Doomsday Scenario? (GOP Election Prospects) --Kurtz, WaPo

[Demeter]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2006/10/17/BL2006101700385_pf.html

Doomsday Scenario?

By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 17, 2006; 8:10 AM



After poring over endless newspaper and magazine articles, television reports, Web sites and blogs, I can confidently define for you the debate raging over the midterms:

Will the Republicans lose, or will they lose big?

That is the consensus question posed by the prognosticators, handicappers and bloviators who reach fever pitch around this time. Very few seem to think that the GOP has a decent chance of holding onto both houses of Congress. Iraq, Katrina, Abramoff, DeLay, Ney, Foley--you know the litany. Country's in a sour mood. Fed up with the do-nothing Congress. Bush in the dumpster. Polls, polls and more polls. Hello, Speaker Pelosi.

But what if they're wrong?

After all, here's what the NYT wrote shortly before the 1998 midterms, as the Clinton impeachment drive was gathering steam: "With the midterm elections five days away, Republicans are tempering expectations that they can expand their majority to 60 seats in the Senate. Some experts say that Republicans could still harvest a net gain of up to four Senate seats but that the party will fall shy of five." Another piece said: "Many strategists in both parties agree that, for now, it appears that Republicans, who hold a thin 11-seat majority in the House, will pick up no more than a dozen seats there, perhaps far fewer." A WashPost piece said, "Much of the focus on Senate campaigns this fall has been on Republican hopes of making a five-seat gain, producing a 'filibuster-proof' majority of 60 GOP senators." (David Broder later tempered that by reporting there was unlikely to be much of a change in the power balance.)

As it turned out, the Democrats picked up five House seats and their strength in the Senate was unchanged. So much for the experts.

But being a journalist means never having to revisit bad predictions. If the Republicans hold on, the 2006 election results will just be dubbed a "stunning surprise," as if they were a freak storm that no one could have predicted, and a new round of prognostication will be launched.

I'm not saying I'd want to bet the mortgage on the Republicans' chances right now. But when everyone is saying the same thing, I start to wonder.

EXCELLENT SUMMARY OF MULTIPLE OPINION ARTICLES FOLLOWS

[kentjay]

1. can the polls really be

believed?rothenberg states that the polls are all over the map.don`t believe a thing from labor day until nov.7th.

[yellowcanine]

3. Yes. The polls get better as we approach election day. My understanding

is that part of the reason for the greatest poll failure of all time in the U.S. - the '48 "Dewey Defeats Truman" fiasco was because the major polling firms essentially stopped polling in mid-October.

[yellowcanine]

2. Actually those '98 predictions were not that far off. "Pubs to pick up

no more than a dozen seats, perhaps far fewer"....essentially that is saying it is a tossup. Dems picked up 5. Within margin or error, I would say. Same with the Senate. Prediction was not much of a change - guess what - no change. Spot on. What pundits may have been saying earlier than mid October doesn't count. Remember it was just a month ago when the pundits were saying the Dems probably had no chance at the Senate and might not even get the House. Now they are saying the Dems have a fair shot at the Senate and the House is close to a lock. I think we have a slightly better than even chance at the Senate and at least a 75% chance of taking the House. Events can still change things but the window on "October Surprises" is closing fast. Actually, we had the October Surprise - FoleyGate the last week of September.

[kentjay]

4. whats really bad is the phrase

american values.what exactly are american values,historically they are mythical.we all but destroyed peoples lives,japanese,native americans,africans,the irish in the northeast,the italians had to take the law into their own hands to get justice.i mean just take a look at our american values during the last 6 years,crooks,liars,deception,murder,torture,violation of the constitution a thousand fold.damn what are our fucking values.example of further crap:abortion,why is it in the courts,its not in the constitution,nor is 2 people of the same sex being married in the constitution.so its not against the constitution.why doesn`t the government leave people alone?do you think people want to be gay,or black or white or female,people are what they are,yet it always comes back to values that don`t exist.the evilgelicals cast stones as if they are the ones that decide who gets into the mythical heaven,they don`t follow the teachings of the bible that god was suppose to have authored,gees i get sick of these people.i feel like ranting until nov. 7th,but i`ll leave y`all alone and say i`m sorry.peace.

[kentjay]

5. i just saw where a poll stated

that 1 out of 3 people intend to vote for independents.this would hurt democrats.rove is estatic if this is true.