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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 07:41 PM
Original message
Why Iraq Will End as Vietnam Did
by Martin Van Creveld
November 18, 2004

A blast from the past.

---

Second, as Dayan saw clearly enough, the campaign for hearts and minds did not work. Many of the figures being published about the progress it was making turned out to be bogus, designed to set the minds of the folks at home at rest. In other cases any progress laboriously made over a period of months was undone in a matter of minutes as the Viet Cong attacked, destroying property and killing “collaborators.” Above all, the idea that the Vietnamese people wanted to become Americanized was an illusion. All the vast majority really wanted was to be left alone and get on with their lives.

The third and most important reason why I think Vietnam is relevant to the situation in Iraq is because the Americans found themselves in the unfortunate position where they were beating down on the weak. To quote Dayan: “any comparison between the two armies… was astonishing. On the one hand there was the American Army, complete with helicopters, an air force, armor, electronic communications, artillery, and mind-boggling riches; to say nothing of ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and equipment of all kinds. On the other there were the who had been walking on foot for four months, carrying some artillery rounds on their backs and using a tin spoon to eat a little ground rice from a tin plate.”

That, of course, was precisely the problem. In private life, an adult who keeps beating down on a five year old – even such a one as originally attacked him with a knife – will be perceived as committing a crime; therefore he will lose the support of bystanders and end up by being arrested, tried and convicted. In international life, an armed force that keeps beating down on a weaker opponent will be seen as committing a series of crimes; therefore it will end up by losing the support of its allies, its own people, and its own troops. Depending on the quality of the forces – whether they are draftees or professionals, the effectiveness of the propaganda machine, the nature of the political process, and so on – things may happen quickly or take a long time to mature. However, the outcome is always the same. He (or she) who does not understand this does not understand anything about war; or, indeed, human nature.

In other words, he who fights against the weak – and the rag-tag Iraqi militias are very weak indeed – and loses, loses. He who fights against the weak and wins also loses. To kill an opponent who is much weaker than yourself is unnecessary and therefore cruel; to let that opponent kill you is unnecessary and therefore foolish. As Vietnam and countless other cases prove, no armed force however rich, however powerful, however, advanced, and however well motivated is immune to this dilemma. The end result is always disintegration and defeat; if U.S troops in Iraq have not yet started fragging their officers, the suicide rate among them is already exceptionally high. That is why the present adventure will almost certainly end as the previous one did. Namely, with the last US troops fleeing the country while hanging on to their helicopters’ skids.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/crevald1.html
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Redstone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 07:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. No question. Except that the helicopters have wheels now, not skids.
Other than that, he's right on all points.

Redstone
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frisky Donating Member (12 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
2. Well, me along with everyone else here...
...will THINK and SAY it has ended the same. No matter what is left in the middle east, we won't say it turned out well. Come on! LOL! I mean, really, be honest--wouldja EVER think he'd do anything right and say it was--EVEN IF IT WAS? Of course we wouldn't! It wouldn't matter how good things were--we're not going to SAY they're good--not because of him!
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. It's not really as bad so far.
VietNam was some 15 years, several millions of dead, horrible damage to the US global standing, economy, political fabric. This fellow is just saying that militarily Iraq is just as futile and destructive an enterprise. It really has nothing to do with Bush, he's just a tool anyway.
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Stuckinthebush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. I disagree
Edited on Thu Jul-20-06 10:39 PM by Stuckinthebush
I think the majority here, and all progressives, would be happy if things turned out well in Iraq. Who wants to see our forces decimated? Who wants to see our image in the world tarnished? Who wants to witness the slaughter of thousands of innocents? Who wishes for civil war? No one on this side. While the right wing might harbor individuals with that type of diminished ability to critically analyze their world, and to see facts as they really are; the left tends to attract thoughtful individuals who aren't blinded by their anger. Sure, we all despise George for what he has done to our nation and the world, but if by some miracle Iraq turned out to be a model example of democracy building, then we'd all scratch our heads and say, "Who'd have thunk it?"

The problem is that none of that is happening. The facts belie the fantasy of the administration and 30% (and shrinking) of mindless drones in this country. Iraq is a mess...it has been a mess from the beginning, and there is no way to "win" (whatever that means now). As in Vietnam, it is a matter of time before we accept that. George hasn't the capacity to accept that. He is dimwitted and a terribly flawed man controlled by some very evil people. They will NEVER accept defeat. This means that a Democratic President and a Democratic congress will have to clean up the mess made by foolish, selfish Republicans.

No, I hope and pray that we wake up tomorrow and things have turned out great in Iraq, but it would be silly to think it is possible. If George could turn it all around and stabilize the region, then I'd be the first to give him kudos. The reality is...he can't.

The faster the blinded 30% in this country realize they have been following a fool, the quicker we will begin to solve the problems he created.
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Sparkly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. You're a one-note theme....
"Come on! We'll always say (fill-in-the-blank) is bad no matter how great (fill-in-the-blank) is!! LOL!!!"

:eyes:

Stupidest thing on DU: People who think DU is stupid.
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HysteryDiagnosis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 08:02 PM
Response to Original message
3. Kicked kicked kicked kicked kicked and recommended most
assuredly.... and thank you for this.
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Lindacooks Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-20-06 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
5. K&R
RIght on.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 06:10 AM
Response to Original message
7. We Would Be Damned LUCKY If Iraq Ends As Well As Vietnam Did
but I for one don't see it happening. Iraq is the disaster that will keep on giving to the whole world for generations.
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megatherium Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. About the time it becomes an uncontrolled regional
conflagration, and parties to the war start bombing oil facilities and shipping, we will know how terrible a disaster this is going to be.
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-22-06 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Now, that's more like it.
We should consider ourselves DAMN lucky if we can get out with as little damage as Viet Nam.....and not saying very much.....58,000 US troops dead, millions in VN, we almost went bankrupt over that war.

We went from being a net creditor nation to a net debtor nation to the world, and that has never changed. We are now the biggest debtor nation in the world. In fact, we are broke now.

- - - - - - - -

Here are the reasons why Iraq has the potential of being 1,000 Viet Nam's rolled into one.

1) Iraq was about oil. It was about a hegemon, a Juggernaut Empire which was starting to topple. It was about an economy that was driven by oil....more oil...more each year. It was about an economy that was getting more anemic with each passing year, and yet getting fatter and more obese at the same time = the waning US economy. The situation was so desperate that the US really HAD NO CHOICE but to go in to Iraq in order to maintain its military supremacy.

2) Viet Nam was never about oil. There have been some speculations about oil deposits and control of the area, but it was never as desperate as it is today.

3) The invasion on Iraq was seen as an attack on Islam. Now suddenly, the entire muslim world is on red-alert. Bush even said things like 'crusade' and Gen. Boykin said things like 'my God was bigger than his God', appeared in church and spouted off. NOW suddenly you've got some problems. The muslim world is about 1.5 billion people, about 4 to every 1 American.

4) Viet Nam was never about religious ideology.

5) The invasion of Iraq was about a massive military effort against an unarmed civilian population. But the problem with a massive army moving is, is that it's equipped to fight massive battles against an opponent which is equally armed and they can fight it out. That army was not designed for urban warfare, a country without an army.

So what happens? Guerrilla warfare breaks out. THIS is the only type of warfare a massive army cannot fight. It's too much firepower for a small contingent which melts into the local population, which is supported by the locals. No way to win. I'm not sure if the generals have even figured this out yet.

6) Viet Nam WAS about guerrilla warfare. That's the only thing the 2 countries have in commmon.
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dmosh42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-21-06 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
8. 'Hearts and minds'
I couldn't agree more than what you said. From the beginning I knew we didn't have a clue to what these people want, or understand the power of ther religious influence on ther minds. This was all about the 'oil gang' wanting control of the output from Iraq. It never seemed to dawn on Bush that the Iran gov't never made much protest about our power grab. Now that we have decimated much of the insurgency(Sunni) for them, and we have our back to the wall, trying to figure out what to do, Iran will pull the strings to force us out. What a waste of lives!
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-22-06 02:06 PM
Response to Original message
12. Iraq will likely end up splintering apart when we leave, I fear
Unless we install another Saddam-like dictator to keep the country from falling into civil war, when we pull out, the militias will fall on each other in furious bloodshed. The Iraqi government located in the Green Zone will be overrun along with the rest of the zone by whichever militia is strongest, and the US embassy will be sacked and burned to the ground.
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