Lebanon: The Only Exit Strategy

[Behind the Aegis]

There is crisis and there is opportunity. Amid the general wringing of hands over the seemingly endless and escalating Israel-Hezbollah fighting, everyone asks: Where will it end?


The answer, blindingly clear, begins with understanding that this crisis represents a rare, perhaps irreproducible, opportunity.


Every important party in the region and in the world, except the radical Islamists in Tehran and their clients in Damascus, wants Hezbollah disarmed and removed from south Lebanon so that it is no longer able to destabilize the peace of both Lebanon and the broader Middle East.


Which parties? Start with the great powers. In September 2004 they passed U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, demanding that Hezbollah disarm and allow the Lebanese army to take back control of south Lebanon.

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[scarletwoman]

1. Sorry, a UN resolution and a quarter STILL won't buy a cup of coffee.

How many UN resolutions have been passed condemning one action or another on the part of Israel?

And how is the Lebanese army supposed to "take back control" when Lebanon as a sovereign nation-state has barely recovered from over 15 years of civil war and only JUST expelled foreign (Syrian) forces a few months ago?

Not to mention the fact that Israel has also been bombing Lebanese army bases during the past 2 weeks.

Find a way to actually empower the Lebanese army (AND the Lebanese government) and this idea might make some sense. But in the world of objective reality, it's rather useless.

Lebanon is being destroyed -- how will they ever pay for the rebuilding of all their destroyed infrastructure (the Beirut airport, roads, bridges, apartment buildings, private businesses, army barracks, etc.)?

In any case, EVERYONE ignores UN resolutions with impunity, including Israel. Why should Lebanon do any different?

AND -- I just checked your link: Krauthammer!?! You're posting Krauthammer as an argument for your position!?! One of the most unhinged and idiotic neocons allowed to spew noxious propaganda EVER!?!

Sorry. If you consider Krauthammer a legitmate source of opinion, I won't bother engaging with you any further.

sw

[Blue Meany]

2. The Only Option for Peace

In my view, the only option for peace is some kind of
settlement is based on a balance of interests rather than
power.  Suggesting that reducing the power of one side is the
soluition is simply a way of saying that their interests don't
matter, or at least don't matter nearly as much as the
interests of the other side.  That is what Israel backed by
Western powers have been doing for years, and it will continue
to feed terrorism until it stops.  After all, retail
terrorism--suicide bombers and the like--is the weapon of the
weak and desperate.

If you are looking for a reasonable and fair two state
solution, try this: One side divides the territories into two
parts, the other side gets to choose which part it will have
for its homeland.  This is what a solution that treats the
interests of both side equally might look like.  But that
would require that Israelis make sacrifices comparable to
those that Palestinians have been called to make. Is that
unreasonable?

[dmosh42]

3. It will end when Israel wants that

I think if I lived as an Israeli, and with such a history of survival, I would be very nervous looking out at the world around them. Iran is making their big move as the Shiite power in Islam. The US did the job for them in Iraq by bringing the Shiites in control. So there is no longer any worries for them about having a big Sunni military next door. Now they have a leader who said he wants to wipe Israel off the map. So the Israelis know they have a paid army next to them with some pretty sophisticated weaponry(Hezbollah), with their willingness to carry out Iran's plans. Israel is doing as always, whatever they need for survival. I think numbnuts(Bush) has been told to stay away by Israel, and they know the UN is just a bullshit organization without the US supplying the push and manpower.