluminum are on the weak sector list, while there are a number of strong sectors including financials in general and insurance in particular...NYSE Adv/Dec 2210/991, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1873/1100

[Maeve]

25. Profit-taking ahead of a possible bumpy ride?

:shrug: I think some of the investors are getting surprised by the turnout and are spooking. The Challenger numbers weren't very cheerful, either...

[54anickel]

27. U.S. stocks jarred by early call favoring Kerry (LOVE THAT LINE!)

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041102/d01a8c41aeb3b86f6e86c4fb0a407e84_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks fell from their highs Tuesday amid reports that John Kerry is putting in a strong early showing at the polls.
"The only thing I can see is that the Drudge Report shows the preliminary exit polls showing Kerry within striking distance," said Jay Suskind, director of trading of Ryan, Beck & Co.

Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter Boockvar said the fall was on nothing in particular, but also mentioned the Drudge Report showing that Kerry was running more competitively than initially thought.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last up 12 points at 10,067, paring early gains which saw the benchmark index climb as high as 10,132.99.

snip>

On the data front, layoff announcements fell 5.6 percent in October, outplacement firm Challenger Grey & Christmas said in its monthly survey.

Despite the decline, layoffs remained above 100,000 for the second straight month, for the first time since January-February 2003.

"The job market appears to be stuck in the mud. Every time it looks as if things are going to rebound for the nation's workers, a series of reports deflates the optimism," said John Challenger, chairman of the firm, said in a statement.

more...

[54anickel]

28. 3:35 update

Dow 10,041.55 -12.84 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,984.34 +4.47 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,131.02 +0.51 (+0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.075% -0.015
30-yr Bond 4.838% -0.009
NYSE Volume 1,426,393,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,598,459,000

3:30PM: Market is reacting to various rumors as to how election results are coming in...that makes it volatile, and we would caution against placing too much emphasis on any early returns, much less on early exit polls...NYSE Adv/Dec 1884/1406, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1583/1479
2:55PM: Market takes a quick dive...nervousness over possible election outcomes emerges...NYSE Adv/Dec 2191/1079, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1891/1171

2:30PM: Indices retain slightly bullish bias, as volume slows a bit...airline sector is up strongly today...oil is down just 15 cents, but continuing its slide...computer peripherals are also very strong, while commodity stocks are weak...StemCells Inc (STEM 4.22 -0.06) is very active today as an election play, based partly on propositions...Merck (MRK 27.04 -1.24) is NYSE most active as its debt was put on credit watch by S&P...NYSE Adv/Dec 2184/1045, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1853/1195

2:00PM: The indices have leveled off over the past three hours, as election watch continues...there are earnings reports after the close today, a few economic releases tomorrow, and same store sales data tomorrow and Thursday, but all pales relative to election results...Nasdaq showing good resistance at 2,000...SOX semiconductor index now up 0.8%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2213/1008, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1859/1170

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1928 (56%) 1552 (47%)
Declines 1360 (39%) 1512 (46%)
Unchanged 147 (4%) 171 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 793 (60%) 995 (66%)
Down Vol* 506 (38%) 493 (32%)
Unch. Vol* 16 (1%) 16 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 250 124
New Lo's 13 25

[Maeve]

30. 3:49 and the red ink flows

Dow 10,012.58 -41.81 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,978.94 -0.93 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,128.37 -2.14 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.075% -0.015

[UpInArms]

31. 3:55 EST numbers and blather (pouring on the coals)

Dow 10,031.09 -23.30 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,982.32 +2.45 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,130.11 -0.40 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.075% -0.015

NYSE Volume 1,573,791,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,748,544,000

3:30PM: Market is reacting to various rumors as to how election results are coming in...that makes it volatile, and we would caution against placing too much emphasis on any early returns, much less on early exit polls...NYSE Adv/Dec 1884/1406, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1583/1479

[54anickel]

32. Awww, what's the matter with them? Oil's down, market's down, but

they said earlier it wouldn't matter who won, as long as it wasn't all drawn out again. Then the oil market starts with the confessions of how good Bush was for them.

Got a hunch they feel Shrub won't go down without a fight. With Kerry doing as well as he is this early, they must figure it's gonna get drawn out by Shrub crying and fighting. :evilgrin:

Let's give 'em Kerry by a landslide to make 'em feel happy again!

[54anickel]

29. Oil Drops Below $50 as U.S. Votes (Party's over boys!)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6691959

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil dropped below $50 a barrel on Tuesday to the lowest price in more than a month, extending a $6 slide from recent peaks as the U.S. presidential election got under way.
Rising U.S. crude stockpiles, signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and speculation that an election victory for Senator John Kerry could prove bearish for oil have triggered the 11 percent decline from last Monday's record.

U.S. crude closed down 53 cents at $49.60, the lowest close since Sept. 29 and the first close under $50 since Oct. 4. London Brent crude was off 56 cents at $46.50 a barrel after sliding almost $2 Monday.

As U.S. electors went to the polls, even a series of sabotage attacks in Iraq that disrupted the country's northern export pipeline failed to lift prices.

"The news of the Iraqi pipeline is obviously bullish ... but the prospect of a Kerry win is coming into the market now," said broker Paul Goodhew at ABN Amro.

more...

[54anickel]

33. Closing time (I've never seen the closing blather posted this quickly!)

Guess they were in a hurry to get some distance from originally quoting Drudge! :evilgrin:

Dow 10,035.73 -18.66 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,984.79 +4.92 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,130.58 +0.07 (+0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.075% -0.015
30-yr Bond 4.838% -0.009
NYSE Volume 1,665,587,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,841,476,000

4:00PM: It was all about the election in today's trading...the stock market opened marginally higher, purportedly on hopes that the election would produce a clear winner, and that the market could be set up for a year-end rally...the indices moved sharply higher mid-morning and stayed that way until late afternoon...at that point, a web site reported that (leaked and unconfirmed) exit polls showed Kerry slightly ahead in Florida and Ohio...the market tanked almost immediately...that same web site later reported that the sample was not properly weighted...
in any case, the market was clearly reacting to rumors about the outcome of the election, and not to earnings reports or other fundamentals...therefore, it is simply a matter now of waiting to see the election returns tonight and how the market reacts tomorrow...virtually everyone agrees that the worst possible outcome for stocks is an inconclusive result...volume was heavy as there was a fair amount of speculative action...oil was down another 51 cents to $49.62 a barrel, and bonds were up marginally...

3:30PM : Market is reacting to various rumors as to how election results are coming in...that makes it volatile, and we would caution against placing too much emphasis on any early returns, much less on early exit polls...NYSE Adv/Dec 1884/1406, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1583/1479

2:55PM : Market takes a quick dive...nervousness over possible election outcomes emerges...NYSE Adv/Dec 2191/1079, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1891/1171

2:30PM : Indices retain slightly bullish bias, as volume slows a bit...airline sector is up strongly today...oil is down just 15 cents, but continuing its slide...computer peripherals are also very strong, while commodity stocks are weak...StemCells Inc (STEM 4.22 -0.06) is very active today as an election play, based partly on propositions...Merck (MRK 27.04 -1.24) is NYSE most active as its debt was put on credit watch by S&P...NYSE Adv/Dec 2184/1045, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1853/1195

2:00PM : The indices have leveled off over the past three hours, as election watch continues...there are earnings reports after the close today, a few economic releases tomorrow, and same store sales data tomorrow and Thursday, but all pales relative to election results...Nasdaq showing good resistance at 2,000...SOX semiconductor index now up 0.8%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2213/1008, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1859/1170

1:30PM : Market is settling into a holding pattern with slight upward bias...Nasdaq continues to hold just above 2,000...commodity stocks are the weakest today, as gold, oil, metals, and aluminum are on the weak sector list, while there are a number of strong sectors including financials in general and insurance in particular...NYSE Adv/Dec 2210/991, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1873/1100

1:05PM : Market holds on to gains as oil remains in the red...Nasdaq just barely holding above 2,000...volume is running average to even a bit on the strong side...NYSE Adv/Dec 2190/985, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1879/1077

12:30PM : Market maintains its positive disposition on fairly broad-based participation from both a market-cap and industry standpoint... In that regard, big-cap technology shares appear to be the main pocket of strength as evidenced by the 1.20% gain in the Nasdaq 100, which places it ahead of all other major indices today... Separately, the Nasdaq Composite is just off its best levels of the session, but with today's advance, has ventured back above the 2,000 mark for the first time since July... NYSE Adv/Dec 2160/975, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1897/1006

12:00PM : The stock market is on election watch...and seems to be comfortable with the likely outcome...the markets opened slightly higher and have firmed significantly since, with no serious selling pressures emerging...there is talk that what the market really wants is simply a clear winner, and that a year-end rally may then be possible...there was not much corporate news, but National Semiconductor (NSM 16.12 -0.57) did warn that sales were slower than expected...the SOX semiconductor index opened lower, but it is even now up almost 1%...

Clorox, Emerson, and Amerisource Bergen all had earnings that beat expectations...there were no economic reports today...oil is now down 15 cents, continuing the recent slide as some of the speculative aspect has been pushed out...bonds are modestly lower...volume is moderate...NYSE Adv/Dec 2109/973, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1840/1000


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1751 (50%) 1507 (46%)
Declines 1562 (45%) 1599 (49%)
Unchanged 147 (4%) 152 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 764 (49%) 1139 (63%)
Down Vol* 763 (48%) 619 (34%)
Unch. Vol* 31 (1%) 22 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 254 129
New Lo's 14 33


Have a great evening everyone! I'm sure we'll see each other out and about elsewhere on DU tonight. :hi:

:party: :toast: :grouphug: :beer: :smoke: