"5 Myths About Turning Out the Vote"

[greeneyedboy]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701474.html

Five Myths About Turning Out the Vote - Michael McDonald
If you're an upstanding U.S. citizen, you'll stand up and be counted this Election Day, right? Well, maybe not. Just because Americans can vote doesn't mean they do. But who shows up is what decides the tight races, which makes turnout one of the most closely watched aspects of every election -- and one that has fostered a number of myths. Here are five, debunked:
1. Thanks to increasing voter apathy, turnout keeps dwindling.
. . . {debunked: turnout is holding steady} . . .

2. Other countries' higher turnout indicates more vibrant democracies.
. . . {debunked: considering how many elections there are in the U.S., this is not true.) . . .

3. Negative ads turn off voters and reduce turnout.
. . . {debunked: apparently not.} . . .

4. The Republican "72-hour campaign" will win the election.
. . . {debunked: the GOP system works only in low turnout elections, with a clear personal target, e.g. John Kerry. the GOP now has no clear target, but Democratic voters do--which means Dems will benefit.} . . .

5. Making voter registration easier would dramatically increase turnout.
. . . {debunked: easier reg. doesn't help significantly, but election-day registration would increase turnout.} . . .

read the actual analysis at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701474.html

[applegrove]

1. Sorry but with 35% of Americans not voting..that is pathetic. Work to GOTV.

Most of that 35% are poor or young. In other words..DEMOCRATS.

[nashville_brook]

2. democrats traditionally have higher turnout than repubs

according to the Pew Center for People and the Press ... discussed on All Things Considered last Thursday.

btw, here's the complete poll results they were discussing....

Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead in Competitive Districts
GOP Troubles Extend into Home Territory
Released: October 26, 2006
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=293

With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, the Democrats not only continue to maintain a double-digit advantage nationally, but also lead by the same margin in the competitive districts that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives. Nationally, the Democrats hold a 49%-38% lead among registered voters, and a nearly identical 50%-39% lead among those voters most likely to cast ballots on Nov. 7.

An oversample of voters in 40 competitive districts ­ identified by a consensus of political analysts ­ shows that voting intentions in the battleground districts are about the same as they are in the "safe" House districts. Among registered voters, the Democrats lead by 11 points in competitive districts (50%-39%) and by the same margin in safe districts (49%-38%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 1,552 registered voters - including 528 who reside in competitive districts - shows that Iraq continues to be the dominant issue for voters. More than four-in-ten voters (45%) view the situation in Iraq as the most important, or second most important issue in their vote, the highest percentage for six issues tested. In competitive districts, slightly more (50%) cite Iraq as a top issue in their vote.

Public views of Iraq continue to be overwhelmingly negative, with a solid majority of Americans (59%) saying the U.S. military effort there is not going well. Republicans, who have been steadfast backers of the war, are now rendering more negative judgments about how things are going in Iraq.

[Stevepol]

3. Like all such analyses, this fails to take into acct the voting machines.

Thus, they use Kerry as an example of how a "clear personal target" helps make a 72-hr campaign work, but the fact is that Kerry won the 04 election by a wide margin.

After the 06 cycle, the spin will as usual ignore the effect of the voting machines. I hope and pray that the Dems sweep Congress, but I doubt they will. They will most likely win a few races and the rest will "miraculously" be held by the Repubs despite pre-election polls and exit polls (if there are any) that show the contrary. The voting machines are too strong and not enough places have a required audit in place.

But of course the results will never be questioned by the WP or the NYT or anybody else when they start spinning explanations for the alleged "results."

[greeneyedboy]

4. the article is about turnout, period.

Kerry won, AND turnout was high on both sides. did you not perceive any personal animosity toward Kerry in the swiftboat stuff, the flipflop nonsense, & the "French" slurs?

tired of every topic on DU getting hijacked by the voting-machine anxiety. (i know all about the fraud, but unlike many "concerned" souls on DU, i don't think ranting here is the way to address the problem, and i do want people to help WIN while preparing to fight against fraudulent "losses".)

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. A Voting Day holiday would increase turnout. But it would have to

be a mid-week day, so people don't roll it into a 3 day weekend.

[greeneyedboy]

6. week-long elections with a holiday on the last day of the voting period.

[RaleighNCDUer]

7. I'd buy that . nt

[RobertSeattle]

8. I agree!

Why does it have to be "a day"? I've voted absentee for the past 10 years and I always vote 2 or 3 weeks prior to the actual election date so I can laugh at the Republican auto dialers.

[greeneyedboy]

9. and you let Dem GOTV teams focus on other people who need to hear from them.