Late polls are seen as largely accurate

[Freddie Stubbs]

By Alan Wirzbicki, Globe Correspondent | November 5, 2004

WASHINGTON -- After an election season marked by unprecedented criticism of mainstream opinion polls, pollsters were able to breathe easier over the final election results, which largely vindicated their predictions.

Most final polls published in the last 48 hours of the campaign accurately forecast President Bush winning with a narrow lead over John Kerry. Among the big national polls, Gallup gave Bush a 2-percentage-point edge among likely voters, 49 to 47. The Washington Post/ABC, Zogby, and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls all gave Bush a 1-percentage point advantage.

With almost all votes counted, Bush had a 3-percentage-point lead over Kerry in the popular vote, 51 to 48. Independent Ralph Nader finished with less than one-half of 1 percent of the popular vote. The rest of the popular vote went to an assortment of third-party candidates.

"Virtually all of the polls came within a few percentage points of the actual margin," said Michael Dimock, the research director for the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in Washington. "That's almost more than what you can expect." In its final poll, Pew predicted exactly the 51 to 48 breakdown in the popular vote.

more: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2004/11/05/late_polls_are_seen_as_largely_accurate/

[private_ryan]

1. 1% or 3%

is the same if the margin is 3%.

[54anickel]

2. I thought the exit polls were real time. What polls are they talking

about here? The ones from before the elections that were weighted more heavily toward Republicans? Smells like more Kool-aid to me.

[righteous1]

3. Polls

They were not referring to exit polls, but rather the last polls conducted prior to the start of the elction

[lefthandedskyhook]

4. Which came first, the polls(egg) or the scam(chicken)?

This is just another piece of spin. The result was manipulated on too many levels for this to mean anything at all.