When oil peaks ...

[mhr]

When oil peaks ...
Asia Times Online
01/26/2005
By Tony Wesolowsky

PRAGUE - Fertilizer, DVDs, rubber, cheap flights, plastics and metals. None of these things have anything in common, right? Think again. An ingredient in all of them, in one form or another, is oil.

Oil is the precious primer of the world economic engine, making it hum. Oil provides 40% of the world's energy needs, and nearly 90% of all transportation. It's also a building block for many products and goods. Cut supplies of this natural resource and life as we know it could change.

Snip ......

" the next 30 years we will find more than 150, maybe 200, but probably not, but 150 billion barrels of oil is roughly what you're going to find," Aleklett said. "And during the same period, we will consume 1,000 . So that means we are now digging deep into the reserves we have at the moment."

Snip ......

The father of the peak oil movement, US geologist M King Hubbert, said an economic model based of infinite growth but fueled by finite natural resources is doomed. Ironically, there's also a saying from oil-rich Saudi Arabia that goes: "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA26Dj04.html

[RobertSeattle]

1. I've wondered if we'll just end up "mining" our dumps

Since there is some much plastic we throw away without recycling.

[murray hill farm]

2. Does anyone predict..

when we will begin to experience the loss of oil...i mean a prediction of when we will start having blackouts of electricity, long lines to buy gas, fertilizer shortages, plactic shortages, food shortages, etc.?

[mhr]

4. The Only Thing I Can Offer Is This - Peak Oil By 2007 - 2010

The lights start to fade in the next twenty years.

http://www.dieoff.org/synopsis.htm

[ashmanonar]

5. i don't think there's any reliable estimate on what oil there actually is

although don't quote me on it, i don't really know. but the way people burn it in those urban tanks they drive, the way they bomb the hell out of each other in jets that burn JP5 like it's water, the way people don't really understand our world's resources...this is the stuff that scares me.

it isn't time to think of new options when our old one is gone, it's time to think of new options when it becomes technically possible to do so. our technology is quite high, i think that given a few years and a sizeable amount of funding (although not as much as is being spent in the ME) we could realize dreams of cars fueled entirely by alternative fuels (solar, hydro, methane) that are safe fuels and easily found in abundance.

this using oil until it is gone is a mentality that has been around for centuries. take, take, take. burn, burn, burn. the forests of europe, which used to be the predominant form of landscape, are only a shadow of what they once were. america is much the same way. new york, pennsylvania, ohio, the entire northeast: they all used to be solid forest. hills and forests. only little clearings where small bands of humans eked out a place to survive.

we humans have exacted a terrible toll on our world. and then we wonder why the resources are now gone. why we're now looking at a major forced change in the way we do things and the way we live bc of such ethereal things as "corporations" and "governments".


sorry about the rant, but it's something i feel strongly about. i live in the UP of michigan, one of the last really natural places in america that is really just wooded hills. it makes me sick to see the logging trucks go rolling through town, to see the ore ships carry away the stuff that the hills are made of...

(yes, i know the irony, considering i'm sitting at a desk made of wood and typing on a laptop made of plastic (made from oil) and wiring (made from the iron and copper that is mined out from under the ground)...i just think we could do things much better.)

on edit: i didn't see the post directly above me, but even so, i don't think i stayed on topic during this post so it doesn't matter...lol

[mhr]

6. You Are Correct That No One Knows How Much Recoverable Oil

Is still in the ground. However, there are consensus estimates based on past exploration and the recovery rates from existing and dead oil fields.

In short, we are not finding enough new oil to meet our needs and we are fast approaching the break even point of peak oil, where we consume more than we produce.

It is an interesting side note that the energy produced per capita for the whole world peaked in 1979. In other words each person has had less energy to use year after year since 1979. Nothing has stopped this decline and the trend is quite clear.

More at the link in my previous post.

[murray hill farm]

7. Where are you in the UP, eh?

I lived for 20 years in Marquette!

[ashmanonar]

10. marquette, actually!

i go to NMU, art and design major. and i'm taking snowshoeing! anyone not from the up or a northern area wouldn't know what the hell i'm talking about when i'm taking a snowshoeing class, but it's fun...lol.

[murray hill farm]

12. cross country skiing!!!

Try it ..it is wonderful..u can go anywhere..way into the woods..and u dont need lessons..and can rent the stuff..maybe it is free to students right at NMU..sometimes i even miss marquette..for a minute...but still think it is one of the most beautiful places on earth. enjoy!!!

[ashmanonar]

13. you do have to rent.

but snowshoeing is just as good as crosscountry, in my opinion. it's more like hiking, just about as easy (does hurt your feet at first).

but anythign to get out in the midddle of nowhere up here is great. ESPECIALLY with a girlfriend...:evilgrin:

[mulethree]

8. I don't think so

For electricity we have many coal plants under development, and a lot of coal. How clean we force the plants to be, and how ... ecologically friendly we force the coal mines to be will determine the cost of electricity. Of course we have a lot of older plants, including numerous large nuclear plants, which are nearing the end of their service lives as well, so the planned coal plants still wouldn't totally replace natural gas and oil based electricity generation.

They indicate fertilizer as coming from oil, it actually comes largely from natural gas, not oil. They separate out hydrogen to affix nitrogen into ammonias, this can be done using pure hydrogen or coal-synthesis-gas or oil products as well. Imagine sewage and livestock waste (crap/piss) -> methane and urea -> fertilizers; powered by a coal power plant.

Demand increases, supply stagnates and then decreases. This doesn't have to result in shortages but definitely in price inflation which limits demand. As the price goes up, they will re-activate some older oilwells and use more advanced/expensive tech's to squeeze more oil from them; they will synthesize diesel from coal, etc. So you can expect supply to stagnate and fluctuate as the peak is passed but rising prices make more expensive sources feasible.

Will you wait in long lines for $15/gallon gasoline? or get your bicycle out of the garage and ride it to a bus stop? Will you pay $5000 for a plane ticket? or set up a teleconference or a local ski vacation instead of a beach vacation?

So as supply limits demand, and drives up prices; some industries will shrink (tourism, air transport and others) while others will grow (coal mining, skiing, mass transit, teleconferencing and others) and new industries will be spawned/kicked up (coal->hydrogen, cleaner coal techs)

But at the same time, the rising prices (inflation, higher interest rates), coinciding with aging populations who stop producing and begin withdrawing capital to fund consumption (even higher interest rates) = global recession/depression. Not the ideal circumstances to grow and start industries. = escalating stress -> desperation -> desperate measures?

[ashmanonar]

11. yea...this is the problem.

we shouldn't be facing this problem only now, we should have acknowledged that we were in trouble in 1980...ooh, but then we had reagan, and the sheiks were sitting on all that oil.../sarcasm...

seriously, this problem should have been addressed 20 years ago, and then we might have had a chance to develop somehting to the point of efficiency. it's too late now.

on edit: how come all these problems seem to come back to neocons, or the religious wrong?...

[codswallop]

3. Hemp

would solve alot of problems.

Biofriendly transitions are possible.

[mulethree]

9. all kinds

Grow the seedy kind to make bio-oil cheaper than soybeans with more harvests for less fertilizer.

The tall kinds make fiber better than cotton in more climates and paper to boot.

I suppose there are some varieties that work well for seed and fiber at the same time?

Grow the stinky kind, light it up and pipe it into boardrooms and statehouses. A little "kind" would go far to reduce greed and solve a lot of problems damn quick. Ever see a stoned dude start a fight or hold a grudge?