Syria and Hizbullah on the Attack .... an analysis

[RedEarth]

Syria and Hizbullah on the Attack

Joshua Landis, PhD
Assistant Professor of Middle Eastern Studies in the School of International and Area Studies at the University of Oklahoma.



The Hizbullah incursion into Israel to capture two Israeli soldiers to be used as a bargaining chip for the release of Lebanese prisoners being held in Israel was carried out smoothly. Ostensibly, it was an operation that had only limited goals. Hizbullah has been announcing for over a year that it would kidnap Israeli soldiers if Lebanese prisoners in Israel were not released. As Anthony Shadid writes from Lebanon:

The attack Wednesday was almost sure to bolster the martial reputation of Hezbollah, which probably enjoys more support in the rest of the Arab world than in Lebanon itself, where other sectarian factions have pushed for it to disarm. Nasrallah has vowed on numerous occasions to seize soldiers as a bargaining chip for the Lebanese prisoners; in one speech, he said it would happen this year.

But in the larger arena of the Middle East, Hizbullah's attack on Israel was clearly timed to increase pressure on Israel and the US when they are most vulnerable. Passions in the region have been inflamed against Israel and the US by Israel's aggressive incursion into Gaza and attempt to force the rapid collapse of the Palestinian Authority led by Hamas.

Normally, Hizbullah would have to be very cautious about embroiling Lebanon in another round of fighting with Israel for fear that Lebanon's other sects would condemn it. But with the Gaza situation having aroused general anger against Israel, Hizbullah felt free to jump into the fight on the side of the Palestinians, knowing that even its Christian enemies in Lebanon could not condemn it for sacrificing Lebanon's infrastructure and all important tourist season. Syria is thrilled by the opportunity to undermine America and Israel's general policies in the region. For years, Asad has insisted that the US is following contradictory, hypocritical and unrealizable policies in the region and has opposed them. The United States has condemned Syria for terrorism and being a force of evil in the region because Syria not only refuses to help the US achieve its goals in the region, but has been actively working to frustrate them. Washington has asked Syria to help build a strong Hariri led government Lebanon, build a strong pro-American government in Iraq, and help Israel tame the Palestinians in the occupied territories while it establishes the wall through the West Bank as its border.

............

In the coming months, we can expect Syria to move more forcefully to the counter-attack. Syria feels confident that it has the upper hand for the first time since 2003. Syria wants to show Washington what a failure it is.

http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2006/07/syria-and-hizbullah-on-attack.htm

[bemildred]

1. Interesting, thanks for posting. nt

[Vinnie From Indy]

2. You lost me at

"But in the larger arena of the Middle East, Hizbullah's attack on Israel was clearly timed to increase pressure on Israel and the US when they are most vulnerable."

LOL! Vulnerable to what? Public opinion? Has that EVER stopped Israel or this Administration on ANY issue?

I think Josh's proposition is weak. Hezbollah certainly did indicate in the past that it would abduct Israeli soldiers in an attempt to negotiate an exchange of prisoners. I think Israel was counting on it to unleash a massive assault on Hezbollah AND to use it as a pretext to attack Syria or Iran or both. Their level of response and saber rattling at Syria and Iran makes little sense unless escalating the conflict is their goal.


"Passions in the region have been inflamed against Israel and the US by Israel's aggressive incursion into Gaza and attempt to force the rapid collapse of the Palestinian Authority led by Hamas."

So much for Democracy on the march huh?

"Normally, Hizbullah would have to be very cautious about embroiling Lebanon in another round of fighting with Israel for fear that Lebanon's other sects would condemn it."

And, that Israel would stomp the crap out of what infrastructure has slowly been built since the war and the Israeli pull-out. I think IN ALL circumstances Hezbollah knows better than anyone that every action against the Israelis has a disproportionate reaction. We are seeing that right now on the TV.

"Syria is thrilled by the opportunity to undermine America and Israel's general policies in the region. For years, Asad has insisted that the US is following contradictory, hypocritical and unrealizable policies in the region and has opposed them."

Assad is not the only one that thinks Bush's ME policy is contradictory, hypocritical and unrealizable. There are people all over the world and in the US that feel the same way.

"Washington has asked Syria to help build a strong Hariri led government Lebanon, build a strong pro-American government in Iraq, and help Israel tame the Palestinians in the occupied territories while it establishes the wall through the West Bank as its border."

I thought GW Bush told us that democracy was supposed "tame" the Palestinians. There is nothing like a wall to fertilize the flower of peace.

[gula]

3. Black is white and white is black

No one remembers this
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150885870124&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull