Crisis in Lebanon / Siniora's government on the road to collapse

[Behind the Aegis]

Even without the warnings emanating from the White House, it is clear that Lebanon is embroiled in a severe political crisis. Since the end of the war in Lebanon, and especially over the last two weeks, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been honing his demands of Fouad Siniora's government.

Ostensibly, Nasrallah is complaining that the government has not done enough to rehabilitate the country after the war; he also charges that even when the government does help the needy, it discriminates against sectors affiliated with Hezbollah. As a result, he is demanding the establishment of a national unity government in which the Shi'a parties - Amal and Hezbollah - would have greater representation.

Currently, they comprise only five of the 24 ministers; Nasrallah wants to increase this to one-third. He also wants to add representatives of Michel Aoun's party, which, like Hezbollah, is pro-Syrian. This would effectively give the Shi'as a veto over important decisions, since under Lebanon's constitution, such decisions must be approved by two-thirds of the cabinet.

Siniora opposes a unity government, as this would probably restore Syria's influence over Lebanese politics, constrain Lebanon's economic and foreign policy, and stall the probe into the murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. He argues that the election results, which gave the anti-Syrian bloc about 70 percent of the seats in parliament, should be honored, and rules out a unity government unless it agrees in advance to accept the seven-point plan that ended the war.


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[Nimrod2005]

1. 1) Fuck Israel, attack on Lebanon weakened the govt. 2) Lebanon needs to sign

An peace treaty with Israel IMMEDIATELY!!! If not sooner...

There is no future with Hizballah or their types for the Lebanese people...

[Igel]

2. Siniora's screwed.

Will he have the will and fortitude to resist intimidation, or buckle under and truly earn the mocking name I use for him, "La Signora". (I reserve my mocking for people from cultures where honor is paramount--culturally sensitive and all that.)

I'm betting no. When you fear violence more than oppression, and are more afraid of fighting than you are desirous of victory, you're asking for oppression and inviting people to defeat you.

Siniora's afraid. God's Help--Nasrallah--smells it in the air. Dog's have a great sense of smell.

[bemildred]

3. Gee, who could have predicted this?

"Seventh, Hezbollah's position in Lebanon has been immeasurably strengthened, as has the position of its most important ally. At the height of the conflict, Lebanese Christians took Hezbollah refugees into their homes. The Christian leader Michel Aoun openly supported Hezbollah's fight. One Hezbollah leader said: "We will never forget what that man did for us, not for an entire generation." Aoun's position is celebrated among the Shi'ites, and his own political position has been enhanced.

The Sunni leadership, on the other hand, fatally undermined itself with its uncertain stance and its absentee landlord approach to its own community. In the first week of the war, Hezbollah's actions were greeted with widespread skepticism. At the end of the war its support was solid and stretched across Lebanon's political and sectarian divides. The Sunni leadership now has a choice: it can form a unity government with new leaders that will create a more representative government or they can stand for elections. It doesn't take a political genius to understand which choice Saad Hariri, the majority leader in the Lebanese parliament, will make."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ14Ak01.html