The Bush Democrats(20% of Dems vote Bush vs 3% gop Dean vote)

[papau]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/13/opinion/13BROO.html

OP-ED COLUMNIST
The Bush Democrats(20% of Dems vs 3% gop Dean vote)
By DAVID BROOKS


In 2000, the American electorate was evenly divided. Now, as we enter another voting season, the Gallup Organization has released a study, based on 40,000 interviews, that shows that 45.5 percent of voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and 45.2 percent identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.<snip>

Today's Republicans not only like Bush personally, they also overwhelmingly support his policies. According to a Pew Center study, 85 percent of Republicans support the war in Iraq, 82 percent believe that pre-emptive war is justified, and 72 percent believe the U.S. is justified in holding terror suspects without trial.
The Democrats, meanwhile, are divided on all these issues. According to the same Pew survey, 54 percent of Democrats oppose the war in Iraq, but 39 percent support it. Forty-four percent of Democrats oppose the pre-emptive war doctrine, but 52 percent support it. Forty-seven percent of Democrats oppose holding terror suspects without trial, but 46 percent are in favor. <snip>

This situation — Republican unity and Democratic fissures — means that the Democratic vote is less cohesive than the G.O.P. vote, at least on the presidential level. In a Bush-Dean matchup, 20 percent of Democrats would vote for Bush, according to a CBS poll, while only 3 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean. Over all, Bush leads Dean by 20 points. And in Iowa and New Hampshire, swing states where voters know both candidates well, Bush is up by significant margins.

In other words, at least at the moment, Bush has crashed through the 45/45 partisan divide. He is a polarizing figure, but there are many more people who support him than oppose him. And this support is not merely personal; it is built into the issue landscape. According to an ABC/Washington Post poll, 57 percent of Americans say they are more likely to support a candidate who supported going to war in Iraq, while only 35 percent say they would be less likely. According to Pew, 59 percent believe that the war in Iraq has helped in the broader war on terror. <snip>

[papau]

1. this ignores Dean winning blue states vs Bush

the red state win is greater - but so what?

[el_gato]

2. this guy has lost all credibility

[wryter2000]

3. LOL

I hadn't checked to see who the author was. Dream on, Brooks.

[AndyTiedye]

5. If What He Says Is True, We Can Never Win, No Matter What We Do

So we better hope he is wrong.

We certainly have reason to suspect the accuracy of the polls he cited.

[The Zanti Regent]

4. No matter what time of day it is

the Screw York Times will still kiss Bush's ass

[DrBB]

6. Never mind

On edit: thought this was an actual report. David Brooks is only slightly less reliable than Limbaugh.

Never mind.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

7. I don't trust the Gallup poll any more.

These days the poll rates G DUHbya higher than any other poll does.

In 2000 they predicted the opposite of what happened. Bush would win the popular vote but perhaps lose the electoral.

[pscot]

8. My wealthy republican brother-in-law

and the 3 guys he golfs with all voted for Bush in 2000 and all identify as republicans. They all say they won't vote for the shrub this fall. What it's worth I don't know.

[Printer70]

9. Denial is not a strategy

We must address the fact that Democrats are supporting Bush and I think the answer lies in national security. We are seen as criticizing the measures to combat terorism (ie: Patriot Act) more than we are seen as bolstering the fight against terrorism. Our argument shouldn't be: we object to these anti-terror measures, it should be, we support BETTER anti-terror measures that don't needlessly abridge civil rights. It has to be framed in a positive alternative.