From OpenLeft:
The United States: An Empire In Permanent Decline?by: Chris Bowers
Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 22:36:42 PM EDT
Over the past month, in discussions with several different groups of friends, the topic of "American decline" has repeatedly arisen. Even though this is purely anecdotal, as it is drawn from conversations within my own social circles, it has come up so often of late, and people's conclusion seems so uniform, that I wonder if a new zeitgeist is forming: America's relative power and influence in the world is in now permanent decline.
Now, the decline of America's image throughout the world as a result of the Bush administration's actions in Iraq, or its refusal to sign treaties like Kyoto, has been the focus of progressive messaging against the administration for some time. However, what I am trying to describe here is a little different than that, and perhaps is a conclusion that was difficult to see before the American population began to reject the Bush administration's policies, and before the sweeping electoral gains that were made in 2006. While the Bush administration has pursued policies that have seriously damaged our image around the world, and while these policies have hasten the relative decline of our power, ultimately there is probably nothing that can be done to stop the decline altogether. We can change course, and slow the decline. We can also adopt a new diplomatic outlook that will improve our image. Still, in the end, after over two centuries of virtually uninterrupted growth in our relative power and influence, we probably reached our apex in the 1990's, and it is all downhill from now on.
Truth be told, we have long had underlying weaknesses that were masked by the collapse of our superpowers. Even though our share of world industrial output was actually at its apex-over 40%--in the 1920's, the downfall of the British Empire, and later the Soviet Union, (not to mention some either smaller or more temporary empires such as those built by France, Germany and Japan), made us appear relatively powerful to other nation-states. In terms of population, the United States has been growing at a slower rate than the rest of the world for decades. In terms of expanding our borders, well, no respectable nation really does that anymore. In fact, in the 1990's, we went to war with both Iraq and Serbia to, at least in part, stop them from expanding their borders and annexing new territory. In terms of exporting, we have long since been surpassed as the world's top exporter, and our manufacturing industries probably are not coming back. Now, virtually the only thin we export is our culture, in the form of language, television, movies, music, fashion, and other "creative" products.
Now, with the emergence of at least two new major power centers, China and the European Union, our relative decline can no longer be masked by the even faster decline of other "great" and "super" powers. China's economy is growing much faster than our own, and their massive population positions them well for future superpower status. While the European Union's economy is not growing faster than our own, they can do something no other major power center can: keep expanding by adding new member states. With countries like Turkey and Morocco already applying for membership, it might only be a couple of decades before the European Union starts earnestly expanding into areas like Africa and Asia. It might not even be impossible for a nation like India to eventually join the European Union in less than a century. There is simply no way we can compete with that sort of potential growth. ..........(more)
The complete piece is at:
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=477
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