by Ernest Partridge, The Crisis Papers, August 28, 2007
Partidge begins by stating that the Democratic Party has a commanding lead over the GOP in polls, and describes the public's dissatisfactions with the war, the lies that got us into the war, the economic situation - - 40 million Americans without healthcare insurance, millions more just one serious illness away from financial ruin, and personal bankrutcy no long an escape for those crushed by huge medical bills -- the public's growing realization that the last two presidential elections were stolen, etc. And then he says:
"And so, among the Democrats and their supporters, and even in the media, there is less talk of “if” the Democrats win the next election, and more talk of “when” they win.
Confidence is breaking out among the progressives, followed by its bastard child, complacency, as a Democratic sweep in 2008 appears to be inevitable. "
"
And it would be, if the usual twentieth century rules applied: honest and verifiable elections, a diverse and vigilant media, constitutional guarantees intact, and each contending party willing and prepared to concede defeat in the national election. Under those conditions, my rough and intuitive guess would be that the Democrats would have a 90% chance of retaking the White House and gaining formidable majorities in both houses of Congress."
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But twentieth century conditions do not apply. Because they don’t, and because the Democrats refuse to recognize and adapt to this fact, choosing instead to play by the old, non-operative rules, the next President will likely be a Republican. If the Democrats persist in their folly, I’d set the odds of another Republican in the White House at about four-to-one. As for the Congress, it could go either way, but whichever party wins, the majorities will be close. And, as the current Democratic Congress is making all too clear today, if the Democrats maintain control of Congress, this should be of little consequence to the succeeding GOP “unitary executive.” Acts of Congress deemed inconvenient to the President will either be vetoed, or, failing that, nullified by “signing statements,” and laws that the President cannot persuade the Congress to pass will be issued as Executive Orders. Just as they are today."
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For if the Democratic Congress refuses now to act to reclaim its Constitutionally separate powers, what reason is there to believe that it will do so if the next President is a Republican? "
He goes on to explain what Democrats must do. A key factor is to realize that both parties have moved to the right of the voters. Eric Alterman wrote “the majority of Americans have actually moved slightly leftward – leaving the center of gravity of the political system
well to the right of the public on issue after issue.”
Partridge goes on to say that Democrats should run as progressives -- not liberals because the right has so tarnished that word -- but progressives. He makes good points. If Dems want to win, they can't be complacent and they can't take the same positions the Republicans do. They also must fight back against any attacks this time, and they should fire all the consultants who've helped them lose in the past, saying that if Bob Shrum is a senior campaign adviser again, it might be a good idea to check out property in Belize.
more. . .
http://www.crisispapers.org/essays7p/complacency.htm