Economists: Two good years coming

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04322/412878.stm

Businesses and individuals are likely to enjoy the next two years, with growth humming along and employers picking up the pace of hiring.

After that, things could get a lot bumpier.

That was the view of economists and panelists yesterday at Carnegie Mellon University's annual Global Economic and Investment Outlook Conference. They shrugged off yesterday's 1.7 percent spike in October's producer prices and the recent run-up in oil prices and instead focused on favorable trends benefiting the economy.

These include increased business investment in equipment and technology; solid profits by companies living off cuts and other efficiencies achieved during the lean recession years; stronger global growth that should boost U.S. exports; and sustainable job growth, which will provide more fuel to keep consumers spending now that the tonic of generations-low interest rates is running out.

"I believe we are now on a course for a sustained period of expansion at a moderate pace," Anthony M. Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, told a luncheon gathering at the conference. His definition of moderate: inflation-adjusted gross domestic product expanding 3.5 percent to 4 percent next year, and employers adding an average 150,000 to 200,000 workers a month in 2005.

[hatrack]

1. Yes, and economists are NEVER EVER WRONG, so stop saying that!

Yes, I'm sure we can trust the good professors of Carnegie MELLON to give us the straight dope.

[jdj]

51. is it Mellon as in Mellon Scaife?

I guess so.

[fujiyama]

54. As far as I know

Carnegie Mellon has nothing to do with Richard Mellon Scaife.

[Hephaistos]

57. I think there is a connection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Mellon_Scaife

Scaife was born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to Alan Scaife, scion of a prominent Pittsburgh family, and Sarah Mellon Scaife, daughter of Andrew W. Mellon and with her brother R.K. Mellon heirs to the Mellon oil, aluminum, and banking fortune. Although raised in opulence at the family estate of Penguin Court, the environment of Scaife's upbringing was cold. When Scaife inherited Penguin Court later in life, he had it demolished.

Somebody call Batman, please...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. Wha?

I will admit I am no economist, but I do know that there is a ton of stock market advisors who are predicting the exact opposite. Besides, the trends do not point to that at all.

No, I take this one with quite the grain of salt. That said, for the sake of many others, I hope I am dead wrong.

[DuaneBidoux]

9. Actually when many stock market "experts" predict down that

usually means it will go up. It's a contrary indicator. The one thing that none of these economists have probably placed into their macro equations are the increased hate of America and what that might do to business. Maybe nothing, but?

[MisterP]

3. "instead focused on favorable trends benefiting the economy"

oh, for crying in mud

[Career Prole]

4. I believe every economist who expresses confidence in the economy

at this point in our history has a better health plan than mine.
At the very least their drugs are far superior.

[Delphinus]

46. Am beginning to think I need drugs to get through this. n/t

[Deja Q]

5. Trade deficit? Gee, I remember when the repukes were ragging on Clinton...

Yet George I and George II didn't lift a finger either as it continued to climb up into their faces.

Damn hypocrites.

Sad part is, the followers aren't the problem - many of us agree on the same ills that our country has...

[pk_du]

6. Who are these douche-bags ??? 150-200K a month jobs

doesnt even keep up with workforce population

[llmart]

7. I'm telling you......

these people are seriously in a state of denial or they're just trying to convince the sheeple that all is well. More layoffs announced in the Detroit area today, more than likely K Mart employees won't all still have their jobs after the "merger", Detroit public school, Compuware, local news having a job bank phone in every night, price of everything skyrocketing, auto suppliers offering buyouts just to get people to leave, local municipalities operating on huge deficits and a shoestring.....I could go on.

Yeah, the next two years are just going to be peachy. We've got a great start on it already. Isn't this the same shit they've been dishing up for the last 4 years?

[DuaneBidoux]

12. Well, essentially what they are saying if you look at the numbers is that

things will go along like they have for the last four years (and of course any wealthy person will tell you things have been great). Expect more of the same. The stock market will seem okay, the wealthy will continue getting a lot wealthier. The middle will struggle to stay where they are but slowly keep sliping just like they have up to now, and when the government really starts to cut spending (06) you will see a sudden slowing of the economy and the streets will be flooded with beggers. But, economists will tell you that has nothing to do with the real economy.

[TexasChick]

39. Yep! They keep repeating this crap like Chimp and his cabal repeat

lies to finally convince people that it is the truth! Saddam had WMD! Saddam and al-Queada! Saddam!!! WMD! Saddam - 9/11!! War is Peace!

[secdiego]

56. I just checked the FRED database...

In January, 2001, there were 132,388,000 jobs in the U.S.
Last month, there were 132,017,000.

[bunkerbuster1]

8. What's an invasion of Iran do to this forecast?

Just wondering.

[kuozzman]

10. WHAT?? I'll be posting an alternative take on our economic

outlook shortly......

My main focus will be: Who benefited from any bills passed in the last 4 years?

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. national defense and McDonnell Douglas

are expected to have a bumper crop year

(Call about the cynic in me)

[KDLarsen]

24. Higher oil prices..

.. so expect the "Oh happy days" chorus coming from these guys to go down faster than the Titanic.

[Just Me]

32. Enrich the war-mongers with the blood of humanity.

You silly poster.

Of course, you were just inviting the obvious,...right?

[gratuitous]

13. Two good years coming? Let me guess:

2009 and 2010.

[patomime]

14. Yeah - right, and I've got some swamp water somewhere in .......

It depends on which party the economist comes from. You can always tell - that's right, they've been bought out too, just like the "mainstream media."

[NorthernSpy]

15. good for whom?

No matter how big the disaster, someone always benefits. Vultures eat very well in plague years. Iraq is a complete horror, and Haliburton and the other profiteers are doing just fine.

There are people who will be enriched by this "good" economy. But they aren't us.

[ixion]

16. And I hear Choco rations are going up

'economy humming along'? puh-leeze. :eyes:

[Yavin4]

17. Bull, Economic Propaganda Just In Time For Christmas

Of course they're saying this crap, here's why:

(1) The Fed is planning on raising rates and they want the public to believe that it's the good economy that's the reason. When the real reason is that inflation is truly raging out of control because of the weakness of the dollar.

(2) It's Christmas, and they want Americans to keep borrowing money to pay for their Christmas gifts.

[ThoughtCriminal]

18. Every optimistic prediction since 2000 - wrong

Every pessimitic prediction - correct

I suggest betting on more suffering for everyone but the rich. A growth market since 2000 no matter which direction the market takes.

[mhr]

19. Unemployed 53 Months, I Have Been Waiting Four Years For A Good

Economy.

All I Have To Say Is Dream On!

[Nicholas_J]

23. Yup

You are one of the many uncounted who have fallen off of the unemployment rolls. This was the prime reason republicans opposed extending umemployment. It produced false figures for Bush to usein his campaign. Overseas estimates of U.S. unemployment put it at over 11 percent.

[llmart]

30. There must be something seriously wrong with you.....

Christmas is coming and the "Help Wanted" signs are up everywhere - everywhere I say! (OK, I haven't seen any yet, but maybe that's just me.)

Have you tried your local Wal-Mart, or Seven-Eleven or Mickey D's? I heard they have a "career" waiting for you.

(major sarcasm and bitterness)

I actually saw a sign at one local Wal-Martlike store that said something to the effect that you could start working on your "career" there. Since when in this country does working at $8.50 an hour constitute a career?

[mhr]

35. I Have Managed Millions Of Dollars And Dozens Of People

The Wal-Marts and 7-11s of the world will not touch me with a ten foot pole.

These corporations truly want poorly educated sheeple that will show up every day and not ask any questions.

[_testify_]

37. $8.50 is a cash cow when the 'living' wage is $5.15

[NickB79]

45. Where the hell is the living wage $5.15?

Kenya? Indonesia? Fucking Iraq? The living wage in most of the US, unless you're living out of your car and eating ramen 3 meals a day, is much more than $5.15/hr.

[napi21]

20. Well, on Lou Dobbs tonight, worker income fell, the price of

oil, fruits & vegetables were up higher than ever before, and the dollar fell against the Euro so higher prices aren't going away any time soon.

Now, I'm not an economist, but I can tell you the majority of us aren't "doing better!"

[LisaM]

21. What does Paul Krugman say?

He is generally right on target.

[NiteOwl1]

22. Dream on... Dream until your dreams come true

WOOOHOOO... these guys are smoking something. They need a serious reality check.

If the dollar continues its decline against other currencies we won't make it two years. Actually we'll be lucky to make it one. As the dollar declines, interest rates will rise and to top that off nobody will want to buy US Govt securities. Where does this leave the U.S. ?
In dire straits, facing an economic collapse and currency devaluation that will gut the economy.

All I can say is... buy gold, buy euros... unload U.S. Govt Securities and dollars.

[_testify_]

34. don't buy gold or euros!

Buy MRE's bottled water and a reliable battery powered radio!!
You can't eat euros.



Not without lots of ketchup anyhow.

[NiteOwl1]

43. Maybe I'll be hungry enough...

to eat the gold... LOL

[cliss]

25. He's got to be joking.

He's expecting employers to add 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month starting in January of next year. Let's see, that would be around 1,800,000 to 24,000,000 jobs in the year 2005. Based on a work force of 150,000,000, that would be about a 16% increase. The following year would be the same. Yeah, right.

And in the meantime, here in Oregon we now have the highest unemployment rate in the country, 7.2%.

I'd like to see Mr. Santomero's credentials. Graduate of the George Bush University of Optimistic lies? A Ph.D. in Sales Pitches for the Uninformed Masses.

[high density]

26. They've been saying this BS for the last three years

Those bullshit tax cuts have created zero jobs.

[Just Me]

27. The snake consuming itself,...

,...you've seen it,...that snake swallowing its own tail.

That would be capitalist/consumer America.

Consuming.

Consuming.

Consuming.

[llmart]

28. Yep. I hope they keep consuming......

until they lose it all in the fall. Would serve them right. I, on the other hand, don't want to have to pay for the stupidity of the average American who thinks credit is "free" and accumulating stuff should be your number 1 priority in life.

[Just Me]

38. The only "silver-lining" I see,...is warmongers in bankruptcy.

They vested themselves in a "high-risk", blood for oil, public wealth for utopian free market "VEGAS" (dis-fucking-gusting) investment.

I, for one, will treat them with ZERO-TOLERANCE for their IMMORAL acts against humanity. I, for one, will advocate that their policies against people MUST BE ENFORCED against them. I, for one, advocate that, they should receive everything that they have given,...without mercy.

[VegasWolf]

29. Ha, ha, ha, hee, ha, hee, ha, ha, ha, bwaa, ha ,ha, ha, ha. Guess

they missed the little nasty inflation numbers this week, combined
with a crippling deficit, jobs offshoring, that pesky little
war in Iraq, oil still at or over 45.00 / barrel, star wars,
etc. What is really happening is a BEAR TRAP for you.

[Strelnikov_]

31. I Agree That The Day Of Reckoning May Still Be A Few Years Off

Although I don’t think the intervening years will meet their definition of a ‘good year’.

In the Frontline program on China-Mart (aka Wal-Mart) last night one of the items that stood out was that the majority of the jobs offshoring has occurred in the last 3-4 years.

The only thing keeping the economy afloat is Federal deficit spending, borrowing against private assets (real estate, retirement, etc.), and the remains of the liberal social welfare system. The big question is how much of these assets remain untapped. By the feel of things, we could still have a couple of years until a critical mass of assets have been stripped.

Doesn’t the economic policy of the GOP remind you of a mob ‘bust-out’. That is when they get their hooks into a business owner, run up massive debt against the business by buying product and selling it out the back door, and leaving with the spoils once the bills come due.

[_testify_]

36. 'bust-out' is right...

Also, kinda like those sci-fi movies where an alien species comes to harvest everything of value and leave the planet a dry dusty husk in its wake?

[guitar man]

33. I'm sure they are right

I just wish I had been able to propel myself into the class that is going to benefit from the coming economy. Oh well, I guess I just didn't work hard enough.

<sarcasm/off>

[TexasChick]

40. Some of you guys are FUNNY! This is one of the funniest threads I have

read in a long time! Thanks for the chuckles! I know you have to laugh instead of cry, right? Hell, been without a job for two years now! Gee, the economy is just slap-happy cheerio!!!

[VivaKerry]

41. What a hilarious article. I am keeping it!

Want to refer to it periodically over the next couple of years.

[partisan to truth]

42. 'good' is such a relative term... i wonder if any DU economics-experts

have an idea of whether these projections are good compared to the last four years or otherwise. call me a hippie radical skeptic, but i have serious doubts about this.

[Dcitizen]

52. Reply next year

With GDP and deficits at current level, the economy is moderate health until it hit vulnerable factors: alive OBL external shock, completely surrendered dollar, and the rate’s ceiling rise which is unthreaten yet until later time. So, they can collect 150K+ voters/new hires per month for 2006 as they did this year election. In the most humor case, who knows the job exports specialists invent something new like Sir Peso.

[area51]

44. kick. (n/t)

[Bullshot]

47. What do you call it when you lay all of the economists end to end

on the bottom of the ocean? A good start.

What do you do when you have all of the economists standing in concrete up to their shoulders? You get more concrete.

Collectively, I don't think I've ever seen a group of people more devoid of common sense than economists, and I've met and clashed with a few of them on panel discussions in the past.

It's just like the Frontline story on Wal-Mart the other night. They had some dufus from the Cato Institute give his spin on whether Wal-Mart is good for America, to which he adamantly said it is because they sell products at such low prices that consumers can buy more. Never mind that Wal-Mart drives out American jobs and consumers are forced into lower-paying jobs if they're lucky enough to find one.

How do these guys figure that consumer prices have increased only 2%. Where I live, gas prices are up 30% from last year. Staple food items, including milk, cheese, cereal, hamburger and other foods are up at least 20% from last year. Out-of-pocket contributions to health insurance in my area are up at least 20%. Where do these guys get their numbers?

[The Backlash Cometh]

48. Meaning that the job cutting, cost saving methods they use today

will take its toll in two years when the consumer confidence indexes hit rock bottom because no one in America has money.

[pippin]

49. Let's see . . .

the US dollar is worth shit internationally, foreign countries have stopped investing in the US thereby no longer helping to float the national debt, we have a trillion dollar national debt, the war in Iraq continues to gobble up money like there's no tomorrow and there isn't a day that goes by when some company or corporation doesn't lay off people by the thousands. And these "experts" say thing are looking up??? :think: Which planet are they on? :mad:

[lil-petunia]

50. Just ignore those "headcount changes" behind the curtain

uh huh.

[Tight_rope]

53. Man...the use of crack has hit an all time high at all levels of society!

[Swamp Rat]

55. You beat me to it.

:D