January 21, 2006
Latin America Shifts Left: It's the Economy
By Mark Weisbrot, AlterNetEvo Morales' election in Bolivia, with an unprecedented
(for that country) 54 percent of the vote, is seen and
analyzed here mostly in political terms. He is a former
head of the coca growers union and opposes the U.S.-
sponsored attempts to eradicate the production of coca.
He has talked about nationalizing the natural gas
resources now owned by foreign corporations. "We're not
just anti-neoliberal, we're anti-imperialist in our
blood," he proclaimed at a recent campaign rally. These
things will be more than enough to ensure that he does
not get a fair hearing here in the United States.
But we would do well to step back from the politics for
a moment and look at this election in economic terms.
This explains a lot what is happening in Bolivia, and
indeed across most of the region. Bolivia is the
poorest country in South America -- its GDP (or annual
income) per person is only $2,800, as compared to
$8,200 for the Latin American region and $42,000 in the
United States.
Bolivia has also been subject to IMF agreements almost
continuously (except for eight months) since 1986. And
it has done what the experts from Washington have
wanted, including privatizing nearly everything that
could be sold. Among the most notorious was the water
system of Cochabamba, which led to the famous "water
war" against Bechtel (the buyer) in 1999-2000 after
many residents got priced out of the market. The
country's Social Security system was also privatized.
But nearly 20 years of these structural reforms -- or
"neoliberalism" as Morales and most Latin Americans
call it -- have brought little in the way of economic
benefits to the average Bolivian. Amazingly, the
country's per capita income is actually lower today
than it was 25 years ago. And 63 percent of Bolivians
live below the poverty line.
So Morales' declarations cannot be dismissed as just
populist campaign rhetoric. In fact, the economic
failure of the last 25 years is both regional and
unprecedented. For Latin America as a whole, income per
person -- the most basic number that economists have to
measure economic progress -- has grown by about 1
percent for the first five years of this decade. From
1980 to 2000, it grew by only 9 percent. Compare that
to 82 percent for the 1960-1980 period -- before most
of the neoliberal reforms began -- and it is easy to
see that this is the worst long-term economic failure
in modern Latin American history.
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