GERALD RELLICK: A Troop Withdrawal Argument Tailored for George Bush

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By Gerald Rellick -- World News Trust

In a January 8th op-ed in the Washington Post, Zbigniew Brzezinski presented an extremely accurate picture of what the United States faces today in Iraq. He counters George Bush' assertion, offered up last month, that "there are only two options before our country: victory or defeat." This is a "false strategic choice,"� says Brzezinski. He says that victory is "unlikely" (which is certainly an understatement), and concludes that there should be a "relatively prompt military disengagement," the war in Iraq could (and should) come to an end within a year." Brzezinski explains his reasoning thus:

"The U.S. force required to achieve would have to be significantly larger than the present one, and the Iraqi support for a U.S.-led counterinsurgency would have to be more motivated. The current U.S. forces (soon to be reduced) are not large enough to crush the anti-American insurgency or stop the sectarian Sunni-Shiite strife. Both problems continue to percolate under an inconclusive but increasingly hated foreign occupation.

"Moreover, neither the Shiites nor the Kurds are likely to subordinate their specific interests to a unified Iraq with a genuine, single national army.... A truly national army in that context is a delusion."�

While there is bound to be ongoing political strife after American withdrawal, there is also common interest, writes Brzezinski. Most importantly, the Shiites and Kurds, which make up 75% of the population, want an independent Iraq. He writes: "The Kurds, with their autonomy already amounting in effect to quasi-sovereignty, would otherwise be threatened by the Turks. And the Iraqi Shiites are first of all Arabs; they have no desire to be Iran's satellites." As for the Sunnis, the dominant sect under Saddam Hussein's rule, Brzezinski sees them forced into the coalition for an independent Iraq "when deprived of the rallying cry of resistance to a foreign occupier."

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