Iraq: The Reality Beyond Perceptions

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http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/?q=node/27018

Iraq: The Reality Beyond Perceptions
Submitted by davidswanson on Thu, 2007-09-20 21:40. Media

By Marco Vicenzino, Director, Global Strategy Project

The appearances by Ambassador Crocker and General Petraeus before the Congress marked the end of the summer lull, the return of Washington's political elite and the full-scale resumption of the Iraq debate leading to the beginning of the 2008 electoral season. The stakes remain high for both Republicans and Democrats, America's national security and standing in the world, Iraq's future, security in the Middle East and global stability.

The Congressional testimonies amount to an interim report of the "surge" prior to the presentation of the comprehensive report in the spring of 2008. For many, the Congressional testimonies provided an opportunity for President Bush to seize the political initiative on Iraq . At most, it may have created such a perception for short-term domestic political gain but in reality he lost the initiative a long time ago and in the long-term such a perception is likely to have a less than negligible impact both in Iraq and the U.S.. Iraq's future as a national entity has and will remain contingent upon inter-sectarian and intra-sectarian reconciliation, inevitably determining the course of U.S. policy.

The U.S. can establish and support a broad strategy but ultimately it will amount to muddling through in reaction to realities and events on the ground in Iraq. In addition, the enormous burden of the current operation on both US military personnel and equipment raises serious questions on long-term sustainability and implications for America's other global commitments. Overall, the US presence is largely reduced to the hope of "buying time" for Iraqis to reach a viable political accommodation and the appropriate self-sufficiency of its security forces. Sectarianism in the police force and the interior ministry has been rampant. Although the army has proven more effective, it is still not completely immune from the social and political realities of sectarianism. Whether a narrative of national unity can emerge over time remains at the least an unpredictable generational issue.

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Withdrawal

In the U.S. Congress, there appears to be a broadly emerging bipartisan consensus that the status quo is unacceptable and that withdrawal in some form is eventually inevitable. However, debate ensues when attempting to determine how, when and where withdrawal begins. The debate ranges from removal of all U.S. forces to the possibility of reducing troops to pre-surge levels by the summer of 2008. Other claims,such as the possibility that some U.S. troops may be withdrawn by year's end, simply amounts to a numbers game. Furthermore, there appears to be an increasing bipartisan shift toward a politically expedient constructive ambiguity with respect to setting a timeline for withdrawal, which is obviously in part designed for short-term political gain with an eye on the 2008 electoral season and on the other hand realization that some level of U.S. presence is inevitable for the foreseeable future. Since the establishments of both the Republican and Democratic parties appear unaware of how to best politically deal with "withdrawal", this simple term is conveniently being subjected to numerous interpretations and determined according to immediate political necessity. For any presidential or congressional candidate to declare an explicit, unequivocal position on Iraq focused primarily on the party base may help win primaries but far from guarantees victory in the general election.

For the remainder of this term, the President will continue to use the necessary rhetoric to placate the emerging bipartisan consensus and prevailing public mood for "withdrawal" but in essence he will continue to "stay the course", that is, broadly preserve the status quo, within the realm of the politically possible and realistically achievable. Reconstructing Iraq, if at all possible, will require a continued long-term investment of U.S. resources and efforts. American public support remains essential but its existence questionable. Convincing the US public of continued engagement requires leadership skills with which President Bush is currently struggling. Significant credibility issues continue to undermine his public standing and his ability to continue pursuing such an enormous undertaking. However, regardless of outcome, President Bush has arguably earned the reputation of "sticking to his guns" to the very end. He intends to do so in Iraq until his last day in power. Ultimately, it will be up to his successor, Iraq's political leaders and regional neighbors to pick up the pieces, that is, if there are any pieces left to pick up.


Marco Vicenzino is the founder and Executive Director of the Global Strategy Project and served as Deputy Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-US (IISS-US) in Washington DC. He is a graduate of Oxford University and Georgetown University Law Center and has taught International Law at the School of International Service of American University. He has provided commentary on BBC World, CNN International, CNN Spanish, Fox News and Al Jazeera and is a regular guest speaker at conferences around the world. He can be contacted at [e-mail]