STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 5 November

[ozymandius]

Friday November 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 76 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 329 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 18 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1079
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 4, 2004

Dow... 10,314.76 +177.71 (+1.75%)
Nasdaq... 2,023.63 +19.30 (+0.96%)
S&P 500... 1,161.67 +18.47 (+1.62%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.07% -0.00 (-0.05%)
Gold future... 430.80 +5.40 (+1.25%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.46 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH82406_2004-11-05_11-37-58_L05375309

Gold gets charge from sickly dollar, heads upward

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near 16-year highs on Friday, poised to climb on a sickly dollar and the potential impact of U.S. jobs data later in the day, analysts and traders said.

"All you have to do is look at what has happened to the dollar -- that is what people are doing, and why we are waiting for the payrolls figures," UBS analyst John Reade said.

Standard Bank London saw a possible rise to as high as $465 an ounce if gold broke through chart resistance just above $430.

The dollar has crumbled after the re-election of U.S. President George W. Bush, amid speculation the administration will tolerate a weak currency to narrow the U.S. trade deficit.

<snip>

Later on Friday data for October non-farm payrolls will be released, with economists expecting 169,000 jobs to be added.

"If the number is not good, the dollar will weaken and gold will go up," Reade added.

<snip>

"Overall the mix of another four years of Bush economic and political policies, geo-political instabilities particularly in the Middle East and the threat of terrorism all suggest higher gold prices, with $440 my target for the year," James Moore of the TheBullionDesk.com said.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1099647515-9e32d306-15740

Forex - Dollar steadies, markets await US labour report

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar steadied after sharp falls yesterday but the pressure on the currency has not yet abated as markets wait for the US labour market report this afternoon

Some believe the non-farm payrolls report will exceed consensus estimates of a 130,000 rise - which if proven true may help the dollar find temporary respite

But players are reluctant to place bets based on predictions for the non-farm payrolls numbers having been stung so many times this year, said Kamal Sharma at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein

"The view is that the euro will not see a significant pullback, perhaps just ease slightly lower. But if the euro goes to levels near 1.2850 usd or 1.2830 usd it may also be a good time to buy the euro. People will be buying on dips," he said

Still, the 1.29 usd figure is proving a tough nut to crack, he added. Beyond the labour market report however, the dollar is predicted to weaken further as attention reverts to the twin US deficits

...more...

Today's Reports:

Nov 05 8:30 AM
Average Workweek Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 33.8
market anticipates 33.8
last report 33.8
revised -

Nov 05 8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.3%
market anticipates 0.3%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Nov 05 8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 200K
market anticipates 175K
last report 96K
revised -

Nov 05 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate Oct
report -
briefing.com anticipates 5.4%
market anticipates 5.4%
last report 5.4%
revised -

Nov 05 3:00 PM
Consumer Credit Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates $4.5B
market anticipates $7.0B
last report $-2.4B
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

The JOBS are BOOMING!!!!

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. TEMP HELP JOBS UP 48,000

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. CONSTRUCTION JOBS UP 71,000 ON STORM CLEANUP

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. MANUFACTURING JOBS DOWN 5,000

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. AVERAGE WORKWEEK UNCHANGED AT 33.8 HOURS

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.3%, UP 2.6% Y-O-Y

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. AUG, SEPT. PAYROLLS REVISED HIGHER BY 115,000

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 5.5%

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. Oct. payrolls surge by unexpected 337,000 - Rex Nutting

8:30am 11/05/04 U.S. OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 337,000 VS. 175,000 EXPEC

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3542151273-825804985&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a surprising 337,000 in October, about double the expectation, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls since March. In addition, payroll gains in August and September were revised higher by a cumulative 115,000. The unemployment rate climbed a tenth to 5.5 percent. Economists were expecting payrolls to grow by about 175,000 in October and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.4 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Construction jobs increased by 71,000, due to cleanup efforts after four hurricanes.

[UpInArms]

7. Dollar rallies after larger-than-expected U.S. payrolls

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3613863079-825805907&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar surged against its major rivals after a U.S. report showed an October payrolls gain at more than double forecasts. August and September figures were also revised up. The dollar was at 106.64 yen vs. 106.11 yen before the report. The euro was at $1.2783 vs. $1.2861.

[UpInArms]

9. Economist: strong Oct job data shows economy on the move

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3673426968-825806617&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The strong Oct. job data shows that the U.S. economy "is on the move," said Robert Dederick, a former Commerce Department economist and now an economic consultant. "We sort of knew this was going to happen. The only question was when," Dederick said. The 337,000 increase in nonfarm payroll jobs in October "is probably an exaggeration on the upside," but it is "consistent with an economy that has been moving as this economy has over the past several quarters." "This is an economy that is in a self-sustaining expansion. So the real question is whether the economy can keep up this momentum. It looks like we have enough strength" to offset any weakness in the near term from higher oil prices," Dederick said.

[UpInArms]

17. 'Unquestionably stellar' U.S. jobs report: Economy.com

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3803572338-825808245&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- "This report will go a long way toward alleviating concerns that the labor market is slowing," said economist Hasseb Ahmed of Economy.com after the Labor Department reported U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 337,000 in October. "Overall, this was an unquestionably stellar report." October's gains -- combined with upward revisions to August and September data -- "markedly change the recent trajectory of payroll growth." A rate hike from the Fed in November "is virtually assured and another 25 basis points in December is extremely likely."

[UpInArms]

18. Economist: Oct. job growth ex-hurricane above 250,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3840961343-825808623&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The surprising strength in the October unemployment report cannot all be explained away by rebuilding activity after the flurry of hurricanes in August and September, said Tim O'Neill, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal. "This is a wonderful number, even if you discount the hurricane impact," O'Neill said. Even if you eliminate all of the construction jobs in October, "you are still well-over 250,000," O'Neill said. "This is obviously excellent news," he said. The job report indicates strong consumer spending in the final three months of the year. O'Neill said he expects fourth quarter real GDP growth at 4.0 percent, with a similar number in the first quarter. Higher oil prices might shave some percentage points from growth, but not derail the recovery, he said. Job growth should average 200,000 per month in 2005, he said.

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. labor market not as strong as reported: economist

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3872748727-825809006&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- "The true state of the labor market is nothing like as strong as this report" from the Labor Department that employment grew by 337,000 in October, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "These numbers make it very tempting to call the end of the soft patch but we are reluctant to do so." He said Fed rate hikes in December and February are still uncertain. "The real test for payrolls will come over the next couple of months, as the hurricane effect fades."

[UpInArms]

13. Dollar SOARS on Jobs Report

Last trade 85.03 Change +0.49 (+0.58%)

Settle 84.54 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.42 Previous Close 84.54

High 85.07 Low 84.36

Last tick: 2004-11-05 08:31:06 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

27. oopsie!

9:55am 11/05/04 DOLLAR AT 105.99 YEN, DOWN 0.1% VS. THURSDAY

9:55am 11/05/04 EURO AT $1.2884, UP 0.1% VS. THURSDAY

9:55am 11/05/04 U.S. DOLLAR CAN'T HOLD POST-JOBS REPORT GAIN

[54anickel]

22. And shouts from the mountain top "The Bush Plan is working!" This

will be used as the evidence that he truly is the Messiah! The "resurrection and the light" for all of our countries economic and diplomatic woes. We ARE again the world leaders!

Oh happy days,
Oh happy da-a-ays.
When Georgie washed,
When Georgie wa-a-ashed,
All our blues away.

[UpInArms]

25. Hey 54anickel - was thinking of you

and wondered if you remember that old tune that the Monkeys had "Here We Come"?

well, with apologies to all, here goes:

Here We Come

Here we come, marchin'
Down your street.
We get the ugliest looks from
Ev'ry one we see.
Hey, hey, we're the Bushies
And people say we screw them around.
But we're too busy shooting
We'll take anybody down.

We go wherever we want to,
do what we want to do
We don't have time to get restless,
There's always something new.
Hey, hey, we're the Bushies
And people say we screw them around.
But we're too busy shooting
We'll take anybody down.

We're just spreadin' democracy,
Come and watch us shoot and bomb,
We're the tough generation,
And we've got someone to blame.

Any time, Or anywhere,
Just look over your shoulder
Guess who'll be standing there

Hey, hey, we're the Bushies
And people say we screw them around.
But we're too busy shooting
We'll take anybody down.

(break)

Hey, hey, we're the Bushies
And people say we screw them around.
But we're too busy shooting
We'll take anybody down.

We're just spreadin' democracy,
Come and watch us shoot and bomb,
We're the tough generation,
And we've got someone to blame.

Hey, hey, we're the Bushies
Hey, hey, we're the Bushies


extra verse:

Hey, hey, we're the Bushies,
You never know where we'll be found.
so you'd better get ready,
We are comin' to your town.

[54anickel]

30. Wow, that's a great one UIA! So very true. A Monkee's song, how

appropriate for the Chimpster. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

26. Snow: growing strength of economy shown in jobs report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3994418056-825810451&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The strong jobs report released by the government shows the growing strength of the U.S. economy, Treasury Secretary John Snow said Friday. "There can be no doubt that President Bush's tax relief, combined with good monetary policy, the strength of the small business sector, and our outstanding workforce, has led to a growing economy that is producing good jobs for American families," Snow said. Earlier, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 337,000 jobs in October.

[54anickel]

33. Heh, just had a visual of Snow running a roadside Kool-aid stand! n/t

[UpInArms]

91. REPORT: U.S. Sept. consumer credit up 5.8%, or $9.8 bln

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.6250687269-825834118&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer credit grew by $9.8 billion, or a 5.8 percent annual rate, in September to a seasonally adjusted $2.05 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Friday. That's the 10th consecutive monthly increase. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, grew by $6.2 billion, or 10 percent. Nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, rose by $3.7 billion, or 3.4 percent. Consumer credit rose by $2.2 billion in August, revised from the Fed's earlier estimate that credit fell by $2.4 billion. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast an increase of $6.6 billion in September.

3:00pm 11/05/04 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CREDIT UP 5.8%, OR $9.8 BLN

3:00pm 11/05/04 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CREDIT IS 10TH CONSECUTIVE RISE

[UpInArms]

2. US economic policy after Bush's reelection

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/05/content_2180453.htm

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Xinhuanet) -- US President George W. Bush pledged to seek to earn the trust of those who did not back him during the election campaign, after claiming a reelection victory on Wednesday.

How will he win the trust from people in the coming four years when the US economy is facing so many challenges?

<snip>

Undoubtedly, tax-cut will continue to be the core of economic policies in his four-year new term. Bush has promised time again in his presidential campaign that he will make his tax cut measures permanent in a bid to realize a long-term economic growthand thus increase job growth.

He also stressed the need to simplify the complicated US tax code to increase the government revenue. Yes. The tax-cut packageshave been successful in the past years in terms of stimulating theeconomy.

However, they also contributed to the soaring federal deficit. Making the tax cuts permanent would add nearly one trillion US dollars to federal debt by 2014. It will possibly smash Bush's hope that the government deficit will cut by an half in the next four years. High federal deficit will also become one of several hinders in the US economic growth.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. N.C. unemployment spiked in October

http://www.citizen-times.com/cache/article/business/70308.shtml

ASHEVILLE - More than 2,100 people filed initial unemployment claims at the end of October, giving the state one of the highest rate increases in the nation, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor released Thursday.

North Carolina had the fifth-highest initial claims in the nation, behind California, Missouri, Illinois and Michigan, where workers lost jobs in the construction, agriculture, automobile, transportation and manufacturing sectors.

Layoffs in the textile, furniture, primary metals, construction and trade industries drove claims up for the week ending Oct. 23, the Labor Department said.

Just where the layoffs are happening is not certain, said Peter Neenan, director of Labor Market Information at the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Analysts skeptical of Bush budget

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/10106120.htm?1c

excerpt:

Bush pledged early this year to halve the deficit in five years, a promise he renewed Thursday. ``I would suggest'' deficit hawks ``look at our budget that we've submitted to Congress, which does, in fact, get the deficit down, cut in half in five years,'' Bush said.

But in an independent analysis of that budget, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) concluded it would not fulfill that promise. The deficit in fiscal 2004, which ended Sept. 30, was $413 billion. Under Bush's plan for spending and taxes, the deficit would be $258 billion in 2009. That may understate the size of the deficit in coming years because it does not include any additional costs for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Pentagon is expected to seek an additional $70 billion early next year.

Moreover, the president's budget does not include the cost of a Social Security reform plan that includes the personal investment accounts Bush is demanding. Under such a plan, workers would be allowed to divert one-third or more of their share of Social Security taxes into stocks, bonds or other investments.

Because the diverted money would otherwise have gone to existing Social Security beneficiaries, the funds would have to be made up through additional government borrowing or spending cuts. A CBO analysis of one of the plans drafted by Bush's Social Security commission concluded the near-term cost would be $104.5 billion in 2005, rising to $146.6 billion in 2009.

<snip>

Given the challenges of the president's Social Security plan amid record deficits, some budget analysts had hoped Bush's simultaneous call to simplify the tax code could be used to raise revenue. They reasoned that taxpayers may be willing to dig a little deeper in exchange for a tax system they saw as simpler and fairer.

But Bush made it clear Thursday that was not his intention. Any tax code changes would have to bring in the same amount of revenue as the tax code they would replace, he said.

...more...

[teryang]

106. It also doesn't include the 200 billion a year taken from SS

..to fund general revenue items. Add this 200 billion a year to annual figures and the anticipated improvement becomes laughable.

It's the largest transfer of wealth in history from working people to subsidized corporations, war profiteers, and the extremely wealthy.

[UpInArms]

5. German September Industrial Production Unexpectedly Falls 1.2%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aVfjhHl.NIng&refer=home

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Industrial production in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly declined for a second month in September as domestic demand flagged and oil prices surged.

Production at construction sites, factories, utilities and mines fell 1.2 percent from August, when industrial production also fell 1.2 percent, the Economy and Labor Ministry reported. Economists had expected output to rise 0.5 percent, the median of 42 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed.

Rising fuel costs are crimping earnings of exporters such as Degussa AG, the world's biggest maker of specialty chemicals, and are set to slow down this year's fastest global economic growth in nearly three decades. Germany's expansion will slow next year as rising unemployment holds back consumer spending, the International Monetary Fund said Nov. 2.

``We expect the growth rate to flatten out,'' said Dieter Brucklacher, chief executive of the Oberkochen, Germany-based tool maker Leitz GmbH & Co. KG and president of Germany's VDMA plant and machinery industry group. `` There are signs the economies of important importers are cooling off. Still, world demand for investment goods remains good.''

<snip>

Energy costs are burdening households as well as exports by driving up consumer prices. The inflation rate in Germany accelerated to 2.1 percent in October, the highest level since January 2002.

Persistent joblessness is also hurting consumption at home, which accounts for more than half of the economy. Unemployment in Germany rose for the ninth month in October, keeping the jobless rate at a five-year high of 10.7 percent. Retail sales in Germany fell 0.4 percent in September from the month before, the national statistics office reported this week.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. United Airlines Seeks Staff Concessions

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6724918

NEW YORK (Reuters) - United Airlines is expected to ask a bankruptcy judge to let it extract new concessions worth $725 million a year from employees as it seeks to reorganize, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources.

United, a unit of number two U.S. air carrier UAL Corp., has been in bankruptcy protection since December 2002. Its current cost-cutting plan focuses on maintenance, airport operations and distribution.

The Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, said that unless United is able to find further labor savings and cut costs, the company fears it will be unable to attract financing to allow it to step out of bankruptcy court protection by the middle of next year.

According to the sources, United's new requests will include pay cuts, benefit reductions and changes in work rules. The report added that the requests would be proportional, with pilots -- the highest-compensated employees -- being asked to make the largest sacrifice.

United has stated previously that it would most likely be forced to terminate and replace its employee pension plans to obtain the financing needed to exit bankruptcy. United has about $4.1 billion in pension funding due over the next five years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. Northwest pilots approve pay cut package

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.4800959722-825819233&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Pilots at Northwest Airlines (NWAC) approved a $265 million pay cut package, the Air Line Pilots Association said Friday. The two-year agreement will cut pilot pay by 15 percent. The deal is contingent on Northwest restructuring its credit facility that expires Oct. 2005.

[UpInArms]

8. Treasurys plummet on hefty U.S. jobs count for Oct.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.362498287-825805988&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys dived after the Labor Department reported an October jobs number roughly double that of expections. The benchmark 10-year note was off 28/32 at 100 18/32. Its yield ($TNX) , which moves in the opposite direction as price, rose to 4.18 percent.

[UpInArms]

10. Futures surge on Oct. jobs report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD5AEC23D%2DB5AD%2D488E%2DABB6%2D083ADD4A4D1F%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock futures jumped Friday after a surge in U.S. jobs growth in October. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 337,000 in October, about double the expectation, the Labor Department reported.

It was the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls since March. In addition, payroll gains in August and September were revised higher by a cumulative 115,000. The unemployment rate climbed a tenth to 5.5 percent. Economists were expecting payrolls to grow by about 175,000 in October.

The Dow industrials futures spiked 69 points on the number to 10,370. They had been down 4 points an hour ahead of the data. The Nasdaq 100s tracker (QQQ: news, chart, profile) was up 1.3 percent at $38.10; the S&P 500s tracker (SPY: news, chart, profile) was up 0.6 percent at $117.28.

The dollar - in particular - will be in view after the data. European politicians, for the second day running, were signaling some discomfort with the euro atop $1.28, near an all-time high. The euro eased slightly to $1.2783 after the data.

French president Jacques Chirac said he was "a little worried" about the dollar's fall against the euro, AFX News reported from an EU summit in Brussels. "It is to be studied by the European Central Bank," he said.

Yet currency analysts aren't anticipating a European response, such as a Japanese-style intervention. "European exporters are going to moan when they are priced out of the U.S. market, but I don't think we're at that stage yet," said Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist at Bear Stearns.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. October was a catch-up month, economist Gay says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3697970949-825806894&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Surprisingly strong gains of 337,000 in U.S. employment in October reflect, in part, a statistical catchup, said Robert Gay, head of global fixed income at Commerz Bank. Gay said September wasn't as weak as portrayed in the data, nor was October quite as strong. Gay said the strong data don't necessarily mean the Federal Reserve will raise rates at every meeting going forward, because "the economy still hasn't been hit with the full brunt of oil prices."

[UpInArms]

12. Odds for December Fed hike increase after jobs data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3732359954-825807231&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Interest-rate futures contracts show hedgers see increased odds the Federal Reserve follows up a widely expected quarter-point interest rate hike next week with a like-size move in December. Following Friday's larger-than-expected October payrolls gain, the odds that the Fed's target moves from 2 percent to 2.25 percent in December stand at 73 percent, up from under 60 percent in the previous session, according to fed funds futures contracts traded in Chicago. Traders have fully priced in a rate increase to 2 percent from the current 1.75 percent on Nov. 10. The odds that the Fed's target stands as high as 2.5 percent in early February stand at just under 25 percent.

[UpInArms]

14. Fed tightening in Dec. not a sure thing, economist say

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3762240625-825807758&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Markets now expect the Federal Open Market Committee to boost short-term rates at both the November and December meetings, but MFR chief economist Joshua Shapiro says it's not done deal yet. "December tightening is a good bet if economic data stay firm, although it is still not a sure thing," he said. "There are, after all, still six weeks of data before the Dec. 14 FOMC meeting."

[ozymandius]

15. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

THE POST-ELECTION BUSH EFFECT

It was a nasty campaign season for the presidential elections with constant derogatory comments coming from each candidate. To put it succinctly, I’m very glad to see most of the name calling and mud-slinging behind us. The big picture I walked away with brought clarity to my mind that we live in a much divided America. There appears to be a growing gap between rich and poor, tax cuts or no tax cuts, pound the war drums versus stop the killing, more welfare and war spending versus growing deficits, and all the other major points of difference. It seems to me a great number of people around the world have viewed U.S. global aggression as something from our policy makers, not the general populace. With our endorsement of Mr. Bush, I believe we have sent the message to the world that we are OK with the current policies of increased spending for war. As a country we must take ownership of the policies of the Bush administration. From a very broad perspective the financial markets are now saying the re-election of President Bush is generally good for the stock market, bad for the bond market and the U.S. dollar, and inversely good for precious metals. The bottom line says we get bigger debts and deficits for our country as a whole.

The big issue moving forward will be higher government debt levels that need to be funded by savings from the rest of the world. “Bush is unambiguously bad for U.S. treasuries if he continues his policies,” said John Richards, a strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital. “Heavy military spending policies and tax cuts at home becoming permanent mean a major expansion in the federal deficit.” A second opinion came from Bill Gross of PIMCO when he commented, “We’re looking at $400 billion plus (deficits) as far as the eye can see; that’s a negative for the bond market.” Our weakening economy and need for increased borrowing should work to lower the value of the dollar as foreign investors continue to shy away from U.S. assets. Capital inflows to the U.S. have been declining for seven months now. If the inflows continue to slow we got problems…if inflows ever become net outflows, the dollar could be wiped-out in short order.

-cut-

So stocks are getting a relief rally with the uncertainties of the elections out of the way and the dollar is getting clobbered as the fundamentals would dictate, but the real anomaly right now is the strength in the bond market. Yesterday the price of the ten-year note fell below channel support during intra-day trading, but reversed to close higher for the day. With stocks rallying and a huge supply of Treasury notes hitting the market next week, one would expect bond prices to be under pressure. Today’s price action in Treasuries was also strange in that the shorter maturities sold off while someone was in there buying the long end of the curve. The five-year note was down by 0.1%, the 10-year was virtually unchanged, and the 30-year bond gained almost 0.2%. Today short-term interest rates moved higher and long-term interest rates moved lower, thereby working to flatten the yield curve. There certainly appears to be some conditioning prior to the auctions next week.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

16. Good morning UIA and everyone.

You're a posting machine, UIA.

Is this some doozy of a stock market honeymoon - or what? I took a look at the daily charts and there was hardly any abatement during the trading day. This seems to be driven by anticipated thrust of Bush policies: more war, Social Security provatization, less stem cell research. In general, the markets are driven by initiatives that stand no chance of making our lives better.

For me, I'm reaching for the popcorn - the kind puffed with hot air.

[UpInArms]

19. Morning Ozy!

Insomnia has struck again and with the help and wonder of the ease of Opera 7.54 and its marvelous "notes" - I can store up all of my anxiety laden news stories and post like there's no tomorrow :evilgrin:

But all the news is good to grand and what in the world can my anxieties have to do with reality?

I have put my shoulder to the wheel for the past four + years and have found myself exhausted with little to show for my efforts.

I have to do some soul searching and see what direction my life needs to go in - I may become just an early morning poster and abandon the day's activities in lieu of something that will do more to support my family and ask them not to support me so much in my quest for a more reasonable country. That reasonable country might just not be the one in which we are currently residing.

[ozymandius]

84. I cannot imagine another four years of repeating my past actions.

To imagine four more years of Bush and the same ol' stuff is very intimidating. The incalculable mess he has wrought at home and abroad, times two, overwhelms me. So I have decided to step up my activism on a local level with an eye toward the mid-terms.

As all politics is local, local action and interaction is essential. I have an affinity with people of various political stripes and these relationships could be cultivated to progress toward our populist political ends as espoused by the Kerry/Edwards campaign.

I have some time. When applied, I can write good letters. I have politically "connected" friends.

I love what our Julie Nelson has done. She became active in a local campaign and - behold - she has spent a number of occasions supping with Senator Levin.

Little steps. Little steps. That's my plan.

[54anickel]

90. I have been pondering much the same Ozy. Plenty of free time on

my hands now ;-) My uncle was very active down in FL this year where it apparently is not easy to be a Dem!

It was included in my decision to drop out as well. I want to get more active in not only the local political scene, but also with volunteering time with charitable organizations and getting back to being more involved with my church. I had put in an awful lot of time and energy when we were looking for a new pastor, but I've drifted away a bit.

[UpInArms]

21. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Futures indications don't budge much from their best levels, and thus still signal a noticeably higher start for the indices... Should the indices break through a series of resistance levels, stocks should stay well bid; however, it would not be surprising to see a slow drift lower throughout the day as the market is up big over the past 2 weeks.

8:57AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Expectations remain intact for a solidly higher open as the futures trade stays at its highs of the morning... The huge gain (337K) in Oct nonfarm payrolls, combined with the additional 113K jobs added in Aug and Sept, has supported forecasts of labor market strengthening... Just about every industry group should benefit from this news, with the few exceptions being mortgage-related sectors (due to the plunge in the treasury market).

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.0. Futures market zooms higher following the much better than expected Oct nonfarm payrolls number... 337K jobs were added during the month, and Sept was revised higher by 43K... As a result, the indices are now set for a moderately higher open... The treasury market, conversely, has been slammed on the news - the 10-year note down 40 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.21%.

8:25AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures trade is little changed heading into the 8:30 ET Oct jobs report... The consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls should prove most influential...

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to spillover buying from Thursday's rally. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 1532.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1487.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 6.00 pts. at 1521 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally, which posted a new contract high of 1161.90. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has entered a bullish mode and is rising, which signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of the March high on the weekly chart crossing at 1163.50 then monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60 are the next upside targets. Closes below broken resistance crossing at 1146.50 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 0.10 pts. at 1160.60 as of 5:59 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

23. 9:34 EST markets are open

Dow 10,337.03 +22.27 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,035.76 +12.13 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,163.33 +1.66 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.191% +0.123

NYSE Volume 37,176,000
Nasdaq Volume 91,894,000

[54anickel]

24. I'm betting on record volumes today! n/t

[UpInArms]

28. 10:00 EST numbers and some blather

Dow 10,365.13 +50.37 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,039.45 +15.82 (+0.78%)
S&P 500 1,165.70 +4.03 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% +0.107

NYSE Volume 227,515,000
Nasdaq Volume 307,564,000

9:40AM: Stock market starts the day on a positive note in response to the strong October employment report... After missing consensus estimate for four straight months, nonfarm payrolls spiked 337K (consensus of 175K).... This was above even the largest forecast (325K) in the consensus estimate and represented the largest gain since March... The report, combined with the upward revisions to September and August, effectively puts to rest worries about a stagnating labor market... That being said, the blue chip averages aren't seeing the explosive gains one might expect...

The 6% jump in the S&P 500 since late Oct - which has pushed the average to new 2004 intraday highs this morning - has limited the extent of buying enthusiasm...

[54anickel]

32. Huh? Not taking the bait yet? Strange. n/t

[UpInArms]

36. here's more blather

10:00AM: Major indices continue to accelerate under the auspices of a strong technology sector... Semiconductor is one of the leading names, thanks in part to chip processor Nvidia's (NVDA 18.39 +2.98) encouraging Q3 (Oct) report and upwards Q4 (Jan) outlook... Networking, disk drive, and computer hardware have similarly posted +1% gains, and have collectively contributed (along with biotech) to the Nasdaq's 0.8% jump... The blue chip averages, meanwhile, have lagged behind somewhat but are still showing healthy gains for the morning...

Transportation, cyclical, and retail - all economically-sensitive sectors - have been some of the standouts there...SOX +1.7, NYSE Adv/Dec 1439/1102, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1492/919

this is destined to bring in those undecided investors :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

38. 10:22 EST and they've taken the blather bait

Dow 10,391.16 +76.40 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,042.65 +19.02 (+0.94%)
S&P 500 1,168.23 +6.56 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.187% +0.119

NYSE Volume 356,690,000
Nasdaq Volume 454,001,000

[UpInArms]

44. 10:44 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,399.93 +85.17 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,043.37 +19.74 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 1,168.72 +7.05 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190% +0.122

NYSE Volume 482,012,000
Nasdaq Volume 583,163,000

10:30AM: The broader market extend yesterday's gains on the heels of this morning's better than expected Employment report and a sell off in Treasuries... The 10-year note is currently off 30/32 to yield 4.19% on speculation that the Fed may raise the discount interest rate not just once, but twice... Analysts still expect a 25-basis point increase (to 2.0%) in the benchmark interest rate next Wednesday, but following today's strong nonfarm payrolls figure, the likelihood of another rate hike on December 14 has increased (to 80% according to the Fed funds futures)...

This fact has pressured lenders like Countrywide Financial (CFC 31.48, -0.46) and Washington Mutual (WM 39.52, -0.31) in early trading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1580/1435, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1665/992

[54anickel]

64. 11:58 loosing steam headed into the lunch hour

Dow 10,346.24 +31.48 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,026.90 +3.27 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,161.17 -0.50 (-0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.192% +0.124
30-yr Bond 4.909% +0.097
NYSE Volume 815,494,000
Nasdaq Volume 953,915,000

11:30AM: Indices continue to slide as traders sell into the day's strength... The market has advanced considerably over the past two weeks - the S&P 500 spiking 3% in the past two days in fact - and that has led to some natural profit-taking... Investors often take a more cautious stance heading into the weekend and lighten exposure to the week's strongest groups... As a result, groups such as software, health care, and retail have come off their highs in the past minutes...
The October employment report was bullish for the economy, but some traders have reasoned such results were (rightfully so or not) already priced in...NYSE Adv/Dec 1613/1556, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1760/1098

11:00AM: Market slips off its best levels but continues to sport significant gains... The S&P 500 set a new high for the year, at 1170.9, but has since come off that as it has found overhead resistance... 1170 also marked its March 2002 closing high... The breadth figures are still bullish and up volume is outpacing down volume by a 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 3-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq... The price of crude oil recently slipped to a session low at $48.85/bbl (up $0.03)... The commodity is up today after falling to a 5-week low in early trading...

Although increasing stockpiles have eased supply concerns, worries still persist about rising winter demand forecasts...NYSE Adv/Dec 1748/1356, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1841/1962

10:30AM: The broader market extends yesterday's gains on the heels of this morning's better than expected Employment report and a sell off in Treasuries... The 10-year note is currently off 30/32 to yield 4.19% on speculation that the Fed may raise the Fed funds interest rate not just once, but twice...Analysts still expect a 25-basis point increase (to 2.0%) in the benchmark interest rate next Wednesday, but following today's strong nonfarm payrolls figure, the likelihood of another rate hike on December 14 has increased (to 80% according to the Fed funds futures)...

This fact has pressured lenders like Countrywide Financial (CFC 31.48, -0.46) and Washington Mutual (WM 39.52, -0.31) in early trading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1580/1435, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1665/992

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1586 (47%) 1676 (54%)
Declines 1635 (48%) 1238 (40%)
Unchanged 138 (4%) 148 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 439 (59%) 628 (70%)
Down Vol* 296 (39%) 258 (28%)
Unch. Vol* 7 (0%) 7 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 406 185
New Lo's 5 18

[UpInArms]

66. adding noon blather

12:00PM: The market has climbed higher thanks to a strong October employment report this morning, although gains have been kept in check in light of the indices' winning streak since mid-Oct... The S&P 500, for one, has surged 6% in the past 2 weeks as investors have looked past the Q3 (Sept) earnings season and the recent election... Buying on the bullish jobs data has thus been restrained - particularly as the S&P 500 set new yearly highs in the early action... Still, the mood of trading has been positive with nonfarm payrolls exceeding even the highest forecast in the consensus estimate...

The economy added 337K jobs in October (consensus of 175K) as every sector (except for manufacturing, which declined 5K) showed growth... The average work week held steady at 33.8 hours (consensus of 33.8) and average hourly earnings increased 0.1 to 0.3% (consensus of 0.3%) - the latter generally a precursor to hiring... The unemployment rate did rise to 5.5% (consensus of 5.4%), but this was really only a 0.03% uptick as the figure stood at 5.43% in September...

Labor-oriented firms - such as staffing stocks - have thus spiked on the news, as well as economically-sensitive groups like retail, transportation, and basic material... Sectors that are sensitive to interest-rates, though, have taken a hit as the likelihood of a Fed rate hike has increased... The Fed funds futures point to a nearly 100% probability in November, and 80% probability in December... The treasury market has also sold off on the implications, the 10-year note down 29 ticks, bringing its yield to 4.19%...

[Systematic Chaos]

29. If the currency charts are to be believed

It ALREADY looks like the dollar has retraced its surge after the reports came out and is once again LOWER against the Yen and Loonie, and back to even against the Euro.

If it weren't so tragic it would crack me up. :cry:

[54anickel]

31. I was just gonna say the same thing! That buck rally didn't last very

long! Right back down to 84.45 - talk about quick profit taking!

[UpInArms]

34. quickly on the downside for the buck

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.4228596528-825813038&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Dollar's job-related gains fizzle

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar has given back all of its post-U.S. jobs report gain to trade marginally lower against the euro and the Japanese yen. Currency traders have reported ongoing leveraged account and longer- term bullish euro positioning, said analysts at Action Economics. Asian central banks were also said to be buyers of euro-dollar as worries over record U.S. deficits continue to hound the greenback. The analysts said the euro may run into some congestion around $1.29, but once clear of that level would easily test the record high of $1.2927. The dollar was quoted at 105.99 yen, down 0.1 percent from Thursday and down from 106.64 after the U.S. jobs report. The euro was quoted at $1.2884, up 0.1 percent against the dollar on the day. It fell to $1.2783 after the jobs report.

here are the numbers:

Last trade 84.47 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

Settle 84.54 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.42 Previous Close 84.54

High 85.07 Low 84.30

Last tick: 2004-11-05 09:41:29 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

37. DOH! 84.39 now

Last trade 84.39 Change -0.15 (-0.18%)

Settle 84.54 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.42 Previous Close 84.54

High 85.07 Low 84.30

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-05 09:51:30 ET

[Systematic Chaos]

39. The world is out to, quite literally, ream us HARD.

Hate to use that sort of analogy but that is exactly how it will feel to 99.9% of us once it's over.

I check this thread every morning AND evening to keep up with what's going on. I'm not very knowledgeable other than what I've learned here, but it's enough to put me ahead of - just guessing - 95% of the population. I try to explain things I learn here to my co-workers or what have you, and most of the time I get nothing but apathy or blank stares.

Despite all the stress this place induces, I feel I must thank you all for keeping this thread up every day and sharing so much wonderful insight. Never doubt that more of us appreciate your hard work than you may realize!

:wave:

[54anickel]

48. Thanks Progrocker69, especially for trying to share information with

others. The global economics are so very hard to grasp. I learn more about it everyday, but sadly I am far from having any expertise, I don't think I've even reached the level of novice yet.

I get the same deer caught in the headlights looks when I try to discuss much of what I learn with others. I am usually most disappointed in their complete lack of curiosity and desire to learn about things that are in their best interest. Instead they just continue to drink the kool-aid from the pundits.

I look at the issue of the US$ as a game of Russian Roulette these days. The buck is the gun being held to the temple of the rest of the world as it dangles from a fraying rope above an abyss. There is the risk that there maybe a live bullet in the chamber that represents global economic chaos, and a blank that represents the euro. As the rope continues to fray and you are faced with a certain death falling into the abyss, when do you take the chance on the bullet.

JHMO, of course.

[UpInArms]

43. OUCH! 84.29 now

Last trade 84.29 Change -0.25 (-0.30%)

Settle 84.54 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.42 Previous Close 84.54

High 85.07 Low 84.26

Last tick: 2004-11-05 10:11:43 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

46. now 84.24

Last trade 84.24 Change -0.30 (-0.35%)

Last tick: 2004-11-05 10:25:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

50. Some technical numbers to watch for...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's breakout below monthly support crossing at 84.77. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold however, the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bearish mode and rising signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, monthly support crossing at 83.75 is the next downside target. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 85.94 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

54. 84.20 after "achieving" a low of 84.15 n/t

[UpInArms]

60. 84.10 after "achieving" a low of 84.06 n/t

[UpInArms]

61. 84.03 has been "achieved" ........ n/t

[54anickel]

62. Yuan Expectations Surge Against Dollar

I am snipping the last part fo this article and putting it first, as it is the most important point being made.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041105/china_currency_6.html

snip>

Throughout the presidential campaign, Bush administration officials kept up pressure on Beijing to loosen its currency controls, arguing that by pegging the yuan to the dollar they undervalue Chinese exports by as much as 40 percent, giving manufacturers here an unfair advantage.

Some traders said they believed that with Bush no longer facing election-year pressure on the loss of U.S. jobs to offshore manufacturing and outsourcing, Washington might ease up on those demands.

snip back to the beginning>

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- Expectations for the yuan's future value surged to a seven-month high against the U.S. dollar Friday on speculation that China may be preparing to loosen tight currency controls.
ADVERTISEMENT


Renewed expectations for a revaluation followed state media reports citing senior finance officials suggesting that Beijing may be moving toward more flexibility on exchange rates -- though top officials have repeatedly insisted there will be no major changes in the near future.

A report Thursday in the China Reform Daily -- a newspaper published by Beijing's main economic planning agency, the National Development Reform Commission, cited Guo Shuqing, a vice governor of the central bank, as saying that limited changes in the yuan's value would not unduly disrupt trade.

"Stability doesn't mean not fluctuating," said Guo, who is in charge of the foreign exchange department at the People's Bank of China. But he cautioned: "China also hopes the exchange rate will have a certain fluctuation but will control volatility and crisis."

more...

[UpInArms]

63. 84.01 has been "achieved" ........... n/t

[54anickel]

65. 83.75 looks more "achievable" by the hour. n/t

[UpInArms]

67. 84.08 after "achieving" 83.98 ......

and that 83.75 definitely looks "achievable"!

[UpInArms]

68. 83.99 after "achieving" 83.98 ........WHEE! ...... n/t

[54anickel]

89. I can't help but to repost this one. American Bye - encore.

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37375

A long, long time ago…

I can still remember

How the dollar used to make me smile.

And I knew if I had my chance

I’d sell the currency of France

And, maybe, I’d be happy for awhile.



But all our spending made me shiver

With every T-bill we’d deliver.

Bad news on the doorstep;

I couldn’t take one more step.



I can’t remember if I cried

When I heard our politicians lied

But something touched me deep inside

The day the dollar died.



So bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye

Sold my Chevy at the levee

‘cause my pension ran dry.

Them good old boys were drinkin’ sake to try

Singin’ this’ll be the day that it died

This’ll be the day that it died.



Did you write Whitehouse.gov

Or have you a Yen to fall in love

If Japan will tell you so?

Now, do you believe in oil ‘n coal

Can China fill our import hole

And can we teach them how to grow real slow?



Well I know the country’s fit and trim

‘Cause the jobs are in the Pacific Rim.

We all knew savers lose

Man, I dug not having to choose.

more... :hippie:

[ze_dscherman]

105. Euro hit an all time high today

Today the EUR was up to 1,2937 USD, slightly over the 1,2930 USD it had hit in February. Fred Bergsten expects the Euro to climb over 1,30, and it could soon hit 1,40. Even 1,80 could be possible.

With the * remaining in power, economic policies won't change, so the U.S. deficits have come into the markets focus again.

BTW, this very much hurts European exports. And with the Dollar tanking, look out for the price of oil to soar.

[UpInArms]

35. Crude futures rise, but remain below $50 a barrel (49.21 per bbl)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.4244998843-825813237&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures climbed early Friday but remained under $50 a barrel as traders sized up the results of the U.S. election and this week's domestic inventory reports. Traders also closely watched news on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and its repercussions in the Middle East. December crude is up 45 cents at $49.21 a barrel in New York.

[feminazi]

40. Ozy, UIA...can one of you explain the job growth numbers to me?

is this more smoke and mirrors? didn't we have a lot of reports recently of thousands more people laid off across the country? i'm having problems accepting such a boost in the numbers.

[UpInArms]

42. hi feminazi!

here's the place for the best explanation of those numbers (paupau is great at dissecting these reports)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x960959

[ozymandius]

51. This is a better explaination than I can offer.

Papau has all the good stuff, including seasonal adjustments, that I never factored into my screed.

[ozymandius]

47. Job numbers fluctuate seasonally.

Hiring tends to ramp upward during the holiday hiring season. Same thing happens in the late Spring to early Summer in advance of the travel season.

I have found no mention of what jobs were being filled after perusing the news pages. So I suspect that holiday season hiring is underway. Stores have been dressing up for Christmas during the past six weeks.

Indeed, thousands of more people have been laid off around the country. Just last week, there was a higher than expected increase among first-time applications for unemployment benefits. Large numbers of layoffs followed by today's employment report indicate softness in the job market. There are no steady gains.

Another factor indicative of a soft labor market is the number of jobs created to absorb the number of people entering the work force. Essentially, this is the factor of population growth. We still are not creating enough jobs to employ the number of people who are entering the available labor pool.

Something else to keep in mind is the type of jobs being created. From the latest reports - I cannot tell what types of jobs are being created. Are these only seasonal jobs? Or are these steady full-time jobs with benefits? Or are these steady jobs that barely offer a living wage? I cannot answer that.

Oil is another factor, albeit a psychological one, in the short term. When oil prices go down, businesses feel more confident that more capital is available for hiring instead of other expenses. That sentiment can change on a whim - if oil traders feel that light sweet crude will become a scarcity.

Now, nearing to a close, when we hear trumpets and singing with the release of job numbers we can accept this as some form of pshychological affectation. As if to say: "See, our policies are working!"

I recall in March of 2004 when Bush proudly announced that 20,000 new jobs were created. Those were representative of government jobs. No private sector jobs were created. This fanfare was a calculated psychological effect.

So, in sum, to guage the honest effect of job creation versus job elimination - one has to ascertain the numbers on a large scale. Weekly numbers do not tell the whole picture. Which, to this point, explains why the U.S. has lost almost a million jobs on Bush's watch (down from a height of 2.5 million jobs after 9/11).

I hope this helps. There's so much to consider when assessing our overall employment health.

[feminazi]

82. thanks to you both

i'll check out papau's info too.

:)

[54anickel]

41. Global: A Different America (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041104-thu.html#anchor0

America has spoken. And while the election outcome was close, the verdict was decisive. The recent past could well be prologue for what now lies ahead. Moreover, given Republican gains in the House and the Senate, a second Bush Administration will have a much better chance of converting its activist policy agenda into action. From my perch as an economist, there is a deeper meaning to all this. A very different America has emerged that will put new pressures on itself and on the broader global economy. This will likely have profound and lasting implications for world financial markets.

Since September 11, 2001, Bush Administration policies have been increasingly ideologically driven. That’s true of foreign policy and economic policy, alike. The election outcome points to more of the same. With respect to the US economy, that offers little chance of a traditional about-face on fiscal policy. Instead, under the guise of tax reform, temporary tax cuts are likely to become permanent. On the spending side of the equation, ongoing expansion of outlays for defense and homeland security are likely to swamp any cosmetic reductions in the nondiscretionary components of government expenditures. In that context, federal budget deficits of at least 3% of GDP are likely for as far as the eye can see. For a US economy that is lacking in private saving, this implies a chronic shortfall of overall domestic saving. And that, of course, spells an equally chronic US current-account deficit problem and all of its associated stresses and strains -- namely, foreign financing imperatives, dollar risks, and protectionist perils.

The only hope for meaningful relief from such daunting imbalances is for the US to grow its way out of this mess. This, of course, would be consistent with one of the basic tenets of supply-side economics -- the so-called self-financing nature of reductions in marginal tax rates. And that takes us squarely to what I believe will be the centerpiece of the economic strategy of a second Bush Administration: Courtesy of the election outcome, I see a new pro-growth consensus emerging in Washington. This will come to be seen as the only means by which the US can finesse its imbalances -- fiscal, current account, debt, and saving. But the next Bush Administration can’t pull this off alone. At home, it will need the cooperation of the Federal Reserve and, overseas, it will need the support of politicians, other policy makers, and major central banks.

All this spells the possibility of a world that is about to up the ante on the US-centric global growth paradigm that has now been in place since the mid-1990s. And that raises the most important question of all: Is this gambit likely to work? In examining the feasibility of such an approach, it pays to ponder what it would take for America and the world to deliver another several years of US-centric global growth. As I see it, there are three key requirements for the world to execute such a strategy:

more...

[UpInArms]

45. U.S. ECRI weekly leading index falls 1.4% (14 weeks of falling numbers)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.441207037-825815011&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday its leading gauge of U.S. economic activity failed to grow for the 14th straight week, falling 1.4 percent after dropping 1.5 percent the week before. The leading index has fallen for 10 straight weeks and is showing faltering momentum in U.S. growth rate, but is not yet signaling negative growth.

[54anickel]

49. Why is this report always hidden from the mass media like some sort

of bastard child? I know I've asked that before, more of a rhetorical question I guess.

[DUreader]

58. hidden from the media? Do you mean hidden BY the media?

[54anickel]

59. Heh-heh, yes. Thank you. Poor choice of wording on my part. n/t

[UpInArms]

52. (SEC) Donaldson hedges retirement talk

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B44F6B608%2DF939%2D4DE2%2D8A7D%2D02EDE4DB9B32%7D&siteid=mktw

BOCA RATON, Fla. (CBS.MW) - Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson said he's pleased with the work being done by the commission, but when asked directly if he will step down said "stay tuned."

The SEC chairman, speaking to reporters following his speech before the Securities Industry Association annual meeting, answered speculation he would step down following President Bush's reelection earlier this week.

"I serve at the pleasure of the president, but I also serve at my own pleasure," he said. "I believe there are a number of things we are working on and I think we are accomplishing those things, that's pleasing."

Among the names mentioned as successors to Donaldson are current commissioner Paul Atkins, enforcement chief Stephen Cutler and James Doty former SEC general counsel James Doty.

Donaldson, was nominated for the post in 2002 following the controversial administration of Harvey Pitt, has overseen the most active regulatory period since the commission was formed in the early 1930s.

...more...

James Doty!

And for those who say "who's that" - a little history lesson:

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=20020722&s=leopold20020718

excerpt:

On November 1, 1986, Bush acquired 212,152 shares of Harken as a result of the merger of his failing oil company--Spectrum 7--with Harken, but did not report the transaction with the SEC until April 7, 1987, more than twelve weeks after the deadline. On December 10, 1986, Bush purchased another 80,000 shares in Harken and again missed the deadline for reporting the transaction by eight weeks, according to SEC documents. Dan Bartlett, the White House communications director, was unable to answer why President Bush missed the deadline in reporting his stock transactions with the SEC on three other occasions, but said that the SEC obviously did not see the violation as an important matter either. "The SEC didn't do anything about it," Bartlett said. "It does not appear to be an important issue."

John Heine, a spokesman for the SEC, said the agency has never prosecuted anyone for missing the deadline to file insider-transaction forms with the agency. In fact, Heine said, insiders routinely miss the deadline. "It's something we're starting to crack down on," Heine said. Bush was investigated by the SEC for insider trading, but the probe ended in 1993 without any charges being filed against the President. Democrats, including former Texas Governor Ann Richards, have charged that the investigation was a whitewash because of Bush's political relationships.

Bruce Hiler, the associate director of the SEC's enforcement division, who wrote a letter to Bush's attorney saying the investigation was being terminated, now represents former Enron president Jeff Skilling in matters before the government. Richard Breeden, the SEC chairman at the time, was deputy counsel to Bush's father when he was Vice President and was appointed SEC chairman when H.W. Bush became President. James Doty, the SEC's general counsel at the time, helped W. Bush negotiate the contract to buy the Texas Rangers. Bush used the proceeds of his sale of Harken stock in 1990 to pay off a loan he took out for a minority stake in the baseball team. Doty has said that he recused himself from the SEC's two-year probe into Bush's sale of Harken stock.

...lots more...

[TrogL]

53. Loonie Watch

(added some blather)

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-10-04 Monday, October 4 0.785793 USD
2004-10-05 Tuesday, October 5 0.792079 USD
2004-10-06 Wednesday, October 6 0.794155 USD
2004-10-07 Thursday, October 7 0.795102 USD
2004-10-08 Friday, October 8 0.799233 USD
2004-10-12 Tuesday, October 12 0.795229 USD
2004-10-13 Wednesday, October 13 0.791139 USD
2004-10-14 Thursday, October 14 0.798212 USD
2004-10-15 Friday, October 15 0.798722 USD
2004-10-18 Monday, October 18 0.796813 USD
2004-10-19 Tuesday, October 19 0.797321 USD
2004-10-20 Wednesday, October 20 0.804376 USD
2004-10-21 Thursday, October 21 0.804764 USD
2004-10-22 Friday, October 22 0.80782 USD
2004-10-25 Monday, October 25 0.817528 USD
2004-10-26 Tuesday, October 26 0.816593 USD
2004-10-27 Wednesday, October 27 0.816127 USD
2004-10-28 Thursday, October 28 0.820075 USD
2004-10-29 Friday, October 29 0.819068 USD
2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD






OK, so we're lookin' at an 83 cent loonie. That's just plain crazy.

CBC Radio 1 ran a long analysis of the Chinese economy and how it effects the United States and Canada. With Canada's resource and technology based economy, things bode well as long as Canada makes sure its technology gets bought along with the oil and whatever else China wants (maybe we can sell them some beef and softwood lumber).

The problem is, they've got all these greenbacks and if they see the greenback going south (pun intended) they're gonna want to spend them on something. If they want to spend it in Canada, I've no objection as long as its an interdependent relationship.

Other news:

Of course Dubya's election has been front page news with a majority of pundits (at least in the redneck area where I live) saying it's good for Canada - and they may have a point.

Daschle was the major opponent to re-opening the border to Canadian beef. With him gone, maybe there's a better chance. Certainly it's a bone Dubya could throw us. Personally I dunno.

I keep a copy of my original loonie watch to cut and paste from. The last line of my original reads "Edmonton, Alberta won the new Dell call support centre which will support 500 jobs". I see this kind of thing continuing. I don't see Dubya closing the tax loophole. I have to deal with some of the Indian tech people attempting to use a software product I'm involved with and I am frankly NOT impressed with their level of expertise. Many people within the United States resent talking to someone with a "foreign" accent - and Canadian accents are close enough to US Midwest to pass muster, so I see a continuation of the trend of Canadian call centres for US products.

The other factor in yesterday's Canadian news was Paul Martin's support for missile defence. Many people here are against it for perfectly admirable reasons. I'm not. Here's why.

• It's coming anyway for better or worse.
  
• Canada has had a long history of defence cooperation with the US. Remember the Dew Line.
  
• There's lots and lots and lots of money to be made. Those contracts has to go somewhere. We've got the expertise.
  
• Martin is a businessman. I trust him to get Canada a good deal - a piece of the pie. We need that pie. I like pie. (sorry, I'm rambling incoherently)
  

I'll post today's loonie numbers when they come up (usually in a couple of hours).

(on edit)

Oh Lord.

Check this out. (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's breakout above the 75% retracement level of the 1991-2002 decline crossing at .8260. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If December extends this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .8456 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .8087 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

He's calling for an 84+ cent loonie. I'm looking at his chart right now (9:30 a.m. MST) and it's exceeded y = x*x. My off the top of my head analysis is something really good's happening to the loonie about the same time as some thing really really bad is happening to the greenback. Are people stampeding from the greenback to a "safe" currency?

[54anickel]

92. The loonie rates as a commodity currency so, yes, it is now considered

a safe bet along with Australia, New Zealand, etc. Then there's the Swiss franc - listed as a flight to safety currency.

So, any good job opening up there for a computer hardware R&D engineer? ;-)

[UNIXcock]

55. If todays job reports are accurate, it's a bit of good news

... I just wish the rate of employment would increase faster

[UpInArms]

56. Euro probes record-high territory

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.46687375-825817757&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The euro briefly crossed into uncharted territory during U.S. trading, reaching a high of $1.2935 and taking out the former all-time high of $1.2927 reached in February. It was more recently back to $1.2911, up 0.3 percent on the dollar from Thursday. The dollar got a brief respite after a strong U.S. jobs report Friday morning. But emphasis returned to U.S. deficits. Strong central bank and hedge fund buying were said to be behind the euro's move.

[Carolinian]

69. I love this thread. Can we also have an update on the deficit &

casualties?

[UpInArms]

70. Hi Carolina Girl NC! Here are your numbers

Debt



The estimated population of the United States is 294,719,359
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,295.74.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.67 billion per day since September 30, 2003

Deficits

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2269506

October 21, 2004

Earlier this month, Washington announced a record 2004 budget deficit of $413 billion, while the trade deficit in August surged to $54 billion, the second biggest in history.

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. has a Trade Deficit
For the month of August 2004

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/top/dst/2004/08/deficit.html

Year To Date
Deficit in Deficit in
Millions Millions
Country Name of U.S. $ of U.S. $

China -15,386.36 -98,786.61
Canada -6,635.57 -45,146.01
Japan -6,438.78 -49,100.11
Federal Republic of Germany -3,896.19 -29,903.73
Mexico -3,727.38 -29,549.23
Ireland -2,082.97 -14,061.47
Saudi Arabia -1,884.22 -9,142.44
Malaysia -1,753.63 -10,814.75
Italy -1,725.76 -11,680.49
Venezuela -1,708.30 -12,963.14

Casualties:

http://icasualties.org/oif/

Total US Military Casualties - 1128

[54anickel]

71. Floyd Norris: What now for U.S. tax policy?

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/04/business/norris5.html

Twenty years ago, running against Ronald Reagan, a Republican incumbent who had slashed taxes and sent the budget deficit soaring, Walter Mondale offered a prediction: "Mr. Reagan will raise taxes, and so will I," he said as he accepted the Democratic nomination. "He won't tell you. I just did".

snip>

.
By that standard, the Bush tax cuts have featured some reforms, which is not to say that everyone thinks they are wise. One is the concept that money earned by work should be taxed at substantially higher levels than money earned through investments. Another is the belief that while income should be taxed, wealth should not.
.
In his first term, Bush showed himself to be a master of cutting taxes, but his administration did not prove nearly as adept at the minutiae of changing tax laws. In the Reagan administration, the Treasury produced a detailed proposal that became the basis of the 1986 tax act, which the administration managed to largely protect from lobbyists seeking exemptions for their special interests. In the process, it also helped the economy by no longer diverting capital to industries that offered big tax benefits without much other economic rationale.
.
But the Bush Treasury has never seemed to have the same authority. For this year's tax bill, it largely stayed on the sidelines, and Congress passed and Bush signed a bill laden with breaks for assorted industries and others with the ear of a powerful legislator. The Reagan 1986 tax act had abolished the deduction for state sales taxes. Now it is back, but only for two years - a longer period would have cost too much, in the artificial budget arithmetic now practiced - and only for those in states without high state income taxes.

more...Sorry about the saint Ronnie tone

[54anickel]

72. Grantham, Gross Gloomy Over Troubles and Bubbles

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_currier&sid=aXh_w8JRj3G4

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Here's a handy way for optimistic investors to test the strength of their convictions:

Spend an hour or two perusing the latest comments of two widely respected money managers, Jeremy Grantham and Bill Gross.

Gross's views are so glum he himself speaks of them as ``the economics of despair.'' Grantham says the history of investment ``bubbles'' argues for a drop of about 35 percent in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, on top of the 40 percent slide already endured in 2000-02.

``Asia has hollowed out our manufacturing base and is now making inroads into services,'' says Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, where he oversees $415 billion including the biggest bond mutual fund. ``We can't really educate or innovate our way out of this.''

In the circumstances, Gross says (at http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late +Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO_ N ov_04.htm), the Federal Reserve will have to hold interest rates very low. ``While that keeps the patient/economy breathing, it leads to asset bubbles, potential inflation, and a declining currency over time,'' he says.

Grantham, chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., a Boston-based manager of $66 billion in mostly institutional money, says ``the current U.S. equity bubble'' is the 28th he found combing through the history of currency, commodity and stock markets ( http://www.gmo.com , registration required).

Painful Pattern

more...

[UpInArms]

73. Dollar pierces record low against euro

U.S. payrolls gain offers only brief relief for U.S. currency

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBBE8B086%2DFB80%2D4ABB%2D8967%2DC97382BDB075%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar tumbled to uncharted territory against the euro on Friday, as U.S. deficit concerns nullified a positive October jobs report.

At midday, the dollar was down 0.4 percent against the euro when compared to late U.S. trading Thursday; one euro was worth $1.2925.

The euro was as high as $1.2952, taking out the previous all-time high of $1.2927 reached in February. The euro had fallen to $1.2783 after the latest jobs report revealed October payrolls gains more than doubled forecasts.

"The gives the Federal Reserve the green light to keep hiking U.S. rates, but that didn't help the dollar for more than 10 minutes," said Jamie Coleman, managing analyst with IRF Forex Watch.

Higher U.S. interest rates would presumably encourage foreign buying of U.S assets, helping the United States to finance its record trade shortfall.

The dollar fell this week as President Bush's return to the White House is seen doing little in the near term to reverse the record U.S. trade and budget deficits that have driven the dollar lower against its rivals. The dollar has broadly declined during Bush's first four years in office.

"The dollar continued to be under pressure amid worries about the U.S. twin deficits," said Kikuko Takeda, manager of the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo.

<snip>

Although currency traders said they were mostly surprised that the dollar didn't benefit more from a sharp rise in U.S. payrolls, they said the euro's rally was given new life on Friday because buying interest is spread over several major contributors.

This includes ongoing leveraged accounts, hedge funds and in general, longer-term bullish euro positioning, said analysts at Action Economics. Other traders said Asian central banks were believed to be buyers of the euro as they hedge against what many predict to be further dollar weakness in coming months posed by record U.S. trade and budget deficits.

And many traders reported buying of euros by Middle Eastern accounts over the past few days. Oil-related profits are apparently being turned into euros, in part as OPEC concerns pay off European debt accumulated during the 1990s when oil was cheaper.

...more...

[UpInArms]

76. Update 7: Dollar Hits All-Time Low Against Euro

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/11/05/ap1636900.html

The U.S. dollar hit an all-time low against the euro Friday, shrugging off positive U.S. employment data and falling on worries about oil prices and concern over the U.S. budget deficit.

The dollar had rallied a bit earlier in the day, with the euro briefly dropping below $1.28 after the U.S. Labor Department reported that employers aggressively hired new workers in October, adding 337,000 people to their payrolls.

But the U.S. currency resumed its downward trend, and later in the day the euro reached a new high of $1.2950. It had reached its previous peak of $1.2927 in February.

Oil prices, which remain relatively high despite a more than 10 percent pullback in recent days, have raised doubts about the strength of the U.S. economy, adding new concerns on top of high U.S. trade and budget deficits, factors that have weighed on the dollar for months.

Economists say sentiment has turned so strongly against the dollar that positive news about the U.S. economy has little impact on its slide.

...more...

[54anickel]

79. Heh-heh, hang onto your shorts! It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Commerzbank analyst Christoph Balz said he expected to see the euro rise as high as $1.31 but to settle lower in the long term.

"The U.S. economy is stronger than people think, which will lead to higher interest rates and make the dollar more attractive," he said.

Get out of debt! IMO this is telling Snow no Plaza Accord 2 arrangement unless you meet us half-way by raising rates.

French President Jacques Chirac said Friday he was "a little bit worried about the weakness of the dollar" and how it could affect European exports and the economy. He hinted that the European Union should take action.

"This should provoke certain reactions on our part," Chirac added. He declined to elaborate.

And the Repugs answer, "What does he know - He's FRENCH!"

[UpInArms]

74. 1:02 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,386.51 +71.75 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,035.91 +12.28 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,166.18 +4.51 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.212% +0.144

NYSE Volume 1,007,149,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,144,267,000

1:00 ET Market continues to climb and approaches the upper end of the day's trading range... Despite the fact that a few noteworthy sectors have been weak (namely financial), most industry groups have found buyers and have maintained their earlier gains... One group that has been persistently on the defensive, though, has been internet... UBS initiated Google (GOOG 171.08 -13.26) with a Reduce rating and $160 price target, along with Yahoo! (YHOO 36.23 -1.23)... The firm started coverage of that stock with a Neutral rating and a $37 price target... The neutral-to-bearish initiations have prompted profit-taking in the high-flying internet space... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1624/1668. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1667/1320.

12:30PM: Sellers have eased off their recent efforts, as major indices stabilize at current levels... But on the Big Board, Altria (MO 54.05, -0.33%) continues to relinquish the more than the 8.5% it gained yesterday following news management may split the company into 2-3 separate entities... Some of the sell off appears to be tied to a battle lost by tobacco companies this morning in which big tobacco was trying to overturn new restrictions on advertising in places where cigarettes are sold in the U.K....

Trading lower in sympathy are Reynolds American (RAI 70.67, -0.67%) and British American Tobacco (BTI 31.38, 0.48%)NYSE Adv/Dec 1556/1706, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1591/1352

12:00PM: The market has climbed higher thanks to a strong October employment report this morning, although gains have been kept in check in light of the indices' winning streak since mid-Oct... The S&P 500, for one, has surged 6% in the past 2 weeks as investors have looked past the Q3 (Sept) earnings season and the recent election... Buying on the bullish jobs data has thus been restrained - particularly as the S&P 500 set new yearly highs in the early action... Still, the mood of trading has been positive with nonfarm payrolls exceeding even the highest forecast in the consensus estimate...

The economy added 337K jobs in October (consensus of 175K) as every sector (except for manufacturing, which declined 5K) showed growth... The average work week held steady at 33.8 hours (consensus of 33.8) and average hourly earnings increased 0.1 to 0.3% (consensus of 0.3%) - the latter generally a precursor to hiring... The unemployment rate did rise to 5.5% (consensus of 5.4%), but this was really only a 0.03% uptick as the figure stood at 5.43% in September...

[54anickel]

75. Bush wins! Happy days ahead?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_110504.html

snip>

While the Bush victory is assured we did see a web page that was documenting huge instances of problems at voting polls. Amongst them were voter intimidation, machine malfunctions, voter challenges to eligibility, registration errors, and police called at polls, vote suppression and in states that used the no paper trail computers, exit polls did not agree with the final results whereas where paper trails existed exit polls and results agreed. All of this ensures that the divide that existed in America prior to this election may indeed be deeper after the election.

With the markets up after the election we are over resistance zones of 2000 on the NASDAQ and 1140 on the S&P 500. Can it hold? As the markets progressed during the day the highs at the open soon started to seem a long ways away. Still well below its highs is the Dow Jones Industrials. The bulls rationalize this as demonstrating how strong the market is. We are concerned when the blue chips are lagging the speculative stocks of the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 that something is seriously amiss. But with the Bush victory everyone believes that we are going to see a continuance of low interest rates, huge government spending (primarily on defence) and encouraging consumers to keep spending and getting deeper in debt. That it is a recipe for a future disaster seems to be lost in the happiness generated by a rising market.

But the problems that were there before November 2 remain afterwards. The economy that was showing signs of slowing continues to show signs that it is sluggish at best and threatening to come off the rails at worst. The US Dollar as a result is sure to go down. The Bush administration does not have a strong US dollar policy. A painful adjustment for America and the world is about to get underway. We doubt that the stock or bond market can withstand a serious decline in the US Dollar. Right now the expectation that the stock market is going higher seems to be almost universal. Sentiment remains very high and the VIX volatility sentiment indicator remains near record low territory. So the impetus or buying power to propel the market higher is very suspect. With a declining US dollar it should be almost impossible.

snip lots of good stuff>

The Bush administration is back for another four years. While as we noted at the outset that is good for oil, business, drug companies, tax cuts and deficit spending it will also mean a probable expansion of the war possibly to Iran or North Korea but more likely Iran. And as well the insolvable Israeli/Palestinian conflict will probably get worse. As well we expect the economy to continue to be sluggish if not fall into recession and the deficits to get worse not better. It should bring on a debt crisis especially for the US consumer.

Finally second terms are rarely as good as the first term. Nixon had Watergate, Reagan had Iran Gate and Clinton had Monica Gate. The markets suffered through Watergate, treaded water including the crash of 1987 during Iran Gate and only under Monica Gate did the markets not care (it was only sex after all) and soared.

The first term of Bush brought a 42% decline in the NASDAQ, a 20% decline in the S&P 500, a 6% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials and a 26% decline in the US$ but a 54% increase in oil prices and a 60% jump in gold prices.

Happy days ahead? We don't think so. But if you are an oil and gold bull "Bring him on."

[54anickel]

77. From cells to bells, 10 things the Chinese do far better than we do

Interesting, sounds like a great place to visit! Maybe this hints to what our future will be like - we'll be the ones with the service jobs.

Whoosh!!!

http://aolnetscape.workopolis.com/servlet/Content/qprinter/20041023/CHINATEN23

BEIJING -- Ah, those clever Chinese. First they invent gunpowder and a few other essentials of modern civilization. Now they're gunning their economic engines. Yet who would have thought that, after a millennium of poverty, they'd already do so many things better than we?

In fact, compiling a Top 10 list of what China does better than Canada isn't easy. There are so many items. To whittle it down, let's assume it's unfair to count anything related to cheap labour.

So we won't include the wonderfully thorough mop-ups of supermarket spills: The staff don't plunk down those yellow you-can't-sue-us caution signs. They actually fan the floor with a broken sheet of Styrofoam until it is dry.

Nor will we mention the exquisite, free head-and-shoulder massages that come with every shampoo and haircut.

And we will only sigh with envy over bicycle couriers speeding theatre tickets to you the same day -- free.

Frequent travellers will love this one: Even remote rural hotels in China, not previously known for world-beating hygiene, now routinely slip blankets, quilts and coverlets into freshly laundered duvet covers. No more puffy bedspreads and nasty polyester blankets that cover guest after guest without being cleaned, which is still the practice in most of our hotel chains.

Considering how cheap labour is, it's astonishing that so many Chinese facilities offer free automated lockers now, the way European airports and train stations do. No more old-fashioned keys to form a lump in your pocket -- just a slip of paper with a randomly chosen number that lets you retrieve your belongings. Stores like them because they cut shoplifting; customers like them because they reduce schlepping.

much more...

[UpInArms]

78. Highest Gold Closing since 1988

1:16pm 11/05/04 DEC GOLD UP $3.30 AT $434.10 IN LATE NY TRADE

1:16pm 11/05/04 GOLD FUTURES POISED FOR HIGHEST CLOSE SINCE 1988

[54anickel]

80. Ya know, I was holding out for one more blue-light special. Damned!!!

Still hoping for another sale to come up again. B-)

The silver chart is showing a healthy, steady as she goes climb as well. Nothing "parabolic" looking in PM either so far.

Have to watch for a sale coming on in both.

[54anickel]

81. $80 Oil, Here We Come!!!

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/1104.html

In January of this year, I put together an article that appeared in the February issue that laid out the case for and against $50 oil. While the arguments against $50 oil have been thoroughly discredited, most market observers still do not understand that the price of oil will continue to head much higher. In this issue, I will examine several of the reasons why the price of oil will not significantly pull back from today’s levels and is likely to reach the $80 mark within the next 24 months.

At the foundation of many oil analysts’ argument for lower oil prices is the belief that OPEC can control the price of oil and use its spare capacity to keep the price within acceptable limits. There is one main reason this line of thinking is not valid -- OPEC has no spare capacity whatsoever. OPEC, or more specifically Saudi Arabia, has given several indications over the past two years that it will increase production to keep oil prices at palatable levels, yet we continue to see oil prices reach new highs.

I believe OPEC’s ability to increase prices is a geological impossibility since Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field is dying. Ghawar, the world’s largest oil field, produces approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day and has been on production since 1951. Due to the outstanding work of Matt Simmons, the world has become increasingly aware of the high water cuts at Ghawar and several other large fields in Saudi Arabia. According to Mr. Simmons, the use extensive of water injection wells has provided an illusion of stable production at Ghawar and elsewhere. Water injection wells are designed to push the oil column to the producing well bores and keep reservoir pressure high. However, as the amount of water produced along with oil increases, production often heads into a steep decline. High water cuts at Ghawar (7 million barrels of water a day according to Simmons) are a clear indication that the world’s largest field is about to head into a steep and irreversible decline.

Without spare capacity and with several members experiencing steep production declines, OPEC is no longer a cartel. It has morphed into an extremely exclusive social club. Many market observers are about to wake up to the reality that making pronouncements of more supply coming online at some future date will no longer push oil prices down, even temporarily.

In past years, when there was excess production capacity both inside and outside of OPEC, high prices always brought additional supply onto the market. Times have changed and many analysts have failed to recognize it. Now that the world has reached the apex of Hubbert’s Peak (the thesis that once half of a petroleum producing region’s reserves have been extracted, that region’s oil production will peak and decline along a bell shaped curve), the world’s supply of oil will go down irrespective of price. This is an extremely bullish situation for the price of oil.

more...

[UpInArms]

83. North American Vehicle Production Down - Price of Crude Up ($49.30 bbl)

2:05pm 11/05/04 N.A. WEEKLY VEHICLE PRODUCTION 303,130 UNITS - WARD'S

2:05pm 11/05/04 N.A. WEEKLY VEHICLE PRODUCTION DOWN 12.1% - WARD'S

2:04pm 11/05/04 DEC CRUDE UP 48C AT $49.30 IN LAST HALF HR OF NY TRADE

[54anickel]

85. GM Seen Continuing Aggressive Incentives

http://www.forbes.com/home/markets/2004/11/04/1104automarketscan09.html

Aggressive sales programs launched in September have yielded strong October results for U.S. automakers with more deals expected by the end of the year, Merrill Lynch said. "October was a solid month, driven by continued aggressive incentive programs," it said. "We expect original equipment manufacturers, particularly General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), to continue to fight for market share through year-end with continued aggressive incentives." The research firm expects GM to announce further sales deals in December. In addition, Merrill Lynch said flagging car sales at Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) have "likely bottomed out" and projects sales to pick up following the September launch of the Five Hundred car model. "The aggressive sales programs launched in late September, and maintained through October, clearly helped drive down 2004 model year inventories," it said. "At the end of October, 2004-model year inventories represented only 20% and 28% of Ford and GM’s inventories, respectively. Unfortunately, full ramp up of 2005 model-year production has kept overall inventories at relatively high levels."

[54anickel]

86. GM, Ford Lose Ground to Importers

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-autos4nov04,1,1122204.story?coll=la-headlines-business

The nation's two largest automakers each said Wednesday that demand for new vehicles fell last month, as Japanese rivals Toyota, Honda and Nissan rode a slew of new products to double-digit sales growth.

Industrywide, U.S. sales rose 2% in October from a year earlier, according to sales tracker Autodata Corp.

snip>

Many analysts' predictions for October were right on the mark. They expected sales to cool in October after climbing to the second-highest level of 2004 in September, but they said Detroit automakers, not foreign brands, would account for most of the decline.

more...

[54anickel]

87. Toyota, Nissan, Honda Lead Asians to Peak U.S. Share

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aMw68HH9BljE&refer=japan

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. led Asian automakers to a record share of the U.S. market in October as improved quality and fuel efficiency bolstered demand for their newest car and light-truck models.

Toyota, Japan's largest automaker, said demand for its Prius gasoline-electric car helped boost sales 13 percent from last year. Nissan, maker of the Titan pickup truck, had a 27 percent gain. Honda Motor Co.'s sales rose 10 percent and Hyundai Motor Co. had a 15 percent gain. Asian carmakers' market share rose to 35.9 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai Motor won record market share in the world's largest vehicles market because of their dominance in quality surveys. Vehicles like the Prius, with better fuel efficiency ratings, also drew buyers as gasoline prices surged.

Toyota ``just keeps working,'' said James Moffett, who holds the carmaker's shares among the $1.02 billion of funds he manages for Kansas City-based UMB Bank NA. ``Their continued growth prospects look to be the best in the industry.''

Combined sales for Japanese and Korean companies rose 13 percent to 479,601 units and pushed overall U.S. sales up 2.2 percent to 1.33 million vehicles. Sales of Asian brands rose 6.3 percent through October to 4.88 million units, with a record 34.5 percent market share in the first 10 months of 2004.

more...

[UpInArms]

88. 2:32 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,369.77 +55.01 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,028.40 +4.77 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,163.21 +1.54 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% +0.120

NYSE Volume 1,267,940,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,416,886,000

2:30 ET Market remains awash in the green as the tech sector remains strong... The group is poised to finished as one of the best performers this week, due in part to Nvidia's (NVDA 17.63 +2.22) well-received Q3 (Oct) report last night... The major indices, in general, is set to finish with solid gains for the second week in a row... Last week's rally was more a relief bounce off the early fall's losses, whereas this week's advance has come following several positive developments... The Presidential election took place without incident - with a victor declared in less than 24 hours - and the economic data of the last part of the week (Oct ISM Services, weekly initial claims, Oct employment report) came in better than expected... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1623/1722. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1664/1352.

2:00PM: Stocks continue to fluctuate around the unchanged mark in the mid afternoon stretch... The October employment report continues to inspire buying interest by putting an end to 'jobless recovery' talk... The economy, in fact, is still expanding with advanced Q3 (Sept) GDP coming in at 3.7% - better than Q2 at 3.2%... Q4 GDP is expected to accelerate even more, to 4.0%... Earnings forecasts are similarly upbeat, with aggregate S&P 500 forecasts pegged at 15%...

Even though earnings growth is expected to slow some in 2005, Briefing.com continues to believe there is upside for stocks if momentum in 2004 continues... NYSE Adv/Dec 1671/1668, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1675/1326

[UpInArms]

93. Treasurys tumble; yields close near 4-week high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.6402149074-825835742&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys plunged, sending benchmark yields to 1-month highs, after unexpectedly strong jobs data bolstered the view that multiple interest-rate hikes are likely in store this year. The 10-year note closed 31/32 off, at 100 15/32. Its yield ($TNX) climbed to a four-week high of 4.19 percent.

[54anickel]

94. Heh, so what happens if they get too far ahead of Greenspin?

[UpInArms]

95. just a guess here

but I would say that the meanspin SOB will try to jam them by not raising rates at all.

[54anickel]

96. A stand-off of some sort? If he doesn't raise them, the US$ would

surely take a dive, wouldn't it? Don't they have to rise sooner or later to atract foreign investors? The CBs can't continue to be the main purchasers of our debt for very long. :shrug:

[54anickel]

97. Home Values Built on Rotten Foundations

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37480

We have been gleaning facts “brick by brick” in order to write this story on the housing market and what it all means for Wall Street and the economy. The story is simple: While the Federal Reserve is slowly raising interest rates, it is our observation that the housing price bubble is already bursting of its own accord.

Let me begin with the sale of a property located a short distance away from our modest casa in Palm Beach, where the big houses have names. Casa Apava, an estate with ocean and lakefront land totaling 18 acres, is under contract for about $70 Million by its current owner, Ronald Perelman. This same property sold for $14.25 Million in 1987. If the sale goes through, it will be the largest residential real estate sale in United States’ history. (In 2004, the property was assessed for $33.4 Million and taxes were a modest $664,000 a year, or $55,333 a month). Needless to say, the buyer is reported to be the chairman of NVR, Inc., the nation’s eighth largest home builder. Clearly, selling homes at inflated prices to average Americans, who bought them using other people’s money, has paid off handsomely for this buyer.

The size of the housing bubble should not be underestimated. In middle America, housing prices are up 44 percent over the past 5 years while in the momentum markets, such as Las Vegas and Southern California, annual “price pops” of 20 to 40 percent have commonly been recorded until just recently. Housing is big business. In 2004, about 8 million new and used homes will sell with a total transaction value of $1.9 to $2 Trillion. Mortgage debt will rise about $800 billion to $7.5 Trillion by the end of this year. The increase in mortgage debt represents the spending that the Bush Administration needed to keep a $12 Trillion economy moving forward.

The good news is that home ownership rose 2 percent to an all time record of 67.2; the bad news is what had to be done to get it there while the labor force participation rate has dropped 2 percent! In other words, easy credit and record low interest rates have boosted home sales. In previous economic cycles, the boost to home sales came from rising incomes and more jobs!

more...

[UpInArms]

98. Some last minute bailing out of the dollar going on? 83.92

Last trade 83.92 Change -0.54 (-0.64%)

Settle 84.54 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.42 Previous Close 84.54

High 85.07 Low 83.91

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-05 15:33:29 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

99. What? I just checked a few minutes ago and it was 84.00 Nobody

wants to be caught holdin' the buck over the weekend. :scared:

We've seen this in stocks many times, but this is the first time I have seen it in the US$.

[54anickel]

100. 83.88!!! What happens when it hits the tech 83.75?

[UpInArms]

102. back to 83.90 - on the technical

83.75 - my thoughts would lean toward the *Co expecting the BoJ to come in and save their ass or perhaps they just don't care now that they have "won" 4 more years.

BoJ hasn't even tried to "talk" the dollar up and has made no move that I can say is even covertly visible in this downward trend.

[54anickel]

103. Shrub don't care. As the article earlier stated, he doesn't have to

worry about re-election. He'll let that baby drop. What better way to cut the debt in half than to have it loose 1/2 it value.
Too bad, he won't be able to stop it from dropping further than he'd like it too. There is no good will left in the world toward him or the US in general. They'll buoy the buck while it suits them as they finish putting the contingency plan in action.

[54anickel]

101. Closing numbers

Dow 10,387.54 +72.78 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 2,038.94 +15.31 (+0.76%)
S&P 500 1,166.17 +4.50 (+0.39%)
10-yr Bond 4.186% +0.118
30-yr Bond 4.909% +0.097
NYSE Volume 1,728,801,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,900,013,000

3:30PM: Buyers remain an active bunch as the indices have not budged much over the afternoon... September Consumer Credit was released at the top of the hour and showed an increase to $9.8 bln (consensus of $7.0 bln)... The release is generally not market-moving, but September's increase puts year/year growth at 5.8%... Today's events, in general, have provided the market with considerable direction, and next week, the same will probably hold true...
The FOMC is meeting on Wednesday, Cisco (CSCO 19.99 +0.47) is reporting after Tuesday's close, and Dell (DELL 37.42 +0.61) is reporting after Thursday's close... There will also be earnings reports from at least 17 retailers... For more insight into next week's events, be sure to visit Briefing.com's Looking Ahead column...NYSE Adv/Dec 1526/1834, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1623/1433

3:00PM: Major indices remain positive but have leveled off after fully digesting this morning's payroll surprise... Speaking of revelations, several retailers are catching a bid this afternoon... The biggest gainer on the day is Sears, Roebuck & Co (S 48.20 +29.6%), an operator of more than 900 full-line stores, which was recently upgraded by Goldman Sachs and Prudential... Evidence that Real Estate Investment Trust Vornado Realty (VNO 68.50 -1.1%) took a 4.3% stake in the 118-year-old retailer seems to have re-ignited speculation surrounding the embedded value in a number of retailers...NYSE Adv/Dec 1524/1841, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1567/1496

[UpInArms]

104. closing blather

briefing.com

Close: The October employment report served up gains in stocks today as nonfarm payrolls showed its largest increase since March... The economy added 337K (consensus of 175K) jobs in October, and September and August nonfarm payrolls were revised 113K higher... Average hourly earnings also moved higher - to 0.3% (consensus of 0.3%) - in a sign that the labor market was strengthening as a whole... Average work week also held steady at 33.8 hours (consensus of 33.8) and the unemployment rate increased a slim 0.03% to 5.46% (consensus of 5.5%)...

Inspired by the strong economic data, buyers sent stocks substantially higher in the opening minutes and the indices (although choppy throughout the day) managed to close near those levels - the S&P 500 finishing above its previous high for the year... Economically-sensitive sectors, such as retail, airline, and technology, spearheaded the market's climb... Retail itself benefited from Sears' (S 45.89 +8.71) announcement that Vornado Realty (VNO 38.13 -1.12) was taking a 4.3% stake in the company, whereas tech enjoyed a lift from Nvidia's (NVDA 17.63 +2.22) better than expected Q3 (Sept) report...

The only true laggards in today's action were those groups linked to interest rates... Mortgage, banking, utility, and homebuilding traded lower - the latter despite an encouraging earnings report from Beazer Homes (BZH 115.01 +0.82).... The bond market plunged across the yield curve as expectations for a Fed rate hike in December and even February increased on the Oct jobs report... September Consumer Credit was the only other economic report of the day, and it made little impact on trading - increasing to $9.8 bln (consensus of $7.0 bln)...

ino.com

The NASDAQ 100 index posted a new contract high on Friday however; profit taking tempered some of today's gain. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. If The NASDAQ 100 index extends this fall's rally, a test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 is the next upside target. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10- day moving average crossing at 1488.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

The December S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it posted another new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally weekly resistance 1265.80 is the next upside target. Support begins with the 10-day moving average crossing at 1132.30.

The Dow closed higher on Friday and above the September's high crossing at 10,355 following a stronger-than-expected job growth report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday. If the Dow extends the rally, June's high crossing at 10,362 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

and the dollar numbers

Last trade 83.89 Change -0.54 (-0.64%)

Settle 84.01 Settle Time 15:38

Open 84.42 Previous Close 84.54

High 85.07 Low 83.89

Last tick: 2004-11-05 16:10:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[teryang]

108. Gold looks pretty good here too.

If it stays at over 430 for a while, the sky is the limit.

[RivetJoint]

107. Another good day

What's going on