Are the Shias on the brink of taking over the Middle East?

[bemildred]

This weekend, as bombing in Lebanon and rocketing in Israel continue and the diplomacy finally gets under way, intelligence analysts from Washington to New Delhi are embarking on a gigantic game of 'join the dots'. Some of the questions they are trying to answer are familiar - what is the true nature of the links between Hizbollah and Damascus and Tehran? What involvement do the Iranians have in Gaza or the West Bank? But another question is of greater significance: Are we witnessing a profound shift in the power balance of the Middle East that will determine the geopolitics of the region for decades to come?

Answers are, like most analysis of the Middle East, a mixture of hunch, experience, prejudice and fact, but it seems clear there is a new phenomenon in the region that can be described as, at the very least, 'a Shia resurgence'.

Ten or 15 per cent of the world's 1.4bn Muslims are Shia. The differences with the majority Sunnis are doctrinal, cultural and often political, and date back to a schism over who would succeed the Prophet Muhammad 1,400 years ago. For much of that time Shias were a persecuted minority, creating a powerful culture of martyrdom. However, there have been several episodes when the Shia, despite their smaller numbers, have been more dominant - most recently in 1979 when the Iranian revolution and the regime of the Ayatollah Khomeini inspired hundreds of millions of Muslims of all denominations worldwide, promoting a re-energised political Islam. For a short period, all eyes turned to the Shia. In the intervening years their star waned. Now, it is shining bright again.

Five major elements underpin the new Shia revival. The first is the sudden militancy of Iran, which has been led aggressively onto the world stage by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This new Iranian confidence is itself based on internal developments but also three main external factors: the removal of the Taliban from its eastern border in 2001; the removal of Saddam (a chauvinist Sunni) from its border; and vastly increased oil revenues.

Observer

[ShortnFiery]

1. I don't know for sure ...

But of one thing I'm certain: I'll personally break my children's legs before I'd let them go kill and die for Dear Leader's Oil Wars.

I know that sounds shocking but I've never been more serious. Both my husband and I honorably served in the military, but not our precious children. Not for these lies. :(

[Monkeyman]

2. I talked mine out of joining

[ShortnFiery]

4. Yes, that's the way ... I'm only talking about last resort scenario

Plus we have a few years before they are of Draft Age.

I'm glad that you were able to communicate with them so well. But watch out for those deceitful recruiters coming to the High Schools. :hi:

[joemurphy]

3. Yup, no doubt about it. They mean to restore the Caliphate

Our children will be wearing turbans, sipping mint tea, and bowing to Mecca.

*sarcasm*