STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 4 November

[ozymandius]

Thursday November 4, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 328 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 17 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1078
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 3, 2004

Dow... 10,137.05 +101.32 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq... 2,004.33 +19.54 (+0.98%)
S&P 500... 1,143.20 +12.66 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.07% -0.01 (-0.12%)
Gold future... 425.40 +4.80 (+1.13%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[fishnfla]

1. So Wall Street Loves the Bush huh?

and I mean huh?

Enron
Accounting scandals
record deficits
record oil costs (with the titanic on the way!)
stagnant economy, unemployment

i'm staying out

[54anickel]

4. There could be some big short term gains - until the honeymoon is

over or the buck falls off the cliff. I doubt there will be any forewarning so yes, the risks and stakes are extremely high right now.

I think there are some big reports due out on top of today's initial UE claims for the week. They may be too excited and preoccupied with the jubilation to properly fudge the numbers - we'll have to wait and see.

[54anickel]

32. Morning in America?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

Anyone looking at a chart of the S&P 500 might think it was morning in America again. From a hidden-pivot standpoint, yesterday's rally was the most promising we've seen in nearly 18 months. That was the last time the cash S&P index managed to surpass two prior peaks to create a bullish "impulse leg" on the weekly chart. The current rally isn't quite there yet, but it won't take much of a move from here.

Meanwhile, the chart shows why the across-the-board strength we saw on Wednesday is not likely to sputter out in a few days. As you can see, the rally peaked just above two prior highs on the weekly chart. These highs are not so daunting as the ones exceeded by the powerfully bullish impulse wave unleashed in the spring of 2003, but the fact that the lesser highs were exceeded at all strongly implies that the next significant pullback, so long as it doesn't exceed August's 1060.72 bottom, will be prelude to yet another upthrust.

If that one can get past early 2002's formidable Twin Peaks, it could conceivably end the bear market begun in March 2000, or at the very least, delay a possible day of reckoning for bulls by a minimum three to four months. And if that rally should surpass the 1315.93 peak recorded in May of 2001, the long-term-bear argument would collapse. One important caveat: The Dow Industrials would need to rally 350 points from current levels to confirm the S&P, so it's not yet time to bet the ranch on the return of the bull.

***

Back to My Specialty

My prediction that the presidential tally would be 51-48 was pretty darned close -- except that it had Kerry as the winner. One lurker suggested that I stick with my stock charts, and I may even heed his advice -- heed it, that is, until 2007, when Hillary will be around to tempt the odds. Meanwhile, who knew that the ten million new voters would swarmed the polls would go 3-1 for the Republican?

[54anickel]

12. Investors Exhale

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

With earnings season and the elections over, investors breathed a sigh of relief. The Bush victory is perceived bullish for stocks and third quarter earnings were higher than expected. Over the past few weeks we have concentrated on earnings and discussed companies comments on the current strength of the economy. With earnings season winding down, the strength of the manufacturing sector. Recent economic data has also shown that the economy remains strong.

After trending down throughout most of the third quarter, it appears that third quarter earnings growth will be higher than estimated at the beginning of the quarter. As of last Friday (October 29), 392 companies of the S&P 500 had reported third quarter earnings. The blended earnings growth rate (using actual results for those that have reported and analysts’ estimates for those yet to report) was 16.4%, 150 basis points higher than at the beginning of the quarter and 260 basis points higher than at the beginning of October. Several sectors outperformed initial estimates including consumer discretionary (23% now v. 21% at Oct. 1), energy (56% v. 34%), industrials (20% v. 15%), materials (84% v. 70%), and technology (38% v. 34%). While earnings for the third quarter were better than expected, it is not driving fourth quarter estimates up. Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter actually dropped since the beginning of the month. Earnings during the fourth quarter are expected to increase by 15.2% compared to 15.5% at the beginning of the month. Focusing on the top-line estimate for the S&P 500 misses the fact that earnings growth for several sectors has been dramatically reduced. We saw this happen during the third quarter as well. Most notably, earnings growth for consumer discretionary companies has dropped from 15% to 10% during October, health care from 13% to 9%, financial from 13% to 11%. Offsetting these lowered estimates are increases in energy (from 39% to 55%), telecom (-7% to +3), and utilities (3% to 8%).

The latest manufacturing surveys showed a mixed picture. The Chicago purchasing manager survey jumped 7.2 points to 68.5. This not only was almost ten points higher than economists’ estimates, but the highest level since 1988. The surge was due to a 20.8 point surge in the production component. This was the highest level since June 1950. New orders also increased significantly, it rose almost ten points to 79.4. This was the highest level of new orders since December 1983. While all the components remained over 50 signaling all the components were expanding, inventory was the biggest drag falling 12.9 points to 51.8.

snip>

American consumers are almost insatiable when it comes to spending. Personal income increased only 0.2% in September, but spending jumped 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, spending jumped 5.9%, while income advanced by only 4.6%. It does not take a math professor, to figure out that the savings rate would have declined. In fact, in September the savings rate dipped to 0.2%, the second lowest on record. It dropped to -0.2% in October 2002. This is one trend that is quickly running out of room to continue. During the recession that marked the 2000 – 2001 period there was never a decline in personal expenditures. It’s doubtful that during the next recession that will be the case. At that point, we will find out how overbuilt the retail sector is.

The other economic release this week will be the employment report on Friday. Both ISM surveys have been above 50 for several months and the employment component in the non-manufacturing survey increased 1.2 points to 55.8, which is the fourth highest level it has been since it was conceived in 1997. On the flip side, job cuts remained over 100,000 for the second consecutive month according the Challenger report, the first time since January – February 2003. The placement firm started tracking hiring announcements in May this year and except for a spike in August has generally declined every month. Hiring announcements totaled 11,425 in October, down from 16,166 in September.

more...

[54anickel]

2. Morning Ozy and all. Scary toon there today.

I am feeling a bit better today after getting some sleep. Not as weepy, just very pissed off, which I think is a good thing! I will attempt to use that energy constructively today. LTTE and chasing dust bunnies around the house! No homework - I've decided to drop out, for a while anyway.

What's with the future charts - they seem stuck! Anyway I just checked tha AM market call - shows the DOW up 117.00! S&P and NAS are down just a bit -1.50 and -4.00 respectively.

See gold climbing steadily again this morning, then again the US$ is in the toilet again. Doesn't look like the BoJ has stepped up to the plate yet.

[ozymandius]

13. Good morning 54anickel, everyone.

I am sorry that you are dropping out.

Rain, beautiful cleansing rain, is falling. It helps me see a little clearer what I really want to do in helping us reverse our fortunes in the next election cycle.

We have to run out for awhile.

I'll see you all soon.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

15. I have mixed feelings on it. It was an economic decision more than

anything else. We decided that now is not the time to be racking up a student loan debt (or any kind of debt for that matter). From the sudden jump in enrollment, I foresee a "glut" of graduates with a Business Management BA/BS all competing for a handful of jobs. The place seemed like a diploma mill and while I enjoy "life-long learning" it didn't seem to offer me enough bang for the mega-bucks.

Who knows, I may regret it down the road. I can always go back and pick up where I left off should the economy miraculously turn around.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Stock and Bond Relationships Without All the Noise
Contrarians are Most Effective when they are the Loneliest

The intermediate term chart of the Nasdaq and the Ten Year Treasury note price look relatively choppy with a bearish overtone of lower lows and lower highs, while the S&P 500 has exhibited similar behavior with less volatile fluctuations. Yet if you strip the loud noise from the charts, you can see some important trends developing which may provide insight into the future of these markets in relationship to each other. It is also possible to gain some insight into likely future performance of stocks and bonds. With the stock market rallying in what seems to be the most vertical “V” rally of 2004, is it time to get on the party hats and buy stocks for the long haul? This would not be a good idea because what we are seeing in the stock market is probably a gigantic head fake in my view. The longer this top takes to complete, the more important and devastating will be its ultimate end. I’ll present my case with both time/price and point-and-figure charts.

The chart below illustrates a long-term weekly chart of the 10-Year Treasury note. The indicator that is on top of the chart is the 10-year note price divided by the S&P 500 index, and there are also momentum indicators below the chart. As you can see, since spring of 2003, the 10-year note has followed a fairly regular pattern of lower lows and lower highs. When it has fallen (twice) it has fallen fast; when it has risen, it has risen slowly. The chart shows that the Treasury note sits just below the trendline that connects the lower highs. The Rule of Alternation suggests that the next drop will not be similar to the last drop; yet the Rule would have also suggested that the last 2 consecutive drops would not have been be similar, either. I suspect that the reason that the drops were similar were because the underlying factors causing them were also similar. Whatever the reason for the trendlines, they seem very much intact and suggest a bond market drop soon, at least from a classical technical analysis perspective. This potential is also suggested by the lower highs and lower lows shown in the momentum indicators, illustrated in the chart below.



-cut-

Internet Stocks

In order to glean some perspective and insight into the stock market’s short-term future, I would like to examine two stocks that most illustrate the market’s emotions – Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO). Although these are successful businesses, I think that it is safe to say that there is a giant disconnect between the company’s actual valuation and their valuation in the stock market. I think that for all practical purposes, you can consider their actual company valuation to be negligible in comparison to their stock market valuation. These stocks also trade manically as the average floating share of Google changes hands every 5-days. Because of the valuation disconnect and manic trading, the action of these stocks can be considered as a gauge of the stock market’s current optimism or pessimism level. The Internet leaders of 2000, Amazon and Yahoo peaked in advance of the entire Nasdaq market.

...more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Maeve]

5. In case folks missed it yesterday--

I just want to add my thanks for all the regular (and irregular!) members of the Stock Market Thread do. It was started at a time when the market was dropping like a rock (a nod to radfringe, who carried it thru for so long) and has continued as one of the great DU resources. In these dark days, it has been a beacon of normality. Special thanks to ozymandius, UpInArms and 54aNickel.
:grouphug::toast::yourock::toast::grouphug:

[54anickel]

6. Thanks Maeve! And thank you for stepping up to the mod plate. Truely

do miss you around here though. Thursday will always be Maeve Day!

[UpInArms]

8. Hey Maeve!

:yourock:

:grouphug:

Wish you were here with us more - and gosh, I feel anything but "normal".

:hi:

My hat is off to all the DUers that make this the best place to be (with special thanks to Ozy and 54anickel).

[ozymandius]

40. Thank you Maeve!

What a comfort and a blessing it is to have such wonderful friends here at the SMW. We miss you sorely. Your stellar work as a Mod (note your shadow self) is a comfort to us all.

:toast::yourock::toast:

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.44 Change -0.26 (-0.31%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100270/content.asp?menu=currencies&dia=4112004

The DX opened lower at 85.20 as the re-election of President George W. Bush looms emanate, along with the continuation of the ‘twin-deficits’ and weak Dollar policy. Despite a stronger than expected ISM non-business index, showing a rise to 59.8 vs. 56.7 in Sept., prices retraced to a morning Lo of 84.83, before bouncing to 84.99 as we enter the afternoon session. As Senator Kerry prepares to concede the victory to President Bush, the equity markets continue to rally on the fact that there will be no prolonged waiting period, as in 2000. A rebound in oil prices, took the wind out of the sales of the equity rally and sent the DX to a daily Lo of 84.67, before bouncing to a close of 84.76, down 81 tics. Traders sent a clear message of the ‘direction’ of the DX. The new Lo is ‘over-sold’ and needs positive stimulus to move higher. This could occur with release of the Non-farm payroll report on Friday or the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, Nov. 10th. As long as the ‘shorts’ haven’t covered, we could see more downside. A lower open may find Support at 84.42 and 84.07, while an open above 85.01 should find Resistance at 85.36 and 85.95.

...more...

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_062.html

Dollar Yen (USDJPY) - More Losses Or A Reversal?

Although recent price action has hardly been bullish, we may be due for a USDJPY rally in the near future. In the past month the pair exhibited a decidedly bearish bias collapsing over 500 points from the 111 handle at the beginning of October to a low of 105.75 by the end of the month. This furious move lower was not caused by strong yen fundamentals, but rather by geo-political and economic speculation, suggesting that the decline may be overdone.


The sell off in USDJPY thus far has been a result of:

»Dollar bearishness: The dollar has plummeted over the past 2 weeks for a number of reasons:

1) Large and Growing Current Account Deficit - According to the latest TIC data, there was barely enough influx of foreign capital to meet the trade imbalance. In fact, the deficit in the month of August was -$54 billion while total purchases of US securities contracted to $58.96 billion from $63.1 billion the month prior. Therefore the capital account surplus in August was barely large enough to cover the growing trade deficit. The details of the report were even worse. Foreigners were net sellers of US stocks, after increasing holdings in both June and July. Foreign holdings of US treasuries were also down by 34% while Japanese demand and overall central bank holdings rebounded significantly. This change in composition means that US capital account surplus is being funded by Central Bank demand rather that private foreign investment. Should this trend persist, it could be a troubling development because US funding will rely on the discretion of foreign monetary authorities rather than on the desire of private foreign capital to invest in US assets. Such an arrangement cannot be sustainable over the long term. Recently, many public (Fed officials) and private (Jim Rogers, ex-partner of George Soros) experts raised concerns about the sustainability of funding the US current account deficit. With the latest TIC data, the possibility of a funding crunch becomes an increasing concern that will press heavily on the dollar.

2) Fed Officials Talking Down The Dollar - Whether they are doing this intentionally or not, the recent comments from Fed officials indicate that they have no clear objection to dollar's slide. Yellen and McTeer were the latest to weigh in, with Yellen saying that "if the dollar's value remains steady, it will widen the US current account deficit even more" and that "any turnaround in the current account deficit has to involve the dollar." McTeer said that, "over time, there's only one direction for the dollar to go, and that's lower." The fact that the Fed (or at least a few Fed Presidents) is vocally favoring a weaker dollar indicates that whatever administration that follows the current one would be able to move to a weak dollar policy or at least exhibit less commitment towards a strong dollar.

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Reports for the day:

Nov 04 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 10/30
report -
briefing.com anticipates 335K
market anticipates 340K
last report 350K
revised -

Nov 04 8:30 AM
Productivity-Prel Q3
report -
briefing.com anticipates 1.5%
market anticipates 1.7%
last report 2.5%
revised -

Unemployment claims numbers are in http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={34E16B2B-D5A0-454F-970E-28BE6250CBC1}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 19,000 to 332,000

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 19,000 to 332,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The decline was larger than expected. Economists were expecting a drop in initial claims to about 340,000. The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 1,500 to 342,000 in the week ending Oct. 30. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks fell by 20,000 to 2.80 million in the week ending Oct. 23.

[UpInArms]

9. U.S. Q3 productivity up 1.9% vs 1.5% expected

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38295.3545346991-825699014&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Productivity of the U.S. non-farm business sector rose at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Labor Department estimated Thursday. Wall Street economists were forecasting a gain of 1.5 percent. Productivity rose a revised 3.9 percent in the second quarter, up sharply from the 2.5 percent rate previously estimated.

Oopsie!

[54anickel]

10. Ain't outsourcing and off-shoring just grand!

[54anickel]

14. Dollar Falls to 9-Month Low; Bush Win May Lead to Wider Deficit

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a3Va1ygkJBLY&refer=japan

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to near a nine-month low against the euro on speculation George W. Bush's re-election with a bigger Republican majority in Congress may spur further record budget deficits as foreign demand for U.S. debt wanes.

Bush proposes making permanent the tax cuts enacted in his first term. That may widen the budget gap by $1.5 trillion from $2.3 trillion in the next decade, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Jan Hatzius in New York. The dollar has fallen 2.6 percent versus the euro since government data on Oct. 18 showed net foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets fell in August.

``The election has really emboldened the dollar bears,'' said Steve Pearson, head of currency strategy at HBOS Plc in London. With an enlarged Republican majority in Congress, ``it's difficult to see where pressure can be brought to bear on the president to narrow the budget deficit.''

snip>

`Decisive Action'

``We are ready to take decisive action if the currency markets move in a rapid manner,'' said Hosokawa at a press conference in Tokyo. Japan hasn't sold yen to stem advances in its currency since March, according to ministry figures.

snip>

``The dollar has weakened in the past several weeks partly on uncertainty about the currency policy John Kerry might adopt,'' Kuroda said. ``Those concerns are gone,'' and the dollar may gain to about 110 yen, he said. Kuroda said the U.S. will probably stick to the policy of a strong dollar. :smoke:

Declines in the dollar may be limited on expectations the pace of U.S. job growth accelerated in October. Employers probably added 175,000 workers, up from 96,000 in September, based on the median of 76 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. The report will be released tomorrow.

more...

[54anickel]

23. The Dollar's Long-Term Direction: Down

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/business/04place.html?pagewanted=print&position=

snip>

"There is a certain inevitability to the decline,'' said Alan Blinder, an economist at Princeton University who served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and was an adviser to President Bill Clinton. "I think the Treasury understands this. It would be nice if they would say so."

snip>

An influential group of economists has argued that there is no reason that this imbalance cannot go on relatively undisturbed - if not forever, at least for a very long time. But most mainstream economists argue that, at a minimum, the unraveling of this web would send the dollar lower and squeeze American consumption.
:eyes:

snip>

The situation, some suggested, is analogous to the problems faced by Ronald Reagan early in his second term, when the United States, despite robust growth, suffered from an expensive dollar, weak exports and big deficits.

In 1986, the administration negotiated the Plaza Agreement with six other major industrial powers, helping pave the way to a manageable, if sometimes rocky, 40 percent decline in the value of the dollar.

"We have to do something similar to get the value of the dollar down and not wait for a market adjustment which could be more damaging to the economy," said Robert E. Scott, of the liberal Economic Policy Institute in Washington.

The strategy worked for Mr. Reagan because he also pushed through a couple of tax increases that helped narrow the budget gap. Economists are not very confident, however, that a second Bush administration would be prepared to do something similar.

That could leave the economy vulnerable to a more painful adjustment, with the dollar falling rapidly and interest rates rising fast. The result would almost certainly lead to a recession and perhaps a collapse in the real estate market.

"There is a real possibility,'' Catherine Mann, an economist at the Institute for International Economics, wrote in a study earlier this year, "that the entanglements created by this co-dependency cannot be undone by anything short of a global economic crisis."

much more...

[54anickel]

30. Deficit's growth looms as threat (had to capture this quote...)

http://www.thesunlink.com/bsun/bu_business/article/0%2C2403%2CBSUN_19060_3300022%2C00.html

snip>

U.S. economists have been wrestling with the conflicting forces, with some concluding that the United States economy can withstand the current account balance's unprecedented growth.

But most agree that a tipping point is not far off.

That will come when foreign investment in the United States slackens, and is diverted instead to stronger currencies like the euro, whose value relative to the dollar has risen 40 percent.

The risk is a sudden shift in investor preference. "A more mature China central bank could decide to diversify," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com.

"Hopefully, they would discover the stock market."
Until now, China and Japanese central banks have been loyal and significant foreign investors in U.S. government securities. Their continued willingness to buy Treasury notes and bonds has helped keep interest rates down despite the ongoing federal budget deficits — now $415 billion.

But economists fret that past loyalties could change.

Under that scenario, a sell-off of U.S. securities could trigger a sharp decline in the value of the dollar, which in turn would lead to inflation because imported goods became more expensive. It would also drive up interest rates at a time of record household debt in the United States.

[54anickel]

11. U.S. stocks to open lower on mixed Oct. retailer sales

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041104/d46ea154cb5bb4d774e05cf0972c9928_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock futures are pointing to a moderately lower open Thursday as a spotty October sales performance from retailers and mixed data turned the focus away from President Bush's victory back to the economy.

snip>

President Bush's victory fueled a breakout from both short and long-term trading patterns, according to Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.

"While we could see the markets consolidate from this overbought condition, we would not expect to see too much weakness."

snip>

Investors will be poring over this morning's same-store sales to get a sense of current consumer spending habits.

Wal-Mart set a fairly positive tone for the retail sector after it said its fiscal third quarter earnings would be at the high-end of its previously forecasted range of 52 cents to 54 cents a share.

The world's largest retailer meanwhile reported an 2.8 percent rise in October same-store sales, amid a 2.4 percent increase at its Wal-Mart stores, and 5 percent growth at Sam's Club stores. Wal-Mart shares ended up 0.6 percent at $54.58 in Wednesday trading.

Target, (NYSE:TGT - News) ,JC Penney (NYSE:JCP - News) , Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN - News) , Federated Department Stores (NYSE:FD - News) and The Talbots (NYSE:TLB - News) were some of the other retailers which experienced a solid month of October.

snip>

"The election is out of the way, which clears that uncertainty (over the U.S. dollar policy)," said Gary Noone, a forex analyst at Informa Global Markets. The Bush administration "seems fairly relaxed" about the weaker dollar as it bolsters the U.S. economy, he said.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. 10:43 numbers and blather

Dow 10,148.04 +10.99 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,995.38 -8.95 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,144.21 +1.01 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.056% -0.014

NYSE Volume 377,659,000
Nasdaq Volume 469,636,000

10:30AM: Pfizer (PFE 28.25 -1.20) has taken a dive on an article in a Canadian newspaper linking Celebrex to deaths in Canada...that has taken the indices lower, although Pfizer bounced off its lows...the Nasdaq has continued to slide this morning as the SOX semiconductor index is now down 1.3%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1571/1210, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 889/1629

10:00AM: Steady trade continues...there is a fair amount of action amongst retail stocks this morning following the release of October same store sales...Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 40.76 +1.59) had a very good report with an 11% gain, and Gap Inc. (GPS 21.12 +0.88) is active after beating expectations...President Bush has scheduled a new conference for around 11:00 ET to discuss coming agenda...October employment release due tomorrow morning...NYSE Adv/Dec 1248/1099, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 849/1380

I am leaving the house and the computer for the day - have to get a change of scenery going.

Will check back when I return - but am hoping that others will fill in the gaps for all of us.

last dollar check:

Last trade 84.47 Change -0.23 (-0.27%)

Settle 84.70 Settle Time 23:34

Open 84.68 Previous Close 84.70

High 84.88 Low 84.31

Last tick: 2004-11-04 10:15:10 ET
30-min delayed quote.

:hi:

[54anickel]

17. Heh, suppose we should be posting those numbers occasionally, huh?

Just having a hard time concentrating yet and have been enthralled with many of the articles in LBN to add to my collection.

I'll try to pay closer attention to the "greed feed". B-)

[54anickel]

18. 11:40 pre-lunch check in Hmm, guess I missed Shrub at 11:00

Dow 10,190.22 +53.17 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,006.02 +1.69 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,149.61 +6.41 (+0.56%)
10-yr Bond 4.045% -0.025
30-yr Bond 4.798% -0.028
NYSE Volume 612,467,000
Nasdaq Volume 729,142,000

11:00AM : Narrow trading ranges early on...Nasdaq is relatively weakest but bounces off its lows...December crude oil is now down 3 cents...the 10-year note is up 4/32 to yield 4.06% ahead of the employment release tomorrow and the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, at which the Fed is expected to raise rates another 1/4%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1610/1308, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 946/1729

10:30AM : Pfizer (PFE 28.25 -1.20) has taken a dive on an article in a Canadian newspaper linking Celebrex to deaths in Canada...that has taken the indices lower, although Pfizer bounced off its lows...the Nasdaq has continued to slide this morning as the SOX semiconductor index is now down 1.3%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1571/1210, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 889/1629

10:00AM : Steady trade continues...there is a fair amount of action amongst retail stocks this morning following the release of October same store sales...Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 40.76 +1.59) had a very good report with an 11% gain, and Gap Inc. (GPS 21.12 +0.88) is active after beating expectations...President Bush has scheduled a new conference for around 11:00 ET to discuss coming agenda...October employment release due tomorrow morning...NYSE Adv/Dec 1248/1099, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 849/1380

9:40AM : Market opens mixed, as indicated by pre-open futures trade...Qualcomm (QCOM 37.67 -1.20) is down after warning for next quarter, and the SOX semiconductor index is down 1% after Banc of America Securities downgraded several chip equipment makers...oil is down 10 cents...

9:17AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Should be a fairly uneventful start for the cash market as futures trading connotes a lack of conviction on the part of buyers and sellers... Look for the tech sector and the Nasdaq to lag behind in early action as Qualcomm's disappointing guidance serves as a catalyst to take some money off the table in QCOM and other issues; also Banc of America Securities is out with downgrades of AMAT, KLAC, and LRCX that should pressure the chip equipment space

8:54AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5.

8:34AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Futures market remains mixed following the initial claims (332K vs 340K consensus) and Q3 Productivity (1.9% vs 1.5% consensus) reports... Both came in better than expected, but nonetheless, with yesterday's sharp gains and the specter of the October employment report tomorrow, the data haven't provided much of a buying or selling catalyst

8:09AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Futures trade pointing to a relatively mixed start for the cash market... Neutral disposition follows on the heels of yetserday's broad-based rally, a lackluster showing from foreign indices, and a batch of same-store sales results from retailers that is generally mixed relative to consensus estimates


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1885 (58%) 1143 (38%)
Declines 1144 (35%) 1655 (56%)
Unchanged 213 (6%) 148 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 321 (60%) 275 (41%)
Down Vol* 195 (36%) 383 (57%)
Unch. Vol* 13 (2%) 8 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 210 78
New Lo's 6 38

[54anickel]

19. Bush Hints at More Aggressive Approach to Economy

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-na-owner4nov04,1,3809179.story?coll=la-headlines-business

WASHINGTON — President Bush is poised to pursue an aggressive "ownership society" agenda of Social Security privatization, new tax breaks for savings and investment, and additional incentives for home- ownership as cornerstones of his second-term economic initiatives.

snip>

"New legislation has become almost mandatory in Washington," said C. Eugene Steuerle, a senior Treasury official in the Reagan administration. "The president is no longer just the nation's administrator in chief; he's the policymaker in chief."

Bush has talked about recasting Social Security to permit workers to divert a portion of their payroll taxes into private retirement accounts since first appearing on the national stage in the late 1990s. But he has shied away from advancing a specific proposal in part because of the daunting financial issues involved in changing the giant retirement security system. Also, almost any privatization plan is likely to produce howls of protest among Democrats.

snip>

Two years ago, he included key elements of the agenda in his budget when he proposed streamlining the hodgepodge of tax incentives for savings into two tax break-heavy arrangements — a retirement savings account, or RSA, and a lifetime savings account, or LSA. But then he let the proposals die on Capitol Hill in favor of cutting the tax on corporate dividends.

snip>

All of this is about to change, according to conservative activists close to the administration.

"Bush will want to do one big thing: Social Security reform. That's the big bang," predicted Grover Norquist, president of the conservative Americans for Tax Reform.

more...

[RawMaterials]

20. once the "ownership society" is in place and all that

money is in the market there going to pull the plug on the market and the economy.

[Neshanic]

21. Martha, where's the Bible, I need to eat it.

"Bush will want to do one big thing: Social Security reform. That's the big bang,"

[54anickel]

22. Five key economic challenges for Bush (Keeping with the theme)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/03/news/economy/election_bush/index.htm

snip>
Energy prices

Energy prices have soared in Bush's first term. The price of oil has climbed from around $26 a barrel before he took office in January 2001 to around $50 now.

snip>

To confront that threat, Bush, a former Texas oil man, has focused on increasing our domestic supplies of oil. He has called for opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, which he says could provide up to 1 million barrels of oil a day for nearly 20 years. He also favors building a natural gas pipeline from Alaska to the 48 contiguous states and has suggested incentives for natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Bush has resisted calls for the administration to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease prices, saying the reserve should be used only in emergencies.

In addition, Bush has advocated increased use of nuclear power and further development of so-called clean coal technologies.

The deficit

Bush, who did not veto one spending bill in his first term, campaigned on a pledge to cut the deficit in half over the next five years by growing the economy and limiting discretionary spending. That may not be easy.

snip>

In fact, the anti-deficit Concord Coalition calculates that Bush's proposals would worsen the ten-year shortfall by $1.33 trillion.

"Throughout his presidency, George W. Bush has refused to calibrate his drive for lower taxes with his support for expensive initiatives such as the global war on terrorism and a major expansion of Medicare," the group concludes. "There is no reason to expect anything different in a second term."

much more....

[54anickel]

25. Deficits and Tax System Changes in Bush's Second-Term Economy

Five TR-R-R-R-R-R-R-ILLION Buckaroonies!!! Gee, it sounds so sweet when you roll the Rs! :puke:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/business/04econ.html

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 - Even as President Bush was celebrating his election victory on Wednesday, his Treasury Department provided an ominous reminder about the economic challenges ahead.

After four years of rapidly rising budget deficits, the Treasury announced on Wednesday morning that the government will borrow $147 billion in the first three months of 2005 - a new quarterly record, but one that is likely to be eclipsed before that year is out.

Empowered by his own victory and stronger Republican majorities in Congress, Mr. Bush has pledged to push an economic agenda that could be more ambitious than the $1.9 trillion worth of tax cuts over 10 years that he signed in his first term.

The new economic agenda will focus on two big goals. One is expected to aim for a fundamental overhaul of the income tax, very likely in the direction of a system that lessens even further the taxation of investment income; the other to push for a partial privatization of Social Security that could eventually reduce costs but require borrowing more than $2 trillion over the next two decades.

The challenge ahead can be seen in the fiscal decline that took place between Mr. Bush's first inauguration in 2001 and his second one on Jan. 20, 2005. Federal tax revenue was $100 billion lower this year than when Mr. Bush took office, but spending is $400 billion higher.

The ballooning budget deficits, which could total $5 trillion over the next 10 years if Mr. Bush succeeds in making his tax cuts permanent, could constrain the president's choices far more than they have in the first term.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Where's the MARS initiative? n/t

[ozymandius]

41. This is offensive on so many levels.

First, Social Security is not intended to be a money making operation. It is a Trust Fund. There is a difference. Today's SS recipients are paid by tpday's workers through FICA. To disrupt the flow of money into Social Security would disenfranchise today's recipients.

Second: Who really stands to gain from this huge influx of money? The managers and corporate captains - that's who. Stock prices will jump sky high upon a huge flood of money into the market, artificially inflating the price of stocks to unreal levels. Ultimately, levels that cannot be sustained, thus continuously disenfranchising recipients now and later.

"New legislation has become almost mandatory in Washington" - This is a code phrase for "Get it done while they're still scratching their heads over the election."

In Washington - a proposal so extremely bold is usually met with this appropriate response: "Good luck!" (sarcasm)

[54anickel]

24. An Industry-by-Industry Look at the Implications of the Election

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/business/04intro.html

From Wall Street to Detroit, there were plenty of sighs of relief as it became clear that President Bush had won another term. As one auto executive said, "Bush has been a good president to work with."

But even as stocks rose on the news, the exuberant mood of business executives was tempered by worries about continuing high prices of oil, the nation's ballooning budget deficit and the increasing cost of health care. Military contractors, for example, expect that the Pentagon budget will flatten out, forcing the government to rein in spending for new weapons programs, as it needs to put more money into the war in Iraq.

And all employers - but particularly the auto industry, which is footing the bill for health benefits for thousands of retirees - are worried about the brisk rise in medical costs and whether the administration has a realistic plan for dealing with the problem.

The telecommunications and media industries expect the White House and their regulators to continue to step back and allow greater industry consolidation, even as regulators are faced with major decisions about the future of Internet and telephone services.

But the biggest smiles yesterday came from Wall Street executives, who were pleased with the tax cuts in the first Bush term and hope for more of the same from the second.



That page has this link at the end of the intro:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/business/04bizreact.html
looks lik a collage of bits and pieces from other stories


What May Lie Ahead for Business in America

AUTOS
Taxes and Health Costs Top Detroit's Wish List

DETROIT, Nov. 3 - Even though Michigan was one of the rare blue states between the coasts, many executives of the Detroit automakers were privately wary of Senator John Kerry because he was recently a co-sponsor of an ambitious Senate proposal to increase fuel economy standards substantially.

snip>

MILITARY
Investor Euphoria Could Be Short-Lived

Shares of military companies rose on news of the Bush victory yesterday, but the euphoria could be short-lived. While President Bush's re-election and the return of a Republican majority in Congress assure a robust approach to Pentagon spending, the growing budget deficit and the costs of the war in Iraq could begin to take their toll.

snip>

WALL STREET
For Corporations, Their Kind of Guy

For Wall Street firms, a second Bush term represents a lush dividend on the millions that their chief executives began raising for the president in the early days of his first term. Led by Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, executives on the Street embraced the supply-side policies of President Bush - underscored by sweeping cuts in capital gains and dividend taxes - that brought the most pro-Wall Street moves since Ronald Reagan began cutting taxes in 1981.

Expectations are rife that the president's economic platform will be even better for business in his second term as he pushes for such initiatives as private Social Security accounts and continued emphasis on lower taxes.

snip>

ENERGY
A Prospect for Oil Prices to Help Shape Policy


President Bush's victory comes at a time of near-record oil prices, and the issue could end up shaping his administration's energy policy over the next four years.

snip>

To try to offset this, analysts said, the administration is expected to endorse drilling for oil in part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and to take some steps to limit demand.

But squaring these goals with the president's calls to reduce American dependency on oil from the Middle East could prove a challenge, especially for an administration headed by two former oilmen.

snip>

HEALTH CARE
Mounting Costs and Tax Breaks

Too much to snippet from!
snip>

TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Bigger, Faster, and Less Regulated

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 - Significant technological advances are rapidly changing the telecommunications and media industries, and giving a bigger role to Washington policy makers in determining industry winners and losers.

lots more...

[54anickel]

27. U.S. stocks rally midday on retreat in oil

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041104/12b08fa2803eb63c5f7b6de20eb908b2_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks gained ground Thursday as a pullback in oil prices helped the market overcome a choppy start sparked by concern over the heath of the economy after a mixed October sales performance for retailers.

Conflicting reports on the condition of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat also held investors' attention.

snip>

Crude-oil futures moved sharply lower in midday trading on easing supply concerns as energy traders appeared to turn their attention to the Energy Department's reported 6.3 million-barrel climb in last week's U.S. crude inventories.

Crude for December delivery was last down $1.03 at $49.85 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Late morning stocks got a brief lift on reports suggesting Arafat had died in France, bolstering hopes among some investors, a new leader could broker a peace agreement with Israel.

"The market would probably interpret his passing as increasing the chance of peace in the Middle East," said Mark Bryan, senior vice-president at Brean Murray. :eyes:

[54anickel]

28. 1:05 - Come on in, the water's fine

Dow 10,237.12 +100.07 (+0.99%)
Nasdaq 2,013.24 +8.91 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,153.75 +10.55 (+0.92%)
10-yr Bond 4.065% -0.005
30-yr Bond 4.812% -0.014
NYSE Volume 901,476,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,002,920,000

1:00PM : The rally continues, with retail, insurance, gold, tobacco, and casinos leading the way...there are no major sector declines...even the DRG drug sector index, which has been hit by the drop in Pfizer (PFE 28.65 -0.80) is down less than 0.5%...advancers lead decliners by almost a 3-to-1 margin on the NYSE...oil is now down $1.23...NYSE Adv/Dec 2260/893, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1403

12:30PM : The market is rallying strongly as underlying bullish sentiment emerges...the catalyst right now is oil...the December crude futures contract is now down $1.18 to $49.70...the idea that a Bush win would somehow lead to higher oil prices is being countered by a continuing exit of the speculative interest in the futures market as supply concerns have dissipated...NYSE Adv/Dec 2059/1047, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1212/1671
Bwhahahaha, must of realized it looked sort of bad for his oil buddies to be celebrating with higher prices!

12:00PM : Stocks opened mixed and after remaining that way through much of the morning are now pushing higher...an earnings warnings from Qualcomm (QCOM 38.14 -1.73) and downgrades of several chip equipment makers by Banc of America Securities has led the Nasdaq to underperform...Pfizer (PFE 28.51 -0.94) has been hurt by a new article that suggested a link between some deaths in Canada and their pain killer drug...however, the market has shown resilience to these issues and is pushing slightly higher...

retail stocks have done well after the release of October same store sales, with some specialty lines aimed at teens doing particularly well...volume is active...oil prices are down 35 cents and helping a bit...the 10-year note is up 8/32 to yield 4.04% ahead of the October payroll report tomorrow...NYSE Adv/Dec 2028/1029, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1212/1618

11:35AM : Market shows continued resilience...focus is shifting to October payroll number tomorrow, with expectations of a 200,000 gain...that follows a 96,000 September increase...volume is fairly active today...StemCells (STEM 2.87 -0.27), which was considered a play on a Kerry victory, is down again and fifth on the Nasdaq active list...Gap (GPS 21.50 +1.26) is fifth on the NYSE actives list after a good October same sales store number..NYSE Adv/Dec 1746/1280, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1094/1673

[54anickel]

29. Gold price at 16-year high

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/63add62c-2e51-11d9-a86b-00000e2511c8.html

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday, breaking through 16-year highs as the dollar continued to weaken. Bullion was quoted at $432.50/$433.00 a troy ounce in afternoon trading.

Crude oil futures eased following the $1 rise in the previous session after President George W. Bush’s confirmed re-election victory overshadowed a rise in commercial crude inventories, and supply concerns were revived.

Traders said Mr Bush’s victory was likely to re-ignite fears about security of oil supplies in the Middle East and added that a Bush administration was likely to fill the US strategic petroleum reserve at current market prices.

[54anickel]

31. Out comes the funny-looking rubber chicken (Mogambo!)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty110404.html

snip>

And speaking of the dollar, according to an article in 11/1/04 issue of the Wall Street Journal entitled "Fed Ponders Oil Price and Dollar," the Federal Reserve thinks that "an abrupt run on the dollar and sudden jump in interest rates" is a concern to "policy makers around the world," because the American current-account gap is so wide, and getting wider, which means that we are pumping dollars by the $600-billion a year boatload out of the USA and into the hands of foreigners who probably do NOT have our best interests at heart, which I surmise by the lackluster response I get to my emails to them that plead "Dear Foreign Sir or Madam, May I please borrow some money?" and they respond, if they respond at all, with what I assume are rude colloquialisms (e.g. "Go glagny yourself, you blampherous glackney porgler.").

But ever the smiling optimists, "Though Fed officials believe such a crisis is unlikely," they "appear to broadly agree the dollar will have to fall to narrow the gap." Let me get this absolutely straight in my tiny little mind: A crisis is only "unlikely"? Unlikely? How in the hell did we get to a place (to which I cleverly allude by comically pointing to my watch and shouting "Right here and now, you freaking bozo!" and hitting you over the head with this funny-looking rubber chicken) where such a crisis is only "unlikely?"

snip>

But then we read "Officials stress that they aren't trying to influence the dollar, a job they leave to the Treasury. So I have taken this to mean that I can take my wife's car and drive it like a maniac around town, smashing into mailboxes and across flowerbeds, ramming it into parked cars and careening at those school-crossing guards with their stupid orange vests and their stupid little whistles going "Tweet tweet tweet!" like it was MY job to keep those little brats out of the street or something. And when my wife goes out in the morning, takes a look at her beat-up car and screams "What in the hell have you done to my car, you horrid little jerk?" I can smugly say "Hey! I am not trying to influence the value of the car! That is the Treasury's job. I mean, that's YOUR job!"

But is not only the foreigners who are morons about buying US government debt, as the corporate bond arena also blasted to new highs, driving yields to new lows. This may be partially explained by the banks gobbling up $13 billion in "Other Securities" last week, which is the catch-all category for things other than "U.S. Government Debt." Or it may be that Doug Noland's analysis is correct in that "with performance suffering, many bond mangers have unwound interest-rate hedges and, in the process, supported bond prices and systemic Liquidity."

more...

[54anickel]

33. What a Bush win will mean for America

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/comment/story/0%2C14259%2C1342535%2C00.html

Unlike presidents, supreme court justices are not hobbled by term limits and can stay on for decades. The president who appoints them is therefore presented with an opportunity to mould the powerful body according to his political tastes - with the caveat that such judges can often confound expectations.

We can expect big battles in Congress as Democrats seek to block Mr Bush from packing the court with conservative judges. The president has made it clear what kind of judges he wants in the court, holding up as models two of the court's most conservative members, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.

In the coming years, the supreme court is expected to consider some of the most divisive social issues in the US: private property rights and government land seizure, gay marriage and partial-birth abortion. :wtf:

The importance of the court cannot be underestimated. It was the supreme court that segregated American schools and then reversed the judgment. It was the supreme court that made the famous Roe v Wade ruling that confirmed a woman's right to an abortion. The amendment has long been a bugbear for the religious right, which may well seek to overturn the ruling once Mr Bush has made his appointments.

snip>

On the economic front, the White House has been building up problems that will have to be tackled sooner or later. In his first term, the Bush administration engineered what an International Monetary Fund economist termed as the "best recovery that money can buy".

That recovery rested on huge tax cuts and massive government - especially military - spending. The result has been enormous US budget and trade deficits that the IMF believe to be unsustainable...

more...

[54anickel]

34. What a Bush win will mean for Europe

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/comment/story/0%2C14259%2C1342534%2C00.html

Transatlantic relations are likely to sour further if Bush gains a second term in the White House, says Ian Black

Wednesday November 3, 2004

Europe badly wanted John Kerry to win the US presidential election, hoping for a fresh start that would turn the bitter disagreements of the Iraq war into a thing of the past, even if it was always widely acknowledged that achieving it would be far from easy. But a second term for George Bush means that the transatlantic gap is now likely to yawn even wider than before.
It is true that some EU leaders - Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder in particular - calculated privately that life would be easier without a demanding, fence-mending Democrat in the White House. But the sensible, longer-term calculation was that Mr Kerry would at least moderate the unilateralist instincts sharpened by Mr Bush and the powerful neoconservatives on his team by wooing and consulting America's traditional allies.

Private European dismay at the outcome was masked by predictable and diplomatic public statements of determination to work together - though exactly how this will happen remains to be seen. "Despite the issue of our differing positions in the past, we all have to contribute to ensuring that the situation in Iraq stabilises," declared the German interior minister, Otto Schily. In Britain, Tony Blair will be hoping to benefit from the continuity of his much-vaunted "special relationship" with a re-elected Mr Bush, ineffective though many believe it has been, and highly damaging to his domestic standing as it undoubtedly is.

France, which led Old Europe's opposition to the Iraq war and spent months swapping furious insults with the US, was resigned to the inevitable. Michel Barnier, the foreign minister, could only praise American democracy for its vigour and a high turnout at the polls. His colleague Franco Frattini of Italy, another wartime Bush ally, spoke for countries on both sides of the divide when he talked of the need to maintain a close relationship with Washington.

more...

[RawMaterials]

37. There Fleecing the country

Read Greg plast "the best democracy money can buy" good book.

when the housing bubble bust the government will step in and buy everything(housing,water,electrical,gas,and mines) then they will sell it back to the American people as a service for inflated coast turning every day people into a sort of cattle or "free slave".

welcome to the new world order, IMF, world bank, and Illuminati.

[54anickel]

39. It that what that property seizure bit is about in the supreme court

section of the first article? I've not heard of that - hence the WTF following the statement.
I haven't read that book yet either. So many books, so little time these days.

[bain_sidhe]

42. Property seizure...

The question is whether governments can seize property and turn it over to private, commerical interests. Governments have always had the right to seize property for "the public benefit" - usually means for putting through roads or building power plants and such. The case the Supreme Court will be deciding is one where the government seized private property and gave it to commercial interests, arguing that the "public benefit" of doing so was jobs (and of course, lots of profits for the commerical interests but we don't talk about that because, well, it's so gauche to mention such things).

Here's an overview relating to a case decided in the Michigan Supreme Court - I don't know if this is the one headed for the U.S. Supreme Court, but there are several more like it that might be what the article was talking about:

http://writ.corporate.findlaw.com/hamilton/20040812.html

SNIP:

Here's how the phenomenon works: A local government entity forces reluctant private property owners, usually at a price significantly below the open market, and then to relocate. And it does so not because the public will benefit from the new use of the property, but rather because it seeks to benefit private developers. Why? Because the developers have lobbied the government in the hopes of securing this special privilege, rather than having to take their chances like any other potential land buyer.

Consider one New York City situation. The New York Times is interested in developing an office tower on land previously owned by thriving though small private businesses near Times Square. The developers behind the project have managed to get the land they want condemned - thus neatly avoiding the necessity of going on the open market and actually bidding for the land.

Improperly, the government has been the Times' broker and front man. And if there were any doubt this was a boondoggle, it ought to be resolved by the fact that the City also has thrown in tax breaks that will amount to millions of dollars of savings for the Times. As a result, New York taxpayers will not only pay for their morning paper; they will effectively pay for it twice.

Along the way, a number of the most basic principles of the free market are undermined. Owners lose their power to set their price - via auction, or whatever method they choose. They lose their right to exclude others from their property - this buyer is going to be occupying the property no matter what. And they lose their power to decide whether to sell, and to whom to sell.

[RawMaterials]

44. Court to decide on property seizure

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6219628/

If the high court rules in favor of the property owners challenging New London's land seizures, it could block other municipalities from using eminent domain to take property for economic development.

Traditionally, eminent domain was used to seize property for public projects like new roads, bridges and schools.

But over the last decade, eminent domain has been increasingly invoked to secure land for private development projects in which the only public benefit is the promise of new jobs and tax dollars

[54anickel]

47. Thanks GoldOilCrude. I've not been paying any attention to that case.

Wonder which side the courts will take? Private property, or the big investor while claiming it to be in the best interest of the society.
Interesting...

[bain_sidhe]

51. AH! That's the one!

I remembered reading that the Court had accepted one such case, but google didn't turn this one up - just the Michigan one. Musta used the wrong search terms (property seizure rather than eminent domain, I suspect).

[54anickel]

45. Thanks bain_sidhe. Years ago here in WI, the county or state could

condemn land for highway improvements or adding it to the state forest and pay you next to nothing. But I understood they changed it so they had to give you a fair value. Hadn't heard about this crooked deal doing it for private investment.

[RawMaterials]

43. court voids property seizure ban july 10 2003

http://www.registerguard.com/news/2003/07/10/c3.cr.forfeit.0710.html

Forfeitures commonly have been used to acquire assets such as money, cars and other property linked to suspected drug dealing.

Seizures and sales of confiscated assets used to be done under civil procedures even if no one ended up convicted of a crime, and police agencies often used the proceeds to fund new investigations

Prozanski said Wednesday that the forfeiture law could again be debated because the changes made in 2001 expire in 2005 unless the Legislature extends them.

He said he hoped the appeals court ruling is appealed to the state Supreme Court in an effort to get a better reading on what differences in an initiative measure amount to multiple constitutional amendments.

The appeals court relied on a benchmark 1998 Supreme Court ruling that has been used by courts to overturn several voter-passed initiative measures, including a property compensation measure also approved by voters in 2000.

The Supreme Court said proposed constitutional changes must be closely related to be included in a single ballot measure.

The appeals court said the forfeiture measure's separate provisions requiring criminal convictions and restricting uses of proceeds didn't meet the high court's standard because there isn't a logical relationship between those two provisions.

[RawMaterials]

35. Bank of America lays off 200

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/business/10093021.htm

"As we had talked about earlier in the summer, it's really a result of... consumer demand for mortgages across the industry dropping," said spokeswoman Julie Davis, who is based in Atlanta.

"Most folks who were going to refinance have already done so," Davis said.

"We're having to scale back our operations to meet current and anticipated customer demand."

She said year-to-date mortgage originations for the bank are $69.2 billion. Last year was a record year at $131 billion.

this was posted on another board.

[54anickel]

36. 2:41 and Cha-ching$$$$

B-) Oh yeah!!! Volatility, volume, new blood, and bullish sentiment are back!!! Just what the doctor order. Yee-haw, to the moon!

Dow 10,280.62 +143.57 (+1.42%)
Nasdaq 2,018.39 +14.06 (+0.70%)
S&P 500 1,157.24 +14.04 (+1.23%)
10-yr Bond 4.068% -0.002
30-yr Bond 4.818% -0.008
NYSE Volume 1,261,661,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,339,110,000

2:30PM: Indices are off their highs, but are holding on to the bulk of today's gains with spirited leadership from a number of blue chip industry groups.... Tobacco ranks at the top of the list in that respect with Altria Group (MO 54.50, +4.50) setting the pace... Earlier today the Dow component reaffirmed its 2004 guidance and announced that it is looking at "a number of alternatives to maximize shareholder value, including the separation of the company into two, or potentially three, strong and independent entities..." ...
Retail is another core pocket of strength as the market has taken a bright view of the same-store sales results for October... The casino & gaming group is continuing its winning streak, riding a wave of consolidation activity that saw Penn National (PENN 51.63, +10.19) announce a merger agreement with Argosy Gaming (AGY 45.35, +4.60) after yesterday's close... Separately, crude futures are now down $2.08 at $48.80/bbl... NYSE Adv/Dec 2461/792, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1592/1404

2:00PM: Buyers remain in control of the action as the indices have inched to new session highs in the past half hour... Credit for the rally is being attributed largely to the drop in crude futures... One could argue, however, that with the election uncertainty now a thing of the past, there is a fear of missing out on a year-end rally... That consideration is perhaps encouraging some short-covering and a commitment of new money that was sidelined throughout the summer months... Also, it stands to reason that investors are no longer feeling as risk averse as they once did...

Thus, they see renewed appeal in the stock market, mindful that earnings and economic growth, while moderating, still remain quite solid...NYSE Adv/Dec 2434/800, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1596/1349

1:30PM : The correlation between falling oil prices and rising stock prices is umistakable today as buying efforts in the equity market gained traction around 10:50 ET, which was roughly when crude futures started heading south... Since then, there has been a steady uptrend in the major indices with broad-based participation in the move... Technically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a focal point as its latest uptick has the blue chip average trading just above its 200-day simple moving average (currently 10,248.54), which has served as a key point of resistance since September...

At the moment, the indices are all at, or near, their best levels for the session...NYSE Adv/Dec 2331/873, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1513/1414

[RawMaterials]

38. 1928 all over again

didn't the conservits take control of all parts of government, then the markets when sky high until the crash?

[ozymandius]

46. Final numbers - a day for the bulls

Dow 10,314.84 +177.79 (+1.75%)
Nasdaq 2,023.63 +19.30 (+0.96%)
S&P 500 1,161.62 +18.42 (+1.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.068% -0.002
NYSE Volume 1,782,502,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,791,732,000

[llmart]

48. Don't get too excited.....

It'll be short-lived, just like last time. If you're smart, you'll get out now and put it in something safe.

[htuttle]

49. Something safe...

...like canned goods and fuel oil.

[54anickel]

52. Cuttin' the bait, settin' the trap. See what the jobs report look like

tomorrow. I'm thinking if it's acceptable it will continue to rally for a bit longer. There's a lot of Repug money that's been sittin' on the sidelines. Gotta coax in a few more suckers to think it's safe to go back in.

[ozymandius]

50. And some blather

U.S. stocks soar as oil slumps to 5-week low

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Blue chips rallied to their best level in more than six weeks and the Nasdaq surged above the 2,000 mark after oil-prices fell more than 4 percent to end below $49 a barrel.

Conflicting reports over whether Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat had died also held investors' attention.

Crude tumbles to 5-week low

Crude-oil futures closed under $49 a barrel in New York for the first time in five weeks, pressured by the big increase in last week's U.S. crude supplies.

-cut-

Crude for December delivery ended down $2.06, or 4.1 percent, at $48.82 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041104/e4c54a192551bde4f9b6121f58ef0fa3_1.html

[fedsron2us]

53. Interesting that both oil and the dollar trended sharply lower

Over the past year crude has tended to rise as the dollar weakened. This suggests some smart money must think that the current economic growth trends are unsustainable and that demand for energy is going to reduce when the economy contracts. The spike in the gold price also looks quite bearish. I wonder how long we will have to wait for the post election stock market euphoria to evaporate into thin air. It will probably happen when Bush goes cap in hand to Congress to get the federal debt ceiling raised to $8.4 trillion.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=544&e=15&u=/ap/debt_ceiling

If that does not happen then the crap could start to hit the fan as soon as the 18th November 2004.

Sweet dreams Georgie boy. This may not have been such a good election to win.

[54anickel]

54. Tenatively scheduled auction Monday and Tuesday. Gotta see if

we get any foreign takers this time around. Private foreign investors were net sellers and it was the CBs doing all the buying.