Zogby's South Carolina Polling Shows Four Candidates Tied for Lead

[Nambe]

Zogby International

Polling of likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina indicates that the current presidential hopefuls’ campaigns have yet to catch fire. Four candidates are in a virtual tie for the lead, and 46% of respondents are not yet sure which candidate to support.

NC Senator John Edwards, former VT Governor Dr. Howard Dean, MA Senator John Kerry, and CT Senator Joseph Lieberman are deadlocked for first place in the polling, yet none of them has reached double digits except for rounding. All four earned 8-10%.

In South Carolina polling by Zogby International in March and July, Lieberman had a slight edge over MO Congressman Richard Gephardt, 12% - 10% and 13% - 8% respectively. Civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton slightly outpolled Gephardt in the current results, 5% - 4%.

September 2-3 polling, part of Zogby’s “Road to Boston” series, involved 501 likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Error margins are higher in sub-groups. ---

Ride Don’t Drive It’s Global Cool

[paulk]

1. how valuable is a poll in a state

that Bush won 57 - 41?

[w4rma]

2. It's valuable in the primaries

And it helps get state and U.S. Congressfolks elected, also.

[PurityOfEssence]

4. Because Edwards can win this state

He was born there and the state has lost many jobs. Coming from the working class and showing that one can make it gives him huge cachet.

To win the general election, a couple of red states like this are very important.

[PurityOfEssence]

3. Edwards is LEADING in this poll, why can't anyone say that?

Okay, sure, the margin of error puts the top four in statistical "tie" status, but the Zogby results, as posted, show Edwards with 10%, Dean with 9% and Kerry and Lieberman at 8%.

The Rove machine has hammered and, more importantly, ignored Edwards because they're afraid of them. The left has ignored and/or derided him for the war vote, the Deanmania and other reasons. I'm sure intellectuals and contrarians hate him for being attractive. The fact is that he does well in person, has a very good record in the Senate and has a very progressive and well thought out platform.

The poll has him leading, dammit, why can't anyone be decent enough to just admit it?

If Dean had the edge, do you think it wouldn't be said? Does it make anyone wonder why the media and the right don't mention him?

[David Zephyr]

5. Great News for Edwards, Dean & Kerry. Bad News for Lieberman & Gephardt

Here's the headline from this poll:

In the last 150 days of polling, three candidates have showed growing momentum and others have notably lost ground.

THE SUNSHINE BOYS:

1. Sen. Edwards from nearby N. Carolina (born in S. Carolina) has enjoyed a 200% increase in support from 5% to 10% to now lead in that critical first Southern Primary. This should be very good news for Edwards. However...

2. Gov. Dean, again confounding his critics and distracters, has had a meteoric rise of 900% INCREASE in his S. Carolina support leaping from a mere 1% to 9% which is only 1% below that of Edwards. The "New England Liberal" charge has obviously presented no problem to the surging Dean campaign

3. Sen. Kerry, has also seen a more modest gravitation of support to his candidacy of 60% INCREASE. This is significant in that Kerry has not lost ground, but has continued to pick up support. It should also be noted that this poll does not take into account the aftermath of Kerry's bold Campaign Kickoff in South Carolina this week which should further help his cause.

THE COLLAPSING CAUSE OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES:

4. Joe Lieberman, who has made no bones about being the more conservative of the pack and who once enjoyed the highest numbers of the pack in S. Carolina has seen a continuous erosion of support during the last 150 days. Lieberman's loss in S. Carolina is a full 33% DECREASE. This is notable in that Lieberman's "firewall" strategy, as many of his supporters here at the DU have claimed, was to be in South Carolina. This cannot be encouraging news for his champions and his staff as they soak in the significance of this important Zogby Poll today.

5. Possibly as bad, if not worse, is the other more conservative Democrat, Congressman Dick Gephardt. Gephardt, who had enjoyed a strong second place in polling back in March of South Carolina voters now must confront a sobering 60% DECREASE in support for his candidacy. Like Lieberman, Gephardt's campaign had banked on a "firewall" after New Hampshire's Primary in the more conservative South Carolina.

This may be the beginning of the end for the Gephardt and Lieberman candidacies. Certainly, there must be a heavy fog hanging over their operations today as they come to grip with these numbers.

[dolstein]

6. This is good news for Wes Clark

South Carolina is wide open. I think if Wes Clark -- a Southernor and a soldier whose military credentials outshine even John Kerry's -- were to jump in the race, he'd be very competitive in this state. If only he can convince Donna Brazille to be his campaign manager.

[David Zephyr]

7. I Agree. Imagine That.

This latest Zogby poll tracking the candidates for the last 5 months in South Carolina is a headlining story.

Clark's entry would, as I've posted here a lot lately, come at the complete expense of poor John Kerry.

I hope you were not being flippant about Donna Brazille. She does not get enough credit around here at the DU. She is brilliant and I think that any campaign that gets her will greatly benefit from her talent.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[newyawker99]

9. kick

[VolcanoJen]

10. Dupe.... locking

Please continue discussion in the original, earliest thread on this topic, which can be found here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=97091

Thanks!
VolcanoJen
DU Moderator