History Could Repeat Horribly After Washing Of Hands.

[Matilda]

Whatever way you put it, the US is now in the "exit strategy" phase of its intervention
in Iraq, even if a seriously weakened Bush continues to talk - and believe - that victory
remains possible. There is a blizzard of opinions being published in foreign policy journals
and discussed on the opinion pages of American newspapers about what a good - or the least bad -
exit strategy might look like.

(snip)

What is not much discussed, and what to me seems to be a pressing moral imperative, is that
whatever is done, the Iraqi people must not be abandoned, left to the mercy of a failed state in
which death squads, terrorists, militias and insurgents are unboudn, released from all restraints.

(snip)

Not only is James Baker, the co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group, a former secretary of state in
the elder Bush's regime a so-called "foreign policy realist" so too are most of the study groups
advisers. These realists reckon there is no moral dimension to foreign policy, just perceived
national interest. As a consequence, having decided no to remove Saddam Hussein from power after
the first Gulf War in 1991, they encouraged an uprising against Saddam by Shiites and Kurds which
resulted in the massacre of hundreds of thousands of people. These realists did nothing to stop
the massacres on the basis that US national interest was not at stake.

I fear that the Iraqi people, the vast majority of whom are not members of death squads and
militias or the insurgency, but rather are their victims, are about to be betrayed again. Their
1991 betrayers may again be in a position to decide their fate.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/history-could-repeat-horribly-after-handwashing/2006/11/12/1163266407608.html


A very thoughtful article from The Sydney Morning Herald's Washington correspondent. There is no
easy answer, but I'm afraid Bush and Co. are going to be looking for one, regardless of the result
for the Iraqi people. The dirtiest of the dirty tricks.

[AIJ Alom]

1. IMHO, We need to get out of Iraq. Iraq will stabilize itself.

Once we are out, Iraq will stabilize itself.

The truth is yes we broke it, our current administration did a piss poor job of trying to fix it. Our soldiers cannot be the Iraqi police force any longer. It is time to get out of Iraq and bring the Baathist to the table. Partition the nation into three if it will appease all sides involved and let them handle the Al Qaeda threat within their midst.

An additional option is to invest more heavily in reconstruction, but let this be managed by someone other than the United States. Troops and security forces from Arab nations, through the UN, to help reign in the chaos.

Yes there will be blood and yes there will be moments when we will regret over and over going there in the first place. But let it not be any more American blood or greater amounts of blood spilled in the quest to bleed Americans. I am of the strong opinion that the violence will subside once we are out.

The majority of Iraqis wanted revolution. Our president, foolishly gave it to them. Now they must deal with the chaos alone. Good luck to them.

[brokensymmetry]

2. Yes, they're about to be abandoned.

While that is a moral wrong - I, for one, am not
willing to waste even one more American life,
nor one more American dollar, on Dumbya's mess.
Perhaps that makes me a bad person. Sorry, but
I don't care. The thought of all my dead and
maimed countrymen blinds me to all other considerations.

And, I'll work to make sure my representatives
embrace my views on this one.

[On the Road]

3. Which History Repeats Itself is an Open Question

I doubt the first Gulf War is the right comparison, since the Sunni Baathists were in firm control of the military and power structure. Central control is now weakened and split among divergent groups.

The most optimistic scenarios are the French leaving Algeria, followed by the US leaving Vietnam. A less optimistic scenario is suggested by the British withdrawal from South Asia. There were opposing ethnic groups, each with their own newly created nation. The British withdrawal in 1947 resulted in chaos, bloodshed, and both Hindus and Muslims leaving their homes and fleeing. Reportedly, over a million people died in the rush to the borders.

That last one is what I'm afraid of, especially if Iraq is split into several countries. It would not bode well for anti-war sentiment in this country.

[bemildred]

4. Betraying friends is what the US foreign policy wonks do best.

They are really good at holding stupid grudges too.