PINR: Intelligence Report: Iran

[NVMojo]

20 October 2005
"Intelligence Brief: Iran"

n October 12, 2005, Iran released a statement expressing its willingness to resume negotiations with the E.U.-3 -- composed of the United Kingdom, France and Germany -- over its controversial nuclear research program. The statement marked Iran's first official response to the September 24, 2005 I.A.E.A. resolution that called Iran in "noncompliance" with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (N.P.T.); the resolution stated that if Iran failed to end uranium conversion and failed to answer further questions about its nuclear program, it would be referred to the U.N. Security Council for vote on possible sanctions.

After the September 24 I.A.E.A. vote, Iran reacted sharply by threatening with economic repercussions companies based in the countries that voted for the resolution. Tehran also threatened to enrich uranium immediately, in defiance of the resolution. However, as PINR argued on September 26, it was unlikely that Iran would move to enrich uranium immediately since such an act would antagonize its few allies in the nuclear dispute.

While Iran's allies in its nuclear dispute -- most significantly Russia and China -- may be unconcerned with Iran's nuclear research program, they would like to avoid a major international confrontation over the issue, especially if it would pit them against the United States and the European Union. Such a diplomatic confrontation would damage relations between the world's major powers and possibly have economic ramifications for the countries involved. Therefore, it is safe to assume at this stage that Russia and China are persuading Iran to take a more moderate stance on the nuclear issue.

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