Democratic sweep may be long-lasting!

[RiverStone]

Now - here's a definite feel-good view of the future! :)

* * * * * * *

Chicago Tribune
December 26, 2006


There is strong evidence that November's Democratic sweep may be more than a one-shot reaction to an unpopular president and his war--it might be one of those pivotal elections leading to a lasting, long-term majority in the Congress and potentially the presidency.

Democrats took control of Congress, making history by taking 30 House and six Senate seats without losing a single incumbent or open race. This was especially impressive against a House so gerrymandered that 95 percent of incumbents tend to keep their seats. In all, nearly 58 percent of the total national congressional vote went to the Democrats, as did more than 55 percent of the Senate vote (if you include votes cast for two independents who caucus with the Democrats).

Further, another dozen House seats that stayed Republican were decided by extremely narrow margins--many under 1,000 votes. In 2008 those seats will again be vulnerable, especially in the larger turnout expected in a presidential year, although a few of this year's upsets could revert back.

Yes, voters reacted against the war and corruption, but also the two-tiered economy, with its increasing income inequality. Many of the incoming senators and House members ran and won on populist economic issues, which have long been a unifying Democratic theme--downplaying some of the more divisive social issues. Though this economy looks good by traditional yardsticks, it clearly doesn't work for large numbers of middle- and working-class families.

Economics was the glue that bound together Franklin Roosevelt's coalition and it promises again to solidify a majority in the coming years.

Demographic change also is working to the Democrats' advantage as more and more Latinos and Asians register and vote. Republicans made heavy inroads into the Latino vote in 2004, capturing close to 45 percent for George W. Bush, but blew it all and more this year with their torrent of anti-immigrant campaigning. Democrats won 70 percent of the Latino vote and are likely to retain that and gain more in years ahead. This is a factor not only in the Southwest, but also in the Midwest.

Adding to Republican problems, they will have to defend 22 of the 33 Senate seats up in 2008, including four or five vulnerable senators such as Minnesota's Norm Coleman. They also face the possible retirement of perhaps four more senators, leaving open seats that always are more competitive.

more:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0612260098dec26,1,4328628.story?coll=chi-opinionfront-hed

[wryter2000]

1. I love this part

Yes, voters reacted against the war and corruption, but also the two-tiered economy, with its increasing income inequality...Though this economy looks good by traditional yardsticks, it clearly doesn't work for large numbers of middle- and working-class families

If people have caught onto the fact that the R's aren't going to do them any good financially, they'll finally give them the boot. For too many years, they've bought the "dems will raise your taxes!" nonsense.

[roamer65]

2. 2006 was rather similar to the 1930 midterm.

A sizable Rethug majority was brought to near parity after that one. In 1932, it got even better.:evilgrin:

Raisinbrain is the best gift to the Dems since Herbert Hoover.

[dave_p]

10. Good analogy

That's what I've been thinking... 1896, 1930/32, 1966/68.... We're a few years overdue for another long-run reversal of fortune, maybe because of right-wing media saturation or the bizarre appeal of the GOP's twisted pseudo-Christianity. But in politics, nothing lasts for ever.

[keroro gunsou]

16. i object...

to you calling bush a raisinbrain. raisins have many uses and are tasty in cookies.

[whistle]

23. And Bush causes most people to toss their cookies

:puke:

[Vincardog]

3. If this congress sets a true populist progressive agenda it will be a rout.

First we have to have paper ballots and random audits of elections.
Second we have to restore the FAIRNESS DOCTRINE.
Third we have to raise the minimum wage and make it a living wage.
Forth we have to undo all the fascist acts of this mis-administration. The (UN)Patriotic acts must be rescinded.
Fifth All the flat earth unfair trade deals have to be renegotiate with an eye to making them fair for working people and respect the environment.
Sixth5 all the misdeeds of the NeoConvicts need to be publicly investigated and repudiated

This will lead to the public demanding the Impeachment and removal of the whole evil cabal infesting our white house and government.

Then we can move on to public financing of elections and a constitutional amendment forbidding using eminent domain to profit CORPORATIONS.

[Joe Chi Minh]

8. That "eminent domain" thing sounds utterly evil - beyond belief in

a putative democracy.

[Vincardog]

9. Check into the privatization of the public highways planned by the evil doers

search the web for the Trans Texas Corridor or the ave. of the Americas.

[corkhead]

11. excellent consise agenda for the new congess!

I couldn't have said it better myself.

:toast:

[Vincardog]

12. feel free to pass it on to your elected representatives. :),

[Eric J in MN]

18. Democrats should ban the use of eminent domain for...

...any property which is intended to ultimately be owned by the private sector.

If the government must seize private property, then we should ALL own that property. A PUBLIC road. A PUBLIC railroad.

[RProser]

19. The recent widely-publicized eminent domain case, was Kelo vs. the City of

New London, CT. Stephens wrote the majority opinion and was joined by Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg and Breyer - they allowed the siezure of private property in order to give it to a private sector company which could generate more tax revenue than could the original homeowners. It was the conservative wing - Rehnquist, Scalia, Thomas (and swing vote O'Connor) that unsuccessfuly fought for the little guys being able to keep their homes.

Is this a first for DU - siding with Scalia & Thomas against Stephens & Ginsburg?

[IthinkThereforeIAM]

26. Who is "Stephens"...

... do you mean John Paul Stevens?

[Eric J in MN]

32. Kelo is the only case I know of, in which a lot of DUers...

...sided with the most conservative Justices in a split decision.

[NewJeffCT]

22. I would tackle the minimum wage first

If we tackle that, and a few other economic issues first, we will show the people that we're on their side. Then, we can move on to more complex issues.

If our first acts are implementing paper ballots and restoring the Fairness Doctrine, we'd be gravely at risk of the media and Republicans accusing us of just focusing on partisan issues and not issues that help the average American.

Yes, I realize that paper ballots & the fairness doctrine would help Democrats far more over time... but, a person that is trying to get by on the minimum wage is not thinking of 2008 and 2010, they are worried about next week's groceries and next month's rent.

[reprobate]

27. I agree with all your points, but ask a question:

Since Dems get their campaign funds from the same rich that the rethugs do, do you think it possible that they will let anyone shoot holes in their luxury yacht?

[Parisle]

4. It sure looked this way....

--- A lasting trend in the making. Legislative majorities should improve further in 2008,... and we'd damn sure better take the White House.

[Larkspur]

5. If Dems like Emanuel and Hoyer sell the Dem Party to corporate interests...

and continue shipping good paying jobs overseas, the Dems won't hold power for long.

[depakid]

14. They certainly won't

That's what cost us the last 12 years of nightmares in the first place.

The Dems have a LOT of housecleaning to do themselves- and if they refuse to keep discipline among their DINO's and allow them to continue to enable and legitimize far right policies, then they their majority will be short lived, and they'll lose the presidency yet again.

[danhan]

15. You can cross your fingers but

Hoyer has been my congressman for a long time and he may talk a good game but he has always been Mr. Status Quo. Time will tell.

[formercia]

6. Fearless Leader will do for the GOP

what Reconstruction did for the Republicans in the South after the Civil War.

[mopinko]

7. and in the chicago tribune, too!

nitpick, tho. we lost at least one open seat- rahm's handpicked candidate, tammy duckworth lost. iirc, a couple of his other pets lost as well, but i don't know what the status of those seats was before. they looked like sure things to him, tho.

[AussieDave]

20. The seat in which Tammy Duckworth ran was Henry Hyde's old seat

and therefore considered a Republican open seat. No open seats previously held by Democrats were lost to Republicans.

[Tin Man]

13. Hoo boy...

Karl Rove was saying the same thing only 2 years ago.

[Eric J in MN]

17. The seats we narrowly lost will be vulnerable, but so will...

...the seats we narrowly won.

[NewJeffCT]

21. Nice to hear, but,

With the media machine propping up Republicans, it will be an uphill battle.

[geardaddy]

24. I like this part:

Adding to Republican problems, they will have to defend 22 of the 33 Senate seats up in 2008, including four or five vulnerable senators such as Minnesota's Norm Coleman.

Ol' Tooth Cap Normie will be crushed by Al Franken!

[pacalo]

25. What's amazing & gratifying is that, to get rid of the Republicans, all the D's have to do

is their j-o-b: oversight hearings on all the damage/corruption done by this administration & his rubber-stamping, Republican-majority congress. Oversight is their duty, says the Constitution.

Pure poetry.

[Odin2005]

28. There is a 70 to 80-year long cycle in American politics

Every 35 to 40 years there is an abrupt shift from community-mindedness to individual-mindedness and vice-versa. We are currenlty at an end of an individual-minded era that started in 1968, the period between 1932 and 1968 was a community-minded era. The start of a Community-minded era is always triggered by a national crisis that forces people to reverse the decay of civic institutions that occured in the individual-minded era. The crisis ends around half-way through the community-minded era and the second half of the era is marked by a booming economy. An individual-minded era starts when the generation born after the national crisis (such as the Baby Boomers) come of age and revolt against the conformism that develops in the post-crisis part of the community minded era.


You can see this individualist vs communitarian pattern if you list the living generations from oldest to youngest based on the time period that generation came of age:


Lost/WW1 Generation: materialist-individualist (Prohibition, 20s-era lassez-faire, and WW1)
GI/WW2 Generation: materialist-communitarian (The Great Depression and WW2)
Silent/Beatnik Generation: spiritualist-communitarian: (Post-war boom, early civil rights movement, birth of Rock 'n Roll)
Boom Generation: spiritualist-individualist (University unrest, anti-war protests, counterculture, identity politics, birth of the Religious Right)
Generation X: materialist-individualist (Reaganomics, Neo-Liberalism, etc.)
Millenial Generation: materialist-communitarian (Netroots, etc)

[Tekla West]

31. One of many

There are several cycles, many may be converging at the same time, which is when major change happens. It would be interesting to overlap that generational deal (accounting for a subtle but real 'speed up' of the time between generations) the political cycle, economic, and so forth and see how many are now converging.

[Odin2005]

33. I suggest reading "The Forth Turning" by historians Bill Strauss and Neil Howe.

They make a good argument that there are several important cycles that are syncronized to create a 80-year-long, 4-part cycle in the national mood.

[drone]

29. Repukes failed to deliver

The dumb voters gave the repukes a chance to deliver and they blew it.

Let us hope the voters do not try something stupid AGAIN in this century.

[PegDAC]

30. 'Scuse me?

Didn't Harold Ford, Jr., lose Frist's open seat in Tennessee?

[drone]

34. E Tennessee

You have to understand those "hillbillies" over in East Tennessee. TVA pulled them out of destitution. If East Tennessee floated out into the ocean and sank, nobody would miss it. There is nothing over there worth salvaging.

Harold is from West Tennessee.

[AussieDave]

35. By "open race" they mean a seat vacated by a Democrat

All the seats (House and Senate) vacated by Democrats were won by Democrats. That's what makes the 2006 mid-tems so remarkable.

[kenfrequed]

36. As a Minnesotan

I promise you that Coleman is on his way packing in 2008.

Few here like him very much and he is widely precieved as having no depth and being little more than a puppet for Bush. Additiounally there are a couple of exciting candidates that are poised to take the field. Probably the most entertaining of these candidates is Al Franken who would easily stomp Coleman in a public debate.

[yurbud]

37. too late to rec, so kick anyway

Dems need to make this message clear then actually legislate for the middle and working class.