The 13 Riskiest Housing Markets

[ckramer]

Across the country, thousands of people like Karen Brodie are chucking their day jobs to become real estate investors. And why not? The nation is experiencing a boom in property values that has seen the median price of an existing home rise 10% in the past year; 37 areas saw prices jump by at least 15%. Thanks to leverage, which lets you buy a property for a fraction of its cost, you can double your money in a flash.

But soaring prices and the emergence of a generation of wet-behind-the-ears real estate investors stoke fears that the boom is turning into a bubble that will burst. At worst, argues Brodie, 40, home prices in her region could experience "a short correction." But, she acknowledges, "a bubble is something I think about."

Because of the localized nature of real estate, it's hard to argue that there is a national real estate bubble. But a recent report by mortgage giant Fannie Mae says conditions in many markets "mirror past conditions that preceded regional housing busts." And Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says he is detecting "little bubbles" in certain parts of the U.S. For example, from the first quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2005, median home prices soared 46% in Bradenton, Fla., and 33% in the Riverside-San Bernardino area, east of Los Angeles.

Another reason for concern: the growing number of houses bought as investments. Nearly one-fourth of purchases over the past year were investments, and "they're concentrated in a few markets," says Marco Van Akkeren, an economist for the PMI Group, a residential mortgage insurer. He notes, for instance, that 44% of home purchases in Las Vegas over the past year were investments. Markets with a high proportion of investor-owners tend to be risky because investors often have little or no equity in their properties, and they're quick to sell at any hint of a downturn in property values.

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[fudge stripe cookays]

1. Interesting!

Thanks for posting! I'm so relieved to see Dallas is NOT on that list. This gives me hope.

FSC

[Gormy Cuss]

2. I'm with them on Boston, Providence,SF, and L.A.

I don't know enough about the other market areas listed, although there was an article posted the other day about the softening Denver market.

Boston has the same sort of run-up now as it experienced in the 1980s and "suburbs" like Dorchester crashed hard last time. Dorchester is a section of the city -- not a suburb by anyone's definition.


:P

[phantom power]

3. Reminds me of the day-trading craze in the late 90s.

You could buy damned near any stock and make money. Everybody had an online brokerage account.

We all know how that turned out.

[newscott]

4. I'm still amazed that there are still people moving into brand

new homes in my town about 40 miles south of Boston. What with all the high tech jobs going west or out of country, who the heck is left to be buying these brand new McMansions? Must be the North Shore folks forced to sell their 800k McMansions at a loss and then slum with us wee folk in Middleboro.