As the Iraq surge builds, so do foreboding trends
Four months ago, President Bush snubbed popular opinion and announced plans to send more than 20,000 additional U.S. troops to Iraq in a last-ditch effort to stabilize Baghdad. In another four months, the military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, is to report on the impact of the "surge."
At this midpoint between announcement and verdict, it is too early to say whether the surge is working. Not all the extra troops are in place. Nor is there agreement on how to measure progress. But the preliminary indicators are far from encouraging:
•Spiraling dangers for Americans. In April, 104 U.S. troops died in Iraq, the highest monthly total this year. The first half of May has been equally deadly. The capture over the weekend of three U.S. soldiers by militants linked to al-Qaeda added a macabre new dimension to the conflict.
Bush, Petraeus and others have cautioned that the new approach will bring more casualties because smaller U.S. units are mingling more with Iraqis rather than withdrawing to fortified bases. But it will be hard to spin higher U.S. casualties as "progress" for long. If Americans come to believe that the sacrifice in blood is making no difference, or merely an effort to save face and delay an inevitable withdrawal, even the remaining shallow support for the surge will evaporate.
•Paralysis in the Iraqi government. For all of the promises of Iraqi leaders, even some basic markers of unity — such as a law to share oil revenues — have stalled. The latest session of parliament descended into a shouting match. U.S. officials have had to urge parliament to cancel a planned two-month summer vacation that underscored the seeming lack of urgency in Baghdad.
•The "Whack-a-Mole" problem. The extra troops sent to Iraq are mostly concentrated in Baghdad. The idea is to secure the capital so that the government can work at unifying and running the country.
But violence is exploding in other areas as militants relocate, something they have done before. Army Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, the U.S. commander in Diyala province, north of Baghdad, says he does not have enough troops to cope with the upsurge. The extended and added tours, however, have stretched the strength of troops to the limits.
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http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/2007-05-14-iraq-surge_N.htm?csp=34