WP (A01): Republican Fortunes Appear to Turn Rosier

[sabra]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/23/AR2006092301077.html

Republican Fortunes Appear to Turn Rosier

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 24, 2006; Page A01

After months of unrelenting bad news, President Bush and his Republican allies have begun to change the mood, if not the overall trajectory, of a midterm election campaign that has tilted against them for a year.

A combination of good luck -- in the form of a sharp decline in gasoline prices -- and dogged persistence by the president's political team in trying to redefine the terms of the fall campaign has given a much-needed morale boost to beleaguered Republican candidates. The ebullience many Democrats exhibited throughout the summer has given way to more cautious assessments of how difficult the final six weeks may be.

Republicans remain very much on the defensive, anticipating losses in the Senate and possible loss of control in the House. Surveys show that voters strongly disapprove of the performance of this Congress and continue to express far greater willingness to vote for Democrats over Republicans in House races in November.

...

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said conditions continue to favor his party, but many Democrats in Washington have been "out over the tips of the skis" with unduly optimistic predictions of November takeover of the House. "Anybody associated with this process that past 19 months has been nothing but pragmatic" about prospects for winning a majority, he said.

[JeffR]

1. Wow. Didn't see this coming

Did we now?

Uh huh.

ON EDIT: hopefully a sarcasm smilie is redundant...

[Skip Intro]

9. exactly what I was thinking

its in the script

[JeffR]

14. It'll be an October Surprise

if anything that goes down between now & November 7 wasn't predicted here many months ago.

[Cassandra]

2. Torture is always a hit...

or a slap.

[AX10]

3. We all knew the Post would start their pro-GOP propaganda....

after Labor Day.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. Anyone who changes their mind about the GOP based on gas prices alone....

Deserves to have their skull smashed in with a giant two by four.

[cyr330]

8. Try This

I wouldn't mind seeing a head struck with a ball peen hammer. . . .

[bluestateguy]

5. No new poll. Just a lot of impressionistic random quotes.

Get used to these types of stories for the next 45 days. In fact, it's best if they are ignored all together. Typical corporate media tripe.

[jimshoes]

6. If the Dems can't run a successful campign

against this awful administration that is the epitome of fubar, then there is no hope for us I'm afraid.

[cyr330]

7. The Dems better be ready

If they pussy out this time, what can we say?

[NJCher]

10. just part of their usual, well-orchestrated campaign

It's been stated everywhere: bush is bouncing back, the fortunes of the republicans are turning. They can't stand to be thought of as losers for even one minute, to they place stories with every media outlet that will have them about their comeback. And, of course, no one wants to vote for a loser,so they have nothing to lose with this latest pack of lies.

Here's an example. I read an article at The New Republic about the fortunes of the Democrats for this fall. The article is highly detailed and very well researched and backed up.

Yet the very next day on NPR, there was David Brooks, saying that Ohio was looking good for the GOP.






Cher

[AX10]

11. Now that David Brooks piece on NPR was pure propaganda.

The GOP is sinking faster than the Titanic in Ohio.

[NJCher]

18. yes, that's essentially what the TNR piece said

Thanks for making that connnection for me. In my haste, I didn't add that this is what TNR's article said.




Cher

[Straight Shooter]

12. Oh, goodie. Now a lot of Repubs can relax at home on Election Day.

There, there, little Repub, it's all in the bag. Why should you bother dragging yourself to the polls? See, WaPo says you're doing fine.

That's it, stay home, peruse the classifieds for a big fuggin' SUV to haul your hiney around. Don't worry, your one little vote won't make a difference.

[humbled_opinion]

13. What I say is these type of stories are good...

It give us all the more reason to stir our base support up that if we want change then we need to activate and be the change. In other words take nothing for granted... I thought for sure that the 04 election was trending Kerry and that it was next to impossible to beat him... and I blame a lot of that due to the media reporting that in fact in was Bush's election to lose it gave a lot of false sense to many Democrats that even if they couldn't make it to the polls it would be OK.... Take no chances.

[Beetwasher]

15. A combination of good luck -- in the form of a sharp decline in gasoline..

Yeah, good luck, that's it. :eyes:

It's not like the Pres. and VP are oilmen or anything.

Gotta love that "liberal" media.

[krispos42]

16. Low gas prices are an obvious vote buy. Here's proof.

This is sooooo obvious. Look at the numbers:



Now, according to the Department of Energy the average price of crude in 2004 was about $37 a barrel. In 2005 it was about $50 a barrel, up about 35% (thanks, there, Bushie. You're doin' a heckofa job).

The percentage of gasoline price that paid for crude was 47% in 2004 and 53% in 2005, according to the handy diagram above. Now we all know that in 2006 the average price of crude was probably in the low-to-mid-$60's per barrel, and the percentage cost of crude was probably 60% or nearly so.

That means that if the recent price of a barrel of crude falls by, say, 10%, then the actual price of the refined gasoline should fall between 5 and 6%.

But, in recent weeks, the price of crude had fallen to about $61/bbl, down about $11. That is a 15% drop in crude prices, which SHOULD translate into about an 8% drop in the price at the pump. With gas running at $2.90, that translates into a drop of about 23¢.

Got that? Gas prices SHOULD have fallen 23¢ to about $2.67 a gallon.

I paid $2.19 a gallon 2 days ago. That is 71¢ lower, a drop of about 24%.

Hmmm... gas SHOULD BE $2.67, but instead it's really $2.19. Six weeks before an election, the price of gasoline is dropping THREE TIMES what is should be.

That means that the current majority party is getting a political campaign contribution of about 48¢ a gallon from every gallon of gas sold in the United States.

If that doesn't reek, I don't know what does!

References:

http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html?
http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolinepricesprimer/eia1_2005primerM.html

[w4rma]

17. How is this speculation worth a front page Sunday edition story? (nt)