Analysts See Lebanon-ization of Iraq in Crystal Ball

[RedEarth]

BAGHDAD — Gunmen hold sway over streets lined with concrete bomb-blast barriers and razor wire. Entire neighborhoods are too dangerous for police to enter. The government, holed up in a fortress behind layers of checkpoints, huddles in emergency meetings and issues proclamations that draw little attention on the streets or in foreign capitals.

.........

The outlines of a future Iraq are emerging: a nation where power is scattered among clerics turned warlords; control over schools, hospitals, railroads and roads is divided along sectarian lines; graft and corruption subvert good governance; and foreign powers exert influence only over a weak central government. The bleak prospects have serious implications for the U.S. Washington wants to tone down its overt political influence in Baghdad and decrease the number of U.S. troops precisely at a time when the fledgling Iraqi government has shown itself incapable of maintaining political or military control.

"This is something that's been leaning in this direction for some time, and the mosque incident has accelerated the process," said Edward S. Walker, a former assistant secretary of State for Near East affairs. "What we're talking about is people looking out for their own. I don't think it can be turned around." Doomsayers long have warned that Iraq was turning into a failed state like Somalia or Taliban-run Afghanistan, a regional black hole. It's far too early to write Iraq off as a quagmire, analysts say, but the threat of contagious and continuous instability — like in Lebanon — looms.

"The expectations of the United States and its allies have been lowered considerably," said Mark Sedra, a researcher specializing in rebuilding post-conflict countries at the Bonn International Center for Conversion, a German think tank. "Now the main goal is just creating a state that controls instability and contains the high levels of violence that prevail at the moment and prevents that violence from spilling over into neighboring states or destabilizing the region."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-future26feb26,0,907511.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[BattyDem]

1. Let's see ...

The analysts said there were no WMDs.
The analysts said we weren't sending enough troops.
The analysts said we'd be creating more terrorists by invading Iraq.
The analysts said Iraq would become engulfed in a civil war.
The analysts said we would destabilize the Middle East.


Forget the analysts .. they don't know a damn thing! :sarcasm:

[Mythsaje]

2. Analysts, hell...

WE said all these things too. At least, I did. And that was BEFORE I ever came to DU.

[Coastie for Truth]

3. Feuding nationalities + warring tribes + war lords

Inevitable result of the post WW 1 map drawing exercises by the Allies -- and it happened in the Balkans, the Levant, Palestine, Iraq, (in the Post-Communist era) the former Asian Republics of the USSR.

Imposed borders drawn without regard to ethnicity, religion, language, folk ways, etc. have a high burden.