Peak oil - expensive food

[Mika]

Peak oil - expensive food
http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=161183186

At one time the need for more food resulted in the worldwide increase in arable land via the clearing of forests and irrigation of arid land. The land available has peaked and is decreasing because of salination of irrigated soils, diversion to bio-fuels and the growth of cities. Cheap fossil fuels allowed pumping of water for irrigation, and cheap food transport encouraged the growth of cities away from the centres of food production.

The economies of scale of large farms added to the growth of urbanisation. Cheap fossil fuels increased the ability of the farmer via mechanisation to till large areas of land, dramatically increasing the loss of top soil via water and wind erosion. Global warming, in part caused by fossil fuel use, also reduces food production yields.

Grain production in 2004 was of the order of 2 billion tonnes but with a growing and more sophisticated population production is falling short of consumption and stocks are being drawn down. The amount of crops lost to pests is increasing since immune pests are evolving faster than new pesticides can be invented. More importantly, Peak Oil, increasing demand for petroleum over-production, will make transportation, the operation of machinery and the production of petroleum-based fertilisers much more expensive, all contributing to a crisis in agriculture. Today the food production system consumes ten times the amount of fossil fuel energy as the energy in the food itself. With the coming decline in oil production, its increasing demand and its subsequent scarcity and high price, how will we be able to support the present world and regional populations?

There are two schools of thought on the way ahead - further intensification of food production via genetic engineering of new crops and animal varieties, and ecological agriculture which is criticised as being unable to feed the massive human population without chemical support. Since fossil fuels will come to an end sometime, we have to find a food production system that is much less energy intensive.

Cuban farmers were highly dependent on fuel and petrochemicals from the Soviet Union. With that country's collapse Cuba lost all of its imports and faced the same crisis in agriculture that is now before us. Malnutrition in Cuba was widespread and that country's GDP fell by 85 per cent. The Cuban authorities broke up the large state farms, distributed the land to farming families and encouraged the formation of small co-ops.

Tractors were replaced by oxen and Cuban scientists developed biological pest control methods and soil fertility enhancements. The government sponsored widespread education in organic food production and encouraged people to stay on the land by increasing earnings even above that of urban office workers. Gardens and the rearing of small animals were encouraged in the cities. Cuba's energy consumption per capita is now one twentieth of that of the US and food production has now returned to 90 per cent of its pre-crisis level.

Rest of article here.

[cliss]

1. Now there's an eye opener -

"Today the food production system consumes ten times the amount of fossil fuel energy as the energy in the food itself".

Is this possible? If this is true, the implications are staggering. It means that there is absolutely NO way we can continue to feed 6.5 billion people. In fact, we are going to see some massive starvation very soon because oil just hit a new record high today.

Agriculture is almost 100% petroleum-dependent.

[some guy]

2. Probably

I read something else that mentioned the 10 to 1 ratio - I think in the DU Peak Oil group. I think there, the estimate was between a low of 7 to 1 and a high of 10 to 1.

It was interesting to me to read that Cuba has already gone through the process, at least to some degree.

[Mika]

3. Cuba had to change to organic and local farming after the USSR went belly up.

Cuba had no access or funds to plentiful oil based energy during/after the "special period" in '94.

Cuba is now #1 in organic farming, and is making the switch to solar power and biofuels successfully. There are ongoing wind farm developments. They instituted a national plan to replace lighting to CF bulbs that has been an overwhelming success.

Most Americans have no idea of the extent of Cuba's transformation in energy usage, because the US gov bans Americans from going there to see Cuba's amazing transformation for themselves.