The Gun is Smoking - 2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show theft

[papau]

Media Release: January 16, 2005 by the National Election Data Archive

The Gun is Smoking - 2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show
Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/1/prweb333209.php

There is significant controversy about whether the 2004 presidential
election was conducted fairly and its votes counted correctly.
According to results of the major national election exit poll conducted
for the National Election Pool by Edison/Mitofsky (E/M), Kerry won
Ohio's pivotal vote, though the official tally gave the state, and thus
the presidency, to Bush. The conduct of Ohio's election was formally
debated by Congress in January 2005.

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team
to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio
presidential exit poll data "The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio
Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of
Vote Miscount" available at
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf.
NEDA's analysis provides significant evidence of an outcome-altering
vote miscount.

The analysis is based on the most accurate statistical method yet
devised for determining whether exit poll error, random variations, or
vote count manipulation cause the discrepancies between exit polls and
official vote tallies. This analysis method was made public recently by
NEDA in "Vote Miscounts or Exit Poll Error? New Mathematical Function
for Analyzing Exit Poll Discrepancy" available at
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit-Poll-Analysis.pdf

Exit Polls were conducted in 49 of Ohio’s 11,360 precincts. At least
40% of Ohio's polled precincts show statistically significant
differences between Kerry’s exit poll percent and official vote count
percent. 35% of these exit polls overestimated the Kerry official vote
share. This is five times the number expected. Three of the most
glaring examples are:

1. In E/M precinct 27, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry’s
official vote count was 29% less than his exit poll share, creating a
58% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote
margins. There is less than a one in 867,205,500 chance of this
occurring due to chance.

2. In E/M precinct 25, with an estimated 62 respondents, Kerry’s
official vote count was 28% less than his exit poll share, creating a
56% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote
margins. There is less than a one in 234,800 chance of this occurring
due to chance.

3. In E/M precinct 48, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's
official vote was 16% less than his exit poll share, creating a 32%
difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins.
There is less than a one in 17,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.

There are also two precincts where the Bush official vote count is
significantly less than the Bush exit poll share. The number of
significant discrepancies and the pattern of Ohio's discrepancy shown in
the NEDA report provide strong support for the conclusion that vote
count errors converted a Kerry win to a Bush win.

New electronic voting equipment without voter verified paper ballots,
implemented under the 2002 Help America Vote Act, makes it easier for a
small number of people to manipulate vote counts and nearly impossible
to independently audit vote count accuracy. Virtually every county in
America today publicly reports its vote counts in a way that hides
evidence of miscounts. This allows those with access (whether
authorized or not) to manipulate or make mistakes in vote counting with
negligible possibility of detection.

Without accurate elections, America is not a democracy. NEDA urges the
media to publicize the results of this report and its recommendations,
in order to return to the American people their right to determine the
country’s leaders.

The National Election Data Archive is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization
whose mission is to scientifically investigate the accuracy of elections
through the creation and analysis of a database containing
precinct-level vote-type election data for the entire United States. By
making detailed election data publicly available NEDA furthers its goal
of providing the means for independent analysts to evaluate the
accuracy of vote counts in time to ensure that properly elected
candidates are sworn into office following future elections.

For further information contact:
Kathy Dopp, MS Mathematics, NEDA, President [e-mail]
435-658-4657 or
Ron Baiman, PhD, Economics, NEDA, Vice President, [e-mail]

National Election Data Archive (NEDA)
http://electionarchive.org
--------------------------------

To receive our email announcements, please email
[e-mail]

Common-sense solutions to ensure accurate vote counts:
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/election_officials/Audits_Monitoring.pdf

Please donate to our 501(c)(3) nonprofit to help implement NEDA:
http://electionarchive.org/fairelection/donate.html

NEDA brochures are available:
http://electionarchive.net/docs_pdf/info/US/USCVbrochure.pdf

National Election Data Archive
P.O. Box 682556
Park City, UT 84068

[ixion]

1. Without accurate elections, America is not a democracy

so very true.

kicked and recommended.

[Fridays Child]

2. K & R

[Vidar]

3. superb ground for impeachment