Fight a democracy, kill the people

[bemildred]

Conventional armies can defeat guerrilla forces with broad popular support, for it is perfectly feasible to dismantle a people, destroy its morale, and if need be expel them. It has happened in history on occasions beyond count.

The British did it to the Scots Highlanders after the 1745 rising, and to the Acadians of Canada after the Seven Years' War; Ataturk did it to the Greeks of Asia Minor in 1922; and the Czechs did it to the Sudeten Germans after 1945. It seems to be happening again, as half or more of Lebanon's 1.2 million Shi'ites flee their homes. To de-fang Hezbollah implies the effective dissolution of the Shi'ite community, a third of whom live within Katyusha range of Israel.

A real war - that is, a war that is fought to a decisive conclusion - finally may have begun in the Middle East. To the extent Israel's campaign succeeds, it will have knock-on effects throughout the region, starting with another accident-prone multi-ethnic patchwork, namely Syria, with grave implications for Iraq. It is easy to say that the present war has unleashed chaos, but the question is: Upon whom? The collapse of Lebanon's Shi'ite community opens the prospect of chaos in the region, but to Israel's advantage.

Iran will face the humiliation of seeing dissolved a Shi'ite community it armed and nurtured, at the same time that Western powers demand the abandonment of its nuclear-weapons program. This will be too great for Tehran to bear; ultimately the West will have to take on Iran directly, for Iran has other means at its disposal to make life miserable for the West, including the so-called oil weapon.

Asia Times

[yurbud]

1. Germans acquiesence after World War II was because

they preferred being occupied by the allies instead of the Russians. In the Russian sector and conventional wars before World War II, locals didn't necessarily acquiesce, but were brutally put down.

It is difficult to do that today because the media might find out you slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people to make the others obey you.

[bemildred]

2. Certainly a lot harder to paper over than it used to be.

Cell phones and the internet and all. The current war in Lebanon is a perfect example. In the old days it could take weeks or months for a few grainy pictures to filter out. Now its all there in DayGlo in real time.

[yurbud]

3. yeah, I posted and sent around some of the nastiest

[bemildred]

4. And its a good thing, too. nt