Kerry Leads In Four Pivitol States - Zogby (!!!)

[Hornito]

Kerry Leads in Four Pivotal States, Bush Ahead in Two, Zogby Survey Says

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Senator John Kerry leads President George W. Bush in four of 10 states that both campaigns agree may tip today's election and Bush is ahead in two, Reuters/Zogby polls show. The candidates are tied in the other four.

Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator, leads in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, which together have 44 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. Bush leads in Nevada and Ohio, which have 25 electoral votes.

The candidates are statistically even in Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, which together have 62 electoral votes. Zogby surveyed about 600 likely voters in each of the 10 states Oct. 29 to Nov. 1. The state polls each have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Nationally, the candidates were statistically even, with Bush backed by 48 percent to Kerry's 47 percent, in a Zogby poll of 1,208 likely voters Oct. 29-31 released yesterday. This poll's margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.

More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/politics.html

[Moderator]

1. Hornito

Please be careful how you word the subject of your post. People are going to think you're talking about the Election, and not the Zogby poll.

Please edit the subject to include (Zogby) somewhere in it. Thanks.

[Hornito]

3. Done. Sorry.

n/t

[Hornito]

2. I predict that Kerry will take Nevada. Because of the nature of

the "24 Hour" lifestyle there, many working people (read: Dems) won't vote until later. The Repugs always vote early there. I have faith in my native state!!

[NVMojo]

17. I hope you are right!

I couldn't believe how many Kerry signs I saw in Reno on Saturday! It was uplifting!!!

Just edited to add this, Hornito, if you are a Nevadan, DU this poll!!

Bush is ahead!

http://www.rgj.com/

[Change has come]

20. Carson City here

Tons of Kerry signs and vandalized * signs....RGJ poll now has Kerry up by 1 (170-169). Good Luck to us all!

[loyalsister]

25. WOW!

That's a pretty conservative part of NV. Sounds very encouraging!

[MADem]

29. I just checked that poll, JK is slightly ahead

President Bush 44.56 % (262)
Senator Kerry 51.70 % (304)
Ralph Nader 0.34 % (2)
Another candidate 1.87 % (11)
I didn't vote 1.53 % (9)

[BillZBubb]

4. This is not good news--but then it is Zogby.

Kerry MUST win either Florida or Ohio, along with Pennsylvania.
If he doesn't we get four more years of the Chimperor.

With a MOE of 4.1% these state results are pretty meaningless.

[TheWraith]

21. Not neccessarily.

Kerry can win without Ohio or Florida. He just needs NH and CO, or CO and NV. Of course, I think we're definitely going to win OH, and possibly FL, but it breaks down that to have a real shot at winning, the Republicans have to take all of the big three: OH, FL, and MO. We don't need to take any of them.

[MISSDem]

24. If Kerry doesn't win Ohio or Florida he has to "run the table".

Slate has the electoral votes dead even at 269.

[WLKjr]

5. Kerry will take Ohio

people are pissed here, and that is why.

[cubsfan forever]

18. Thanks for the word of encouragement!

So, where are you in Ohio? Are the lines real long? What about the rethugs at the polling places? Any information you could provide would be much appreciated :-)

Professor 2

[Claire Beth]

23. I sure hope so! Got my fingers crossed.

[GinaMaria]

30. Just called 125+ people in Toledo

to remind them to vote. There's a chicago group calling Toledo voters. Out of 22K potential swing voters there's 7200 left to call. GOTV is going strong. Ohio is still tight and we need every vote we can get. Volunteer to phone bank today even if it's only for an hour.

[MADem]

31. People who are HAPPY

...with the status quo will have less patience with the crappy weather--they'll figure, oh well, he's the incumbent, I'm not ruining my new suede shoes for this. It is raining and snowing in a lot of parts of the country. PISSED OFF people, however, will stand in the rain and snow, and make the effort to change the status quo.

I'll be interested in seeing the effects of the weather on this election! I think it could help us.

[goforit]

39. Just make sure Bush doesn't steal it!!!!

[Almost_there]

6. At this point, polls are meaningless.

With the long lines, it actually looks like people are voting this year. I am not even THINKING that high turnout supports us, only because this is such a unique election. Polls are meaningless, Zogby may have gotten it right in 2000, but, he's gotten it wrong before too. So, that said, the only poll I will pay attention to is a certified result. The polls are all over the place, and by just choosing one poll, you're doing nothing more than the repubs who spew that this will be a Bush landslide. Am I confident Kerry will win? No, do I think it will be a landslide either way? No. But, what I think doesn't matter, its what the final numbers are.

~Almost

[kwolf68]

7. Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin

Were all Gore states in 2000. I don't have a good feeling. If we can't win those.

[RevCheesehead]

8. Does this give you hope?

[prolesunited]

12. How about this?

http://homepage.mac.com/prolesunited/iMovieTheater95.html

Kerry is going to take Ohio.

[SnowGoose]

9. Don't know about the others but...

You can take Michigan to the bank. I go back and forth between east and west, and I'm telling you Michigan is blue.

[bagnana]

14. what are you talking about

this is a poll. Not an election result.

[bif]

27. Michigan is in the bag for Kerry!

No doubt about it.

[WCGreen]

10. Here are the numbers without the Bloomberg Bias..

(All news has a bias, some more than others)

http://www.nowchannel.com/tracking/#z

Scroll down to look at the trends and the final results......

[Drifter]

11. I say Kerry takes EVERY state ...

that AWOL does not lead by more than 5% in the polls.

The ones they say are close, won't be. The ones they think are safe, won't be.

Cheers
Drifter

[Joylaughter]

13. Yep

Kerry with 300 + EV

[sr_pacifica]

33. Kerry will take: Ohio, PA, Mich, Minn, and....Florida!

Mark my word.

[geek tragedy]

15. Horrible, horrible news if true.

Kerry loses the EV based on these results.

Fortunately, Zogby sucks ass when it comes to state polls.

[Skidmore]

16. All the loyalty oaths, arrests, harrassment, free speech zones,

and bullyboy tactics don't make a bit of difference when you are alone with your conscience and a ballot in that booth.

[snag]

19. Final Harris Polls: Too Close to Call but Kerry Makes Modest Gains

"The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods of polling.. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory."

See http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=515

Crossing fingers ...

[cubsfan forever]

22. Welcome to DU! n/t

Professor 2

[nodehopper]

26. pleasepleasepleaseplease

[nodehopper]

28. according to Russian news, lenta.ru Kerry leads in OH and FL eom

[disneyboy]

32. Well then

I trust the international press than HERE, but still that IS Russia (ie Putin).

[nodehopper]

37. this is lenta.ru, it's more independent than most Russian press

they usually report things fairly well

[JPace]

34. This site gives states and times one should follow

to see who is winning.
http://tinyurl.com/53yre

[jwirr]

35. Voter Turnout in Northern Minnesota

is heavy which usually is good news for Democrats.

[loudsue]

36. Kerry could prolly take Texas, too, if it weren't for THIS!!!

In Travis County, when someone votes straight Dem ticket, and then Kerry for Pres, when they hit "enter", the Pres. vote changes to bush/cheney!!! (Black Boxes doing their thing...no paper trail!)

Look at the link in the Voting Problems forum....REALLY pisses me off!!

:kick::kick::kick:

[CHICKEN CAPITOL USA]

38. whatever happened to EXIT polls? anybody know--?

they are usually accurate because people have very little reason to not tell the truth about who they voted for.

Q:
ARE THERE ANY EXIT POLLS this election?

and if not WHY not?

And does this have anything to do with DEIBOLD's electronic results and making sure they match?