I Suddenly Hear Wolves Howling In The Distance (Mogambo)

[Tace]

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

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-- I am proud to announce my fabulous new Mogambo Theory, which I call Mogambo Theory Of Economic Spaghetti (MTOES). The best way to explain it is to imagine that you are sitting at the table, having dinner at the in-laws, in your new clothes, and you are eating spaghetti. Being the careful little person that you are, you put on a bib to protect your clothes, and you position your napkin in your lap just perfectly so, and you try to eat very carefully and slowly, instead of wallowing in your food and gobbling it down with your bare hands like you do at home, making those disgusting, pig-like slobbering sounds and listening to your family yelling "Ewww, dad! Gross!" In short, you have taken every possible, prissy precaution to protect yourself.

Like most economic systems, the situation is usually in hand, bite after bite, and everything is fine, even when her dad asks about my "intentions" and "future plans" concerning his daughter, since we seem to survive by borrowing money from him, and I almost choke to death on a meatball as I angrily think to myself, "You want the truth, old man? You can't handle the truth!"

Then "it" happens! Without warning, some errant combination of unseen forces, some remarkable coincidence of unpredictable vectors, occurs, and a tiny, little, eensy-weensy drop of red sauce is suddenly, and mysteriously, propelled up, up, up in a perfect parabolic trajectory, vastly exceeding the statistical averages of "droplet splatter dispersion," and, arcing up and out, lands (blip!) on the sleeve of my, I mean your, shirt. One, single, tiny red dot of marinara sauce in an ocean of crisp whiteness and starch.

This, then, is the fabled chaotic and destructive "fat tail" of probability distributions, and it is the random, improbable, wildly-chaotic event that causes the messing of a shirt, the failure of Long Term Capital Management, and all of the other systems based on probability that exclude the guaranteed statistical certainty of a catastrophic event of some kind, especially ones with so infinitely many variables.

The only other 100% sure-fire thing in economics is the probability that an economic system based on the over-creation of fiat currency and/or insane levels of fractional-reserve banking credit will implode, just as they have imploded every time in history that they have ever been tried by a government that is so brain dead, or so ignorant, or so insane, or so corrupt as to try it, given the absolute, provable certainty that trying it is guaranteed to fail and cause, as it always seemed at the time, unimaginable suffering, ruination and misery.

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