Ultimately, the U.S. will attack (Iran)

[bemildred]

Some serious KoolAid here ...

---

Tanter and the members of the committee believe that the only way to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons is to replace the religious regime in Iran with a democratic regime. In their opinion, only Mujahideen-e-Khalq can do that.

However, the organization faces several significant problems: The United States has declared it a terror organization; most Iranians consider the members of MEK traitors, because they supported Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s; and they are considered a weak group, lacking broad support in Iran itself. Last week Tanter presented his thoughts and plan at the sixth conference of the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, and in a conversation with Haaretz.

Tanter, 67, is considered a genius in international relations. At the age of 25, he completed his doctorate at the University of Indiana. He belongs to the school that introduced the use of mathematical models and quantitative studies in international relations. He has taught at top American universities, and in 1974 he spent his sabbatical at Hebrew University's Institute for International Relations (in the interest of proper disclosure, I was his student at the time.)

Between one academic job and the next, Tanter filled several positions in the White House and the Pentagon, mainly during Ronald Reagan's presidency. For two years (1981-1982) he was a member of the National Security Council, in charge of Libya and Lebanon (among his other assignments, Tanter followed Israeli policy which led to the invasion at the time.) He is identified with the Republican Party and has for the most part held conservative opinions. In his opinion, however, President George W. Bush's administration is not sufficiently conservative.

Haaretz

[MnFats]

1. You know, I think down deep the * admin wants payback.....

...for the hostage-taking. For everybody else, it's in the past. For Bushies, it's like the mafia going after Joe Pesci for killing Billy Bats.

[Briar]

2. Pay back

is what has been driving the US since 9/11, both the administration and its supporters (including its nominally Christian ones). You could hear it within hours of the towers falling - the wrong path being taken and getting more and more disastrous with every vengeance-driven decision.

[saltpoint]

5. Thank you for that post, Briar. Very nicely done.

:thumbsup:

[iconoclastic cat]

6. Then shouldn't they dig Reagan up and bomb him instead? nt

[madrchsod]

3. never going to happen

no matter how much the whitehouse would like to they can`t.

[saltpoint]

4. I agree that they'd like to, but not that they will. It would provoke a

strong negative reaction politically, including from members of his own party, who may not even hold majority status in one or both chambers after this midterm election.

I believe it would provoke strong bipartisan articles of impeachment, with a correspondingly negative press.

Plus, we don't have the soldiers.

[bemildred]

7. I thought the point of the piece was to try to get a war going.

His notion that we should legitimize MEK and allow them to attack Iran from Iraq is, more than anything else in my view, a recipe for getting a war going with Iran, and most likely sending the whole Middle East up in smoke.

The whole notion of Iranians welcoming the MEK terrorists as soon as we give the word really smacks of the crap we were fed in the buildup for the present boondoggle in Iraq. It beggars description. It puts Iran in the position of Israel, MEK in the position of Hiz'bullah, and Iraq in the position of Lebanon; but now we are on the side of Hiz'bullah. It boggles the mind that this is put forward as a serious position by this "genius".

[teryang]

8. Well said BE

God save us from the so called "experts." The terrorists we support are not terrorists? So take them off the list. WTF!

[saltpoint]

9. I go by the in-house realities PNAC is now faced with.

One is "no soldiers" available.

Another is "dwindling funds."

Not to mention "evaporating public support" and "no Congressional ok."

A close DC contact of mine indicates that Warner/McCain/Graham's objection to Bush's request to torture is not just about torture, but a public display to douse a provocation of Iran.

[bhikkhu]

10. and how many of histories disasters have been planned by geniuses...

Nearly all of them, by my reckoning.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Yes, that "genius" can't tell democracy from a military coup

"People will go into the streets to demonstrate. That happened already in 1981, when half a million Mujahideen-e-Khalq supporters did that. The regime will order the demonstrators dispersed by force and suppressed. Those who will try to carry out the order are the Basaji, the armed street militia of the Revolutionary Guards. They will shoot at demonstrators, a civil war will break out, and then in the heat of the events the army will intervene, stop the bloodshed, remove the ayatollahs and take over."

But even then there will be no guarantee that Iran will stop trying to obtain nuclear weapons. We know that this is an Iranian national ambition, regardless of ideology and world view.

"Mujahideen-e-Khalq have already declared that they are not interested in manufacturing nuclear weapons. But no one cares if a democratic Iran has nuclear weapons. Who cares if Israel or India has nuclear weapons?"

So his 'plan' is for MEK to cause so much trouble that the army takes over (he at least seems to admit MEK doesn't have the popular support necessary for them to run the country). His interviewer points out, quite reasonably, that could still leave Iran trying to make a nuclear weapon. Suddenly, Tanter seems to think his scenario has left MEK in charge, in a magically democratic Iran, rather than one ruled by a military junta. "Genius"? No, "Alzheimer's sufferer", I think. The man can't remember what he was saying in his previous sentence.

[yurbud]

11. they don't give a shit about who has nukes--except that they might...

interfere with taking their oil.

But just as was the case in Iraq, it's a manufactured crisis to provide a pretext for war. But this time it feels a lot more pro forma.