STOCK MARKET WATCH THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 4, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 508
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 290
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 265 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 323 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 165
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 649
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 3, 2003

Dow 9,568.46 +45.19 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,852.90 +11.42 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,026.27 +4.28 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.60% -0.00 (-0.04%)
Gold future 375.00 +1.10 (+0.29%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Good Thursday Morning

all you Marketeers!

Here's a little wrap-up and I'm glad to see a little talk on the Treasuries today, much merited the other day I might add:

Bonds changed very little today after yesterday’s drubbing, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note closing today with a yield of 4.60%. So far, the 10-year note yield has been above 4.60% three times since July with the high reading on August 14 at 4.66%. All eyes are focused on the global economic recovery to see if it will stick. With many more good economic numbers, the yield should blow through the 4.66% level. Next week will be critical for Treasuries with more supply coming to market. The Treasury will auction five and ten-year notes next week, but are facing some competition for capital from Corporate America. J.P. Morgan estimates that $40 billion in corporate bonds will be offered through the month of September. The additional supply of debt with the same demand equals lower bond prices and higher interest rates. From the chart you can see how the support line derived from the two intra-day lows is almost exactly parallel to the 50-day moving average. I suspect that when the yield approaches the 50-day moving average the consolidation will be complete and rates will move higher again.

Higher interest rates have brought mortgage refinancing down by a full 80% from the peak back in May. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its applications index fell 1.6% in the week ending August 29th to the lowest level since June of last year. Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages rose very slightly to 6.25% versus 6.22% a week ago. Even though mortgage rates are higher, construction spending in July rose 0.2%. So far in 2003, spending is up 1.8% versus the first seven months of 2002. While construction spending is still considered healthy, the number came in below the estimated growth of 0.5%. In June the initial spending increase came in at 0.3%, but was surprisingly adjusted to 0.7% growth. The estimates for July surprised to the downside, but still showed growth pointing to economic recovery. It sounds to me like the momentum is beginning to slow for the real estate sector.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

So more Notes up for auction next week and lots of competition too. Hmm. Should be interesting

Some numbers out today, UE and productivity this morning, I think more later in the day (?) not sure.

I actually sat through some TV news last night. CNBC News with Brian Williams. Couldn't believe I saw story after story that was bad for Team Bush. It is high time their evil deeds starrted to catch up with them. With all the light being shined on all the Darkness of our Dear Leader's misAdminstration I can only think that may not play well into the markets.

That leads me to a question that occured to me yesterday: How much capability is there in manipulating markets? I mean even the PPT must have a limit to their resources. Any guesses? I wonder what Rad might think.

Will check back later, hope you're all off to a good start.

Julie

[ozymandius]

3. HA HA

Well, we see the bold writing on the wall, don't we Julie.

Can you believe all the damning stuff coming over the airwaves about Bushco? I never would have though this to be possible about a year ago. Have the powers-that-be had it with these assoles?

About manipulating markets: the way I understand it is done is that major movers like GE are prime targets for "pumping up". When the PPT pumps up a market pillar as diversified as GE, for example, then peripherally related markets respond. There is an excellent article written about this in the Washington Post circa 1998. It details the involvement of the Fed (personally Greenspan) and the Executive office, sometimes the Prez, in making the decision to pump the markets.

I will try to find it.

[JNelson6563]

6. Unemployment worse

...weaker than expected weekly jobless claims data... Initial claims rose 15K to 413K and brought the 4-week average up to 402K - a level synonymous with payroll declines...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

More ugly news for Jr. as well as the nation.

As to the PPT--I did know about the lemming factor in relation to the manipulation, Rad used to refer to the "lemmings" quite frequently. haha Still though, it seems the urge to morph into lemmings on the Street is waning a bit.

With the newest scandals hitting (Bank of America-Janus et al debacle) this can't be good. The mattress is looking more attractive every day as an investment alternative. ;-)

Julie

[Systematic Chaos]

8. What's this about BoA / Janus?

Can someone supply a link? I hadn't heard anything about it and now I'm curious.

Thanks. :)

[JNelson6563]

10. Interesting story

Here's a blurb and link:

Mutual Funds Allowed Fraudulent Trading, Spitzer Says
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

Just six months after reaching a settlement with investment banks over tainted research, Eliot Spitzer, the New York attorney general, said today that major mutual fund companies had engaged in fraudulent after-market trading practices with privileged institutional investors.

The attorney general made his claims in announcing a settlement with a hedge fund investor who Mr. Spitzer said had set up an operation with Bank of America's mutual fund division that allowed him to buy and sell mutual fund shares after the market had closed and then trade them the next day for a substantial profit.

The investor, Edward J. Stern, who manages a hedge fund called Canary Capital Partners, has agreed to settle with Mr. Spitzer's office, returning $30 million in profits and paying a $10 million penalty.

<snip>

In the complaint, prosecutors said Bank of America' fund operations not only encouraged such activities but financed them as well by extending credit lines to Mr. Stern, who would then invest substantial sums of money in other Bank of America funds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/03/business/03CND-FUND.html?ex=1063252800&en=ded0097bcaa0d09f&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

A sordid tale.

Julie

[jamesinca]

9. Also this from CBS

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={7CD8F3D3-25FF-4478-BC31-A33693C09B6A}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Initial claims for state unemployment benefits edged above the 400,000 level for the first time in a month in the latest week, evidence that the labor market remains weak. The average number of first-time claims over the past four weeks increased to 401,500 in the week ending Aug. 30, up from 397,250 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday.

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I like the thought that Bush was in Ohio this last weekend talking about his economic policies and how they are now helping America. He stood there and took credit for it when he thought it was good news, will he continue to take credit for it?

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Good morning all!! And happy stock markets to ya!! One of the few places where I can wish people an uphill journey and it is not a bad thing.

[JNelson6563]

11. Mornin' James

And an uphill journey to you as well! :-)

This UE data is just more feces hitting the ol' fan. Glad to see it's finally starting to fly in Bush's direction, from whence it came. Justice is a grande thing, no?

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Stocks, Bonds, Mortgage Rates, and the Dollar

Bonds changed very little today after yesterday’s drubbing, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note closing today with a yield of 4.60%. So far, the 10-year note yield has been above 4.60% three times since July with the high reading on August 14 at 4.66%. All eyes are focused on the global economic recovery to see if it will stick. With many more good economic numbers, the yield should blow through the 4.66% level. Next week will be critical for Treasuries with more supply coming to market. The Treasury will auction five and ten-year notes next week, but are facing some competition for capital from Corporate America. J.P. Morgan estimates that $40 billion in corporate bonds will be offered through the month of September. The additional supply of debt with the same demand equals lower bond prices and higher interest rates. From the chart you can see how the support line derived from the two intra-day lows is almost exactly parallel to the 50-day moving average. I suspect that when the yield approaches the 50-day moving average the consolidation will be complete and rates will move higher again.

Higher interest rates have brought mortgage refinancing down by a full 80% from the peak back in May. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its applications index fell 1.6% in the week ending August 29th to the lowest level since June of last year. Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages rose very slightly to 6.25% versus 6.22% a week ago. Even though mortgage rates are higher, construction spending in July rose 0.2%. So far in 2003, spending is up 1.8% versus the first seven months of 2002. While construction spending is still considered healthy, the number came in below the estimated growth of 0.5%. In June the initial spending increase came in at 0.3%, but was surprisingly adjusted to 0.7% growth. The estimates for July surprised to the downside, but still showed growth pointing to economic recovery. It sounds to me like the momentum is beginning to slow for the real estate sector.

Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, and Gas

All of the recent good news in construction spending has been good for the copper market. According to the Copper Development Association, construction accounts for 40% of copper demand and the average home in the U.S. contains about 400 pounds of copper. Higher demand for copper products has raised the price to 82.45 cents per pound and has broken the multi-year downtrend resistance. The chart shows a nice double-bottom formation with higher highs and higher lows since the fourth quarter of 2001. The next level of resistance should come around the $0.88 area and would coincide with the top of the current trend channel. For those of you that might own a copper-gold mining company I suspect the primary motive is for the gold production, but higher copper prices will ultimately add to the bottom line earnings as well. It is nice to see the base metals confirming the move in precious metals.

more...

[Systematic Chaos]

4. My brilliant input into this thread for today is:

Why do the graphs for gold, euros and yen up top look like the EKG of a flatlining patient? Is that an omen of some kind?

Quick, everyone! To the Meeting Room!

on edit: A little while later and now they resemble marbles rolling off a table....

God damn I need sleep!

[ozymandius]

5. No omen as far as I can see.

Just wait until trading time and I'll bet you'll see more squiggle in those lines.

[Systematic Chaos]

7. Ayup!

That cliff-diving squiggle straight into the abyss that gives you such a clean, minty feeling! :silly:

[Maeve]

12. 10:00 and the chart looks more dramatic than it should

Bad news on the jobLOSS economy, good on productivity (scared workers work harder? :shrug: ) Real little change in the numbers.
Dow 9,585.23 +16.77 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,858.69 +5.79 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,026.27 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.546% -0.053

[JNelson6563]

13. a broad picture of where we're at

so far this morning. 10:02:

DJIA 9,600.95 +32.49 +0.34%

Nasdaq 1,862.29 +9.39 +0.51%

S&P 500 1,027.90 +1.63 +0.16%

Dow Util 244.91 +0.07 +0.03%

NYSE 5,764.66 +4.86 +0.08%

AMEX 985.04 +2.23 +0.23%

Russell2000 511.58 +0.87 +0.17%

Semcond 449.18 +4.82 +1.08%

Gold future 372.50 -2.50 -0.67%

30-Year Bond 5.34% -0.01 -0.21%

10-Year Bond 4.57% -0.03 -0.57%

We were all wrong. It's all good. Whew! Glad that's over! ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

14. Let's see what's down the memory hole

Okay, the initial claims are back over 400,000--up even after the revised numbers from last week were pushed up a bit. So I went back a tiny week and got the post I made last Thursday.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jobless claims rise
New weekly claims for unemployment benefits higher than expected but remain below key 400,000 level.
August 28, 2003: 8:46 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for jobless benefits inched higher last week, boosted by lingering effects of the blackout, the government said Thursday in a report that still suggested a slowly improving job market.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits, an early read on the resilience of the labor market, rose 3,000 to 394,000 in the Aug. 23 week from a revised 391,000 in the prior week. The gentle rise was slightly above market expectations for 390,000 new claims.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Since this figure is ALWAYS revised, will it actually be above 400K by next week so it can go down instead of up? just asking...

I think I'm going from pessimist to cynic...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I rest my case for cynicism. The "gentle rise" last week wasn't so gentle after all and the employment figures still suck dead toads. From today's news we get "The four-week moving average of new claims, which irons out the volatility of the weekly data, rose to 401,500 from a revised 397,250 the prior week" http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/04/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

:donut::donut::donut::donut:

[JNelson6563]

16. Maeve the Prophet

You know a soft number when you see it! We Irish are no strangers to Blarney. ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

18. I like the term seer better

Particularly when it comes to the market--I'm not enough of an investor to deal with "prophet/profit" :D

You know, you can buy your own private Blarney stone for about $5? From the same quarry that the castle came from! Personally, I only kissed the stone to put some of its magic back....and because it was early in the day and hadn't been all slobbered over yet!

[Maeve]

15. 10:47 and I hate it when the markets are mixed

All that extra typing to get the colors right...

Dow 9,561.23 -7.23 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,856.80 +3.90 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,024.48 -1.79 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.557% -0.042

[JNelson6563]

17. haha and here I thought

you meant because of the unsurety or confusion it reflected. After brilliant prophecy expectations can be unreasonably high, no? haha Maeve, funny girl.

You can rest easier now, at 11:00 they're all the same color:

Dow 9,554.64 -13.82 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,851.71 -1.19 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,022.92 -3.35 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.564% -0.035

Julie

[Coventina]

19. No "I Ching" today

Hi guys, I'm sorry I can't do a reading today....I'm all tied up and I probably shouldn't even be posting this....but I can't resist the peek in to say hello!

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

20. Hey there!

Glad you got to stop in anyway! Hope you have a good day--we'll catch ya in the morning.

Julie

[ozymandius]

21. Hi folks - sorry to be so quiet. Got an update for ya.

This morning has been nothing but putting out fires.

12:40

DJIA 9,580.39 11.93 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 1,862.93 10.03 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,026.72 0.45 (0.04%)

[JNelson6563]

22. 12:41 update

Dow 9,580.46 +12.00 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,863.23 +10.33 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,026.74 +0.47 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.515% -0.084

The market doesn't know what to do but $$ is leaving Treasuries.

Of course Maeve the seer probably saw that comin'....

:-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

23. 1:36 - drifting toward the 2:00 runup

DJIA 9,583.48 15.02 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 1,864.91 12.01 (0.65%)
S&P 500 1,027.24 0.97 (0.09%)
10yr Note 4.60% -0.01

[ozymandius]

24. 2:21 shows still positive territory

Like a sucker - here I thought it was going to ramp upward suddenly.

DJIA 9,590.71 22.25 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 1,867.17 14.27 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,028.02 1.75 (0.17%)
10yr Note 4.60% -0.01

[Maeve]

25. 3:13--when's the climb start?

Should be zooming about now.... :+ Let's go to the blather...

3:00PM: Equity market continues to back off its highs of the day as the Nasdaq - today's best performing index - drifts back to the 1862/1865 area... Generally speaking, the market has had trouble meaningfully extending its gains as sellers have lightened positions across the board... Even today's reassuring economic data on the manufacturing and services sectors have done little to shake the ennui of the market... Tomorrow, the highly anticipated August employment report will be released at 8:30 ET, and carries special signifiance given the slow growth in the emplyment picture...
While Briefing.com is optimistic that the report will come in at, or ahead, of expectations (with our nonfarm payrolls numbers set at 25K vs. the consensus of 18K), we would not be surprised to see a material sell-off should the report disappoint..
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,592.39 +23.93 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,865.65 +12.75 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,027.36 +1.09 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521% -0.078

[ozymandius]

26. I was suckered into believing my own drivel.

3:43

DJIA 9,588.46 20.00 (0.21%)
NASDAQ 1,866.33 13.43 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,027.43 1.16 (0.11%)

I have to leave at this point. See you folks tomorrow.

[Maeve]

27. Nah, you just expected the pattern to continue!

That and the fact that where there are market bulls, there is market bull$#!^....
3:30PM: It's been a pretty listless afternoon as the indices have held tight to the day's trend... Specifically, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have fluctuated within a range of no more than 67, 21, and 7 points, respectively... Despite the market's lethargy, the indices are still poised to finish higher in a telling sign that the rally's momentum remains intact...
Although there have been some signs of slowing - such as the semiconductor's group fall yesterday and today's modest gains across the board, the major indices' ability to take out a course of resistance points suggests that the bulls continue to drive the action over the near-term...

Almost to the finishline, but I gotta go find something for supper before the kids make it home from school

Dow 9,582.08 +13.62 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,866.47 +13.57 (+0.73%)
S&P 500 1,027.03 +0.76 (+0.07%)

[JNelson6563]

28. end of the day

Here's how it all turned out:


Dow 9,587.90 +19.44 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,868.97 +16.07 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,027.97 +1.70 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.513% -0.086

Intel came out with happy mid-quarter up-date soon after close today so look for action there tomorrow.

See you all in the AM--
Julie