Saudis Will Fill Vacuum Left by US in Iraq and Challenge Iran's Pretensions by Steve Clemons, Huff P

[applegrove]

Saudis Will Fill Vacuum Left by US in Iraq and Challenge Iran's Pretensions
by Steve Clemons,
Huffington Post
November 29, 2006


"The preamble:

In February 2003, a month before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be "solving one problem and creating five more" if he removed Saddam Hussein by force. Had Bush heeded his advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of full-blown civil war and disintegration.
One hopes he won't make the same mistake again by ignoring the counsel of Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that "since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited." If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.

Over the past year, a chorus of voices has called for Saudi Arabia to protect the Sunni community in Iraq and thwart Iranian influence there. Senior Iraqi tribal and religious figures, along with the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and other Arab and Muslim countries, have petitioned the Saudi leadership to provide Iraqi Sunnis with weapons and financial support. Moreover, domestic pressure to intervene is intense. Major Saudi tribal confederations, which have extremely close historical and communal ties with their counterparts in Iraq, are demanding action. They are supported by a new generation of Saudi royals in strategic government positions who are eager to see the kingdom play a more muscular role in the region.

Because King Abdullah has been working to minimize sectarian tensions in Iraq and reconcile Sunni and Shiite communities, because he gave President Bush his word that he wouldn't meddle in Iraq (and because it would be impossible to ensure that Saudi-funded militias wouldn't attack U.S. troops), these requests have all been refused. They will, however, be heeded if American troops begin a phased withdrawal from Iraq. As the economic powerhouse of the Middle East, the birthplace of Islam and the de facto leader of the world's Sunni community (which comprises 85 percent of all Muslims), Saudi Arabia has both the means and the religious responsibility to intervene.

...........SNIP"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/saudis-will-fill-vacuum-l_b_35141.html

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. the Sauds are having more and friendlier contacts with

Iran. partly out of necessity, partly because they are begining to hold similar opinions about the president.

There were several articles, one from Der Spiegal and another from Russia, which outlined how they have much in common. Extremists (ultra wahabis in Saudi Arabia, Al Qaida in Iran) pose serious threats to both nations. While they are both somewhat conservative in their beliefs, both nations view the ultra extremists as a clear and present danger to their nations.

Assuming we don't do something really stupid like blow up Iran with a porta-nuke, a hush-a-bomb or a series of cruise missiles directed to their research labs, Iran and Saudi Arabia have a couple of the most stable, working governments in the muddle east. Geographically, they share the same interests. Pragmatically, they also share some of the same results.
Given that 80% of Sauds practice some form of Wahabism, related to Sunnis, and 70% of Iran are Shia, there are natural tensions. But, the elephant in the shop wears a George Bush mask and that can make temporary allies, if not friends, of these two countries.

[applegrove]

2. I hope you are right. Almost anything would be better than Iraq this past

month.