JAMES KUNSTLER: Peak Behavior

[Tace]

James Kunstler -- Clusterfuck Nation

I try to avoid the term "peak oil" because it has cultish overtones, and this is a serious socioeconomic issue, not a belief system. But it seems to me that what we are seeing now in financial and commodity markets, and in the greater economic system itself, is exactly what we ought to expect of peak oil conditions: peak activity.

After all, peak is the point where the world is producing the most oil it will ever produce, even while it is also the inflection point where big trouble is apt to begin. And this massive quantity of oil induces a massive amount of work, land development, industrial activity, commercial production, and motor transport. So we shouldn't be surprised that there is a lot happening, that houses and highways are still being built, that TVs are pouring out of the Chinese factories, commuters are still whizzing around the DC Beltway, that obese children still have plenty of microwavable melted cheese pockets to zap for their exhausting sessions with Grand Theft Auto.

But in the peak oil situation the world is like a banquet just before the tablecloth is pulled out from under it. There is plenty on the table, but it is about to be overturned, spilled, lost, and broken. There's more oil available then ever before, but also so many people at the banquet table clamoring for it that there is barely enough to go around, and the people may knock some things over trying to get it.

A correspondent in Texas writes: "On a four week running average basis, total US petroleum imports (crude + products) have been falling since Feb. 24, 2006, until last week, when we finally showed an increase of 1.3 percent, after bidding the price of oil up by about 20 percent. IMO, we bid the price up enough to (temporarily) increase our imports. We will see what subsequent weeks show, but I think that we are in the early stages of a bidding war for remaining net export capacity. The interesting question is what countries may not be importing because they can't afford the oil."

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[calmblueocean]

1. If peak oil has cultish overtones, it's because of Kunstler himself.

The loathing for modern society he exudes in every interview is part of the reason people have begun to associate peak oil with political cranks. It's like he can't help himself. He always has to get his digs in about obese kids eating their microwave cheese pockets, or whatever excess of modern society personally revulses him at the moment. If he was really concerned about making a difference, he'd do what real scientists and policy advocates do -- stick to the facts. He's been the worst sort of advocate, the kind that actually degrades support for the cause he promotes.

Kunstler has also helped lead the energy awareness movement down a path of gleeful nihilism. Because he has such an axe to grind with suburbia, he can't bring himself to talk about ways that society might mitigate peak oil or even thrive. Orbital and lunar solar power have to the potential to deliver enough power for every human being on Earth to live a first world lifestyle without producing greenhouse gases, smog, or pollution of any sort. Enough uranium can be recovered from seawater to power the world for millions of years. Solutions for getting through the energy crunch and reaching a world of safe, green energy prosperity exist, but Kunstler has no interest in promoting them. Until he does, "peak oil" is just going to become more and more of an apocalyptic cult instead of a real movement to make the world a better place.