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If, or when, the rest of the world decides to stop funnelling the $US2 billion per working day that the US needs to pay for its spending, Henry says we're all in for "an economic adjustment of major proportions".
American interest rates would skyrocket and the greenback would drop like a stone, for starters, which is why Henry argued so hard for the Reserve Bank board to drop interest rates pre-emptively this year.
One of Henry's colleagues on the Reserve Bank board, Warwick McKibbin, is not concerned about the quantum of America's record 5 per cent, $US500 billion current account deficit, but he is very worried about its composition.
An ANU economist and professorial fellow at the Lowy Institute, Professor McKibbin is doing the sums on the incomprehensibly large $US7000 billion in tax cuts and security spending - 10 times Australia's annual economic output - that has been lumped on to America's 10-year deficit projection since Bush's election three years ago.
His modelling concludes that the deficit "explosion" would leave the US economy "unambiguously worse off in the medium and long term".
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http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/04/1073151209953.html