Iraq: Leave Or Be Forced Out

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It is not that the civil war won't get worse in Iraq; it now seems very likely that it will. But the United States is not militarily capable of preventing the worse war yet to come, and trying to do so would only start a new war between the United States and the Shiites who want the U.S. to leave. Since we cannot prevent sectarian violence, the only question is whether we leave before the inevitable confrontation with Shiites—a battle U.S. troops would certainly lose.

First, the military reality. With the buildup of the Shiite sectarian militias—and particularly the Mahdi army of Moqtada al-Sadr—the U.S. occupation force no longer represents the predominant military power in Iraq. A study issued in August by Chatham House, the influential British strategic think tank, said the Mahdi army, which was believed to have fewer than 10,000 men under arms when the United States tried to destroy it August 2004, may now be “several hundred thousand strong.” In addition, the Badr Organization, which is affiliated with the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq, has tens of thousands of Shiite militiamen.

Sadr is confident that, once the Shiite government has gotten everything it can out of the United States to strengthen Shiite forces, they can defeat the Sunnis by military force. As Moqtada al-Sadr’s spokesman Mustafa Yaqoubi told The Washington Post last month, the “other forces” would not “have the capability to match us.” Yaqoubi also made it clear that Sadr’s Mahdi army intends to force the United States out of Iraq. “If we leave the decision to , they will not leave,” he said, “To get the occupiers to leave, need some sacrifice.”

The dominant power of the Shiite militia means that it is impossible for the United States to remain longer than the Shiites believe it to be useful. As former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst Pat Lang has observed, U.S. troops depend on supply lines that run for hundreds of miles through territory controlled by the Mahdi army. Once Sadr gives the word, supplies can be squeezed enough to render military operations very difficult.

Tom Paine

[yourout]

1. Still oil there..........we ain't leaving.

Unless or until Bush is removed I do not see us leaving. Body counts mean nothing to the the psychos on the right.

[rodeodance]

2. i have read other articles about the disruption of US supply lines.

.....The dominant power of the Shiite militia means that it is impossible for the United States to remain longer than the Shiites believe it to be useful. As former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst Pat Lang has observed, U.S. troops depend on supply lines that run for hundreds of miles through territory controlled by the Mahdi army. Once Sadr gives the word, supplies can be squeezed enough to render military operations very difficult.

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3. We seem to be picking a fight with al Sadr right now ...

Militia leader's arrest sets up test for Iraq PM

BAGHDAD -- The Shiite movement loyal to radical cleric Moqtada Al Sadr threatened Tuesday to hold demonstrations in Baghdad, in a new test to the authority of Iraq's beleaguered government.

Sadr's party reacted with fury to the alleged arrest of one of its top officials, whom they said was seized overnight by US forces, and vowed to stage protests in volatile west Baghdad, the scene of recent sectarian violence.

The Sadr movement's military wing is the feared Mehdi Army, one of the powerful militias that Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki has promised to disarm amid a rising wave of inter-communal bloodshed.

"The government is determined to fight the armed groups by all political or military means," Maliki's cabinet office said Tuesday. "It will not hesitate to strike whoever tries to violate the security of the country and threaten the civil peace," the statement added.

http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20061017-091840-2854r