The coming Sunni-Shi'ite showdown

[bemildred]

WASHINGTON - After indications that Saudi Arabia would be forced to step into Iraq in the event of a US withdrawal to counter Iran-backed Shi'ite militias, Saudi officials have been silent. But the message is clear, despite a haze of diplomatic intrigue in Washington: Arab Sunni governments are rallying to stymie Tehran's influence across the Middle East in what is shaping up to be a showdown.

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That Saudi Arabia would actively support the same Sunni insurgents who have viciously fought and killed US forces based in Iraq is not far-fetched. Sunni Muslims in the Arabian Peninsula have strong historical and communal ties with Iraqi Sunnis currently threatened by Shi'ite militias and would not stand by idle were wholesale killing to ensue. Moreover, there is legitimate fear that a Shi'ite-dominated Iraq under the influence of Iran would pose a serious threat to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

"The Saudis are wholly dependent on the United States for their national security and rely on US troops to block Iran from advancing beyond Iraq and into the oil-rich Saudi deserts," according to Stratfor. "Without a buffer zone in Iraq, Riyadh's need for US troops in Iraq soars."

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It remains to be seen whether open cooperation will emerge between Israel and Arab Sunni countries to confront a common enemy, but Riyadh was conspicuously quiet during Israel's heavy-handed campaign in Lebanon to root out the Iran-backed Shi'ite Hezbollah militia. The latest scene of hostilities is the Palestinian territories, where Iran sustains Islamic Hamas with suitcases packed with millions of dollars in cash while the Saudis have reportedly promised rival President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement funding to pay salaries and gird security forces.

Asia Times

[sui generis]

1. that's a day late analysis

the showdown is already happening - and if you can believe the Iraqi war casualty numbers of 655,000 dead in sectarian fighting and violence, I'd say we were much worse for Iraq than Saddam Hussein ever was at his vilest.

[GreenZoneLT]

2. Odds of them talking are much higher with us out of the way

One thing I've noticed in Iraq; the Iraqi government seems hideously corrupt and inefficient, but their solution to local clan-vs.-government fighting seems to be to get together and drink tea and work out a deal. Unlike the U.S., who come in shooting at anyone with a weapon, cordon off the town, search every building and piss off everyone in a 100-mile radius.

Either way, the fighting usually kicks back up again, but the Iraqis seem to kill a lot fewer people by being more interested in peace than winning.