Playing raw, hardball politics in Baghdad

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From an American standpoint, Iraq's elections have provided a Middle Eastern demonstration of Murphy's Law: Whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Amid the resulting political disarray, the Bush administration is adopting Yogi Berra's famous counsel of patient stubbornness: It ain't over till it's over.

Iraqi politics entered a decisive phase with December's elections,which elected a Parliament that will choose the new Iraq's first permanent government. As Yogi might say, this is the ball game. So far, it hasn't gone the way the United States might have hoped.

Iraqis voted for sectarian parties in December, contrary to America's hopes they would back secular parties that might transcend religious ties.

Then last Sunday, in a further setback, the dominant Shiite bloc known as the United Iraqi Alliance confounded Washington's hopes and nominated as the next prime minister the incumbent, Ibrahim Jaafari, whom many Iraqis have criticized as ineffectual. Worst of all, the kingmaker in Jaafari's selection was a hotheaded Shiite militia leader and sworn enemy of the United States, Moqtada al-Sadr. And jockeying for Jaafari was the peripatetic Ahmad Chalabi, who hopes to be economic czar in the next government.

Daily Star

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1. Khalilzad the fixer

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Khalilzad won't rule out the possibility that as the negotiations continue, Jaafari might not survive as the Shiite's choice for prime minister. "I would not exclude the possibility that if they don't agree on programs and people, there may be a new candidate for prime minister,'' Khalilzad says.


....and if they were to oust Jaafari somehow what do you suppose Sadr would do about that? WTF are they thinking? Not a brilliant move for our esteemed Ambassador.

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2. Can't tell the players without a program.

I think al Sadr is central to what's going on now, he made his first move in a long time by supporting Jaafari, while he is personally making the grand tour of the Middle East, and everybody else is still playing catchup. It is noticeable that al Sistani has nothing to say, too, and the comments coming from the Federalists have a defensive tone. Stay tuned ...

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3. you and me both

it is dizzying! I noticed his whirlwind tour recently, he was with the King of Jordan yesterday. I think what will happen was what was predicted. Even with Al-Sadr support from some Sunnis it is not enough to make a difference. I think I see another war up ahead with Americans right smack dab in the middle of it.

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4. War seems a safe bet. I'm wondering if the government is going to make it.

I mean will anything resembling a functional goverment ever get organized?
It's been two months now.

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5. I highly doubt it

The only government I can envision is the one that is forming now, an Islamic Government of hardliners. If that happens the Kurds will freak out literally. The Sunnis will never be happy without another Saddam like strongman to put them back in power. This all so very fucked and I don't see a good solution anywhere but to get the hell out and let them sort it out. The US involvement in the politics is certainly not helping anything.