I think it may be the conservatives who are outgunned eventually.
The moderates all voted for Bush because they wanted to keep the White House, but the conservatives are in a minority in the Congress. One of the reasons that we were able to defeat some moderates in Congress, was that they were voted into office in moderate districts, but they voted along with Bush and the conservatives in the House in order to keep ranks in Washinton, In essence they had gone Washington and they did not vote in a way that their constituency would approve of. When their support or radical, extreme right issues were exposed, they lost their seats.
This is important because I beleive that it is the Republicans who will be split during this next four years, while the Democrats will be able to consilidate their strength and take over a number of Republican seats in 2006. In many areas of upstate New York, many districts that had an large advantage in registered Republicans suddlely switched over to having far more democrats registered in their counties. When those seats some up in 2006, republicans will lose them. There are not enough republican voters there to hold them. And 2006 being a non-presidential election year will allow this to happen. I think we will see a repeat of the Barack Obama trend in northern states and all those that Kerry won in the Midwest and Northeast. Many, many republicans in Kerry states will be unseated, as we show how they voted on the extreme side of the republican party, rather than the moderate side that these communities expect.
More important, with the right candidate we will easily be able to unseat every Republican Governor in the Northeast and Rust Belt states that went for Kerry. This election may have given Bush a mandate, but it cost him the support of over fifty five million Americans all concentrated in their own areas. Any moderate Republican who supports the neo-cons will lose their seats in communities where moderates reign. We will have to look at Senate seats as well, as this year most of the replacements were in the south, while in 2006 we will likely be looking at seats in the Northeast. Bush will find that he is not goin go have very much sucess in winning the support of those who voted against him and given the changeover in many communities where Republicans have losst their voter stregnth, there is little that they will be able to do to retain those seats.
Lets look at who is going to be toast in 2006...
Pennsylvania, a state that went Democrat in an enormous way this year:
Rick Santorum is up for Re-election. Rick is toast in the Senate after the super Democratic Turnout in PA. Perhaps we could put up the Current Governor for the seat.
Mississippi...Trent Lott. Thougth this state went for Bush, the final vote was far closer than the polls indicated. Lott will likely retire, but more likely will face stiff opposition from the extemely popular Attorney General of the state, Mike Moore.
Moderate Olympia Snowe will probably lose a primary in her State of Maine, because the Neo-Cons want to replace this extremly moderate Republican with a much more conservative one. Given Kerrys win of Maine, the right Democrat wil take the Seante seat form this state.
A BIG factor in 2006 will be that during this year, the ultra crappy Medicare presciption drug bill comes into effect. Given the fact that less than ten percent of those elegible for the early drug cards actually too the government up on the deal, it is unlikely that the fully implemented plan will do much better. If this plan fails to get at least half of those eligible to take part in it, it wil be considered a Republican failure, and those members of the House andSentate up for re-election will be out.
Possible Voter Backlash Feared on Drug Benefit Measure
08/03/03 | Source: Washington Post | By: Helen Dewar
Only a few weeks ago, enactment of a Medicare benefit for prescription drugs looked like a big winning issue for next year's campaigns, and lawmakers worried mainly about punishment from voters if they failed to act. Now, with voters responding skeptically to details of bills approved by the House and Senate, lawmakers have another concern: punishment if they do act.
Disenchantment, especially over what critics regard as the skimpiness of benefits, could turn the issue from a plus to a minus in the 2004 presidential and congressional campaigns, according to some lawmakers and political strategists.
And, more immediately, if the skepticism deepens, it could add to the complexity of already difficult negotiations to resolve differences between the two measures that are scheduled to begin in earnest when Congress returns after Labor Day.
In a worst-case scenario, President Bush and lawmakers of both parties could wind up being blamed by voters, whatever they do. They could be blamed either for failure to pass a bill or for passing a bill that falls too far short of voters' expectations, a description that appears to fit the bills passed by the House and Senate last month.
http://www.ourfuture.org/issues_and_campaigns/medicare/national_news/08_03_03_wp.cfmI don not have a list of House seats up for re-election in 2006, but I anticipate that there are a site more that will be opening up than we anticipate, many int the northeast.
The polarization of the nation is obvious after this election. In the next two years, Bush's war in Iraq and the body bag count will most certainly have an effect on the House seats. Bush will try to avoid a draft if possible before the 2006 elections, but the situation in Iraq and the lack of replacement military, will give him no alternative. The rate of enlistment in both the services and the national guard is only at 70 percent of expected figures.
We have to start thinking of 2006 and start thinking now, while the neo-cons and traditional republicans start pickling each other off.
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